WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 11:26 AM

You keep forgetting how this whole craziness begun. I faced the gallows and was trying to bring down Legate instead. The hunter-reveal was a spur of the moment ploy that would have been greatif Legate was guilty. Since he wasn't that put me and the village in a tricky spot and I deemed that keeping up the fake hunter-claim had it's advantages. If Wilwa had stayed hidden, which seemed likely for a good while, the scenario was perfect. I would not risk getting lynched, and Wilwa, who I now knew to be the hunter, wasn't suspected anyway. Now, with the present situation, we at least know that Wilwa truly is the hunter, right?

Will post more with my take on who the baddies are (at least for me the fog is beginning to lift, or so it seems)...

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 11:37 AM

Finland lost 1-2 with a goal on the very last second of the game...

So I'm not willing to lose this as well toDay.

I do have a problem with all this now. I really do. I'll check a few things and will be back shortly.

Greenie: I can tell you what you are missing - Skip threathened Zil at the last minutes yesterDay - that was his "hunter-reveal" - and Inzil made sure Skip doesn't die (at least that is what it looks like). Today he only "came open" with it.

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 12:09 PM

Okay, let me be straight with this.

So you Skip say you are an innocent who came up with this great idea of fakely threathening another player to be taken with you if you die ie. pretending to be the hunter - and you decided to pick Inzil as your target. And you did that in the last minute hassle?

Okay, even if I do find this threathening others at last minute panic as quite an odd way for an innocent to behave, I do admit that even innocents might play it rough and tough to stay alive sometimes. But if you're innocent, did it ever occur to you that Leg could be the hunter? In the worst case scenario we might have lost two innocents because of your trick.

This gives me some headache too:

Quote:

If Wilwa had stayed hidden, which seemed likely for a good while, the scenario was perfect. I would not risk getting lynched, and Wilwa, who I now knew to be the hunter, wasn't suspected anyway.

How did you "know" she was the hunter before she revealed? Some suitable hindsight to boost the cleverness of your "theory"?

Okay. I hope you see it makes perfect sense to see you as a wolf who had to make a panic-save yesterDay and after looking at how people seemed to trust wilwa realised you had good chances of facing the gallows... and needed to change tactics?

Ooops! A lot of x'posting and voting going on....

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

OBut if you're innocent, did it ever occur to you that Leg could be the hunter? In the worst case scenario we might have lost two innocents because of your trick.

I was highly suspicious of Legate already and voted him the previous day. So, no, it didn't occur to me.

Quote:

This gives me some headache too: How did you "know" she was the hunter before she revealed? Some suitable hindsight to boost the cleverness of your "theory"?

She did squirm like a worm on the hook, while all others seemed to believe me.

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 12:42 PM

It is possible both Skip and wilwa are innocents.

But I do think it more probable they are not. In that case I'd say Skip is the baddie.

To me the question becomes then: is the risk of lynching Skip worth taking?

The answer to me is: if we find a candidate that looks more like a wolf than him, then let's go. If not, then rather Skip than wilwa (Skip has already confessed he has lied and that wilwa is the hunter).

EDIT: X'd with a host once again...

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 12:48 PM

If we don't want to go with skip, Ozban still looks like a good bet to me. And his lynch could tell us something about others, perhaps, namely skip and Eönwë.

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 12:50 PM

I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them.

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:51 PM

I'm not finding anyone more likely. Only that Wilwa's vote baffles me.

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 12:20 PM

Okay, time-out for me... really.

I admit, I love this game because of these situations where the different scenarios, bluffs and all that stuff just blow your mind off. But this is just plain crazy.

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 11:53 AM

Okay here's the people left (I'm excluding me):

Wilwa
Boro
Nogrod
Greenie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Ozban
Lottie

Of those I scratch Wilwa immediately. She is the hunter I'm sure.

Boro and Nogrod have been complete question-marks for me up until now, but at present I'm willing to bet that none of them are wolves. They both seem genuine today. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that one of them have been fooling me so far, but if so, I can only applaud.

That leaves:
Greenie, Inziladun, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe.

If I'm right, only one out of those five are innocent.

Now I was impressed with Inziladun's analysis on Ozban here: #336

Inzil sharply list many of the unnerving inconsistencies in Ozban's voting and reasoning. He looks even worse to me since I know I'm innocent. Also, Inzil's choice of questioning Ozban suggests that at least they are not wolves together.

Eonwe has also voted Lottie repeatedly, and suspecting her for most of the game. Am I not right Eonwe?

This would suggest that Lottie and Eonwe aren't wolves together, especially since Lottie has been suspected rather heavily right from the start.

So between between Inzil, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe, there are probably two wolves I think. Feel best about Inzil at the moment.

Which leaves me with Greenie.

I am almost certain she is a wolf.

Please have a look at my detailed post on her earlier toDay as well. She's evil I tell you!

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

wilwarin538 · 10-12-2010, 12:03 PM

Gah, class is over early. I have to go and won't be back before DL.

So I'm going to vote

++Lottie

I know I just finished saying that I feel ok with her today, but that's only been today, I've suspected her every other day and hunted her twice. We have gotten close to lynching her more than once, and I think the fact that we've consistently suspected her means we should just go for it, there must be a reason we kept going back to her.

Good luck everyone. *crosses fingers*

x'ed with Skip, whom I still do not trust at all...

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

My english may be getting rusty, but you don't count yourself as innocent?

Actualy this whole post seems as something only a wolf would write.

I could also state my knowledge of my innocence, but realizing I have no way to convince you, I do not. You keep only repeating: "I'm innocent! I'm innocent!" Scared puppy I say.

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:14 PM

Someone stated before, that in order to prevail, we need to lynch a wolf tonight, and to do that we need all innocents to vote together.

I trust Wilwa and she voted already. Lottie would not be my first pick, but I should probably vote her, "for the sake of the crew".

What do others think?

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 12:35 PM

If Skip isn't a wolf, he's being totally absurd. His stunt makes no sense for an innocent. I'd feel most confident about lynching him, but if he's telling the truth it absolutely sucks. Of the others, I'd prefer Eonwe. I'm not really fond of trying Lottie.

EDIT: x-ed with Ozban's 386

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

No. Because you were, again, in danger of being lynched. This threw another wrench into things, and it looks like it's working - there's a lot of talk now about lynching someone else entirely. So, for a wolf, it does, in fact, make sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What pops into my mind is that Eonwe is Skip's fellow,

Wanted to mention that this theory makes a lot of sense. Not sure why else I quoted...I think there was a pressing reason at the time...

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Let me get this straight. You are an innocent who decided to pretend to be the Hunter to force me to reveal myself?!? Ya know you could have just come on this morning and said "I think the Hunter should reveal" and maybe I would have (though, probably not), but faking a reveal to make me come out? I don't appreciate that kind of manipulation, especially since the only reason I did end up revealing was cause I thought that would convince people to vote you since I assumed you were guilty. I would not have revealed otherwise.

Skip has been manipulating people a lot lately - first Zil with his baseless threat, and now you with his fake reveal. I can't see an innocent (other than tp) doing that. A wolf, maybe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

I deemed that keeping up the fake hunter-claim had it's advantages.

This did not have advantages for the village as a whole. It had advantages for you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Which leaves me with Greenie.

I am almost certain she is a wolf.

Please have a look at my detailed post on her earlier toDay as well. She's evil I tell you!

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

And the fact that she's suspected you for Days has nothing to do with it?

The underlined part is what caught my eye. It sounds forced and almost like he's a paniced wolf. Your detailed post did not convince me at all. The only thing persuasive about this persuades me that you're evil. Sorry, but I don't buy it.

EDIT: x'd since the Skip post I quoted

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

The underlined part is what caught my eye. It sounds forced and almost like he's a paniced wolf. Your detailed post did not convince me at all. The only thing persuasive about this persuades me that you're evil. Sorry, but I don't buy it.

Aye, scared puppy as I said above.

Do we have enough space left to lynch Skip? Still there's possibility of him being cobbler, this Greenie-accusation would be fitting his goals in that case.

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozban

Aye, scared puppy as I said above.

Do we have enough space left to lynch Skip? Still there's possibility of him being cobbler, this Greenie-accusation would be fitting his goals in that case.

I'd vote him. But I don't know about anyone else, and I'll be holding my vote for a while yet. Not until a minute before DL, though - that'd be chaotic and more likely than not would end up with a bad choice.

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 12:29 PM

Oh man, I just counted and that double post just does it. We're doomed now. The best we can do is match the baddies and hope to get lucky with the flip of the coin.

*gives up and leaves for the football match*

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 12:31 PM

But hey, vote Lottie, she's definitely bad to the bone!

xed with Boro and added: or Greenie but don't spread the votes

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Not a contradiction. I immediately understood that Wilwa was the hunter judging by her behaviour after my fake-reveal. That's what I mean by revealing to me. I also felt that an immediate open counter-reveal would be okay (though less preferable) as we then would get a known innocent, and I hoped that you would believe my explanation too.

This comes off as somewhat arrogant. Sorry, but yeah. I'm still wanting to lynch you. Is everyone else agreed that we absolutely will not? Because otherwise, I'm pretty sure we'll get a wolf here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Edit; xed with Wilwa and Inzil and I'm sorry for it. It's a shame we voted differently. By all means, innocent people, go for Lottie if you want to (she is very suspicious) but don't spread you votes I beg of you!

Yes, it's a shame they all decided to vote for their suspicions instead of blindly following you.

By the way, don't lynch me. I'm an ordo. Lynching me toDay would be bad. Of course you can't believe me. But I've sort of got to put it out there.

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

By the way, don't lynch me. I'm an ordo. Lynching me toDay would be bad. Of course you can't believe me. But I've sort of got to put it out there.

Yep, it requires whether I believe that or not. For as much as I've looked through the messy lynch Day 1 and have not been trusting of your involvement in it...you've definitely been more trusty than Skip. Not sure if that's much comfort though, because now Skip is looking unhinged I can't see the wolves going crazy like this when they have this game completely wrapped around their paws so far. Even if he was nearly lynched yesterday, surely the wolves wouldn't get panicky about trying to escape that situation?

I do suggest no matter his role, just pay no attention to him. If you're innocent, no offense Skip, but I think it's a well deserved ignorance. If you're the cobbler or a wolf, then good, don't want to hear what you have to say anyway.

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:36 PM

Skip... You know what. So be so good, please.

Boro your suggestion isn't that helpful, we got no idea whom to lynch, we could go with lottie, since wilwa started it, but do we want to?

I'm gonna go nuts soon!

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:39 PM

But lately has Skip been acting, as if he wanted us to lynch him, that can either be cobbler trick, or wolfish double trick to lead us into believing he's a cobb, thus to ignore him.

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozban

Boro your suggestion isn't that helpful, we got no idea whom to lynch, we could go with lottie, since wilwa started it, but do we want to?

I'm gonna go nuts soon!

That was said more out of frustration to Skip if he is really innocent. But you and me both.

I need more time and tea. Tea will be of great help. Gimme half an hour.

Edit: crossed with Ozzy

10-12-2010, 11:26 AM	#1
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	You keep forgetting how this whole craziness begun. I faced the gallows and was trying to bring down Legate instead. The hunter-reveal was a spur of the moment ploy that would have been greatif Legate was guilty. Since he wasn't that put me and the village in a tricky spot and I deemed that keeping up the fake hunter-claim had it's advantages. If Wilwa had stayed hidden, which seemed likely for a good while, the scenario was perfect. I would not risk getting lynched, and Wilwa, who I now knew to be the hunter, wasn't suspected anyway. Now, with the present situation, we at least know that Wilwa truly is the hunter, right? Will post more with my take on who the baddies are (at least for me the fog is beginning to lift, or so it seems)... __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 11:37 AM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Finland lost 1-2 with a goal on the very last second of the game... So I'm not willing to lose this as well toDay. I do have a problem with all this now. I really do. I'll check a few things and will be back shortly. Greenie: I can tell you what you are missing - Skip threathened Zil at the last minutes yesterDay - that was his "hunter-reveal" - and Inzil made sure Skip doesn't die (at least that is what it looks like). Today he only "came open" with it. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 12:42 PM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	It is possible both Skip and wilwa are innocents. But I do think it more probable they are not. In that case I'd say Skip is the baddie. To me the question becomes then: is the risk of lynching Skip worth taking? The answer to me is: if we find a candidate that looks more like a wolf than him, then let's go. If not, then rather Skip than wilwa (Skip has already confessed he has lied and that wilwa is the hunter). EDIT: X'd with a host once again... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 12:48 PM	#6
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	If we don't want to go with skip, Ozban still looks like a good bet to me. And his lynch could tell us something about others, perhaps, namely skip and Eönwë. __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

10-12-2010, 12:50 PM	#7
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them. __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-12-2010, 12:51 PM	#8
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	I'm not finding anyone more likely. Only that Wilwa's vote baffles me. __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)

10-12-2010, 12:20 PM	#9
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay, time-out for me... really. I admit, I love this game because of these situations where the different scenarios, bluffs and all that stuff just blow your mind off. But this is just plain crazy. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 11:53 AM	#10
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Okay here's the people left (I'm excluding me): Wilwa Boro Nogrod Greenie Eonwe Inziladun Ozban Lottie Of those I scratch Wilwa immediately. She is the hunter I'm sure. Boro and Nogrod have been complete question-marks for me up until now, but at present I'm willing to bet that none of them are wolves. They both seem genuine today. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that one of them have been fooling me so far, but if so, I can only applaud. That leaves: Greenie, Inziladun, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe. If I'm right, only one out of those five are innocent. Now I was impressed with Inziladun's analysis on Ozban here: #336 Inzil sharply list many of the unnerving inconsistencies in Ozban's voting and reasoning. He looks even worse to me since I know I'm innocent. Also, Inzil's choice of questioning Ozban suggests that at least they are not wolves together. Eonwe has also voted Lottie repeatedly, and suspecting her for most of the game. Am I not right Eonwe? This would suggest that Lottie and Eonwe aren't wolves together, especially since Lottie has been suspected rather heavily right from the start. So between between Inzil, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe, there are probably two wolves I think. Feel best about Inzil at the moment. Which leaves me with Greenie. I am almost certain she is a wolf. Please have a look at my detailed post on her earlier toDay as well. She's evil I tell you! I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do. __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 12:03 PM	#11
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Gah, class is over early. I have to go and won't be back before DL. So I'm going to vote ++Lottie I know I just finished saying that I feel ok with her today, but that's only been today, I've suspected her every other day and hunted her twice. We have gotten close to lynching her more than once, and I think the fact that we've consistently suspected her means we should just go for it, there must be a reason we kept going back to her. Good luck everyone. crosses fingers x'ed with Skip, whom I still do not trust at all... __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

10-12-2010, 12:14 PM	#13
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	Someone stated before, that in order to prevail, we need to lynch a wolf tonight, and to do that we need all innocents to vote together. I trust Wilwa and she voted already. Lottie would not be my first pick, but I should probably vote her, "for the sake of the crew". What do others think? __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)

10-12-2010, 12:35 PM	#14
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	If Skip isn't a wolf, he's being totally absurd. His stunt makes no sense for an innocent. I'd feel most confident about lynching him, but if he's telling the truth it absolutely sucks. Of the others, I'd prefer Eonwe. I'm not really fond of trying Lottie. EDIT: x-ed with Ozban's 386 __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 12:29 PM	#18
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Oh man, I just counted and that double post just does it. We're doomed now. The best we can do is match the baddies and hope to get lucky with the flip of the coin. gives up and leaves for the football match __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 12:31 PM	#19
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	But hey, vote Lottie, she's definitely bad to the bone! xed with Boro and added: or Greenie but don't spread the votes __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 12:36 PM	#22
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	Skip... You know what. So be so good, please. Boro your suggestion isn't that helpful, we got no idea whom to lynch, we could go with lottie, since wilwa started it, but do we want to? I'm gonna go nuts soon! __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)

10-12-2010, 12:39 PM	#23
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	But lately has Skip been acting, as if he wanted us to lynch him, that can either be cobbler trick, or wolfish double trick to lead us into believing he's a cobb, thus to ignore him. __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)