WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Eönwë]

Relatively Safe:
Skip - Well, I believe his hunter reveal.
Boromir - Though at first I thought he was evil, he seems to be becoming more and more innocent, and with the best interests of the village at heart.
Wilwarin - She always seems innocent to me at first, but after the Skip thing I'm not so sure that she really has the best interests of the village at heart.


Unsure:
Ozban - Well, he seems well acquainted with this game for newbie, and quite cunning. That said, I'm not really convinced he's evil.
Inziladun - Sleek and cunning as ever, I still am not really sure on his role, but I think we need to watch out for anything suspicious. I think I'll also try to take a closer look at him later.


Dangerous:
Loslote - Probably my greatest suspicion now.
Green - She scares me. Seems like she's trying to be genuine, but something's just a little off. Though I think her early suspicion of skip redeems her somewhat. But not enough to get her out of this category.
Nogrod - Scares me almost as much as Greenie. Almost as loud and attacking as normal Nogrod, but something seems a little more calculating than usual.

[Eönwë]

New thoughts on Wilwa:

Though I'm inlcined to believe that she genuinely does disagree with Skip's reveal for the good of the village, her talk of the true hunter (if it's not Skip) staying hidden could be a clever wolvish ploy to seem as innocent as she does, yet would also make sure that the Hunter says hidden at this point when we need xem to reveal most. But she does seem genuine. I don't know. I suppose my doubts of her innocence due to this point arise from the fact that I adisagree and don't think that what she's saying would be best for the village. That said, I've finally come to the conclusion that I think she's innocent, or at least innocent enough for me not to vote her unless something drastic happens before the end of the Day.


And I leave you now, at the end of this quadruple post.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's not that she's not thinking clearly, skip. She just disagrees on what would be best for the village. It happens pretty often, and what's best one game might not be best another game - but most players keep their general Werewolfing...for lack of a better word, ideals during every game. Take our lovely co-moddess Agan for instance. Her views about the cobbler stay pretty much constant - and get her into trouble sometimes. But if she ever advocated another view on the cobbler, we'd all know something was up.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I can actually see a very good reason for it. As a revealed Hunter, a wolf could avoid lynching and the question of why he wasn't Night-killed for at least a few Days, more than enough to win the game in this case. That said, I do believe skip, because, like Boro said, he has been acting quite like a possible gifted. And it is the time for the Hunter to step out, because having someone as a known innocent (And pretty much un-Night-killable) at this point is invaluable.

You two as well? Alrighty, I guess that's it then. Seems I'm the only one who thinks I shouldn't do this, so I'll trust that I'm missing something and go along with you guys.

I am the real Hunter. A frustrated one who is a bit stressed at being the final gifted with a role she's had only once (and failed at) and I wasn't really willing to render myself useless, but if everyone wants that then there you have it.

That's why I don't believe Skip. That's why I jumped at what I thought was a slip on his part, I was excited that I could show he was lying without actually having to reveal. But, well, he didn't slip. So here I am.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

Exactly.

I could take a look at wilwa as I have no idea of her at the moment (she looks quite innocent and reasonable most of the time, but). I can also take a look at Greenie as there shouldn't be too many posts to read and she has totally flown under my radar. Although that will take place in the afternoon.


I thought I wouldn't come back to this issue any more, but maybe one more time...

Originally Posted by wilwa

I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.

Well, obviously Skip revealed because he was facing a lynching yesterDay at the last minutes - and a hunter doesn't want to die lynched because there is a possibility he takes an innocent with him. Looking at our numbers we hardly can afford losing two innocents in one lynch.

If we had lynched Skip-hunter yesterDay (and he had taken Leg with him as he says), we'd now be 5-3 with no "known innocent" around. Or think if he'd still be hidden and we'd lynch him and he'd miss his kill - we'd be on 4-3 facing the Night and wolves would win immediately.

So I'd say he's better out in the open now.


On the other hand, I have said that I trust him because I don't see any benefit for a baddie pulling out that kind of trick. After a night slept I must say I can see one scenario though.

So, for the argument's sake, let's suppose he is a wolf in danger of lynching yesterDay. He then comes up with this brilliant idea of posing as the hunter and threathening Inzil with taking him with if he votes for him. So now he has to continue the game as the hunter. That scenario would put this odd mistake in place:

Originally Posted by Skip

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

Although I must say that it would be odd if a wolf who poses as the hunter and had the whole Night time to prepare for his act wouldn't have checked the rules concerning the hunter (although it looks pretty weird that someone being the hunter for three Days wouldn't know them...). So it's an odd mistake whichever Skip's leanings are.

Well, if Skip is only posing, the real hunter knows that and thus more or less knows that Skip is a wolf or a cobbler. Considering that - and our dire need to lynch a baddie toDay - I'd say the hunter should really think about revealing this betrayal.* Especially if s/he faces lynching.

But without a real hunter coming forwards I think we should not lynch Skip as he could take away an innocent and we do an innocent double-lynch.



* There are of course many aspects to the hunter's decision, like how sure he is of his target for the Night if he would get attacked by the wolves, how sure he is about us getting a baddie toDay without his involvement in the affairs, or does he think we're lynching someone he really thinks is innocent...


Hey, I just found an optimistic scenario! If Skip is a wolf and we lynch a wolf toDay (other than him), then the wolves try to kill the real hunter the next Night and he takes one of them with him - then we just lynch Skip toMorrow and we win!


EDIT: X'd with wilwa!!!

[Nogrod]

Well, this changes things considerably... and well, my gut reaction would be to trust wilwa actually as my theory about a baddie Skip coming up with a nice trick started to look like a believable one as I wrote it down. *needs to think*

[Nogrod]

All right. What would wilwa and the bad side accomplish if wilwa was a cobbler or a wolf and came forwards disputing Skip's reveal?

If we lynch the real hunter Skip toDay because of wilwa's fake-reveal what happens? Skip takes with him wilwa of course as not to risk an innocent dying.
- If wilwa is a wolf it will be 4-1-2 (cobbler included); so in the next morning either 3-1-2, or 4-2.
- If wilwa is the cobbler it will be 4-3 and in the next morning 3-3!!!

If we lynch a real hunter wilwa, the same maths apply ie. if Skip is a wolf we might have some fighting chances toMorrow (if they kill their cobbler during the night) but if he's the cobbler we lose automatically.

Uh-oh...

Well what would happen if we lynched one of them right?

We'd get a cobbler or a wolf. And here I think there are different probabilities between Skip and wilwa. For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.
- So with wilwa correctly lynched we'd probably be in 5-3 - and thus 4-3 the next Day, with a known innocent (Skip) with us.
How about Skip then? With him I could see also the scenario where he tries to save himself form lynching also as a wolf. So he might be either one as well (he was really facing lynching there).
- If Skip is a cobbler we make it the same as with wilwacobbler; 4-3 toMorrow + a known innocent (wilwa).
- With Skipwolf we make it to 5-1-2 in the end of the Day and thus either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow (with a known innocent wilwa).

Now the question becomes, whether we can afford to not lynch one of them or whether we can take the risk of doing that? And how confident we can be to pick the right one? The last question has a bearing to the first one to be sure.

So what are our chances if we leave them both be?

Out of 9 people left we'd have a pool of 7 possible lynchées - so every innocent would have 6 possibilities to choose - and 3 of them would be baddies (3 wolves or 2 wolves & 1 cobbler). So a 50% chance to pick a baddie.

- If we'd lynch a wolf we'd be in 5-1-2, then either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow.
- If we'd lynch a cobbler we'd be in 5-3 and then toMorrow in 4-3.
- If we'd lynch an innocent we'd be in 4-1-3 and then toMorrow in 3-1-3 or 4-3.

In this scenario one must note, that toMorrow's situation includes us having there two known persons (wilwa & Skip) of which one is the hunter and another is either a wolf or a cobbler.

Quite scary scenarios...

EDIT: X'd with Boro

EDIT2: Underlined those scenarios for toMorrow that lead to a straight wolf-win or a situation where only one wrong vote would lead to wolf-victory.

[Boromir88]

The thing is Nog, I still can't fathom a reason why a wolf would make the hunter reveal at this time. With having a significant voting advantage (and already showing the capability of controlling the lynches) I can't see them wanting to make a hunter reveal.

Which means out of wilwa or Skip, one is the hunter, the other is the cobbler who has now seen his/her opportunity to die for the wolves. I think best case, we lynch one of them today if we lynch the cobbler, we are still in a must lynch wolf scenario, but we've taken away the traitor who can follow the wolves vote (or just self-vote and let the wolves tag on).

If we lynch the hunter, because at this point my head is completely scrambles and will have to try and sort this out. I guarantee whether it Skip or wilwa, if they target the other one, they'll only find the cobbler and it's game over. Since going into the night this would make 3 wolves and 4 innocents, they make their kill and it's 3-3. So if we choose wrong and lynch the hunter, the hunter should choose someone else as a shot in dark for a wolf. But at this stage whoever the real hunter is, is going to be extremely peeved off if we wind up lynching them and probably not in any mood to help us, seeing as that would mean we've managed to lynch 2/3rds of our gifteds.

My head's going to take a break. I don't see much of a choice other than wilwa or Skip today though, even if one is most certainly the cobbler. And if we hit the cobbler, than barring the wolves doing something completely crazy and killing the hunter, we'll have a known innocent in the count and no more cobbler who can just tack on a vote with the wolves.

Edit: crossed with wilwa

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I am the real Hunter. A frustrated one who is a bit stressed at being the final gifted with a role she's had only once (and failed at) and I wasn't really willing to render myself useless, but if everyone wants that then there you have it.

Oh how so very convenient this is... *knocks head off wall brain matter splatters everywhere*

If you are the hunter who wants to use your gift so bad, we should just lynch you and let you hunt Skip, that'll put this matter to rest. Or you're a wolf trying some type of risky counter now to get us to lynch the real Hunter, Skip. I'm not sure how this benefits the wolves though, since this would just mean if we lynch Skip, you'd be the one he picks. So, cobbler? The theory being you now see an opportunity to get us to lynch the true hunter, Skip, but since you countered he would target you, the cobbler, and take you down with him, thus sealing basically the win for the wolves. Am I on to something here my lady?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Am I on to something here my lady?

No you aren't. At all. Y'all thought I should come forward, so I have.

If you lynch me I will take Skip down with me, and if he ends up being the Cobbler then we will lose. If you lynch me and I choose someone else I might get lucky and hit a wolf, but maybe I won't and an innocent could go down with me (and we lose). Basically it's riskier to lynch me. But of course you will now say "well if Skip's the real Hunter it would be risky to lynch him too", well yes, if he is the real Hunter. But he isn't, and I'm thinking that it would actually have been a smart thing for a wolf to fake reveal, knowing that we might be too scared to kill him and knowing it wouldn't be weird if he was still alive the next day, hence keeping him quite safe.

I suppose you just have to trust me. You say it would still be ok to get the Cobbler today, but a wolf would be better. Well Skip is one of them, so that's our best bet.

Not that this is much of proof, but yesterDay I decided I should start leaving hints for who I'm hunting at night, incase I were to die and no one went down with me, then my choice would be known to not be a wolf. But I only thought of it yesterDay, so if you go back and see my Legate vote there's an arrow icon, something I never use, and that was because Legate was my hunt choice at the time, and I was planning to continue with him during the Night.

And my vote Day 1 was a hint. I went on and on all day that the Hunter is only special when they die. And then I voted myself. I thought it was poetic...

x'ed with Nog

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nog

For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.

Well, you know I'm a smart wolf, so that's not a possibility. And I've been a Cobbler once and my fake reveal as a Ranger ended up keeping the real Ranger alive for 2 days and ultimately giving away one of the wolves and handing the victory over to the village. I don't think I'd ever try a fake reveal as a Cobbler, ever again, no matter how good the situation is. But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

x'ed with Boro, maybe I won't hunt Skip then, I'll hunt someone else and if y'all want to lynch me then hopefully I choose a wolf....still think it was a good idea for me to come forward? I'm not sure anymore...

[Inziladun]

Oh, bloody hell. A counter-reveal. At least it didn't come at the end of the Day.

Time to go back and look at them both.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

Basically I don't so much as to trust more or less anyone at this point... but did you read the part you quoted? I said it would be a bad move... meaning: less believable you did it (as a wolf, that is). So I don't think you are a wolf. You might be the cobbler. As could Skip. Hard to say.

In any case, as I said, if one of them is a wolf, then it is Skip as he was in dire straits last minutes in the game yesterDay - and that would be a good way to get himself clear from the situation (also as a cobbler).

Anyway. Greenie is actually going to pass by here and then I have things to do, but I'll be back later.