WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

It seems we're getting into this old discussion I haven't seen in a long time. So what is the right thing to do when the vote is more or less clear? Do you go with whom you suspect the most plain and simple whatever the result is going to be ("not being a hypocrite" even if it means that someone whom you think is more innocent than others facing the gallows in real terms will die - but you keep your own posture of integrity) or do you choose from those who are near the chopping block and pick the one you're most suspicious of - even if it isn't your number one suspect - or try to drive the lynch to save the one you think the most innocent of the probable lynchees?

Or, which is even better a question: who would like to pose as someone who is right and self-assuredly denying to take part in the lynching of an innocent? Well, only those who know the one that is going to be lynched in fact is an innocent! I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry). Ozban I'm not so sure about: an idealistic newbie or a calculating wolf? I'd lean towards the former at the moment.

And btw. Legate: I'm quite ready to admit that I did suspect Shasta and voting him with what information I had then was the most reasonable thing to do, wagon or not. I said that I don't like bandwagons, but if the wagoned one is one of the few I'd feel even little confidence in voting for, then I'll vote thus.

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

Okay, needs to take a short break... too much coming fore puzzling my mind.

EDIT: x'd with many

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have spent now quite some time with re-reading the thread, here are my conclusions about people based on yesterDay. Then I will see the posts of those who posted meanwhile (since my last post) and then go to sleep. So:

Greenie - she is somewhat, hmm, chaotic, there is very little actually from her, but it seems more like her innocent self. Also when I look at her several times remembered list of four options from yesterDay, I don't think she would post something so self-evident if she was a Wolf, it really looks like a sort of personal thought-process; a real one.

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.

Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...

Nogrod - like I said, somewhat uncomfortable with him. It is also interesting that in the beginning (post 42), he wanted to be careful about making conclusions about Shasta and Lottie, but later he basically straightaway switched into suspecting Shasta (while leaving Lottie be, saying she gets innocently lynched usually, which is true, though).

Pitchwife - I am wondering about him. I do not find him any particularly innocent, but neither particularly suspicious... one thing seems clear to me: he and Boro are not the Wolves together. Unless there is some Cobbler-signal between them in this, the matter is just very untransparent to me still. Anyway, he seems reasonable in some way... his analysis of Lottie and Shasta close to the end of yesterDay seems genuine. Certainly not my first-hand pick now or anything like that.

Skip - like I said, somewhat "riding the tidal wave". His first post repeats mostly things already said - that won't be bad by itself, but he is hardly constructive (although it's possible he doesn't have time or strength for it, but still); later he is sort of submarinish and his vote for Shasta in a kind of "who cares" manner. Lost in the crowd. Might be he just had a lot to do, but...

Glirdy - okay, here is another of our rather suspicious people. Firstly, he is agreeable ("thanks to Legate for starting the conversation and to Pitch for questioning him") and at the same time (as already hinted in the previously mentioned quote) lays down some basis for suspicion, possibly in case if later it came handy. And he does the same for Pitch too. And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie. Really, honestly?
If there is somebody really suspicious now to me, it is him.

Inzil is another peculiar person. Very, sort of, unreadable. Hard to say anything concrete about him. Mostly he says "okay, thanks, nice" to people who clarify something which they said before to him - it happened two or three times. Sort of, well, it just catches one's attention that he is doing mostly that, of all things. Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

Of Boro I can't say much. He remains a questionmark for me, which is slightly unnerving, but well - hope to see more from him in the future, this far he is in no-idea cathegory.

Similar with wilwa, with the fact that generally her actions seem innocentish to me.

Of Ozban I spoke above basically in my previous post... I think he has generally sort of good style, it just remains to be seen whether he is hiding fur behind some mask or not.

And Eönwë... his only and rather late appearence didn't say much, he could have been genuinely clueless innocent or just a Wolf who was also genuinely clueless as well, since he hasn't been around all day. So hope to see more from him still.

Now on to all those I x-ed with...

[Pitchwife]

I've been a bit under the weather all day, so I'm going to bed now and find out whether I'm going to come down with the flu or not. See you tomorrow (hopefully with a clearer head).

[Inziladun]

Firstly, hats off to the Ranger and sharp intuition.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

I haven't found anything, beyond what's already been stated: Strong suspicion and a vote for Pitch, some mild suspicion toward Greenie, and apparent trust of Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

I thought it rather evident why they were unlikely to be packmates: Lottie's vote for Shasta seemed too unnecessarily reckless to have been wolf-on-wolf.

Also, I was very curious what skip would say to explain his comment about possibly voting for Shasta and not wanting to give the reasons. That, though I didn't want to say so at the time, was another point in favor of my voting for Shasta. I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier. And skip's explanation for that comment was that he had wondered if Lottie wasn't the Seer. A disaster all way round.

x/d with Nog

[Glirdan]

Sorry I'm just waking up from having slept as I worked and have to work again so I will be absent for the better part of the Day.

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

For now I must depart and getting for work, I'll be back on afterwards and post some more and get caught up before leaving for eight hours

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

It's certainly plausible that the second interpretation is correct. But what I can't understand is Shasta's persistent targeting of Pitch, which otherwise appears inexplicable. To me, Pitch looked (and still does look) fairly good otherwise.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.

[Loslote]

First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?

Originally Posted by skip spence

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

I said repeatedly yesterDay: Total. Gut. Feeling. I thought he felt off. As it happens, I was right - he was off. Just in the wrong sort of way.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process. Bigtime failure.

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...

EDIT: xed with Zil

[Glirdan]

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

I don't know if any of that make sense to anybody else, but I've always had a hard time writing my thoughts out in coherent sentences for this game.

Originally Posted by Legate

The worst thing about the Seer-lynch yesterDay is that it was totally random (obviously, as half of village voted for him), so basically we don't even have any clear lead from the lynch.

I hate to be the one to blatantly point out the obvious, but all Day 1 lynches are completely random unless a Seer were to stupidly reveal themselves on Day 1 for one Wolf. And what do you mean, "the worst thing about the Seer-lynch"? You mean there WAS something good in lynching our Seer on Day 1? Because if there is I would very much like to hear what. I see no upside to having lynched our Seer yesterDay. Yes I know I was one of those advocating for it, but that is because I actually had suspicions of him on Day 1.

Originally Posted by Legate

Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".

I see you're point at the end. Yet he could simply be a mere innocent who did not want to join the mob. May I ask why you are more suspicious of him then say, Wilwa, who not only did the exact same thing as he, but even more so as she was the last to vote?

Originally Posted by Legate

I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay

Well that's funny because I just went back through your posts and nowhere do you mention having any form of opinion on myself and I think you only mentioned Skip once and that was asking to hear more of him in post #45

Originally Posted by Boro

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

I agree and I think this might be it:

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

Originally Posted by Skip

\Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point.

Interesting, I never thought of this possibility....But now that we know, it is quite possible that we have ourselves a Lottiewolf attempting a bluff at a Seer and had that ruined Day 1 (well, not ruined if she is a Wolf seeing as it did end up lynching the Seer). Or possibly the Cobbler. Hmmmm.....

Originally Posted by Legate

What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything...

What I find curious is that you seem to fail noticing that there were some of us who had actual suspicions of him.

Originally Posted by Legate

And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie.

If by join the bandwagon you mean I went with something that I had actually thought to be suspicious to begin with, then yeah, I guess I did that.

Originally Posted by Legate

wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

If you would like to know, I generally found more suspicion in Shasta than I did in Lottie and even posted about it with my vote. However, as it stands, I will most certainly like to look into Lottie a little more toDay (if I have the time) after yesterDay's events. But you, sir, are raising my eyebrow more and more and would also like to take a closer look at you as well.

Originally Posted by Legate

I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Okay, now to get caught up on the OTHER posts that have been made since I started writing this.

In other words, I know I've cross posted with x amount of people since my last.

EDIT: Okay I was wrong, x'ed with Zil and Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her

That was the strangest thing to me about the voting yesterday. I mean usually there's a pretty wide spread and you can be lynched with 3 or 4 votes, but that has got to be one of the biggest Day 1 bandwagons I've ever seen.

I haven't seen that type of vast majority agreement in the village, unless the Seer stepped out to reveal a wolf. Usually once someone gets 1 or 2 votes, with the close nature of Day 1 someone who doesn't agree will step up to defend and warn against a bandwagon. There was no one who did, which means either villagers took the easy vote for someone they thought was acting weird or the wolves bandwagoned the heck out of that to push Shasta as the clear lynch.

For myself, my random vote became more frustration than anything. Because when I went to do a vote count the votes were: Shasta - 3, Pitch - 1and Lottie - 1. I wasn't suspicious of any of those choices and was trying to put another name into the list. At the time my strongest suspect was Nogrod, not particularly strong reasons though. I couldn't get this image out of my head that Nog had this gigantic smirking grin on his face every time he posted. No joke about that, I just imagine him having this massive smirk across his face all Day 1. The reason I didn't vote for him is simply because I think someone is up to something doesn't mean they are necessarily evil. And with Day 1's I tend to let the people who look up to something go and do their thing, just watch them until I can figure them out, and then vote for someone who hasn't left any real impressions.

Then before I even know it Shasta's got another two votes giving him 5 and by that time I basically threw my hands up for the night. He was all but dead and buried. That's the shame about the lynch is by that point when Shasta has the 5 votes, everyone's vote after is virtually useless. I was hoping to try and add some competition and make the last voters votes mean more as they'd be faced with a more difficult choice, but before I could blink Shasta went from 3 to 5 and you can stick a phorc in him at that point.

That Day 1 would make a good psych study though, because usually once you get one dissenter those after the dissenter are more likely to dissent themselves. However, no one dissented, and without a dissenter the rocks just keep piling. Morrrre weight!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...

Oddly enough I actually believe those were your intentions. Complete and total failure on your part. I've been there and done that too though, so yeah, know the feeling.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

And that's what makes me the most wary. I mean would a seer Shasta who dreamt of a Pitchwolf continually just pile on weak, unreasoned suspicions like that on Day 1? Quite bold and reckless indeed and heck if I'd know that.

The only scenario I can come up with that would be Shasta did not dream of Pitch is something that probably would belong in Werewolf twisted lore . That is, Shasta was doing some twisted double bluff in looking like the seer, but giving a wrong clue to throw the wolves off. I mean when I try to bluff to be the seer, I pick one person for random junk reasons and if I'm right I hope the wolf is nervous enough to bite and if I'm wrong then obviously the wolves know I'm not the seer. So, with Shasta actually being the seer, in order to still look seerish but protect himself from the wolves, his continued pressing on Pitch was almost like a false clue or red herring. And that he was suspicious of Pitch, but hadn't dreamed of him and possibly telegraphing his next dream?

I want to point out that my previous post, which went through Shasta's posts was NOT a "lynch Pitch campaign." We have a dead seer, I want to try and figure out what his 1 dream was so we could get something useful from the mess. The fact still remains he only suspected Pitch for what at the time to everyone else looked like complete junk reasons. I have no clue what it means, or whether his dream was Pitch or not. That's not the purpose of my post, my purpose was to try to organize the Seer's posts into one and find out what, if any, clues were in them.

Edit: crossed with Glirdan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"

The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him, especially e.g. Pitch's questioning of his points was justified, I think (regardless of Shasta's innocence, the points he raised had objectively poor grounds), but I am more like wondering - and I said that if you have read correctly - that I thought Lottie far more suspicious, and wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

I must say now, that from the recent posts I feel a bit better about skip and Nog - the former gives a sort of believable explanation of his thoughts (an explanation less likely for a Wolf to make up, I think) and the latter's response to me sounds also rather genuine. I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Left my PC open while getting ready to sleep...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"
The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him

Okay. I think I see now what you mean. I read it differently in the beginning ("random" added to how you claimed Shasta was "in no way suspicious").

But as I think we see, the issue seems now to be what Shasta said, and did he leave any hints; did he dream of an innocent or a wolf; did he play carefully or recklessly etc.? And I think a few of us should take an independent look back there so that we could compare what people see.

Okay, off for now.