WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Ozban]

My friends, what is happening to you? Yesterday's friends turning suspicious at the first sign of danger. Shall we abandon all we were because of that damned Wolf Lord reigning these dungeons? Stand up for what you are, hold on to what we were through. Hunting wolves, we put our lives on the line many times. We relied on each other, now you seem forgeting our bonds. If there are traitors among us, we will find them, whatever the cost. But let's not accuse others without any solid evidence. "Yet hope remains while the Company is true." as Lord Felagund would say. And furthermore, I can't stand the thought of Sauron's amusement when he sees us turning on each other.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not yet convinced of my own wolvery. Not this time.

I'm not convinced either. Neither that you are WW, neither that you aren't.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wolvishly agreeable? Don't think so.

And do you really think someone would cease to suspect you because you disagree with them? Wouldn't convince me at least.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I like Oz's first post, curious to see more how she plays.

I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

Aye Legate! You just uncovered our tactical masterpiece.

[Pitchwife]

My thoughts on everyone up to now:
INNOCENT
Pitch - the unfurriest furrier you've ever seen

FEELING OK WITH
Boro - need to go through his posts at more leisure some time, but so far he looks unalarmingly Boroish to me
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter speaks words of wisdom beyond her years, and is actively engaged.
Ozban - one post (OK, two by now) which looks quite good, and besides he gets a newbie pass toDay (although he already seems to feel remarkably at home around these parts)

NO READ
Eönwë - absent
Greenie - just one post, half good sense, half "everything's possible". No idea.
Glirdan - nothing in his posts that really stood out to me, either pro or con.
Inziladun - I've given up all illusion about being able to read him. Sparse posts with good reason in them, involved in the discussion and still detached somehow, the usual Zil whatever his role. No clue.
skip - er, what?
wilwa - almost made it into the OK category, but not quite. Speaks a lot of common sense, but has no suspicions - really? I mean, come on, there's been quite a bit of discussion and controversy toDay, nothing there stood out to you?

FEELING QUEASY ABOUT
Legate - his response to my #52, second paragraph, looks fair enough, but still, he feels too vague to me, it's hard to get a grip on him, like grappling with a mollusc; makes me feel like, argh!
Nogrod - see #48, the second quote and my comment there; also calling for open suspicions but not giving any himself yet (as far as I could see); something's off there.

THERE BE A WOLF HERE?
Lottie
Shasta
These two deserve a post of their own, and I'm already x-ing with skip and Oz, so this goes out first.

[A Little Green]

I'm back! We'll see if I can keep myself awake until DL..

Originally Posted by Shasta

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

"Having a genuine-feeling tone" and "making sense" are not the same thing, not even close! Yes, Lottie's reasons for suspecting you weren't strong, but the tone in which she stated them struck me as more innocent than not.

Originally Posted by Shasticle

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Erm? You leave Lottie alone for toDay because what you suspect her for is largely what she always does - and go on to vote Pitch for being agreeable? I mean, what?


EDIT: x-ed with Glirdan

[Nogrod]

Logged in and reading: only one page but those posts are longish...

[A Little Green]

Just to remind myself of who we have in the village and how many people are snugly dozing off under my reindeer..
Boro - Eurgh. Confuses me way too much right now.
Eönwë - Haven't seen.
Glirdan - No opinion yet.
Inzil - Likewise.
Legate - Seems somehow even more wishy-washy than usual - but then again, he also seems more wishy-washy than last game when he was a wolf, so I'm not sure if that's necessarily a sign of being a Leggywolf. Cobbler?
Lottie - Another eurgh. Right now I'd guess innocent, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be wolves with Shasta.
Nerwen - Can't read her yet.
Nogrod - Hasn't infuriated me yet. Seriously though, some good points have been raised against him and since I don't really have a read on him I'd love a closer look.
Ozban - Looks sharp, which I like. That isn't to say anything about "innocent" or "wolf", though.
Pitch - Not worried about him right now. (And he's safe from my vote toDay anyway, if only for that Hegel remark. )
Shasta - Don't trust him at the moment. I'd love to hear from him before having to vote, but since he has already voted I doubt he'll return. I feel worse about him than about anyone else in the village, but then again I'm doubtful whether - just in principle - it is possible to catch a psychic Shastawolf on Day 1... In short, my head is exploding with scenarios and I'm sure it's unhealthy.
skip - Nothing alarming this far.
wilwa - Likewise.


EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Zil

Hmm. That would seem to speak against those two being wolves together, at least.

Wow, I had forgotten Lottie actually voted for him. Well, that does make them being fellows a bit more improbable. Potentially sacrificing a fellow on Day 1 just like that would seem really stupid - the gain is not worth the risk. Especially seeing as Shasta wasn't really suspected at all until Lottie brought it up.. Everything's possible, for sure, but some scenarios are highly improbable compared to others.


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

skip - Nothing alarming this far.
wilwa - Likewise.

Shouldn't this in itself be alarming?

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Boro was and is right when remarking that the personalities of different individual players determine a lot on whether the player is "Mr. Agreeable" or "Miss Confrontation". But I'd still claim that on most cases - and with most players - they tend to try and be a bit more nice when wolves. Pitch asked whether I was lecturing you guys about general WW-principles back there. Well maybe I was... so many people seem to forget that basic truth about werewolf-behaviour so often, even if they'd theoretically understand the concept.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Noggins

Shouldn't this in itself be alarming?

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Boro was and is right when remarking that the personalities of different individual players determine a lot on whether the player is "Mr. Agreeable" or "Miss Confrontation". But I'd still claim that on most cases - and with most players - they tend to try and be a bit more nice when wolves. Pitch asked whether I was lecturing you guys about general WW-principles back there. Well maybe I was... so many people seem to forget that basic truth about werewolf-behaviour so often, even if they'd theoretically understand the concept.

I'm not sure if I get your point, but if I do I think you're barking up the wrong tree here. I know that aggressive/contradictory doesn't equal wolf, or agreeable/making sense innocent. I seem to remember lecturing, in previous games, about how people vote for those who play in a different style or are aggressive, and leave the nice and slippery alone. When I say I'm not alarmed by someone, I mean that the person doesn't strike me as suspicious ("suspicious" as in "likely wolf", not "suspicious" as in "strange, contradictory, or aggressive"). Not sure if I made myself very clear, nor sure I responded to the right thing in the first place, but I hope I helped.


EDIT: x-ed with Legz

[Nogrod]

Okay. A hastily gathered "impressions-list" for now.

Most probably will not vote toDay(unless something drastic happens)

Ozban - newbie-pass, with quite a nice performance thus far
Glirdan - is kind of hypernervous when a wolf and doesn't look like that right now
Loslote -tends to get lynched early on most of the time; she seems to act suspiciously "by nature".

Eönwë - only came in, no idea as now, subject to change when he posts.

I'd lean not voting toDay at least on the possible suspicions I could have right now.

Legate of Amon Lanc - someone said he was wishy-washy (or something), I'd say he's explaining everyhing too much - and doing Legate 360's...
Boromir88 - acts a bit weird but maybe it's just this "new Boromir" we've seen in a few last games?

Total quetionmarks but would love to see more... (they have said things anyway)

Nerwen
A Little Green

Somewhat weary of or could vote...

Pitchwife - I'm a bit worried about his defencive-thoroughness, like there was a case to proof against Shasta's odd (bordering ridiculous) suspicions.
Shastanis Althreduin - makes me uneasy with his odd suspicions on Pitchie and all that jazz with Lottie (of the two I find Shasta more suspicious).

A bit anxious about these: they have been around, have posted but I still can't form an opinion on them... maybe because they haven't said anything? Prove me wrong!
skip spence
wilwarin538
Inziladun

I'd rather vote one of the last five toDay.

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Prove me wrong!

Don't really see how that's possible at this point.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Fair thought, There are quite a few "submarinish" guys out there. That's surely worth considering. Don't they have time? Or they just stay low purposefully?

Oh screw it! this is too much for my mind to analyze.

[Nogrod]

This should be right...

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Wow, I had forgotten Lottie actually voted for him. Well, that does make them being fellows a bit more improbable. Potentially sacrificing a fellow on Day 1 just like that would seem really stupid - the gain is not worth the risk. Especially seeing as Shasta wasn't really suspected at all until Lottie brought it up.. Everything's possible, for sure, but some scenarios are highly improbable compared to others.

As stupid as it would be (and I totally agree that the scenario I'm about to throw out there is highly unlikely at this stage in the game, but not unheard of), it is possible that they are doing just that.

A Lottiewolf and Shastawolf would be bold enough to throw one or the other under the bus on Day 1 if it actually came down to saving their own skin. I've been a victim of that before myself.

However, as I said, the possibility and likelihood of that being the actual case is rather slim.

I am still inclined, however, to believe that at least one of the two is a Wolf.

At this point, I am more inclined to believe it to be Shasta.

When Lottie started accusing him, he became rather defensive, but it did not seem like an innocent trying to save himself.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

It seems a little too aggressive to be an innocent trying to save himself.

Here are the next three post exchanges between him and Lottie:

Originally Posted by Lottie

Like I said, it's early in Day 1, and I'm probably wrong anyway. Total gut feeling, and I was trying to describe why...I'm hardly saying you're without question evil, just that you're my top (and only, really) suspect. As for your response, it sounds like the Wolf!Shastas I've seen before - really aggressive. As for the suspicion, you included a with it, so I didn't really pay much attention to that.

Repeat: Not solid proof that you're evil. Not even close. Complete gut feeling - but I don't trust you.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next. It doesn't work like that.

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Aggressively nonconfrontational? You don't think so?

Actually, I meant to call your response post aggressive, and the posts before that nonconfrontational. Sort of careful, then switch to defensively aggressive, that sort of thing...

Lottie also brings up the fact that he is being aggressive in his response.

Also, his accusation of Pitch at first is very playful banter.

Originally Posted by Shasta

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

Later, when he mentions his suspicions of Pitch again, he says:

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

There is no actual reasoning behind it and is okay with Nerwen (hmmmm....perhaps we've been barking up the wrong tree on who his fellow co-hort could be?)

He's gone (due to sleeping) for a few hours and when he comes back, all he has is this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Note - I'm fairly sure I'm going to have to vote in about three hours, and I won't be here for much of that time.

Nothing mentioning Pitch whatsoever.

Disappears again (although gave us the note saying he would be gone for most of it) and when he comes back he FINALLY gives some reasoning of suspecting Pitch.

Originally Posted by Shata

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

All of that was Pitch's first post of the Day, most of which seems like IC banter. Seems to me like a Shastawolf trying to latch onto an easy prey.

And then his vote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Choose well, village.

He is voting based purely off Pitch's first post without taking the time to actually go through the other posts and seeing what else Pitch had posted.

So, without further ado, I know who I am voting for:

++Shasta


I will be around till the end of Day.

EDIT X'ed with everyone since end of Page 2

[Thinlómien]

Stop posting.

Shasta has been lynched. Narration will be up in half an hour or so...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

No, no, saying I agreed with Nerwen and Shasta earlier that we shouldn't ignore the threat of the cobbler. I wasn't understanding the argument that "Well yeah, later on if the cobbler is alive he can be a real voting problem, so lets deal with it then." I was trying to say, why give the cobbler the chance to be a problem later? If someone is looking like the cobbler to me I'm going to vote for that person, believing they're the cobbler and thus someone we don't want to have around at any time.

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, given that I am not 100% concentrating, I am not entirely sure what is this sort of dialogue with Pitch supposed to be, it just seems weird, or the point gets past me. Nonetheless, let me just say, as for horrible reputation, I think most people won't mind getting a bad reputation for a while if they happen to make a great bluff which will get them to win the game... as that's the goal, after all.

I saw a chance to get a response from Pitch to see if I could figure him out. I'm glad he obliged to give me one.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.

Sorry for the mistake, and to have to disappoint you that this is actually not disappointing.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Since this is, in fact, Day 1, there are extremely few circumstances when I could have any reason that wasn't 'bunk'. Besides, I fail to see how my 'bunk'ish reasons affect my 'feeling genuine' at all. They're unrelated - I could have the best reasons in the world, but that doesn't mean I'd 'feel genuine'.

Anyway, I have to vote and run. I might be on in three hours or so, but don't count on it.

++ Shasta

Hmm. That would seem to speak against those two being wolves together, at least.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today.

As for Lottie, I seem to recall a recent circumstance where a 'contrived' Day 1 vote from her had evil intent and went horribly awry..

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

I don't think that's what Boro meant. I took it as "If we see something that looks off, we shouldn't be fussed about whether the offender might be a wolf or merely the Cobbler", which is a sentiment I obviously agree with.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I still think we should ignore the Cobbler. But basically simply because of what I said above (and what many have repeated so many times after me that I find it rather funny): we are not able to tell the Cobbler from a Wolf, usually. If there is someone suspicious, we just lynch him, and then we will know. Honestly, even when I consider my own experience, it is not common that we have so many suspects that we don't know whom to lynch first and start thinking which of them is the Cobbler and which one is Wolf.

Hmm. That didn't seem to be what you were saying before, but all right.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Boro, Ozban is a he And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

I didn't know which Ozban was either. Good to have that clarified.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

FEELING OK WITH
Boro - need to go through his posts at more leisure some time, but so far he looks unalarmingly Boroish to me
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter speaks words of wisdom beyond her years, and is actively engaged.
Ozban - one post (OK, two by now) which looks quite good, and besides he gets a newbie pass toDay (although he already seems to feel remarkably at home around these parts)

I'd agree about Ozban. He's fallen into the pattern quite nicely, considering this is his first game here.

Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.

x/d with Glirdan, Greenie, Nog, and Boro

[Nogrod]

Okay. A few people seem to be saying that I'm getting old, rusty and dumb. That might be true. But I'd also want to say that I posted a few posts in the very beginning when there were not too many posts to interact with, and then once in the afternoon when I just had time to read what had happened and had like ten minutes in my hands. So not the conditions for flaring arguments and deep insight based on actual analysis of the posting...

Also I see some of you guys have read my discussions about the cobblers and hunters in quite an innovative way (which makes me suspect you for purposefully trying to paint something black which is actually white). But it may be I have not spelled out my thoughts in a definite and clear enough manner. Anyway, I suggest we discuss those things toMorrow if we are around to do that, for I wholeheartedly agree with those who say, that even if it was a good thing to have that cobbler-discussion et al, we now have some more important things to think about, there being an hour or so time left toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Really short remarks, as I really don't have time:

I need to take a look toMorrow at those people who mostly just hang around and second others' suspicions or such. I don't recall correctly who all these people were, but I think at least Pitch to a certain extent, maybe Greenie, maybe skip? Not really sure (take this list as random attempt to remember names, I may be writing some totally unrelated name, confusing somebody with somebody else). In any case, I think there is a rather large amount of people who sort of "drift by" like this and sort of jumping on what others said (it may be genuine, just that they had the same idea, or it may not).

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...

Hmph. *looks at the post* "Short".

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and onwards

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I will just go with my initial idea.

++Loslote

Because generally she was the one who seemed to come there and back and back away from what she said in suspecting shasta etc... see my posts before.

Good Night, village... and vote well. And try to avoid any last-minute cross-voting chaos!

[skip spence]

hm, have been getting phone-calls all night, uhm Osanwe Kenta calls I mean, and never really had time for a closer look at people... Would rather see Shasta than Lottie go though...

[Pitchwife]

Lottie
So she's abandoned the cautious disclaimers and is going after Shasta in earnest - but since she said he was her only suspect, she could hardly do anything else. Her reasons are still not the best - I mean, Shasta had what, two or three very short posts when she began to suspect him; to spot a wolf on such a small basis would be a psychic masterpiece. Which actually makes me wonder whether Shasta was such an easy suspect at all - wouldn't a Lottiewolf have found more and better suspicion-fodder in the whole cobbler-discussion? Or was she just being lazy and picking an (at the time) almost-submarine?
Problem is, she does have that genuine-sounding tone, and I'd be loth to see her lynched if she's really an innocent going on gut-feeling... Argh.

Shasta
OK, I'll try not to be biased here. Standing by his suspicion of me is OK, I'll give him that (especially as he could have voted for Lottie instead). His reasons - well... to me it looks like he singled me out in the morning as an easy suspect and pretty much ignored everybody else, except when defending himself against Lottie (which includes his passing suspicion of Greenie for supporting Lottie). As for his collection of evidence, I'll leave the evaluation to you.
I don't think his defense against Lottie was overly aggressive, as she claimed. But there's this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next.

I think it should have been clear that Lottie was referring to his behaviour before and after she suspected him, and muddling that difference to make it look like the person suspecting you is contradicting herself is exactly the kind of defense I would use myself as a wolf (and have).

I'll have to think this over once more, and then vote soonish.

EDIT: x-ed from #71 onwards.

[Glirdan]

All of this continued talk about the Cobbler is starting to give poor ol' Glirdy a headache on top of this nasty cold that has seemed to take control

Okay, back to serious.

I'm thankful that Legate brought up all this Cobbler talk as it has kept people talking, as was his intention. Yet Pitch has stirred some interesting points here about our conversation starter.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

Yet this could simply be a very confused Legate....which I doubt. He is not the type of player to be confused easily. The wishy-washyness of his "Ignore the cobbler!" to his "Don't ignore the cobbler" has got me uneasy.

But I'm also rather uneasy about Pitch at the moment. His whole post defending himself against Shasta seems a little too defensive.....Yet I've suspected people of this before and it always turns out their innocent. I won't vote for PItch toDay, but will certainly be keeping an eye him.

And we have votes:

Lottie --------> Shasta
Shasta ------> Pitch

I would not put it past one of the three being a Wolf. The only question is which one.

EDIT: X'ed with Pitch