Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So if we go by this simple logic it leaves only Eönwë, Kath and Legate as two wolves and one innocent? I'd love it if it was that easy...

It would be nice... but I think what I'm really saying is not that the rest of you can't be guilty, but that any case made on any of you has to include an explanation of why you did that.

[Nerwen]

Anyway–
++Shasta for Rep

[Folwren]

So, wait..what's going to happen if we get these three people into representative spots? Are we killing three people tonigt? Isn't that Phantom's plan?

-- Foley

[Kath]

phantom, Shasta or Nerwen?

Mira would have dreamt of phantom for sure, and if he was evil she'd have made it clear.

++phantom for Rep

Sorry, voting and running toDay.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Nerwen for Rep

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Nerwen

I'd just like to say publically that I feel the worst about Legate and Lommy right now, but I won't have time to say why until about four hours until after the second half of toDay starts. Sorry, all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I went through all Greenie's posts, trying to find what she said about other people and how it might possibly help us. There are some things interesting, but generally, she seemed rather careful what she says about people, except for when she decided for heedless pursuit of somebody (like sally or partially Nerwen).

Day 1:

On first Day, she, in my opinion rather obviously sought a way to incriminate the phantom and save Lottie by picking sally out of the two. She made a list in the first half of the Day, while some players (Cel, Kath, Mira, Steve and Wilwa) haven't been around yet. Later, she seemed in a hurry and aside from her vote, she only had a large list of players whom she found "innocentish" in the second part of the Day (Lommy, Shasta, Rune, Foley and Nerwen); and then she suspected the phantom-triangle (sally, Lottie, tp).

Conclusions: depending on her tactics and on who of her mates was around, she didn't have to necessary express her opinions on each of them; but I would find it logical that she would try to make at least some of her mates look good, or at least not incriminate them (she already had Lottie for that anyway). That said, she didn't really seem to try to incriminate anybody except for the tp trio. If she put one of her mates into the list of "innocentish" people, then there are our "known innocents"; if we take them off, Rune, Lommy and Foley remain. Which is not exactly encouraging at least to me, as those folks seem rather innocent to me in general - if I was to pick, then I would say that Rune is the most likely to me to be a SoE. Might be that Greenie kept all her mates out in the "more or less nothing"-cathegory, or that they simply haven't been around yet (which means basically Steve and Kath of those who are alive).

Day 2:
Didn't want to get much into the phantom-Nerwen row. Once again she made a list of everybody, with rather dubious "I hope there are no elves here" by-the-way-comment in the "not alarming" cathegory. Aside from those she thought "innocentish" on Day 1, in this cathegory there is also me, Nog, Phantom (surprise!) and Wilwa. There is also "under the radar" cathegory (Cel, Glirdy, Kath, Mira, Steve, Zil) and "makes me bang my head against the wall" with Nerwen and Sally. She seemed to flip-flop, or respectively pretend to flip-flop on Nerwen. While once again mentioning whom she trusts, she mentioned Nog, Shasta, Rune and phantom. She quite suddenly voted Steve for Rep.

After the Reps have been chosen, she said she is happy with them all: Shasta and Foley totally and Nog, Legate and Steve "all inclined to find more innocentish than not but that I'd love to get a better feel of". Later liked Kath, more wary of Wilwa but still finding her innocent, and she told the Reps to lynch sally and "wouldn't object to lynching Cel or Mira". Wished the Reps would leave Shasta, Lommy, Wilwa and tp alone; also didn't want Rune to be lynched.

Conclusions: if Nerwen is innocent, then Greenie could have here very well just started to look for chances to incriminate somebody else beyond herself who didn't vote exactly for Lottie, or something like that, and found her for that. The biggest "move" was probably her suddenly being ok with the phantom and suddenly choosing Steve (she said she did so by following Rune's example, but never gave more explanation) while before she had him merely as "no read". I don't know if a SoE would vote for a mate so obviously and in such way, and her flip-flops on Steve seem not to have any logical reasoning behind them. Could have been that she tried to get a fellow for Rep, but then again, why so clumsily - unless e.g. on Day 1 she wanted to keep distance from him and suddenly after Lottie's death the SoE realised they need to get him there, or something... but it's just rather weird (also would depend on who would be the last SoE). But generally, she seemed to list basically everybody as either innocent or "no read" at most, and kept focusing on sally and on sally only, and flip-flopping on Nerwen. In any case, if I was to think of her general strategy, from this it seems to me that she tried to be just on good terms with everybody and not listing more or less anybody as suspicious.

Day 3:
Admits "barking at the wrong sally" for two Days, thinks tp innocent, raised some suspicion against Steve and started to have second thoughts even on some people she thought innocent before (especially Shasta and me, and suddenly switched Rune into "undecided" cathegory). Later debated among two undecided - Rune and Inzil - and two she thought innocent - Lommy and Foley - for Reps, ended up with Inzil.

Later, when being the Rep herself again, she seemed to play on all sides, considering basically all three other Reps at some point, whether she could not vote one of them, although her cases for Inzil and Rune seemed forced (and she basically discarded them herself, since she didn't have any earlier basis for them). Ended up voting Nerwen, which didn't work, as we all know.

Conclusion: Basically once again, she had people at most in the "undecided" cathegory. She didn't really suspect anybody, but she had some dubious flip-flopping remarks on just about everyone.

Overall conclusion: I think I just spent a few hours with not really getting too much out of that. There doesn't seem to be any clear pattern in Greenie's behavior, except that she tries to behave in a "politically correct" way. This way, she could easily place her fellows into any cathegory she likes and flip-flop on them as much as she wants.

Of the living players, she seemed to be "buttering up" Lommy the most - and I really wonder if she'd do that if Lommy was her fellow Wolf. Kath or even Zil would seem more likely, or Foley. She made quite interesting almost-180-changes on Steve. She said a lot about those who are on Mira's list, she supported Shasta quite strongly basically all the way, and had constant thoughts about Nerwen, in one way or another.

The name sticking the most out of the analysis, then, if I discount phantom, Shasta and Nerwen, is Steve. Even that is, however, still just one name. And the main problem I find is that I cannot find a link of two people there, like two other Wolves. In any case, this is probably it from me toDay - I am going to Rep-vote and go. And like I said, I will be around toMorrow probably only late in the evening. Just hope the Reps decide well.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, there's 10 of us, right? That means if we vote only those we spoke of, then basically three people vote for each Rep, and each Rep will have three votes, and then one of us shouldn't vote, or somebody will just have one more vote.

In either case, now the situation should be (if I counted right): Phantom is a Rep with 2, Nerwen is a Rep with 2, and Shasta has 1. I assume somebody to vote for Shasta still, and I said earlier that I prefer Nerwen anyway - and jokes aside, I'd trust her the most (and even in case we were wrong about Mira's list and there was a Wolf among these three, I find her the least likely). So basically here goes the third vote -

++Nerwen for Rep

Good night, see you later in the second half of toDay; Reps, choose well.

EDIT: x-ed with phantom