Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[A Little Green]

Right. I've had a quick look at Nerwen. This is not a proper analysis as I will not even try to report everything she's posted (that would be insane with her over sixty posts). I'm only bringing out a few points from Days 1 and 2 that I found worth notice.

Day 1: Spends most of her time questioning Lottie and phantom, mainly on the subject of phantom and whether or not it makes sense to vote him for rep. (Her almost full concentration on that issue would be eyebrow-raising if it wasn't for the fact that everyone else was doing it too.) Votes Lommy for rep.

The way phantom keeps changing his mind about what his "ploy" was supposed to accomplish (sorry, don't have time to quote now) is quite eyebrow-raising, but unless he does something impossibly Elfish, he's pretty safe from the lynch toDay (with his three votes). And Lottie is puzzling me quite a lot. But then, in the opposite corner, there is also Boro– it's true he's being strange too, though I'd want to see more of him.

Oh, and Mirandir. Her vote was weird.

What gave me a pause here are her really careful choices of words: Boro ”strange”, Lottie ”puzzling”, Mira's vote ”weird”. It would be really convenient for an elf, especially one who is a rep, to voice her suspicions in a way that enables "logical" reactions both ways; looking back on these, it would be as consistent to say "see, I suspected him/her already then!" or "I only found him/her odd, that doesn't equal suspicious." I might really be just reading too much into them though..

She then considers lynching either Boro or one of the phantom-supporters. Votes:

Arrrgh. My internet is showing signs of imminent death. So much as I'd like to chew the fat of who-knows-what-creature with my fellow politigoblins, I'm going to have to vote now.

++Boro for the lynch
++Sally for the lynch.

The vote situation at the time was as follows:
Lottie (3)
Sally (2)
so after her vote it was:
Lottie (3)
Sally (3)
Boro (1)

What interests me here is why she voted Sally instead of Lottie. She said this toDay:

For my part, I thought it would be a good idea to lynch one of them, and I didn't really care which.

If you really didn't care which, wouldn't it have made more sense to give the vote to Lottie who was on the lead, ensuring that one of them did indeed end up lynched? Of course, even with the situation she created (Lottie and Sally in a draw, Boro with two votes less - and the general atmosphere quite anti-Sally&Lottie) it looked quite probable that one of them indeed ends up lynched. Still, why not strive to make it sure if it really made no difference to her?

Day 2: Says, twice, that Izzy was the one she expected to find dead. My initial thought was that an elf would never ever say that. My second one was that a cunning one might, if only to create a sense of there being nothing to analyse in the Night-kill. Hmm. Still, I'm more inclined to find this particular comment innocentish.

She then proceeds to question phantom about his so-called Seer-reveal, and ends up having a rather long and heated argument with him about it. While I agree with her that the matter certainly needed to be discussed, the extent to which she takes it looks a bit suspicious. The elves don't want the village to analyse them. So what better a way to distract everyone than turn all attention on the phantom? Of course such a big argument is bound to draw some attention to herself as well, but in rather a safer way than the regular analysing and moderately suspecting different people.

Votes Shasta for representative. No surprises there.

On the second half of Day 2 she provides a sharp analysis on Sally, Lottie and phantom. Also analyses Wilwa:

Comments: Wilwa posts a lot without saying much; general tone of breathless gaiety is reminiscent of her wolf-style; only starts suspecting Lottie when the latter is clearly in trouble. So yeah, she might be a wolf– but surely only if Sally isn't, because otherwise voting them both would be an insane risk.

Conclusions? Nerwen has kind of slipped under my radar before this - or rather, I pay attention to her posts and actions but forget to consider her alignment and motives. Trying to do so has resulted in her getting to a "leaning evil" -category. The problem is, most of what she does would make sense as both innocent and elf. (Captain Obvious! Yay!) I hope she'll be around to answer a few questions before I need to vote, otherwise I might really be tempted to vote her.

[A Little Green]

Are any of my fellow reps around? If so, who are you considering for toDay's lynch? (I have no interest in this ending up a four-way draw or something like that.)


EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Thinlómien]

Here and happy to see the influx of comments and analyses. Folwren seems more innocent than ever, and Kath's analysis of Rune made me wary of both of them.

Originally Posted by Zil

UoUA

Uruk of Unknown Alignment?

PS. If I'm still alive toMorrow, I'm going to run a campaign myself elected as a rep for purely selfish reasons. It seems like I can't be kicked into truly concentrating on wolf-hunting unless I have to vote, which kind of sucks.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Uruk of Unknown Alignment?

Indeed.

[Folwren]

I only had time to read Greenie's post on Nerwen and in a moment I need to go help may supper...but I wanted to shoot my opinion in on the vote, seeing as Greenie is my rep -

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nerwen. Although there are shadows of doubts around here, it is potentially very dangerous to kill her.

-- Foley

[A Little Green]

Whoa. Just saw the time. I've got to be up early tomorrow which means I really really need sleep now. I was hoping to have time to analyse someone else as well and perhaps write a list of some kind - not to mention hear more thoughts from others. Unfortunately I didn't and now I don't. Inzil, since you are around, who do you want to lynch?


EDIT: x-ed with Foley

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Folwren

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nerwen. Although there are shadows of doubts around here, it is potentially very dangerous to kill her.

Hmm? I was thinking about voting for her, actually, since she is the only one I have some arguments against. I have an uneasy feeling about Inzil, but since I have nothing on him apart from that I won't vote for him. I don't want to, not without even half-decent arguments. Rune might be an option too - I'm currently very torn about him, and Kath's point about him taking up suspicions and discarding them has some merit.


EDIT: x-ed with Steve

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Whoa. Just saw the time. I've got to be up early tomorrow which means I really really need sleep now. I was hoping to have time to analyse someone else as well and perhaps write a list of some kind - not to mention hear more thoughts from others. Unfortunately I didn't and now I don't. Inzil, since you are around, who do you want to lynch?

Phantom?

Actually, I'm only half joking. I go from thinking he can't possibly be an Elf, to seeing visions of him giggling in the shadows as he surveys all the confusion he's caused.

I didn't care for Rune's rep-vote for Kath. Yes, he may not have seen where she'd said she wouldn't be around, but what concerned me more was that he didn't seem to have considered voting her until tp brought it up.

I'm going to try and look at some others before DL, but those are the ones that stand out at the moment.

x/d with Rune and Steve

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Phantom?

Actually, I'm only half joking. I go from thinking he can't possibly be an Elf, to seeing visions of him giggling in the shadows as he surveys all the confusion he's caused.

I didn't care for Rune's rep-vote for Kath. Yes, he may not have seen where she'd said she wouldn't be around, but what concerned me more was that he didn't seem to have considered voting her until tp brought it up.

I won't be voting phantom, that's a cert. He's one of the few I think I have a decent read on and he's definitely not an elf.

Rune? Like I said I'm really torn about him - he seems both really innocent and really evil at the same time. Not convinced either way.

Inzil, what do you think about Nerwen? I might want to try her, but if no one else does it's kind of a waste of a vote - and with only four of us who can vote in the first place, wasting even one vote is a big thing. Also, if no one else is in for lynching Nerwen, I'd prefer to see Rune dead than someone I have an innocent feel of.


EDIT: x-ed with Runne, yay!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Ehm I am here, sorry for missing most of today, stuff came up.

In response to Kath's post about me: It is not that I totally discard my earlier suspicions, but early in the game they are mostly based on not being able to read people and thus less substantial. Greenie I still don't know what to think of and Glirdan. . . well he Died.

I was actually quite confident that I would vote Celuien today unless somebody came up with a very good case against another person, now I am a bit at a loss.

The way Steve and Zil posts makes it hard for me to get a read on them, but is it enough for me to vote for one of them? (I will give it some more thought)

[the phantom]

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

For the lynch I would like to see the following debated-
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen
Legate

I would love to see all the Reps rank them in the order that they'd prefer, and I definitely want the candidates to emerge from this list. Given there are five suspects there has to be two that are wrong, meaning the Elves would have at least a couple of clear candidates to push.

[Eönwë]

In fact, you jumping on that is making me start to find you suspicious. In fact, maybe my phantom-Zil-Boro triangle wasn't as far-fetched as I'd first thought. Of course, Boro was innocent, but then again, he was the most vocal and outspoken of the three of you, so maybe he was just an innocent that happened to join in?

Looking at the phantom:

I've thought him innocent for most of the game, but look at these coincidences:

• Doesn't lynch vote on Day 1. He misses it even though he was the one keeping the tallies. And in addition, he is always the one who said that not voting at all was a bad idea. Admittedly, in the context it was about rep-voting, but still, phantom (the powerhungry) not voting seems a bit wrong. Seems like he's avoiding the risk of lynching an innocent (Boro), or any of the two who voted for him, because he wants support toMorrow. And also, if he is really a wolf, then voting Lottie would be a very bad move (obviously). In fact, whatever he says now, he defended the two of them for all of Day 1. Also, lynching an already-dead fellow is grounds for suspicion too, so he would've wanted to avoid that.
• Lack of a rep vote toDay. He was the one doing all the counting and stuff, yet he didn't vote. Voting Kath would've been bad, considering that she had already said she couldn't be a rep, and voting anyone with no votes would seem a throwaway vote. Giving a rep another vote would just create imbalance, which would surely cause a bit of controversy, since everyone seems to be sticking to the "two-votes-per-rep" plan these days.

Of course, other than a few other minor things, this is generally where my suspicion for phantom ends, because he hasn't done anything else to make him look guilty, and in fact many of his posts feel very innocent. Still we all know how cunning he is (or at least professes to be), so I'm sure he could be fooling us. And purposefully/mistakenly missing votes seems very uncharacteristic for phantom (though I admit for both evil or innocent phantom). But not voting (once in a while so that it's not as obvious) would probably be more advantageous for an elf. So let's assume he's evil for the purposes of this post and see how the 'scenario/model' plays out.



Moving onto Inzil and the links between the two of them next.

edit: x-ed since Lommy's list.

edit 2: formatting