WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Boromir88]

I didn't realize how late it was and I'm not going to be back until after the DL, so my vote will be coming in this post.

In response to Agan. I don't approach Day 1s with the same contempt that others do, but I have probably a much different method than what is normal. That is, I find it very hard to come up with random suspicions against anyone, everything winds up "could be doing this, or could be doing that, I have no idea about..." So, in the experimental larger games, I typically say something controversial, to get attention and people talking about me and from there I can sort out who looks evil and rotten and who doesn't. But in the straight-forward ones like this, I can't make some kind of hint about the "great and almighty Zeus" if Zeus isn't a role, ya know?

What happens is I find it far easier to figure out who I trust more, and don't want to see lynched than coming up with actual suspicions. This narrows down my list, like...ok don't want Fea, Agan, or Pitch gone today. (Note, these are all flexible at anytime. Like for instance, today I'm feeling far more trusting of Skip today than yesterday. Mostly because some of his comments, I don't know just don't look like what a wolf would think about making. Fea and Eomer haven't done anything to make me feel better about them, but they also haven't done anything to make me lose trust). I look to see who has votes. Shall the list stay at the number? Do I want to add in another name of someone I'm more suspicious of? And as you can see, the way I approach Day 1 typically winds up with me making a vote because I don't want someone lynched, more so than I DO strongly want to lynch someone. I put quotes suspects yesterday (sally, Lottie, and wilwa) because I use that term loosely. Yesterday looked like they were trying to do something, something that was off-character, but no idea whether it was for better or worse.

I'm pretty wary of all this attention being focused around the 4 TEW voters. I mean to assume that it was too lucky to have hit and one of them had to be a packmate is not necessarily right. Agan you said that I forced myself into that position by declaring earlier that I did not want Fea lynched. But you're not looking at how late that post came. If I'm a wolf with TEW, just think if how late that post came if it makes sense for a wolf to actually make it? Had I been concerned about saving, TEW or not, I wouldn't have even made that post. I would have caught up on what I missed, and made my vote earlier to not leave TEW in that situation.

You may not believe me, but Lottie is probably the most familiar one here with my wolf habits now, because of our most recent history. I saved her rear-end on Day 1, because I cast an early vote for her and made it purposefully look like a bandwagon, so the "counter save Lottie from bandwagon liberation front" would start. I guarantee, not to boast, but if I was TEWs packmate, he would not have been stuck in that situation with 5 minutes left in the DL. I would have either went ahead and pushed him in the lead to seal his death, or voted in an attempt to save him. I did neither, I held to the very last minute to make up my mind already, and got fortunate. My primary focus that last hour would have been what to do to help TEW, or myself, not writing a post about who I felt good about and not want to see lynched.

++sally

This is going to be a terrible Day 2 vote, but I've gotta be gone in 20 minutes and won't be back til after DL. Basically it boils down to I don't like the look of all her little posts hinting towards people shouldn't trust me. If you don't, and think I'm suspicious, or whatever, fine that's your choice. But The several posts of "Boro's post here is creepy." "Boro's up to something, just don't know what" look like attempts to sow distrust and suspicion. And I have to wonder why an innocent sally would be trying to do something like that. Can't think of a reason.

[A Little Green]

I didn't realize how late it was, either! And I was supposed to not be busy this week, but it seems I am after all. Well, here I am, anyway, I'll post, then vote, then go to bed.

So, a quick summary of what I think of my fellow villagers:
Agan - My gut says innocent; my logic would warn me against an Agan who doesn't annoy me at all. So I don't know.
Pitch - Mr. Agreeable is a bit less pronouncedly agreeable than the average Pitchwolf, but I don't entirely trust how easy and careful he is.
Boro - Confuses me to no end. I was about to write that I'm leaning towards thinking he's not a wolf, but then I realised I'm not. I don't like his constant "I wouldn't do this if I was a wolf" -arguments.
Sally - Another confusing one, might be worth a closer look.
Lottie - Hmm. I'm getting both good and evil vibes from her, more the latter, though. I agree that her vote was somewhat fishy.
skip - Seems genuine, I'm not worried about him right now.
Eomer - Likewise, though I could actually also see him as a wolf.. Eurgh, this game is making me paranoid.
Nerwen - Ouch. Every time I hazard a guess at her role I'm wrong. This time though I have no guesses at all. Could be anything.
Wilwa - Leaning suspicious. Her vote yesterDay is not improving her in my book. But I'm quite baffled by this thing between her and Lottie - they both look rather fishy I think, but I'm not sure if their mutual suspicion could be wolf-on-wolf.. Somehow I think it improbable that the last two wolves would want their names linked together in any way whatsoever, they need to be careful.
Fea - I'm not discarding the possibility of a happily sniggering Feawolf, but I'm not going to vote her toDay.

What have we got, then? The ones I'm least easy with are Wilwa and Lottie, but I don't think they are wolves together, so even if I'm right about one I'm probably wrong about the other.. My vote will go for one of the two toDay anyway, probably Wilwa because I've seen more of her than Lottie.

Back with my vote post soon.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

It's Lottie's that bugs me. She had done this whole 'check' system, and ended up voting for someone that had no 'checks' for anything, rather than one of the people she had given 'wolf checks' for. Here's the post:



So there were 3 of us who had a 'check' for wolf, but when she voted none of us had votes so maybe she didn't want to throw away a vote. But she seemed to really think Fea could be the cobbler, though later said she'd almost definitely not vote for her. So why vote for someone who had no 'wolf' checks, over someone who had four 'cobbler' ones? At the time she voted, voting for Fea would not have been a throwaway. Oh, I know now you're saying 'but she sealed TEWs fate, she mustn't be a wolf', but when she voted Boro had basically said he'd be voting for TEW, and I had recently said I was planning to before I changed my mind. So it could still be a wolf on wolf.

I don't know, out of the 4 votes for him, this one is the fishiest.

I didn't vote Fea for the same reason I didn't vote Agan, Boro, or Wilwa - even though they all had "wolf" checks, they also had "innocent" checks. In short, they were being noticeable.

Now, something I noticed - if TEWie thought he'd be lynched, he could well have voted his packmate to try and make whichever one survived look better. I'm not saying this makes Fea a wolf; it's a random thought that popped into my head. Or he could have been trying to deflect attention away from a packmate who was on the chopping block; but again, this could well be a random, nonsensical thought.

As for Boro, he's not acting like the Boro-wolf I've played with, and I'm inclined to trust him.

Agan posts too many words, but she seems innocent, too.

EDIT: xed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Lottie's latest makes me feel better about her, so

++ Wilwa

And now I'm really off to bed. Sweet dreams my lovelies!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Lottie's latest makes me feel better about her, so

++ Wilwa

And now I'm really off to bed. Sweet dreams my lovelies!

This feels dodgy. Also, in your previous post you had narrowed it down to Wilwa and Loslote. They both already had a vote apiece at this stage. On the face of it, this looks quite manipulative.

[Pitchwife]

Some thoughts about the rest of the votes:

Eomer -> Greenie
I've commented on this yesterDay: early vote based entirely on her first post, which was too 'obviously nice and let's get down to business'y'. Not too bad for early on Day 1.

Greenie -> Fea
for posting off-topic, too many jokes, smug tone & joking wolf-confession. Can't find fault with that, thought similar at the time.

me -> Fea(2)
I'd like to note that I'd repeatedly stated being worried by Fea 's and Agan's wolf-joking thing and in Fea's case also her not posting anything seriously game-related, so it's not like this came totally out of the blue.
It was the best I'd got at the time, and I wasn't going to drop it just because Greenie went there ahead of me (so much for 'blatant bandwagoning').

Agan -> sally
reason: ' I know I'm going to get frustrated later on if you top the post count with half your posts being jokes'.
Interesting, since in the same post she said her suspects were skip, Greenie, Eomer and me.

sally -> Pitch
for bandwagoning against Fea. See explanation above, but I must admit it was a fair reason.

wilwa -> Pitch (2)
apparently for no other reason than not wanting to spread the votes further and not wanting to lynch anybody else. If that was an attempt to save either TEW or Fea, did she think it would succeed? Shasta might very well have voted me, if he had voted at all, but both Lottie and Boro had already stated they weren't going to; would have depended on Nerwen.

Conclusion: Inconsistency between suspicions and vote in Agan's case, and wilwa could be either/or; rest looks decent for Day 1.

[skip spence]

OK, just an open query:

I'm rather new at this game and frankly, I don't see why the lynch of Wolf-warrior is so inherently fishy. Even in the hypothetical scenario that he were innocent. Because on Day 1 any judgement (barring inside knowledge the wolves and the Seer have) is bound to be highly subjective. You look at the behaviour of people and try to guess if they are acting in the interest of the village or not. Not posting much may also be a reason for suspicion as good as any other, and Boro is right in that one can also vote because you trust someone else more without necessarily suspecting the person you vote for in any particular way.

Yes, we were lucky to catch a wolf (even if there was a Seer involved) but for me it's kind of hard to see that happening any other way. Most people here (I believe) are experienced players who wouldn't make an obvious slip, so catching a wolf at that point would require a bit of luck regardless.

I'm certainly not discounting a wolf or two among the TEW-voters, or that the whole lynching is an elaborate scam, but I don't see why this lynch should be such a stand-out in that respect.

[skip spence]

To me it looked like a random yet honest vote.

Originally Posted by Agan

How can it look honest (or dishonest) when there's so little to base it on?

I dunno what to say. To me it looked like an honest guess. On Day 1 there always little to base anything on (for innocent villagers). But I'm not trusting Eomer in any way.

Originally Posted by me

If she really wanted Fea to live a vote on Elf and not Pitch would make more sense to me.

Originally Posted by Agan

But did she? If you don't have a really strong feeling about someone's role, you don't usually care that much about whether they die or not, so accusing wilwa of not saving Fea by voting the proper person seems far-fetched to me. And actually I think wilwa's reason for choosing Pitch over EW was quite decent. Yes she might be a wolf, but she could also have done it as an innocent.

I seem to remember her saying that the girls looked okay and that she could vote for either Pitch or Elf. That implies that she'd rather see Fea alive than either of these two. I could be wrong though.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nerwen: I felt like I was agreeing with everything Nerwen said, until her last post. Had she not made this post I would therefore have assumed her guilty. She makes good posts though, so whatever side she's on I want her in the village for now.

Pitch: can't get a read on him. Seems to make reasonable posts but that says nothing for his innocence or guilt. Haven't noticed him too much, really.

Wilwa: see Pitch. However, I always think the same of Wilwa so she obviously has some sort of power which prevents me from analysing her properly.

Sally: I know she always appears like a cobbler, but... I just get a feeling from her.

Lottie: need to re-read her posts, sorry. No opinion on her yet.

Greenie: don't know if it's because of my vote yesterday and I'm a stubborn fool, but she looks a bit suspicious to me. A bit too smooth, really.

skip: see Loslote. Sorry, no opinion yet.

Boro: same old Boro. No read on him but I would definitely keep him around for now because he often makes points which no-one else thinks of.

Fea: same old Fea. No read on her either. Leaning towards innocent (though if anyone could pull off lynching a packmate on the first day...)

Agan: I always, always, always suspect Aganzir. I am completely irrational so you shouldn't bother reading this post.

Eomer: pretty irrational and a no good drunkard. Lynch.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The sharp observers among you will realise all my suspicions come from hunches. I honestly think that's very unusual for me.

[skip spence]

Getting a bit tired and should probably vote soon.

Might go for Pitch for his opportunistic Fea-vote and because of a sneaking suspicion and in order to open up another alternative.

Might also go for Sally because of her odd behaviour yesterDay.

Or Wilwa for reasons already stated.

Agan is clearly evil but I'm not convinced she's assigned to that part in this game.

I'm pretty good about Boro, Lottie and Fea.

Nerwen, Greenie and Eomer I've no read on.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I've just read through all Loslote's posts and the one thing that struck me is how inoffensive she is. Even when she gets closest to pinpointing someone:

"Wilwa's looking more evil than anyone else at this point, but she's still not looking excessively so."

she's careful to soften it.

Maybe it's just your character but I'd feel a lot more comfortable with you if you were wielding a sword like a crazy person and hurling abuse at people.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Maybe it's just your character but I'd feel a lot more comfortable with you if you were wielding a sword like a crazy person and hurling abuse at people.

You know what, that is a bit odd. I've only played one game here on the downs but in that game Lottie was just that person, throwing all kinds of wild accusations all round. And in that game she was innocent and also correct on most accounts in her assessments.