WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[the phantom]

I see no reason to do a special Seer-test plan. Remember, the Seer is not just being told innocence/guilt, but the actual role! It won't take long at all for the Seer to figure out if the dreams are right, and there's no reason to set up a special kill for it, especially if you believe that you are purposefully letting someone furry live an extra day in order to have a test subject. Plus, the business that it wouldn't be proper to off him because he's gone? If you think about it, your plan is much more cruel, as you're basically deciding, "We're going to wait for Nog to come back and then lynch him. That way he has all day to experience the frustration as he kicks and thrashes in vain."

[Lalaith]

A couple of points, having read through (very quickly) what's been posted since I've been gone...
1. Yes, I now see that Hestia could have named Boro just as easily as the other Seer. My bad.
2. Could somebody please try to explain that statement of Nogrod's that I highlighted about innocents earlier today? It's been niggling me all day and I simply can't think of a reason why he said it that isn't really, really dodgy.
3. A variant on Sally's Hestia-plan that might work better and be less wasteful of innocent lives.....we could wait until either Seer actually dreams of something that confirms that they are true or false, and they could then tell us. If it is Hestia, s/he would be able to confirm if the other Seer is true or false, without naming them. If the other Seer, Hestia would then know if s/he were true or false. Then the protection racket with the Ranger/Hunter-Guardian could kick in...does that sound better?
Anyway, more later when I've gone over posts more closely.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by autume98

I think I am catching on, usually it is ok to joke around on day 1, but form your own opinions. Don't just agree with others or else it looks like a wolf hiding amongst the innocent. Gotcha!

People have commented on this before, but I had to note - this looks very suspicious. She even says that she's working out how to not look like a wolf, instead of learning how to find wolves.

Originally Posted by autume98

I just felt that his innocence proved the reason I voted for BG. Which just happens to be why people were going after me yesterDay.

It doesn't really, though. Because you see, only a wolf would know that he wasn't another wolf.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just one example of several; apparently Lottie's suspicion of Tum is based heavily on the assumption that Mac is evil. Slip? What is this? Nope, Lottie, we can't know this "look\s good" without knowing Mac's role... do you?

No, but I can say that Tum coming up with her own ideas is a refreshing change that makes me feel better about her. I would have felt better about her with very little care as to what original idea she came up with, simply because it proved she was actually thinking.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While we're on the subject– Lottie, that is a horribly confusing way to set out your analysis. I think I know why you did it that way, but honestly, I'm not surprised so many people gave up in despair.

Sorry...it made sense in my head, but looking back over it, I can really see why it wasn't a good idea.

Originally Posted by autume98

That was an illogical plan that came to me as I was typing. It wasn't a ploy. It would've been a ploy if I pushed for it. In the end I negate it. With what u pointed out I would've negate it after that too. I don't want to lynch innocents.

I am beginning to wonder about Rikae's vote. I know I made a comment about it, but the first sentence was all said in fun...nothing was meant by it. My second line was about the fact that I wasn't sure who guilty at the time. Even then I didn't deem it appropriate to throw away my vote. I would take a look at her, but I have to be at work. If no one else does before I get back then I will.

Her "I don't want to lynch innocents" sounds too much like trying to insist she's innocent. Her flip on Rikae is odd, too - especially coming right after Zil commented on her earlier position.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[wilwarin538]

About the Cupcake's plan. I think not. I'm strongly against gifted reveals, except when the Seer has a wolf or it's at a crucial part of the game where known innocents can give us the win. Day 3? No. At this point, I just hope the Seers can figure out for themselves whether they are false or not. ONLY situation I'd be good with Hestia revealing is if she realises she's false, then she could come out with being false and say one of two things: "I picked Boro, therefore the other Seer is real" or "I picked someone else whom I shall not name, and therefore they are false". That way the other one can stay hidden either way. Even then though, I'd still kind of frown upon it.

But right now? It seems unlikely that Hestia knows whether she's legit or not, so everyone should keep their mouth shut. In a game like this where there are already a bunch of people who know other's identities (Seer, Lovers, Shirriffs, Hunter-Hunter/Guardian, those Protectors, Hestia knows the Seer, and possible extra dreams if a Lover dies), if we start getting a bunch of reveals than that's just too much role knowledge going on, and it could start unbalancing the game.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

So I knew Glirdan had to have plans up his sleeves; this game has been far too simple so far. I combed through the narrations carefully, looking for clues, but there were none to be found on a special game event or secret code.

Then I started looking at his admin thread posts. Still nothing. I was becoming disheartened but I knew that if I looked hard enough I could find his plan.

And found it I did.

Now the only thing we have to figure out is what the Night loosed upon us. Half an hour clearly stands for something, but I can't decide what. Perhaps it was a play on words for "half of our" and it's meant to signify another evil lover's activation? "Hell hath no fury" and all of that? Who could this be?!?!

This whole thing just cracked me up. Cause I started reading and got all excited that my brilliant bestie still had something sneaky going on, and that it would be awesome. And then, it was just a spelling mistaking. Hehe, *hearts cupcake*.

So I get what is so strange about Tum, and the whole being excited Eonwe was innocent since it made her look better? Really weird. I don't get why Lottie seems so adament on her though, like almost overly suspicious.

I'm also not feeling great about Nog, but it seems kind of low to lynch him if he won't be around toDay.

Maybe I'll go make a list or something...

x'ed with Shasta

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

A variant on Sally's Hestia-plan that might work better and be less wasteful of innocent lives.....we could wait until either Seer actually dreams of something that confirms that they are true or false, and they could then tell us. If it is Hestia, s/he would be able to confirm if the other Seer is true or false, without naming them. If the other Seer, Hestia would then know if s/he were true or false. Then the protection racket with the Ranger/Hunter-Guardian could kick in...does that sound better?

The Hestia matter is a vexing one. I can see the attraction of Sally's plan, but others have noted some variables that cause problems.
Lalaith's idea does sound better, but carries the risk of both Seers being vulnerable to wolves until one of them gets a dream they can confirm is valid.

In other news, I thought it strange how tum was seemingly so fixated on Nog the first Day. Since he started getting suspected (and I commented on her repeatedly "agreeing" with him), she's dropped that altogether and even voted for him last Night. It rather reminds me of the way she said Mac was the most suspicious and then dropped that, only in reverse.

[Macalaure]

I'm getting uneasy about Wilwa, but I can't put my finger on why. I need to take a closer look at what she said when I get to it. Same with Inzil. And Nienna.

Seems like Sally's plan won't make the cut. Phew.
Also, I doubt a wolf (other than a very bold one) would bring forth such a plan, so Sally is most likely innocent or a non-furry lover.

Originally Posted by phantom

Now that we're three days into the game I imagine I'll normalize a bit (as far as suspecting people)

*is waiting for that to happen*

Not sure what to think about all that stuff around Autume. Have to make up my mind again. I just hope I won't have to go "who wants to vote for someone else than this poor kid?" three Days in a row...

So, yeah, I've got some work cut out for me, I guess.

[the phantom]

Reading and thinking...

Kath and Nienna are lying low (not neccessarily intentionally, but they are). I'd say there's a pelt between the two of them, due largely to the fact that I'm not seeing fur in many other places.

Inzil and Sally have not been as quiet as far as posting goes, but they've made about the same level of impression on me (before just recently). I'm not a fan of Sally's plan, and wonder if she simply wanted to know where the Seer was and wanted the Rangers to be occupied protecting the Seer so that she'd be free to kill who she wished at night. Possible Wolf there.

Nog has been different because he's both busy and fabricating. Most likely furry.

Lalaith is... Lalaith. Someone said earlier she's either innocent or a very smooth WW. Well- yeah. I've been a WW with her before. She's very smooth. I wouldn't try her first, but at the end as a desperate shot, I'd try her.

Of those that I did not name, it's probable there's a Wolf there, very possibly two, but either I don't suspect them at all or I have a reason to believe they may have a particular role and thus I don't feel comfortable putting them up for lynching at this time.

(edit: Oh, be quiet Mac, I'm busy with other stuff at the same time here. You are so needy.)

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Reading and thinking...

Kath and Nienna are lying low (not neccessarily intentionally, but they are). I'd say there's a pelt between the two of them, due largely to the fact that I'm not seeing fur in many other places.

Phantom, your logic fails me. You think that Kath or I is a wolf just because you can't see fur elsewhere? That's lovely.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'm not a fan of Sally's plan, and wonder if she simply wanted to know where the Seer was and wanted the Rangers to be occupied protecting the Seer so that she'd be free to kill who she wished at night. Possible Wolf there.

I wonder whether Sallywolf would have been so bold, though. She had to have known it probably wouldn't be that warmly received, and subjected to some scrutiny.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Nog has been different because he's both busy and fabricating. Most likely furry.

I'm quite all right with lynching Nog toDay. Or Tum. Still.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Lalaith is... Lalaith. Someone said earlier she's either innocent or a very smooth WW. Well- yeah. I've been a WW with her before. She's very smooth. I wouldn't try her first, but at the end as a desperate shot, I'd try her.

I know she can be a highly effective wolf who doesn't tend to attract suspicion, but I'm not getting much in the way of furry vibes from her at the moment.

x/d with Greenie and Nienna

[A Little Green]

Eurgh. I just realised it's getting late again and I feel very clueless. I'd love to look at Shasta but I don't think I have the time. So - I'm kind of in trouble. About who to lynch, I mean. I don't think I'll make a full list, but just quickly:

I'm disinclined to believe the wolves are among the following nine:
Lottie
Nerwen
Foley
Lalaith
Phantom
and, a bit more arguably,
Wilwa
Kath
Mira
Sally
(Though given my usual accuracy in things like this, I bet one of them is a wolf anyway. )

Which would leave four (or arguably three) wolves among the following seven:
Zil
Nienna
autume
Rikae
Shasta
Mac
Nog

Now obviously I will not vote for any of the first list. Of the second then. I could go for someone I have no idea about and who could just as well be a wolf ie. Zil, Nienna, Rikae or Shasta. (Not too keen on that since I have no arguments whatsoever against any of them - just not for them, either.) Or I could do the easy thing and vote for autume, who has done a lot of fishy stuff - but I'm not very keen on that either since pretty much all of that could be explained by her simply not getting the hang of the game quite yet. Or I could vote for one of the confusing two that I have arguments both for and against, ie. Nog or Mac. (And, surprise surprise, I'm not keen on that - especially since neither has really been around toDay.)


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil

[Nienna]

Rikae - 2.5 hours of analysis later.

29 – Mostly banter, doesn’t think much of Boro’s Zeus comment
32 – Jokes at being a wolf
69 – First post of content, explains to Foley that we don’t always need to be serious to be useful, mentions how another role will be revealed when Poseidon comes back
76 – explanation and call for Mod-god interference about lovers and their goals
80 – She mentions that the false seer can lead the village astray with false information and that that is worse than baddies being able to narrow down their potential-seer list
82 – Mentions lovers or anyone trying to save wolves can happen especially in a game like this. Also reiterates how moot the point about Romeo-Juliet lovers is concerning what happens when a partner dies
83 – Both seers are probably leaving trails
88 – Admits that she may misread seer/false seer hints
90 – Nerwen’s “Hades” comment could be leaving hints at Persephone but could just as easily be something else
100 – Converses with Phantom about his lovers talk, mentions how his way can create a suspect where there may actually be no grounds as people’s playing styles vary so much
104 – Mentions how there isn’t generally any reason for the false seer to keep quiet though maybe there is in some circumstances
108 – Thinks Nog’s idea about Seers revealing is interesting but that if there is a false reveal it may tie up a ranger
111 – Says it’s up to individuals to play as they want to. The wolves also get the same information that the village gets and there is no reason to suppose they will miss seer-hints
121 – Didn’t think that Nerwen was trying to get Persephone to pick her and that maybe Mac was trying to confuse Persephone into picking her
128 – Mentions that joking banter may contain hints too Interesting with her own joking banter which could be wolvish – see later as well
133 – Mentions that Steve joking about Dionysus could just be him having too much to drink
137 – Is most suspicious of those seeing hints everywhere than those supposedly leaving hints
142 – Didn’t know Steve’s age and thinks we can just lynch the cursed after they are turned
145 – If Steve is the cursed then he helped the village without knowing it because the wolves wouldn’t pick him now anyway
158 – On Boro’s Zeus-hints: Phantom started it, and Lal kept it going – wonders about Phantom’s intentions in that were
179 – “allied to Zeus” could mean wolf’s lover but she doesn’t think that’s what Boro meant
194 – Doesn’t think that Mac is a lover just because he was suspicious of Boro being a lover
198 – Thinks because the narration will say when the cursed is turned there is no reason to lynch Steve now. Doesn’t want to vote BG because she hasn’t really shown she’s a wolf but she may vote for her because of not participating. Other suspects include Nerwen (though she thinks her suspicion might be based on IC banter and nothing else), Phantom but he hasn’t explained himself and it would be a throwaway, and Wilwa for trying to stir up suspicion about Boro but still keeping her hands clean (also thinks that would be a throwaway)
213 – Admits it must be frustrating for BG but says she has to participate more or why bother. Won’t vote BG (too harsh) or Steve (hasn’t had time to explain himself). Votes Phantom because it should happen more on Day Ones. This doesn’t actually bother me at all… she suspected Phantom a little bit and it seems like as reasonable for a Day One vote as any other
223 – Says she always defends Mac even when they aren’t on the same side

Day 2

334 – Thinks Boro must have coupled his Seer-hints with correct suspicion (accidental or not) as he was killed. Boro also could have coupled Seer and Hunter hints so maybe he didn’t point to a baddie at all and the wolves called his bluff… or he could be the false seer
336 – Mentions it’s weird that Nerwen argued her and Mac weren’t wolf-on-wolf when that’s not even what Nog said
345 – Torn about Mac’s wording about “frustrating to be alone”… chalks it up to second language
350 – Says she knows what Phantom is up to and is more concerned about Nerwen. Doesn’t like people picking on her “sweetie” so much, calls him sweetie again in an edit to the post interesting use of pet names which as I’ve mentioned I don’t believe I’ve seen before…maybe her being playful, maybe not
352 – Now wondering where all the Steve-is-not-the-cursed stuff is coming from, leaning toward Phantom being Zeus and that being what Boro dreamed
354 – Still thinks Phantom is Zeus but not that he should be lynched, it’s debatable anyway
378 – After re-reading Mac’s “frustrating” comment she is pretty sure it is because of English being his second language
412 – Explains that Nerwen was probably talking about Hades the place not the person
467 – Wants to look at the Inzil/Tum stuff and Tum’s voting of BG after finding her innocent
474 – Doesn’t buy Tum being a wolf, doesn’t buy Mac being a wolf, doesn’t buy Steve being a wolf. Votes herself saying that she is the “wolviest wolf that ever howled at the moon” This is the second time she joked at being a wolf and on Day Two when voting matters a little more
485 – More fake (?) lover banter with Mac
526 – Doesn’t like the last minute scrambling for a random lynch candidate
529 – Thinks Mac is behind the lynch-someone-not-Steve business so now she wonders if maybe it would be wise to lynch him

Day 3

593 – Has some problems with Lottie’s Tum-analysis, doesn’t think Sally’s Hestia plan is best, she doesn’t approve of bandwagons
602 – Doesn’t want to get lynched with chat-speak
608 – Sadly doesn’t have any assassination power

Conclusions: Generally she has been very helpful and even reprimanding to the village where it is needed. She's been logical and consistent. The only thing that worries me a tiny bit is her joking about being a wolf. I don’t think she is a wolf but it is interesting. She is also very flippant about her own lynching which leads me to think that maybe she doesn’t have one of the more important roles... maybe a lover (with all the lover banter) which could mean she can have assassination powers later.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

2. Could somebody please try to explain that statement of Nogrod's that I highlighted about innocents earlier today? It's been niggling me all day and I simply can't think of a reason why he said it that isn't really, really dodgy.

Reading here... Do you mean the lynchings?

Easy.

On D1 it was between Beigei and Eonwë - both known innocents.

On D2 it was Eonwë (a known innocent to all) and me (I know I'm innocent).

So in the end no wolf has ever been even close to the gallows - and that's quite a disheartening fact. And we need to change that.

(And to bore you... yes, I know you won't trust me by my word of it, like I've said like ten times already, but I'll be the one who says "I told you so" in the end - believe it or not).