WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Pitchwife]

So Eomer had a secret role? That sort of fits... Somehow he felt rather non-ordoish to me yesterDay; I even wondered whether his early unrelenting demand to have BG 'strung up' could be an exceptionally blatant Seer-hint and was worried whether I was putting too much pressure on him to explain himself.

But since Eomer's role is now revealed as 'Bounty Hunter', maybe he got a Hunter kill and took sally with him? That's the only other other explanation for her death I can think of, apart from her being killed by the other secret role. Doesn't fit the narration, however, where it seems she was killed by an unidentified figure after Eomer's own death... so probably not.

(Speaking of sally: yeah, I was wrong about her. That happens.)

About that Seer-wagon: having read the last game, I see how her behaviour could have been seen as repeating her wolvish preincarnation, and honestly I'm not sure how I would have reacted to it myself if I'd been around to vote, but I find it noteworthy how everybody (that is, Izzy, Shasta, Noia and Zil) jumped on her blunder like wolves on a tasty bit of lynch-meat, without even considering the possibility that she'd just made a noobish mistake.

Looking at it chronologically (leaving out the bits about vote formatting and patterns; numbers of vote posts bolded):
#69 BG's list, with Lottie as 'relatively innocent'
#72 BG votes Lottie for 'pushing people to vote' (which was a very poor reason indeed)
#73 Lottie points out that BG's 'voting for an innocent'
#74 Izzy votes BG for incongruency between list and vote
#76 BG doesn't get what she's done wrong
#77 Zil: BG's reasoning 'beyond poor'
#78 Shasta explains why BG's reasoning is bad and votes her
#80 Lottie replies to Izzy's #74 that she'd 'forgotten' the incongruency (so I take it that her earlier 'voting an innocent' was not referring to BG's list?)
#81 BG realizes her mistake
#82 Izzy rubs BG's nose in her blunder.
#83 Shasta likewise.
#86 Shasta asks whether BG's #81 was a confession.
#88 Lottie echoes Shasta.
#90 BG tries to explain her error
#92 Izzy doesn't get how BG could have done that by mistake
#93 Shasta echoes Izzy
#94 Lottie likewise
#95 BG further tries to explain herself
#97 Lottie doesn't get BG's explanation
#98 Shasta points out why BG's explanation doesn't fit
#99 Noia votes BG for her Lottie vote and suspecting Eomer after laughing him off as crazy earlier.
#100 wilwa explains how she thinks BG's mistake could have happened
#102 BG doesn't get why nobody gets her explanation
#103 Lottie thinks wilwa's explanation doesn't make sense
#104 Zil votes BG (no reason given, but see his #77)
#105 Noia concurs with Lottie about wilwa's explanation
#106 Lottie replies to BG's #102, still doesn't get it
#107 Shasta explains why he's not satisfied with BG's explanation
#108 wilwa gets what BG's saying, votes sally (2), didn't count.

Reasons given for voting BG:
Izzy - mismatch between list and vote (#74), and that's it; her following posts just repeat the point.
Shasta - BG's reason for Lottie vote (#78) plus the mismatch (#83 and following).
Noia - BG's reason for Lottie vote, her flip-flopping about Eomer plus the mismatch (#99).
Zil - no reason given in vote post, but disapproved of BG's reason for Lottie vote earlier (#77).

Judging from the reasoning, Noia looks best, making the most points against BG, followed by Shasta, whereas Izzy merely jumped on BG's list/vote blunder, and Zil didn't fully explain himself at the time.

Judging from the chronology, it looks like Shasta and Noia picked up Izzy's vote and turned it into a full-fledged wagon, with Zil nailing the coffin (ejection pod, whatever) shut. But note that Shasta's vote x-ed with Izzy's, so he wasn't actually wagoning and looks better than Noia and Zil in that respect.

Sorry if that was a bit repetitive, but I had to get it straight for myself. Need to mull it over now and see how my impressions of everybody apart from their voting resonate with it.

EDIT: corrected typo.

[Pitchwife]

Votes other than for BG:

#50 sally votes herself (not highlighted, didn't count). (For the record, winty, that post came right after my list in which I had her as trusted, and her only earlier post was typical sally early IC banter, so I had no reason to distrust her at the time.) With hindsight, obviously a morphish camouflage manœuver.

#53 Eomer votes Noia(not highlighted, didn't count):

Just sort of showed up and left and didn't contribute anything other than demanding I cease my openly meaningless case against Blind Guardian. A bit easy, methinks.

OK, Noia apparently was busy in RL, but I agree about the 'bit easy' (see my #49 list).

#67 Lottie votes me for 'feeling off' = being Mr Agreeable. (How come I 'feel off' for that when I'm suspected for it in every other game?) Her preceding list had me under 'squeamish' and wilwa under 'most suspicious', but her attitude here looks confident and ready to defend her vote (which I'd like to see her do!), therefore rather innocentish.

#72 BG votes Lottie (see above).

#108 wilwa votes sally (2; after DL, didn't count), having earlier said that

Sally's self vote is weird, but so sally-ish that it's not really all that suspicious.

Four people hadn't voted yet, but given the timing, I have to agree that it does look like a safe morph-on-morph.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I still don't understand that. In my opinion, this looks a lot like a wolf holding herself out of the incriminating bandwaggoning-against-someone-she-knew-to-be-innocent.



She actually said she didn't suspect Sally above. By this point it was pretty clear that BeiGe was going to die, so this was a pretty risk-free bit of wolf-on-wolf (if it was wolf-on-wolf).

Ok. YesterDay was so frustrating for me. I completely understood what BG was trying to say, I think she honestly put Lottie's name there by accident (the exclamation mark makes it so obvious, Lottie had put that there, why would BG? it was a copy-paste mistake). So I showed up, exhausted after 9 hours of work, and honestly didn't have too much to go on (it was a pretty slow day). BG did originally look suspicious until she explained her mistake then there was no way I was going to vote for her.

I didn't really have too many other options. No Sally wasn't really that suspicious, but she was moreso then anyone else from what I could see. If I had voted BG I would like a bandwagonner taking the safe way out. But I didn't, and now I look bad for happening to vote a wolf (uhm, hello? I voted the wolf, not the Seer). My goodness, no matter who I vote Day 1 I always look bad, I swear it's a conspiracy.

*breathes*

I just needed to vent all that. Now I have to go to Church. I'll be back later and have lots of time to participate.

[Pitchwife]

Finally, a look at Eomer's death.
Here's his list in #47 (neglecting the obviously joking references to those who hadn't shown up yet; known morphs bolded, known innocents underlined):

Originally Posted by BountyHunter of the Rohirrim

Inziladun – very suspicious, though makes more points than most. Keep for now.

Paranoia –very suspicious. Didn't like my baseless accusation of Blind Guardian but was happy enough shouting at Rikae.

Sally – suspicious. I would probably lynch her.

Pitchwife – suspicious, but makes some fair points. Keep alive now, lynch later.

Blind Guardian – offers nothing so far. Probably has an evil secret and is scared of letting it slip. Lynch her.

Loslote – keep alive. She seems decent enough so far.

[...]

Wilwa - I like Wilwa. She can stay.

[...]

Rikae- benefit of the doubt so far but she's pretty suspicious as usual.

So his top suspects were (in order of ranking):
- Zil ('very' suspicious')
- Noia ('very suspicious')
- sally ('suspicious')
- Pitch ('suspicious')
[- BG, known innocent]
followed with a long distance by
- Rikae ('pretty suspicious as usual')
.
He was not suspicious of:
- Lottie ('seems decent enough')
- wilwa ('I like her, she can stay').

We know he was right about sally, and if there was another morph among his top suspects, I can see the morphs panicking and deciding to get rid of him ASAP. They may also have thought him a possible Agent - not the Telepath, obviously, but either Assassin or Defender.

On the other hand, it would have made sense for either a Lottiemorph or a wilworph to kill him, as it would leave no trail no them and possibly frame one of his top suspects in the process; in this case, I'm inclined to think wilwa, there's more other points against her.

On the third hand, it could have been both these reasons, depending on the composition of the morph pack. That's what I see as most likely.

EDIT: x-ed with wilwa and the Captain (thanks for the clarification).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

So Eomer had a secret role? That sort of fits... Somehow he felt rather non-ordoish to me yesterDay; I even wondered whether his early unrelenting demand to have BG 'strung up' could be an exceptionally blatant Seer-hint and was worried whether I was putting too much pressure on him to explain himself.

I started thinking that too: that Eomer had been hinting he was the Telepath and was telling us he had his first wolf. It seemed less likely after he laughed it off saying he just wanted to get people talking, but that came back to my mind when BG started unraveling at the end of Day 1.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

About that Seer-wagon: having read the last game, I see how her behaviour could have been seen as repeating her wolvish preincarnation, and honestly I'm not sure how I would have reacted to it myself if I'd been around to vote, but I find it noteworthy how everybody (that is, Izzy, Shasta, Noia and Zil) jumped on her blunder like wolves on a tasty bit of lynch-meat, without even considering the possibility that she'd just made a noobish mistake.

I can't speak for eveyone else, but I considered it. My other candidate was Sally for her self-vote, and I put off voting as long as I could trying to make up my mind. In the end, it was mainly BG's reactions to her mistake ("Oh crud", for example) that looked so much like the WolfG I remembered and the fact that I didn't think there was any way Sally could get lynched at that point, that got me to vote BG.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I started thinking that too: that Eomer had been hinting he was the Telepath and was telling us he had his first wolf. It seemed less likely after he laughed it off saying he just wanted to get people talking, but that came back to my mind when BG started unraveling at the end of Day


I can't speak for eveyone else, but I considered it. My other candidate was Sally for her self-vote, and I put off voting as long as I could trying to make up my mind. In the end, it was mainly BG's reactions to her mistake ("Oh crud", for example) that looked so much like the WolfG I remembered and the fact that I didn't think there was any way Sally could get lynched at that point, that got me to vote BG.

I remember you also had 'reservations' about Eomer in your #68, but if you thought he might be the Telepath that explains why you didn't pursue them further.
And I've noted the timing of your vote. I think wolves would be more likely to hide in the middle of a bandwagon than give an innocent the first or last vote (unless it's a bold Nerwolf), so that would speak in favour of you and Izzy and rather against Shasta and Noia.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But since Eomer's role is now revealed as 'Bounty Hunter', maybe he got a Hunter kill and took sally with him? That's the only other other explanation for her death I can think of, apart from her being killed by the other secret role. Doesn't fit the narration, however, where it seems she was killed by an unidentified figure after Eomer's own death... so probably not.

Your deceased Captain wishes you to know that her narrations, apart from being outstanding gems of the literary art, are also highly informative.

In other words, if Morphisaloser2005 and Eomer of the Bounty Hunters had killed one another in the standard way, I'd have said so.

[Isabellkya]

There isn't ever a guarantee that someone will explain one of their actions before the DL. I needed to vote, and she did a scummy slip up. So I didn't particularly see a need to wait for her to explain. Had I waited, her explanation that she gave still would've had me voting for her.

Oh I agree. I'm sure there was at least one morph on the BG train.
I never suggested ignoring it, or blaming it on BG. The way you posted about it - came off as very opportunistic. 'I'm not sure how I would've responded... BUT everyone who did vote for her "jumped on her blunder like wolves on a tasty bit of lynch-meat, without even considering the possibility that she'd just made a noobish mistake."'.

How can you honestly say that no one considered alternate possibilities? I was under the impression that people were capable of thinking in their heads. I also don't think this is twitter - where we need to record every thought/action we ever do. xD

The only other possibility that I thought really - was that she could've been the seer; false saying Loslote was innocent, then voting her. To draw attention towards her vote.... since they can't reveal. However I ruled her out as too new to pull off something like that... especially with less than five posts in between.


Again. I did not vote BG because of previous game behavior. K. Thanks. I've seen this said more than once - that I voted for her because of last game. This is the second (going to be third) time I think I even said it - I did not vote her because of previous game behavior.

If there is a WereBear thing out there... then you can't entirely rule people out because together as morphs they don't make sense. But.. bear/wolf.. different teams.


X'd with Dun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't really get what you mean there. It bothers you that I asked Para why he was so certain we'd know BG's role soon?

Yes. At that point, the only reason I could see for Noia to say that would be a Seer-Noia hinting, and given that, it bothers me that you immediately drew attention to it, something an innocent shouldn't do.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Yes. At that point, the only reason I could see for Noia to say that would be a Seer-Noia hinting, and given that, it bothers me that you immediately drew attention to it, something an innocent shouldn't do.

Seeing that Eomer looked to me like the one dropping Seer hints, the thought that Para could have been doing so never crossed my mind.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Seeing that Eomer looked to me like the one dropping Seer hints, the thought that Para could have been doing so never crossed my mind.

And you drew attention to those, too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Bah, do I want to even bother trying to catch up to Lottie's post count?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And you drew attention to those, too.

True enough. But who could possibly have missed them?

[Isabellkya]

Oh dear Pitch. You are quite funny.

Apparently, I am failing to see what you saw Wilwa. I know that BG copied Loslote's list; and rearranged the order. Hence why the exclamation point would be there.. she copied it. Yet in Loslote's list, she had herself under 'most innocent'. BG moved her(Loslote) to 'relatively innocent'. When I asked her about it - she said that she merely moved Loslote's name down, and retyped 'relatively uninnocentish' - which isn't even a category on either list. After of course saying she had copied/pasted Loslote's name under there. She also claimed that she didn't want to copy it in the first place. So honestly, her explanation of her actions.. made her look scummier - rather than clarify the 'mistake'.

I am not talking about fabrication in regards to BG copy/pasting Loslote's list. I am talking about fabrication in the fact the she listed Loslote under 'relatively innocent' then voted for her a handful of posts later.

I don't like how Wilwa is more than once, pushing how she voted for Sally.

I really do not like how Wilwa seems to be trying to put her vote somewhere where it will be effective. As in, she is looking for someone to lynch.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I'm not going to vote for Inzil, because I have the feeling no one will go along with that. Ditto for Lottie and Shasta. So I'll go with my fourth option, though I wasn't originally planning on voting him, I'm willing to since I do find him suspicious and I'd rather not waste my vote toDay.