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05-05-2010, 04:11 PM
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Beloved Shadow
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: The Stadium
Posts: 5,971
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tournament scoring leaders after group play...
PHANTASY POINTS
22
GOALS 4
ASSISTS 4
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05-06-2010, 03:35 PM
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
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The AKM's account on the first qualifying round
Quote:
A1 Vinyamar – H2 Dol Guldur Vinyamar 5-1 7 33(16) – 19(8) 87,5% Dol Guldur 8-8 6 43(25) – 45(24) 66,7% Dol Guldur, one of the most attacking and most efficient teams of the tournament is facing Vinyamar which has the best defence with Rôg, one of the best goalies so far. So a thriller? It is clear Vinyamar hasn’t yet faced a team of Dol Guldur’s caliber and thus the stats might be a bit misleading. But sure it will not be a walk in the park to Dol Guldur either. The longer the Ulmo led defences can hold against the tidalwave (sic!) of the Witch King, Bolg and Khamûl the better chances they will have. Even if Dol Guldur defences have been quite vulnerable when looked at the statistics (actually one of the worst) one needs to remember they have been playing against teams like Tirion and Havens (compared to Ithilien and Beleriand faced by Vinyamar). So especially Penlod and Tuor need to step up their game if they wish to score. A big question also is whether Oropher can rise to the occasion. Thus far he has been a bit insecure and has the worst saving percentage of the qualified teams. The AKM odds: Vinyamar 40% - Dol Guldur 60% B1 BarrowDowns – G2 Gondor B-Downs 8-4 7 41(21) – 25(14) 71,4% Gondor 4-2 7 33(15) – 36(15) 86,7% The Barrow-Downs really knows how to score and Romendacil of Gondor how to deny the efforts of the opposing team. So on the first look it seems like a game of BD forwards (and attacking midfield) against Romendacil. And a lot will depend on the outcome of that fight. Thus far Romendacil has let in one shot from 7-8 shots against him (Gondor has allowed five shots on target per game thus far), but the BD has needed less than three shots on target to score (and they’ve produced seven shots on goal per game on average). A factor against Gondor might be that they have gained their defensive stats against teams like Wold and Doriath, but to be fair one needs to add that BD’s former opposition of Breeland and Gorgoroth aren’t exactly the prime defending teams either. So there clearly is some air in both stats. Gondor’s draw with Gondolin (even if the outcome of the match was insignificant to both teams) is something on behalf of Gondor defences though. Eomerwarg’s mood is also a factor: when he plays it cool he can take practically every shot but when he has a bad day even easy shots may go in. On the other side Eldacar and Mardil need to find a new gear if Gondor wishes to win for one doesn’t win BD with one goal and it’s hard to see the BD to settle with anything less than two… The AKM odds: BarrowDowns 70% - Gondor 30% C1 Mithrim – F2 Bywater Mithrim 8-1 9 45(25) – 21(8) 87,5% Bywater 4-3 4 25(13) – 32(15) 80% Unless Gandalf and Saruman start to use magic – and are allowed to do that – there should be no question about the winner of this match. The cynics say Bywater got this far only with the help of team Valimar who decided to win them only 1-0 and who then outscored Thangorodrim just enough to kick them out of the tournament and thus made Bywater to qualify. But in a game against Mithrim the Valar have no say – and Mithrim clearly is one of the safest bets to reach the finals (playing in this easier side as they are). Bywater is not a bad team and Cotton has stepped up her level as the tournament has gotten further. But looking at the power in the front of Mithrim’s attack with Húrin, Beleg and Túrin, or the defence organised by brothers Curufin and Celegorm, or the goal tended by Huan… it’s hard to see Bywater shaking the odds. And as said earlier, it’s also hard to see team Mithrim falling victim to vanity or pride, especially in a play-off situation. The AKM odds: Mithrim 95% - Bywater 5% D1 Eithel Sirion – E2 Numenor Eithel Sirion 7-1 9 42(22) – 22(10) 90% Numenor 3-2 4 39(19) – 26(11) 81,8% This is one of the hardest matches to predict. Eithel Sirion was impressive in the friendlies (they beat Mithrim and Barad Dûr!) and they simply packed their group. But what is the worth of those friendlies now as the teams play it for real? How much does it tell of a team that they can beat teams like Dale, Rohan and Gelion? On the other hand it is clear Numenor has a scoring problem and enough has been talked about it. But they have been getting into shape during the tournament and their last game against the tough Utumno team coud be said to have given one a glimpse of what the team is cabable of, not to say that experience says one should never underestimate a Numenorian team as they seem to rise their level the higher the stakes are. Balancing the stats somewhat actually makes the quite even stats to look almost better for Numenor, except for the scoring-issue. But the great friendlies for Eithel Sirion also do count even if one can’t take them just like they are. The AKM odds: Eithel Sirion 60% - Numenor 40% E1 Utumno – D2 Gelion Utumno 6-0 9 45(21) – 27(10) 100% Gelion 3-3 4 24(11) – 30(13) 76,9% Utumno boasts one of the most aggressive offence of the tournament and possibly the best goalie so far, not to mention that their defences have been one of the best overall to keep the shots out of the mark. And on top of mighty Melkor they have the sensational Tilion up front. Gelion in it’s part has won Rohan 1-0 and drawn with Dale 1-1. Gelion’s most remarkable feat has thus far being losing only 1-2 to Eithel Sirion, but that in the end reveals the whole problem with Gelion: they don’t score. Beren has scored twice but he carries the burden too much alone. Not that Utumno would have the most spread out scorer-line either, but as long as Tilion keeps up scoring more than one goal per game there should be no problem – and many commentators feel it’s just a question of time when Melkor, Gothmog, Tevildo and Thuringwethil start delivering alongside Tilion. If that was to happen Gelion would not have even a theoretical chance. And even without a massive awakening Utumno has good chances to score as Dior actually isn’t even near the best goalies around (76,9%). But the ball is round and if Gelion manages to frustrate Utumno’s game – and Tilion doesn’t deliver while no one else is able to jump into his shoes… well then Gelion has a chance. But it is a slight one. The AKM odds: Utumno 90% - Gelion 10% F1 Valimar – C2 Norbury Valimar 7-2 9 39(20) – 27(13) 84,6% Norbury 4-4 4 28(13) – 35(18) 77,8% If the Mithrim – Bywater game seems like a predetermined one, then here is the second one where the outcome looks like more or less decided already. It could be said that group F probably wasn’t that tough a group some thought beforehand and thus Valimar wouldn’t be that sovereign a team, but then again Norbury’s barely leaving Nargothrond and Pelennor behind is not such a feat either. And looking at the possibilities to score: Norbury seems to have their game more or less solely in the feet of Araphor (2+0) and Malbeth (1+1), whereas Valimar has on top Eönwe (3+1), Arien (2+2), Tulkas (2+0), Varda (0+2) … Now the only chance Norbury could have is the much speculated possibility that Valimar is playing something like “a nice game” against all teams whose players they appreciate (and Norbury could be one of those) while playing with full swing against baddies. Now if it where that way there is a minuscule chance they let Norbury play even or just one goal behind to the late stages and then Norbury could capitalise. But it looks like a far-fetched scenario indeed. Being considerate to goodies is one thing and playing stupidly is another. The AKM odds: Valimar 95% - Norbury 5% G1 Gondolin – B2 Barad Dûr Gondolin 6-1 7 41(20) – 23(9) 88,9% Barad Dur 8-5 7 39(21) – 40(20) 75% This must be one of the highlights of the first qualifying round – and one of the hardest to assess. The problem with Barad Dûr is clearly the defence: they let the opponents to shoot a lot (twice as many shots in the group-phase than Gondolin) and the Mouth isn’t at the level of a final-winning goalie unlike Huor who could be even that. But Barad Dûr counts on overscoring their opponents, and they sure have scored! Even if BD and Gondolin have shot more or less the equal numbers (both overall and on target) in the first three matches Barad Dûr’s efficiency in scoring is just on a class of it’s own. Their shooting efficiency is the only one over 20% in the whole tournament. The attacking quartet Elendil, Gil-Galad, Isildur and Sauron are a force in their own right and a nightmare to any defence. Also group B was a shooting gallery only topped by group H, so BD’s defensive stats may appear worse than they actually are. But then again Gondolin has been a solid side throughout the tournament: the defence led by Thorondor is one of the tightest of the whole tournament, especially when it comes to allowing shots on goal, Glorfindel and Echtelion can both defend and score, and the trio Fingolfin, Aredhel and Maeglin is a threat to any defence (although one must admit especially Maeglin has underperformed thus far), not to re-mention the grand goal-keeping by Huor. It is basically too hard to call. The AKM odds: Gondolin 50% - Barad Dûr 50% H1 Tirion – A2 Aman Tirion 11-5 9 56(29) – 37(19) 73,7% Aman 4-2 7 31(17) – 27(12) 83,3% Unless Ar Pharazôn really starts performing miracles, maybe bringing Oromë and Finarfin with him, then it will be good-bye to the Aman team. And even in that case Nienna and her Turgon led Valier defence will face the fiercest hurricane they have met thus far. Playing against Ithilien, Beleriand and Vinyamar and getting through as the second team with 4-2 goal difference is from such a different planet than winning sovereignly a group with Dol Guldur, Havens and Minas Anor and ending up with a goal difference of 11-5! In Aman’s group A the total number of shots made in all six games was 113. In group H of Tirion it was 171! So Tirion has been in tight games, in the “group of death” so to speak, and brought it home securely, Aman has been in the probably weakest group of all and survived the second. And the greatest fear for Aman sure is the offensive line up of Tirion: Nerdanel (2+4), Miriel (3+2), Finwë (3+2), Fëanor (2+2) … beat that! Aman will sure give a fight and one never knows about the Valar so therefore the AKM will not offer 100-0 odds. The AKM odds: Tirion 95% - Aman 5% An AKM disclaimer. The stats only tell how a team has fared against the teams in it’s group and the groups might have been very different in stature compared to each other. But it is also noteworthy that all the specualtion over the relative merits of different groups over each other really are just speculation. The AKM has tried to take that into account but will not compensate to any gambler betting on the games following the AKM’s analysis.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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05-07-2010, 07:58 PM
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Beloved Shadow
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: The Stadium
Posts: 5,971
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differing views on the playoffs...
Each sports paper or magazine has a certain lense that they view things through, and thus there are many differing opinions to be found as to which teams will be moving on into the Arda Cup quarterfinals. Here are a couple of those views...
Monster Magazine Ruharg the Red, dragon of the Withered Heath Once you're at this stage it's obvious all the teams are quality, but who will have that extra something to push on towards a title? If you ask me, competitive fire and an extra bit of power will be the difference. Titles are won by those with no mercy who are willing to use the full scope of abilites to get a win. Two years ago it was the hound in goal, Huan, and a determined Feanor up front that led the way. Last year Armenelos would never have won without the ruthlessness and cunning of Sauron and Ar Pharazon. What I'm saying is, you can write off the teams filled up with nice guys. Who made the Cinderella run last year, eh? It was Mirkwood, featuring a Nazgul and Scatha the dragon on the attack, and a defense led by the gritty Grimbeorn. If there's such a run this year, it will be made by a similar team. Dol Guldur over Vinyamar Are you kidding me? No way will Vinyamar be able to match the killer instinct of The Witch King, Bolg, Khamul, and the Bear-men. Barrow-Downs over Gondor I don't think either of these teams can go all the way. Barrow-Downs lost their chances of that when they decided not to be Werewolves. But a couple of them have at least carried over their flair, and the Warg keeper will come through for them. Mithrim over Bywater Saruman and the Nazgul have been kept on too short a leash by Gandalf to carry the day, while on the other side Huan is always solid in goal and Celegorm and Curufin know how to get things done on defense. And up front, who can deny that Turin has the attitude it takes to pull their team through? Numenor over Eithel Sirion The side from Numenor has certainly lost a lot of their swagger, sacrificing those go-getters Sauron, Ar Pharazon, and Tar Minastir for replacements that are high quality but lack that extra oomph and fire (Tar Palantir, Elros, Tar Miriel). But if you ask me, they have just enough of the old flame left in the form of Ar Adunakhor, Ar Zimrathan, and a couple others to get them through. Utumno over Gelion Surely I don't need to explain this. Balrogs, vampire, spider-queen, Melkor... Valimar over Norbury Neither of these teams is going to get past Utumno should they advance, but despite the presence of the annoyingly kind Manwe I think Arien, Tulkas, and the blue wizards bring enough passion to beat those ranger boys. Gondolin over Barad-Dur Now this may seem like a pick against my science, but let's look closer here. Sauron should never be doubted, and Isildur certainly has a bit of fire in him, but Gil-Galad and Elendil are bound to be dead weights to be pulled. On the other side, Maeglin is quite a schemer and was just clutch in last year's playoffs. Aredhel is strong willed and has an attitude certainly (as well as two years consecutive in the finals), and Fingolfin obviously has what it takes, riding alone to challenge Morgoth to a duel. And Eol- like father like son. Barad-Dur has more baddies, but not as big difference makers. Tirion over Aman Neither of these teams are to my liking, but I think in the end Feanor has just a bit more "it" quality than Ar Pharazon, and a supporting cast more likely to back him up and do what it takes to win. Whoever advances I'd take Barad-Dur or Gondolin over them. ********************************* ********************************* Westernesse Weekly Ar-Tar-Aradil of Numenor The age of men has come, and the playoffs are bound to reflect that. Last year's win by Armenelos should be a hint to everyone- the younger race playing a beautiful team game will triumph over others. The elves can't take as much of a beating and rely too much on individuals, the monsters aren't strategic enough, and the dwarves and hobbits aren't big enough. The most serious threat would probably be from the Ainu, if they weren't stuck in their outdated ways. The only teams that can stand up to the top mortal talent are teams featuring Edain with other races mixed in here and there for situational flexibility. Vinyamar over Dol Duldur Dol Guldur is too uncontrolled and undisciplined to make it against Vinyamar, which features Tuor, Elves, and Ainu playing a very Westernesse style game. Barrow-Downs over Gondor Now this one is very tough to call, as both teams play the right way. I'll give the nod to Barrow-Downs due to past experience. Mithrim over Bywater This one won't be close, as the heroic men of the north playing alongside some good supporting Elves should be able to beat the hobbits in the air again and again. Numenor over Eithel Sirion This one has the makings of a great match, but I think the Numenoreans will be tougher down the stretch, and that their defense will be a touch more flawless. Combined with their experience from last year's title, this team will be difficult to knock out. Utumno over Gelion A tough one to call here, as I love the way Gelion plays, but the monsters of Utumno seem to be held in check by Melkor and made to play properly, and given that line of talent I think Gelion isn't quite up to the task, though I think they'll play them tougher than people give them credit for. Norbury over Valimar Some of team Valimar is too passive and polite (Manwe, Ilmare, Vana, Namo, Eonwe), while others have a habit of losing focus when they get overheated (Arien, Tulkas, Pallando, Alatar). Norbury on the other hand has the habit of playing to the level of opposing talent, minimizes mistakes, capitalizes on opponent mistakes, and just plays a fabulous team game. Look out for the upset here. Barad-Dur over Gondolin Sauron is willing to work with anyone to get the victory, and his minions will follow suit, so what we'll have is ten players playing a beautiful Numenorean style assisted by the air attack of a Fellbeast. Now, Gondolin has Huor and quite a collection of talent, so this one isn't in the bag, but Barad-Dur has to be the favorite here. Tirion over Aman Sort of a toss up here between two teams I'm not fond of. Aman plays solid team defense for the most part, but lacks the initiative or skill often to get it up to their scorers. Ar Pharazon can't both score plus get himself the ball. Tirion on the other hand can score a ton, but too many of their skill players don't have the physique necessary to last a whole tournament of tough play. I figure they have enough gas to get through this one, but they'll flame out soon after.
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05-08-2010, 10:35 AM
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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The AKM wishes to deal out some additional stars after the group-phase for players who have shown consistent performance that is possibly not so flashing in an individual game but put together really makes a difference.
Three stars Ungoliant of Utumno Picking up three shots in a game and not letting any in is nice but not heroic. After three games Ungoliant has faced 10 shots and still has kept her goal untouched. Now that is a feat. She's by far being the best goalie of the tournament and deserves the stars from the AKM. Two stars Túrin of Mithrim Tilion of Utumno Tar Minastir of Havens These guys scored consistently in every game they played and once made two goals in a same match. The highest level of performance from these forwards and worth recognition. Elendil, Sauron and Isildur of Barad Dûr The plain deadliest attack of the whole tournament thus far scoring with over 20% of their shots - and they shoot. Nerdanel, Finwë, Fëanor and Miriel of Tirion Ten goals and ten assist for the quartet in three games. It's hard to imagine a more effective attack. This quartet just rocks! One star Maglor of Eithel Sirion The second best goalie of the tournament so far. With a beautiful saving percentage of 90% he's the backbone of Eithel Sirion's success-story. Ossë, Galdor, Salmar and Ulmo of Vinyamar The toughest defence of the tournament so far. Has allowed only 19 shots in three games - and only 8 on target. Annael, Gelmir, Celegorm and Curufin of Mithrim Second best defence of the tournament thus far (21-8) but has faced more attacking teams than the Vinyamar defence. The AKM stars after the group-phase are the following (those not playing any more are italicized): Five stars Tilion of Utumno Four stars Finwë of Tirion Miriel of Tirion Three stars Arien of Valimar Elrond of Rivendell Tar Minastir of Havens Túrin of Mithrim Ungoliant of Utumno Two stars Celegorm of Mithrim Cotton of Bywater Curufin of Mithrim Elendil of Barad Dûr Eorl of Rohan Fëanor of Tirion Isildur of Barad Dûr Nerdanel of Tirion Sauron of Barad Dûr The Witch King of Dol Guldur One star Ancalagon the Black of Thangoodrim Annael of Mithrim Arvedui of Norbury Galdor of Vinyamar Gelmir of Mithrim Maglor of Eithel Sirion Melian of Doriath Ossë of Vinyamar Romendacil of Gondor Salmar of Vinyamar Tom Bombadill of Bree Ulmo of Vinyamar
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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05-08-2010, 05:33 PM
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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The AKM special interview with Melkor!
The star reporter Ugr Nogrendale is back! He has settled any financial issues there could have been and continues now with a highly special report direct from Utumnno.
I must say I was a bit nervous waiting for Melkor himself in His personal lobby of the newly dug stronghold of Utumno. Getting in was already quite intimidating and my head was turning a somersault every second whether to leave or stay. In the dimly lit hall only the cracks of fire soothed me as the special orc-guards twice the height and triple the strength of me stood grimly at the shadows around the exits and the strong Utumno-gin I had been left with burned my innards. I have been in tough places but this truly was one I would remember as an old man - if there was to be such longevity for me. It was creepy. Finally the great doors opened pulled by two giant trolls and Morgoth himself entered the hall. How was he? I can't say. He was big and commanding, he was overpowering but yet smiling. With his orders a great jug of gin was brought to me while he sat down opposite of me and called for some mead. Suddenly there was a beat of wings and a current of air nailed me to the red-leather comfychair I was sitting in. Thuringwethil appeared from nowhere, it seemed to me, and landed on Melkor's knee turning her seducing but dreadful eyes on me. I almost wetted myself. Melkor: So Mr. Nogrendale, you represent the AKM and had some questions for me, right? I nodded in haste but couldn't keep my eyes away from the vampire seduceress. Melkor: Does it bother you if my aid Thurinwethil will stand by me during the interview? My brain yelled that she did but how could I say that aloud? A salty drop of sweat dropped from my nose to my lip and I bit it. I could see Thuringwethil becoming aware of the blood and gazing at me even more intensively... It was a nightmare. I had no other chance but to shook my head,. What would have followed if I'd said her presence killed me? So I took a deep breath. Melkor: Let's go on with it then Mr. N.? U.N.: Oh yes... let's... Well... erm... Thuringwethil: Speak now Mr. Handsome, speak... I was totally panicking. This was not good. It was terrifying but also enticing. Her soft voice lured me totally while I realised her tone of voice was ice cold. U.N.: Congratulations for the newly built stronghold master Melkor. Did you do this all because of football? Melkor: *laughs from the belly* Heh, I thought you were afraid little-one but it seems you have a head that still works... Well now as you ask it, I can not but say yes. It is all for the football. My efforts to reawaken the age old fortification of Utumno, building it all over again, digging deeper we ever did before, is only for the football fans of Arda to enjoy. U.N.: Great... But well... there have been some concerns about the safety of the visitors... Thuringwethil: Safety?! Where was the safety of those dragons calculatedly killed by Valimar organisers? Or the fairness of all those restrictions of attendance? You know these Vala try to boast they're nice and what not, but they are calculating bastards who rather see their friends going through instead of playing it fair. Melkor hushed his pet, who to me was the goddess. I was so freaked out that I had to fill my glass and empty it immediately. Melkor: There will be no safety problems, let me assure you. I brought order into the games at Misty Mountains and I sure am cabable of securing my own dwelling. I had to pull myself together and luckily I had thought of a few questions beforehand. U.N.: Some media are advertising this game as the one where Beren and Luthien will re-visit your fortress... and they predict success, especially now that you don't have Carcaroth in your team. How would you comment on that? Melkor: *bellows with laughter* Oh, the petty youngsters! Had I lived here in Utumno instead of Angband their destiny would have been completely different. It was sad I had only a second class fortress by then. But I do welcome them both to Utumno. Let's see who gets the last word now shall we? U.N.: Is that a threat? Thuringwethil rose up to her wings and screamed revealing her vampire teeth. I was stuck in my chair and my heart-rate was above all the recommendations for a healthy life. I took a deep draught of the gin and filled the goblet just to stay in my senses. Melkor: Oh no. *laughter* Let's say it's an invitation to a rematch between us, shall we? I had to nod only as the Utumno-Gin burned my throat. There were tears in my eyes, for several reasons, but I had to concentrate. U.N.: So what would you say about your opponents, the team Gelion? Melkor: Like ever before, the're worthy adversaries. I will admit that much. But then again we will just outpower them and our real goal is the game against Valimar. We have quite a few things to settle with them, especially after the games at their homeside and all that happened there, and on that road Gelion is a mouthpiece we just have to do away with. U.N.: So you don't think Gelion has a chance? Melkor: None whatsoever! They can defend against poorly attacking sides but we shall show them the tempest! U.N.: Tilion has been responsible of two thirds of your goals. What if Tilion has a bad day? This time it was Melkor who clearly grew in size and stature. I had to swallow the drink I was just sipping and went lame back in my chair. Melkor: We are a team! I know you media-guys like to rip-off things from our past but Tilion works for me and for the team now. And mind you, we have others to decide the games as well; like Gothmog the slayer of Fëanor, Fingon and Ecthelion; we haveTevildo and my dear Thuringwethil here. What chance you think those runaways and misfits have against us, especially in here, in front of our homecrowds? I had to concentrate on sweet-talkin' but with Melkor in fury and Thuringwethil piercing my eyes with her stare it was harder I could have imagined. U.N.: Yes, thanks Master Melkor... thanks for the interview. I will not describe my exit from Utumno as that would be too embarrassing. But I got out of there alive and that is a feat.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 05-08-2010 at 05:37 PM. |
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05-09-2010, 03:39 AM
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Laconic Loreman
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 7,521
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TTN - Playoff Preview
The playoffs are now here, is there anything better? Round 3 was rather a tale of two stories for me. The first story, for groups A-D I was dead on about 13 of the 16 team goals! Then comes groups E-H, which was an utter mess, especially due to Thangorodrim and Havens being eliminated. What can ya do?
What TTN is bringing to their loyal followers this week...power rankings for the 16 playoff teams, as well as a preview and predictions for all the matches. We also have a new "Giants" and "slayers" feature. Lot to do, let's get to it! Giants (G)- It was rather easy picking the giants out. To qualify you had to be a group winner, but simply being a group winner does not make you a Giant. TTN thinks there are 6 Giants (the 5 teams who picked up the full 9 points in their respective groups, plus the best ranked 7 point team). You might argue this is too many, as afterall only 4 teams make it to the semis, so how are there 6 Giants? There are legitimately 6 teams which impressed us so much, we would not be shocked if any combination of 4 got to the semis. Slayers (s) - These were a little harder to identify. The basic qualification was you had to be a 2nd place finisher. However, just like with the giants, we would not identify all teams who finished 2nd as a potential slayer. We gathered all possible statistics to figure out which of the "little guys" had good potential to knock down a Goliath. We found 5. Now for the power rankings, which is simply a way to look at how the 16 playoff teams stack up against eachother. But before the actual rankings, here are the details to the method. Teams were rated on a scale of 1-5 in these 3 categories: 1. Offense: a combination of goals, total shots, shots on target, and scoring percentage. 2. Defense: total shots a defense allowed, and shots on target allowed 3. Goal keeping: Keepers save percentage. Goal keeping was a late factor added, because when looking at all the statistics, we noticed some teams had great defenses that allowed a low amount of shots, but had an average GK, and other defenses gave up a lot of shots but had GK who were saving everything! The fact is, great (or poor) goal keepers can have a major impact on the outcome of games, so we thought it needed to be a separate category from defense. Having made this decision, when crunching all the numbers, they favored the defensive teams. I believed this formula: Offense + Defense + Goal keeping = overall Skewed the results too much and created an unfair bias. So instead I went with this formula: Offense + ((Defense + Goal keeping) / 2) = overall Thus the Power Rankings still favor teams oriented on good defense, but not nearly as skewed as the first formula. And honestly, I am fine with this bias towards good defense, you know the saying...Great defense wins championships.  POWER RANKINGS 16. Gelion -OFF: 1.5 / FW- Beren (8) -DEF: 3 / *DF- Luthien (9) -GK: 3 / Dior- 76.9% -OVR: 4.5 Gelion's feel good story about making the playoffs will quickly come crashing to an end. They didn't get here by luck, it was good team defense and work ethic, but you can see from the stats just look quite average compared to the 15 remaining teams. Utumno should get an easy victory, but even if Gelion was playing someone else they'd still be heavy underdogs. 15. Norbury (s) -OFF: 2.5 / FW- Araphor, *MF- Malbeth (8) -DEF: 2 / DF- Amlaith (6) -GK: 3 / Arvedui- 77.9% -OVR: 5 The biggest argument I found for Norbury being a slayer is their match against Mithrim. They did lose that match 2-1, but if you have to like their consistancy. They ranged from 8 to 11 scoring opportunities in their 3 matches, and got a goal in each. This includes a goal against Mithrim who is without question a Top 3 defense (Valimar is good but not one of the other 2). They will get their 8-11 chances again. And do you really think Valimar will go on a 4-goal rampage against Norbury? I don't, not only because Valimar won't be inspired to destroy them like Thangorodrim, but Norbury is simply a better defense. This is why they're in and Thangorodrim's not. 14. Gondor (s) -OFF: 2 / FW- Eldacar (11) -DEF: 2.5 / DF- Folcred, Fastred (8) -GK: 4 / Romendacil- 87.8% -OVR: 5.25 When you have a GK performing like Romendacil and a team that every game, no matter the foe, matches their opponents numbers, there is no question you're a slayer. The biggest weakness is the defense does allow quite a few too many shots, and so if Romendacil doesn't keep up his stellar save % any game could turn into a route. However, as stated previously for as many shots as their defense allows, their offense matches in production. This means they keep games close and can easily win. They face the Barrow-Downs in Round 1, who has not been identified as a Giant, but all I mean is IF Gondor were to face one of the Giants they would have a good chance at getting the upset. 13. Numenor (s) -OFF: 1.5 / FW- Ar Adunakhor (7) -DEF: 4 / **DF- Tar Telperien (11) -GK: 3.5 / *Tar Atanamir- 81.8% -OVR: 5.25 Of all the slayers Numenor probably has the best potential. Tar Telperien's got that defense working just as effective as last year, there is a slight drop in Tar Atanamir's saves, but he's a playoff experienced championship GK, end of story. They were only able to get 3 goals in 3 games, and have a terrible scoring percentage of 7.7%. But not so hasty I say! They still put together and impressive 39 shots, and look at the other GK's in their group. Ungoliant (who has been THE best up to this point) and Elrond who just ridiculously saved everything. It's a great sign they are still getting a high amount of shots, so perhaps facing a different GK is just what the doctor ordered. Now, Maglor for Eithel Sirion saved 9/10, but can he keep that up against the mighty Numenoreans? 12. Aman -OFF: 2 / FW- Ar Pharazon (11) -DEF: 3.5 / *DF- Turgon (8) -GK: 4 / Nienna- 83.3% -OVR: 5.75 Aman's got a good defense, but to be honest it's not great and to stop Tirion you have to be great. I, unlike AKMs major lovefest with Tirion, think their offense can be stopped, but it won't be by Aman. Here's what I mean by good but not great. Vinyamar played in the same group, their defense allowed 19 shots (8 on target), how did Aman's compare? 27(12), That's a significant difference and they played the same teams. Aman also doesn't have the fire power to get into a scoring match with Tirion, slayers Aman are not. 11. Dol Guldur -OFF: 4.5 / *FW- Witch King (18) -DEF: 1 / DF- Thrain (0) -GK: 1.5 / Oropher- 66.7% -OVR: 5.75 Not slayers either and opposite of the reasons Aman are not. Dol Guldur's defense is just too bad, and I'm not understanding AKM's boy crush on these types of teams. Attercop and Tomnoddy picked up 2 yellows each, they can't stop anyone from shooting. When they actually do a half-way decent job Oropher only saves 2/3rds! If you notice too, in their matches, they usually wind up behind and the Witch-King has to come storming back. Vinyamar managed a respectable 5 goals in a very tough defensive group. If they get down a few goals again, do you really think the Witch-King can storm back against one of the Top 3 defensive teams? Answer is no. 10. Bywater (s) -OFF: 2.5 / **MF- Gandalf, Maggot (9) -DEF: 3 / **DF- Shadowfax (6) -GK: 3.5 / Cotton- 80.0% -OVR: 5.75 Bywater is one of the slayers, just too bad their playoff match is against the best team of the first 3 rounds. Mithrim's defense is virtually identical to Vinyamar's. We're not going to argue which one is actually better, but whoever you put at #1 the other is #2. Bywater only mustered 4 goals but have a high scoring percentage of 16%, backed by a solid defense and a surprisingly good GK. People might whine they are lucky to be here and it should be Thangorodrim if it wasn't for Valimar's deus ex vendetta. The facts are these though, Bywater got the draw against Thangorodrim. If Thangorodrim wants to complain about being cheated they should have taken care of business against Bywater, they did not. It's just very unfortunate Bywater's got to take on Mithrim. If they were actually against one of the other giants, I'd like their chances better. 09. Barad-Dur (s) -OFF: 5 / **FW- Sauron (14) -DEF: 1.5 / DF- Anarion (5) -GK: 2.5 / The Mouth- 75.0% -OVR: 7 I questioned whether Barad-dur should qualify as a slayer, because their numbers are near even with the Barrow-Downs. I mean you could seriously flip-flop the #8 and #9 teams, the reason Barrow-Downs were group winners is they gave up 1 fewer goal. However, Barad Dur fit the qualifications, they finished 2nd, and are not seen as a semi-finalist. You'll notice I gave a 5 to both Tirion and Barad-dur in offense. How can this be when Tirion scored 3 more goals? Barad-Dur's 20.5% scoring is how, that's the best percentage. With Sauron these bad boys can't be counted out, and with their leaky defense the match against Gondolin should be a high scoring thriller. 08. Barrow-Downs -OFF: 4.5 / FW- Nogrod (15) -DEF: 3.5 / DF- Skip (10) -GK: 2 / Eomerwarg- 71.4% -OVR: 7.25 In one of the best offensive groups Barrow-Downs defense performend leagues ahead of the other teams in their group. I mean take a look at Barad Dur's numbers giving up 40(20), compared to the Barrow Downs' 25(14). That's a staggering difference, as this defense is just chokes off all space. The big problem...Eomerwarg who out of the 16 goal keepers, ranks 15th. With how the defense in front of him is playing, he's got to start saving more. If he does The Barrow-Downs are capable of beating anyone. 07. Tirion (G) -OFF: 5 / *MF- Nerdanel (21) -DEF: 2 / DF- Indis (2) -GK: 2.5 / Aule- 73.7% -OVR: 7.25 By far the best offensive team and there are 4 or 5 different players who can score a goal at any minute. However, when you crunch all their numbers, we see the same problem from previous years, defense is just not good enough, and Aule hasn't been anything to brag about either. This Aman match will be interesting, for while I don't think Aman's defense is good enough to shut down Tirion, they certainly are better than any of the ones Tirion faced in Group H. I'll say this, if Tirion scores 4 goals, I will admit to under-valueing their offensive power, but if they get 2, I want AKM to print I'm 100% correct about how Tirion's attack can be slowed down, and even stopped if, up against a quality defense. (If they score 3, I'll consider it a push and the jury will still be out  )06. Vinyamar -OFF: 3 / MF- Idril (10) -DEF: 5 / **DF- Ulmo (12) -GK: 4.5 / Rog- 87.5% -OVR: 7.75 A respectively efficient offense, that scored 5 goals in a defensive group, add to that the best defense and you have a very dangerous and very strong team. This is something I will agree with AKM about, if you start diving into arguments over which groups tougher than others and trying to factor that into evaluating the stats, you will just drive yourself crazy. Here's the deal, Vinyamar's defense was by far the best of Group A, and thus arguably the best in the tournament. And they averaged 1.67 goals in that group, 'nuff said. Do not underestimate them. 05. Gondolin (G) -OFF: 3.5 / MF- Glorfindel (10) -DEF: 4.5 / *Thorondor (12) -GK: 4.5 / Huor- 88.9% -OVR: 8 Before anyone goes up in arms over how can Gondolin be a giant when they didn't even sweep their group and how can they be above Tirion, here's how. Every single player on Gondolin is just as good on offense as they are on defense, they play both extremely well. Defensively they were right behind Vinyamar and Mithrim, allowing 23 (9) shots. Huor is a proven playoff GK, making big saves to get Dor Lomin to the quater-final round last year. And they are similar to Tirion offensively, that is you see a great spread of production from top to bottom. At some point every FW or MF contributed with a goal or assist. 04. Valimar (G) -OFF: 4 / MF- Arien (18) -DEF: 4 / **DF- Manwe (11) -GK: 4 / *Namo- 86.7% -OVR: 8 Biggest weakness is they are goal bingers. They want to annhilate the baddies, but against goodies they aren't inspired. The game against Norbury will be tight, and because of that they could very well lose, because Norbury will not play intimidated against the Valar. It's interesting that the potential to face Utumno in the next round might provide Valimar with enough umph to want to beat Norbury in Round 1. Then they can knock out the only remaining evil-doers of Utumno and blow their semi-final match. However their laissez-faire attitude to let the good guys defeat big bad evil on their own may just provide the Norbury slayers an opportunity at the upset. 03. Utumno (G) -OFF: 3.5 / FW- Tilion (18) -DEF: 4.5 / **DF- Balrog 4 (12) -GK: 5 / *Ungoliant- 100% -OVR: 8.25 An intimidatingly strong Balrog defense, plus the best goalie thus far, Utumno looks like they will be one of the teams to beat. And don't worry too much about that small scoring % of 13.3%. They were up against 2 great goal keepers in that group, as well as some tough defenses. And despite that they managed 45 total shots, that was only behind Tirion's 56. With how many chances they create, the goals will come a plenty. 02. Eithel Sirion (G) -OFF: 4 / *FW- Maedhros (15) -DEF: 4.5 / DF- Aegnor (12) -GK: 4.5 / Maglor- 90% -OVR: 8.5 I was surprised that Eithel Sirion, statistically ended up as the 2nd best team. But here's the deal, they scored 7 goals and only allowed 1. They were a top-5 defense and Maglor was the 2nd best GK. We'll see if he can keep that up against sturdier FWs. He did great against the 'lesser' Men and Elves that he saw in Group D, the greater Numenoreans should be a stiffer test. Also, their scoring is not as spread out as other teams. You have Maedhras, Fingon, and Hador doing the brunt of the work on offense. Can't find too much to complain when you have 3 players like that who can score, but past them, there's not much. 01. Mithrim (G) -OFF: 4 / **FW- Turin (18) -DEF: 5 / *DF- Celegorm (15) -GK: 4.5 / **Huan- 87.5% -OVR: 8.75 Above and beyond the best team, and the clear favorites to win it all right now. All around they played leagues above everyone else. Of all the stats I factored into the power rankings, Mithrim was the only team who was Top 5 in ALL OF THEM...oh wait, they ranked 6th best in scoring percentage, my mistake on that one. One potential problem I see, and this is why they only rate a 4 in offense (despite being tied for 2nd most goals). They scored 4 of those goals against Pelennor, while only 2-each against the much better organized defenses of Nargothrond and Norbury. However, winning every match 2-0, 2-1 is still winning. PREDICTIONS: Vinyamar 2 - 1 Dol Guldur Barrow Downs 2 - 2 Gondor (BD wins in shoot out. This is purely to brag if I get it right )Mithrim 2 - 0 Bywater Eithel Sirion 1 - 2 Numenor Utumno 2 - 0 Gelion Valimar 1 - 2 Norbury (Norbury wins in overtime) Gondolin 4 - 2 Barad Dur Tirion 2 - 1 Aman
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Fenris Penguin
Last edited by Boromir88; 05-09-2010 at 03:46 AM. |
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05-09-2010, 09:29 AM
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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You Americans really are crazy about the sports stats, aren't you?
*shakes head* 
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