WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What I thought when reading those posts was that Lottie had a reason to believe Brinn was the unicorn... Or wanted to make somebody else believe so.

I just realized, she probably picked Brinn as the Unicorn by elimination. Think about it– it couldn't be Shasta because he thought it was Morsul, it couldn't be you because you were urging the unicorn to reveal, it couldn't be me because I'm too reluctant to die, and clearly it couldn't possibly be Lommy.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- Brinn says: "Legate is someone I'm growing increasingly worried about, but I need to look at him better before throwing any real suspicion at him." That's quite a fishy statement in the situation where suspicion against Legate is growing. However, if Brinn is the final wolf, why did she be so nice to Legate after throwing all her three other fellows under the bus one by one, especially as she had pretty good odds to survive given the small amount of suspicion against her thus far?

It's just numbers, Lommy. If both wolves had survived yesterDay, it would now be 2 wolves to 4 innocents. That's worth taking a bit of risk for.

[Nerwen]

So... seems I'm talking to myself here...

If it isn't Brinn, who can it be? There's only Shasta and Agan left.

If it's Shasta, we must suppose that Wolftanis Althreduin carefully faked a wllingness to vote Legate while "reluctantly" settling for Agan, then left with a vague promise of maybe switching later. A perfect way for a wolf to avoid possible responsibility for the lynch of an innocent, while making himself look good if his comrade got lynched, and all this without endangering said comrade. Brilliant!

...And then he returned, flipped out and stabbed Legwolf in the back for no particular reason. Um... yeah... whatever... Now if it it had been Boro or the phantom in Legate's place, I could just see that happening.

If it's Agan, then Legwolf decided it was so likely one of them was going to be lynched, or alternatively so unlikely that Agan would that he thought he might as well go wolf-on-wolf, even though at that point it looked like I was going to get plenty of votes. This is just possible, but it requires very poor judgement from Legate. However, if by any chance the wolf isn't Brinn, then Agan's the only one left (yes, from my point of view).

[Nerwen]

Still no-one here.

Well, I just want to say then– I really can't see any reason not to vote Brinniel. It would put my mind at rest.

The only thing I'm waiting for is to see what Lottie has to say in Brinn's defence, and why she's being so mysterious about it. My guess, though, is that the Unicorn Theory will turn out to be right.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Two hours later...

Here, have skimmed, will post momentarily. I will say I'm willing to believe Lommy - everyone has posted and no one's countered her claim of being the Unicorn (even though she forgot her role ), which narrows the wolf down to one of three (from my point of view, obviously) - Agan, Nerwen, and Brinniel.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now if it it had been Boro or the phantom in Legate's place, I could just see that happening.

Hahahaha!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay... but what I mean is that once I answered them, Brinniel basically said, "yeah, well, I don't care, I still want to lynch you just in case,"

Just noting that I did it too. It were only the recent turns of events and the fact that I started to suspect Brinn that made me consider you more innocent, and even now you're my second candidate.

I have a feeling I should do something useful but I'm lazy, so first I'm going to prime a canvas.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

...What? Did you not observe Brinniel's attempt to save Legate yesterDay?

I went back and looked at the last-minute voting yesterday, and Brinn didn't say she X'ed with anyone (so I'm assuming she didn't), so the issue I'm having is why wouldn't a Brinnwolf jump on the Legate-wagon after his fate had already been sealed? I'm assuming that she saw Nerwen's vote, winty's vote, and my vote, which put Legate at four votes.

Originally Posted by Brinniel[/quote

Anyway, I'm relieved Legate was cursed because he did look awfully innocent in the first half of the game (which means I wasn't completely fooled) . YesterDay I could see some valid points against him, but even if he was climbing up my radar, there's no way I'm going to jump on a bandwagon to lynch a player I haven't gotten the chance to look at for myself. And especially not when there's a potential candidate I suspect more.

Could this be why? Brinn defends her vote here before anyone (besides Nerwen even mentions it in a negative context, and immediately tries to set up today's lynch ("a potential candidate I suspect more"). And here -

Originally Posted by Brinniel

This case she's attempting to set up against me which seems to have a lot to do with the idea that I "saved" Legate by voting her only puts her in a worse light.

I think it's possible Brinn wouldn't have voted Legate because she expected precisely what Nerwen would say... but I'm not sure how likely it is.

Originally Posted by Agan

Legate's guilt makes Nerwen look much more innocent. I don't think even she would've pushed a fellow's lynching like she did, at least this late in the game...

Nerwen, you, and Legate were on the chopping block yesterday, so Nerwen didn't have a lot of choices if she wanted to save herself, but on the whole I tend to agree with this comment (also based on what I've read today so far).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As for why winty was killed rather than Lottie: well, I don't know, but I suspect it's because he'd both made himself look very innocent

My personal take on the winty-kill was that no one (but me ) suspected him.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Under the circumstances, it would have been idiotic for a Nerwolf to have risked killing Legate– and like I said, helping to lynch wolves has been attracting suspicion this game!

Bah... I can't tell if this post is frustrated innocent Nerwen or "that move was so stupid I'd never have done it as a wolf please believe me" Nerwolf.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yeah, and probably the best way to brush off that suspicion is to go wolf-on-wolf since that's probably less expected at this late stage of the game. By voting Legate at a critical point, you can make yourself look good then pin the suspicion on someone who didn't vote him, which is exactly what you're doing.

Alright, this post bothers me. It looks like Brinn has decided that Nerwen is 100% a wolf... and it's nigh-impossible to be 100% in this game. Plus it looks "grasping at straws"-ish... I'm not sure what the actual term is, but it's like "twisting the facts to fit the theory" kind of thing.

#988 sounds like frustrated innocent Nerwen again... but Sally already swayed me once this game with the same attitude.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Comments: Her answer to Skip is no answer at all, really. The fact remains that there was at least a chance to lynch me (the "clearly suspicious") and save Morsul, of whose innocence she was "pretty certain". She chose to hold her vote (she was there, all right, and commenting).

This is actually a pretty good point.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Comments: A bit twisty, I think– implies that my intention there is to say that my frustration proves my innocence, rather than just defend my reaction.

I actually tend to agree with this as well - I remember thinking "I don't really like the tone of this post" the first time I read it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I agree with whoever said that toDay the unicorn should come out - so, here I am, I give up.

Hi! Can I touch your horn?

Originally Posted by Agan

Yup I agree. And of course his vote for Legate made him look quite innocent.

Hah, Agan thinks what I do.

Originally Posted by Lommy

- Legate's post, opinions and speculation about everybody but Brinn - why not her? If she was his fellow, wouldn't he have felt he has to include her or otherwise it's suspicious? Although, later he says Brinn seems the most innocent of all - where did that then come from? But again we have to still ask: wouldn't a wolf be more careful about what he says about a fellow?
- Legate was reluctant to consider Agan a possible suspect because then he'd get paranoid and wouldn't get rid of it before she dies - echoes from innocent-Legate's thoughts or a crafty way of not suspecting a fellow?

I think the thing about Brinn is more likely at this point, but that's an interesting take on Agan, too.


Alright, a list from most to least suspicious (discounting myself, Lottie, and Lommy)

Brinniel
Nerwen
Aganzir - Shockingly enough, she's a little bit under my radar ("Impossible!") I need to change that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now if it it had been Boro or the phantom in Legate's place, I could just see that happening.

Jeez, haven't I left that behind me yet?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I have reread, and I have to say I'm still confused grr... Basically, it could be any of Brinn, Nerwen or Agan, but I think I'm letting Agan be, for toDay at least. If she was a wolf, I don't think she'd have killed Winty, or more like, she wouldn't have needed to. What I mean by that is that for Nerwen Winty would've been a safe choice who would lead no suspicion tracks to her, and for Brinn, it wouldn't be a loss of a supporter or anyone who can go after Nerwen recklessly.

Gggg. I think the recent evidence points a bit more to Brinn's direction, but then again, somehow it's easier to imagine a wolf-Nerwen getting four fellows lynched than a Brinn-wolf getting three fellows lynched and trying to save the last one.

But two questions: 1. Would Brinn look any better if her last-minute vote had been for Legate? No, and that's why I think we shouldn't use her vote as an argument against her, or at least do that with caution. 2. Would a Nerwolf have thrown fellow Legate under the bus instead of getting herself lynched and him as someone less suspected continue the game for the evil team? Yes, if that was what she needed to do to keep consistent (if Nerwolf had self-sacrificed for Legate and thus looked inconsistent, it would've been pretty condemning against him and the end for the evil team). But would a Nerwolf have expressed suspicion of fellow Legate so early on during the Day? Not sure...