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Old 04-20-2010, 07:21 PM   #1
Nerwen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
P.S. This post from winty looks genuine to me.
Agreed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
She's acted genuinely frustrated and innocent, plus she hasn't acted suspiciously at all.
Really? May I refer you to her voting record? But actually I don't find that very suspicious in itself– I'm not so keen, though, on the way she keeps insisting it's actually proof of innocence. Thing is, Agan is pretty hard to read, for the opposite reason to Legate or Brinn– she's a very aggressive player who tends to go all out to lynch people, whatever her role.
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:23 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
Really? May I refer you to her voting record? But actually I don't find that very suspicious in itself– I'm not so keen, though, on the way she keeps insisting it's actually proof of innocence. Thing is, Agan is pretty hard to read, for the opposite reason to Legate or Brinn– she's a very aggressive player who tends to go all out to lynch people, whatever her role.
I don't think that's suspicious. And she's not really insisting, just defending herself. People bring it up; they say it's susicious; she explains why it's not. I don't have a problem with this.
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:27 PM   #3
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Who suspects who.... I think

Wintywinty – Tweedle
I suspect Shasta and Legate
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Nerwen, Brinn, Legate, Lommy, Shasta
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Nerwen, Legate, Agan
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen and Legate
Nerwen – the Dodo
Everyone
Legate – Jabberwocky
Wintywinty, Nerwen, Agan
Lommy – the Gryphon
Nerwen and Legate
Brinniel – Tweedledee
Nerwen
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:29 PM   #4
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++Legate

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Old 04-22-2010, 05:55 AM   #5
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Yesterday's voting

Others on Legate (Lottie, winty & Lommy mostly excluded)
-Agan agrees with Lottie that Legate is strangely non-committing, says she isn't used to him like that (regardless of his role)
-Nerwen wonders if Legate's surprise about her skip ranger theory is a mark of furriness
-Agan says she's worried about Legate because he feels sloppier and dumber than usual
-Agan lists Legate as one of her voting candidates (although a rather unlikely)
-Nerwen says he's smooth, slippery and opportunistic
-Shasta says Legate's backing away from claiming Nerwen's theory is far fetched could be wolfish, says Nerwen, Legate & Agan have points against them but isn't sure which are bigger
-Agan says the way Legate ends his vote post ("And let's hope we do it right this time and celebrate after this.") is awfully forced-looking and creepy
-Shasta laments that nobody is willing to vote for Legate
-Nerwen is sure there's at least a wolf in the group Legate-Lommy-Agan-Brinn
-Lottie votes for Legate after suspecting him heavily
-Brinn is growing increasingly worried about Legate but will have to look at him better before throwing any real suspicion at him
-Nerwen is willing to vote for Legate (at this point he has one vote plus Shasta's possible retraction; she xed with winty who said Legate was one of his top suspects)
-Nerwen votes for Legate (Nerwen-2, Legate-2, Agan-1)
-winty votes for Legate
-Shasta retracts and votes for Legate (he xed so when he started typing his vote post, it was Nerwen-2, Legate-1, Agan-1)
-Brinn votes for Nerwen at deadline. If Shasta hadn't retracted, Nerwen would've been lynched.

Legate on others
-wonders if Nerwolf would've brought up the theory of how the wolves could've noticed skip was the ranger, concludes that in her case it's not impossible
-has a "double-feeling" about Agan, thinks some things she does look innocent but she could also be a wolf
-has found Brinn mostly innocent before, wonders if she might be slipping under his radar, "maybe it will be best to wait for her to post and follow her to get more information about her."
-thinks Nerwen's post 931 is ineffective/unhelpful, reminds him of a desperate wolf
-is growing worried about Agan, finds Nerwen unnerving, thinks Shasta looks innocent but might be slipping under the radar. Thinks the wolf is hiding among these three.
-Nerwen looks better because she doesn't want to lynch ww
-thinks he'll vote for Agan because Nerwen looks more innocent whereas Agan has been more careful lately and is finding new suspects. Votes Agan.

Some conclusions, then...

Oh and as a sidenote (yes I'm easily distracted), we have two days to find the wolf. Unless she decides to kill Lommy and somebody is resurrected.

From the least suspicious to the most suspicious (the known innocents & me excluded, so not a very long list):
Nerwen. Brought up points against him early on the day, Legate seemed to consider voting for her seriously.
Shasta. Was after him from early on.
Brinn. It's quite convenient how they both were growing worried of the other but didn't want to do anything more radical before seeing them post more.

Based on interaction with Legate, Brinn seems to be the most likely wolf... However she did go after the other wolves, I think.
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Old 04-22-2010, 06:14 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
You forgot your own role?
Maybe "forget" was too strongly said, however during the first three Days or so I was really seldom thinking I had any kind of special role to the point that I was playing the game without being "conscious" of my own role the same way I am if I'm a wolf or a seer/ranger/hunter. I still keep not thinking of it - besically because I am an ordo, my death (especially in the paws of wolves) just has good consequences to the village. (Psst Wilwa not the best role for someone who used to have some sort of unofficial record of surviving till end-game... )

However, this babbling is to say that I'm back from a nap/magazine pause and shall look at the Days when Legate was a wolf now...
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Old 04-22-2010, 06:22 AM   #7
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Okay I checked Lommy's analysis of the village's interactions with Glirdy & sally and my own of Nog.

Agan: no opinion of sally, something mighty fishy going on between her & Glirdan (Lommy's words); voted for Nog without suspecting him much earlier; slightly suspicious of Legate who, on the other hand, voted for her when there was a fair enough chance to get her lynched (at least in my opinion ).

Shasta: sally tried to follow his initial Morsul suspicion; went back and forth about Glirdan; mutual suspicion between him & Nog and Nog's attempt to lynch him; was one of the first to go after Legate and his vote sealed his fate (even if he xed).

Nerwen: went after both sally & Glirdan although somewhat hesitantly; convenient relations with Nog; a major contributor in Legate's lynching.

Brinniel: last-minute suspicions against sally; went back and forth about Glirdan & voted for him without saying she suspected him; rather normal-looking relations with Nog, went with the flow the day he was lynched - however Nog listed her as suspicious along with sally & Glirdan on day 2; no real opinion of Legate & would've saved him if it wasn't for Shasta's retarction.

This list doesn't look very different from the previous one actually.

I'm pretty confident Shasta is innocent (and if he's a wolf I'm going to vote for him on day 1 every time we play together!). My best bet for lynching would be Brinn, followed by Nerwen (not that there are many options ).
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Old 04-22-2010, 06:41 AM   #8
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Quote:
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I've also had wolves make up cases against me in a major effort to get me lynched (remember that, Agan?) and everything about it seems forced to me.
How could I forget it? It's one of my favourite WW games ever (the other is the Prancing Pony).

In any case Brinn, I don't think my cases are that different when I'm a wolf than when I'm innocent... I mean, I tend to wear my wolf-coloured glasses even when I'm a wolf myself. And if somebody suspects me when I'm innocent, I barely ever think "Oh hey that looks genuine, they must be a misguided innocent!" So I don't quite get what's supposed to be the difference between being suspected by a wolf or innocent.
Hmm I have a feeling my ramblings don't make sense, but my point is that Brinn isn't convincing me of her innocence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
And don't say it's because your "case" against me was so persuasive that you could logically be 99% certain I was a wolf. I say again: what case? I answered your points against me, and Agan's, and you simply waved your hand and said, "No... don't buy it– anyway, let's just lynch her for peace of mind".
To be honest I must say that I do think I had a case against you... You looked really suspicious to me. I've changed my mind since, but there were points against you.
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Old 04-22-2010, 07:36 AM   #9
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Quote:
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To be honest I must say that I do think I had a case against you... You looked really suspicious to me. I've changed my mind since, but there were points against you.
Okay... but what I mean is that once I answered them, Brinniel basically said, "yeah, well, I don't care, I still want to lynch you just in case," and yet now her defence of her highly suspicious voting apparently rests on her being so convinced I was a wolf that nothing else mattered except to get me.

The other thing I am still quite bitter about is this: Brinn's main case against me is that I was "wishy-washy" on Glirdan– because I didn't go all out against him from the word go– when in fact I think I played in notable part in getting him lynched. (And Nog also, not to mention having some credit for Sally.) Meanwhile, I documented how she was not only "wishy-washy", but actually tried to discourage us from lynching him. And everyone ignored this, nodded their heads and said, "Oh, yes, Nerwen is wishy-washy, and Brinn is oh so helpful and wise. And Nerwen's wolf-voting-record is just too good to be true, while Brinn's just goes to prove how helpful and wise she is."

EDIT:X'd with 2 Lommys.
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Old 04-22-2010, 06:56 AM   #10
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Things, or actually, Questions, since I can't quite make up my mind about these things...

The Day before yesterDay
- Legate's change of opinion on Nerwen after he was turned - suspicious or too obvious?
- Legate's post, opinions and speculation about everybody but Brinn - why not her? If she was his fellow, wouldn't he have felt he has to include her or otherwise it's suspicious? Although, later he says Brinn seems the most innocent of all - where did that then come from? But again we have to still ask: wouldn't a wolf be more careful about what he says about a fellow?
- Legate was reluctant to consider Agan a possible suspect because then he'd get paranoid and wouldn't get rid of it before she dies - echoes from innocent-Legate's thoughts or a crafty way of not suspecting a fellow?
- He would've liked to vote Shasta. Now I doubt he'd have invented a random suspicion of a fellow with this kind of half-hearted hoping his suspicion gets support.

YesterDay
- I'd find it incredibly funny if Nerwen was the last remaining wolf because then the two people to analyse the kill would have been the wolves.
- Legate came back to his innocent suspicion of Nerwen, but decided to suspect Agan more. Then he voted Agan, which makes me think it rather unlikely that they were in cahoots, because Agan was suspected a bit - too much for a vote for her to be safe and too little for it to be sensible to consider her a goner and try to make the best of it. Although, given the ruthless w-on-wing in this game nothing would come as a surprise...
- Brinn says: "Legate is someone I'm growing increasingly worried about, but I need to look at him better before throwing any real suspicion at him." That's quite a fishy statement in the situation where suspicion against Legate is growing. However, if Brinn is the final wolf, why did she be so nice to Legate after throwing all her three other fellows under the bus one by one, especially as she had pretty good odds to survive given the small amount of suspicion against her thus far?
- Nerwen's rather late vote of Legate admittedly looks good, but in the lines of the previous point about Brinn - if Nerwolf had thrown already all her three fellows under the bus, why would she hesistate to do that to the last, especially given that it would probably be her only chance of redemption in the eyes of the village?
- Shasta's late retraction from Agan to Legate makes him a very unlikely wolf.

Well well well. That's four rather unlikely wolves out of which one is a wolf. Quite well done, whoever it is. I think our last wolf is Nerwen or Brinniel, possibly Agan but probably not Shasta. Now I want to reread toDay's posting and see how people have acted toDay because admittedly I read it quite quickly...


edit: xed with Agan x2
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Old 04-22-2010, 07:05 AM   #11
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Gah, no time to reread, it's later than I thought... I'll be back later.
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:29 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I don't think that's suspicious. And she's not really insisting, just defending herself. People bring it up; they say it's susicious; she explains why it's not. I don't have a problem with this.
I think it looks a bit different if you've played with her in the past, though– she could act exactly like this as a wolf.

However, I'll vote

++Legate


(for points raised earlier)

EDIT:X'd with winty. Cute.
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:30 PM   #13
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I think it looks a bit different if you've played with her in the past, though– she could act exactly like this as a wolf.
Maybe, and I could be wrong - I just don't think I am.
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:30 PM   #14
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++Legate


Edit: X'ed with Nerwen, winty, and Lottie. Well now, there's a waste of a retraction.
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:30 PM   #15
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:33 PM   #16
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Silmaril

Agan -> Nerwen
Legate -> Agan
Lommy -> Nerwen (2)
Lottie -> Legate
Nerwen -> Legate (2)
Winty -> Legate (3)
Shasta -> Legate (4)
Brinn -> Nerwen (3)

That makes it Legate.

Legate was the Cursed-Wolf.

It is now night time. Narration will be up tomorrow.
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