WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by wintywinty

Well considering how noone has died yet, nobody has a real reason for voting for anyone, therefore voting randomly is just as much a reason as voting for any other reason.

Okay, as a fellow newbie I'm thinking aloud here. There are 5 baddies (4 wolfs and a cobbler) and 15 innocents, right?

So, for an innocent, what are the chances of a completely random vote striking home? 5/19 or 26 % And the odds for collateral damage, as the US army so evasively expresses it, are subsequently 74 %. Unplayable odds, those. Of course, there's a good chance that any vote at this stage may prove meaningless but nevertheless:

A seemingly random vote makes much more immediate sense for a wolf, does it not? An innocent person getting lynched is no problem for a wolf, and a wolf may even vote for a fellow wolf to avoid suspicions later on. Chances are that the wolf-mate won't get lynched anyhow.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sumpling up to now.

'Twas brilig, and the Glirding Mirhares
have unstarted with nopoeham,
and Inzy were their simifroshares
no clue of either one of them.

Nienna didn't say much either, but at least seemed to be "concerned". Maybe. The same could be said of Shasta. Let me also note that sally looks all of a sudden far more reasonably behaving than usually in this company... (no offense)

wintywinty... well. I have said it basically above. As a newbie in any case, gets my benefit of doubt toDay, not going to lynch a newbie on Day 1... otherwise looking for more to know about him (her?)

I have no idea about what Fea wanted to accomplish, if it wasn't supposed to be in-character, so I just expect that when she shows up, she will give some explanation, if there is any.

'Twas Brinig... I wonder, not anything suspicious this far, her reaction to the votes (esp. the second one) maybe a bit too "reserved", but okay.

I am slightly at Lossloss, however I hope that as the posting continues, there will be higher frequasonable posts from her, which will help me to make a crilighter idmaginature of her.

Nerwenising Dodo, more or less Nerweanosable, which includes both typical Nerwenish behavior and being reasonable and being slightly nosy

Whittlegright, not suspicious now, yet she might easily be rading (yes, I mean as in "rade under the slipper" );

Juckprising Nogrin did catter much more and was much less - to my gasperate scaspation - Fearied about the winting votes;

thineasy fealing, seems to or wants to seem to know something more about Fea's vote than other people do (or at least more than I do) and even finds Lottie innocent on the basis of that, I would be much interested to know what it is, then. I can think of only one theory right now and if that's what she thinks, it's utter rubbish. Also the *jump* on Greenie felt sort of weird and, how would I say that, unnecessary. In any case, unexpected.

spencible, although a newbie Wolf who had just been instructed at Night might just as well have said the same.

So that's it in shrot.

EDIT: Aganixed.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

thineasy fealing, seems to or wants to seem to know something more about Fea's vote than other people do (or at least more than I do)

Anyone who has played with her before in games which have a certain rule (which this game has) should be able to read her behaviour as well as I do. Provided that I'm correct, of course...

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyone who has played with her before in games which have a certain rule (which this game has) should be able to read her behaviour as well as I do. Provided that I'm correct, of course...

Okay then, seeing how this is a game where inspiring trust is favourable, will you let us in on your inside knowledge here? What exactly in the rules of this particular game is it that would make Fea come out and vote so hastily and, as it may seem, randomly? And what does this signify? And why vote for Lottie, of all people?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

A very merry unbiiiiiiirthday to all you lovely creatures and personages of good repute!

(In other words, here and reading. )

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Regarding the Jabberwocky's throat-clearing as pointed out by our dear Queen of Hearts (I'm working backwards, sue me), combined with the Dodo's questioning of our resident newbie's vote - it seems to me that our dear Queen of Hearts is awfully lynch-happy. I won't vote for her today (that would be such a welcome, wouldn't it?) but I'm keeping it in mind.

(Also I stole her tarts, I'd hate to get on her bad side so early.)

Our Gryphon is being particularly mysterious, which has me going "curiouser and curiouser".

To the Queen of Hearts - I mentioned the Red Queen's vote once before the quote of mine you mention - when I said "How iiiiinteresting" in my first post.

Holy oysters, Batman! The Gryphon thinks I look "ok" on Day 1? Clearly I must be evil.

The Cheshire Cat's grin creeps me out a bit. I think I need another tart to bolster my fading nerves.

The Dodo gets a pass today simply for the words "sesquipidalian loquaciousness". Made my day, that did.

On a slightly more serious note (serious? We're all mad here!) the Duchess strikes me as posting a lot of fluff and not a lot of content, which doesn't remind me of an innocent incarnation of said Duchess. But it is Day 1, and we are all quite mad... Anywhoo.

KING OF HEARTS DON'T YOU TOUCH MY TARTS THEY'RE MIIIIINE I STOLE THEM FAIR AND SQUARE I mean um.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Skip

Okay then, seeing how this is a game where inspiring trust is favourable, will you let us in on your inside knowledge here? What exactly in the rules of this particular game is it that would make Fea come out and vote so hastily and, as it may seem, randomly? And what does this signify? And why vote for Lottie, of all people?

Well, since you ask so nicely, min svenska vän. And besides since quite a lot of people have already remarked on it, we can maybe stop fishing reactions. My key to Fea's behaviour is simple: she wants to use her retraction as soon as possible because she dislikes retractable votes. Do I get points/cookies now, Fea? Sometime ago there was another game which had this "one retraction per game" rule and she used hers totally randomly in the beginning of Day1, caused a lot of discussion and then came back later, explained, retracted and revoted and was happy to be rid of the retractable vote. So that's why I heavily suspect that's the case again.

Why vote Lottie, then? That's what I don't know. Maybe it was totally random. Or maybe Fea wanted to see who'd jump on her suspicion or maybe she thought there was something slightly odd with Lottie and wanted to test her reaction. If you want a definite answer, ask Fea, not me...

Originally Posted by Shasta

Holy oysters, Batman! The Gryphon thinks I look "ok" on Day 1? Clearly I must be evil.

Yes!

[Morsul the Dark]

Either the voters are using their one time retractable votes in silly posts(therefore wasting them) or they'll later say when voting an innocent "I realized they were innocent After voting but could do nothing about it...sorry.

Either way I find the votes meaningless and suspect.

Other than that have 3 minutes till I leave for work won't get much done today I'll be on for an hour later at which point I'll have to vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyone who has played with her before in games which have a certain rule (which this game has) should be able to read her behaviour as well as I do. Provided that I'm correct, of course...

Ah, okay. Now I see (probably), whatever.

I'll be probably going now and back in... some hours. Rather later, I think, but still quite some time before the DL (of course before the DL, given that it's some 5AM my time).

[Loslote]

*removed smilies*

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Yay!! It's time to hunt for the Wolvsies and have some tea!! Speaking of tea...Sally would you be so kind as to move your furry little behind into a different pot? That's my homemade blueberry pie with raisins tea you're sleeping in....

Again, forced cheer in being anti-werewolf screams wolf.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I asked you to move, can't say I didn't....Sheez....Doormice...always so stubborn...

As for YOU Ms. Mira March Hare, I do believe you owe me an unbirthday present!! Yours is the tea by the way....If Sally ever decides to move that is.....And please be careful of the china!! I had to solve an extremely difficult riddle that Tweedledum set for me, made all the more difficult as Tweedledee was not there to put in his half of the riddle!

Oh, and Mira, I'm not so sure I agree with you that Fea's entrance was "smashing". YOUR entrance was smashing *looks at broken teacups in slight dismay*. Hers was rather...well...very royal like.....All up in everyone's business without saying anything. The polite thing to do would have to AT LEAST have sat down for a cup of my steeped tea (by the by Sally, I used some of your hair for that tea, hope you don't mind....I cut a slight clump off whilst you were sleeping in the pumpkin seed tea pot...).

As for all this Lottie nonsense....Well, I very much like singing. So I don't see anything THAT particular with her currently....but if she so much as touches my top hat.....

Oh, and Shasta Knave, I hear you don't get fed properly over at that castle....Would you like some tea?? Although take it to go, I don't know how well I'll be able to stand your elongations of the I's.....

Toodles for now, I must be off to get some more horse radish for my horse radish and beets tea!

Xed with Nerwen

Very early list/IC banter; he's already interacting a lot with Sally.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Sorry it took me so long....Those horse radishes were being rather stubborn, stampeding all of the place and trampling my feet.... Sheez...(AKA: Read the Admin thread). And now there are so many people that I don't think I have enough tea Well, we shall make do!! And Sally, what have I said about that tea pot!! Anywhoseits, I shall return again after I have read all these posts.

Banter with Sally again; says he's back.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

First off, hello wintywinty and welcome!! Second:

Oh my...he really does seem to be a plain old innocent for this comment....yet Nerwen brings up an excellent point:

He very well could be simply a confused innocent or a really smart wolfywolfy....Currently I'm inclined to believe the first.

And Nerwen's sigh threw me off there too...A sigh of exasperation. Perhaps either because she is exasperated with the newbie thing or perhaps a sigh of exasperation of her fellow packmate?

You would be too if you were as crazy about tea as I am!! Oh, and happy unbirthday!

Nothing about Day 1 is meaningless. What happens on Day 1 is our foundation for what is to happen in the later Days. Yes, most of the posting at the start is purely IC, random and sometimes completely pointless, but not always. There was a game not too long ago that I played where I got Hunter-Killed by a certain someone on Day 1 *coughMORSULcough* and most of that Day's discussion was purely speculation on some of the rules and thus led to the votes that were placed. (Or maybe I'm mixing that up with the game BEFORE it was restarted )

Come on now chica (sorry...just finished performing West Side Story last weekend, Puerto Rican accent still in head), you've played with me before, have you not? It was all IC posting at that point.

Sorry, would have posted more if it weren't for the fact that, as I have mentioned in the Admin thread, a good portion of the Day happens to occur during my sleeping hours and then six hours of schooling (with rehearsals every once in awhile afterwards) so I could not get much in other then IC stuff. By the way, it is a pleasure to play with you for the first time!

Love you too.

As for all of this retracting of the votes this early, I see the points raised on why it we should do it. However, personally, knowing my track record, I'm going to hold onto mine for a Day or two more.

As it stands I am still at a loss of who to suspect and who not to...Lottie kinda stands out for me right now, but that might just be because she thinks I'm a Wolf.

I'm giving Agan a vote pass seeing as it has been a year since she's last played. I'm also giving a vote pass to skip and ww as the newbies to the game....Which leave everyone else.....

Okay, I'm going to go do a little more scrutinizing after I've found something to eat....

Jumps on Nerwen and my points against WW and Nerwen, respectively, explains that Day 1s can be helpful, says he'll keep his retraction for now and says that I stand out as a suspect because I suspect him.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Quickly doing this for everyone:

Fea -------> Lottie
winty -------> Brinn (please correct me if I'm wrong on this....)
Lommy ---> Lottie(2)
Boro ------> Glirdan
Greenie --> Lottie(3)
Morsul ----> winty
Agan ------> Mira
Legate ----> Lottie(4)
Skip -------> Fea

Okay, will be back shortly

Vote count; not much there.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Okay, so I am back and with a slightly clearer (albeit, it's still a little hazed, not gonna lie) view on things.

Nogrod – Cheshire Cat

For some reason I never suspect this guy....Maybe it's just because he always comes across as the level-headed one among us (which is saying something this time around) or maybe it's just a charm he has....Although his vote for Fea has me a little worried. Voting for her simply for initiating the voting for Lottie? What reason is that? The bandwagon for Lottie (at least the voting anyway) did not start until well AFTER she had voted.....Hmmm....

Wintywinty – Tweedledum

Newbie pass

Boro88 – the Caterpillar

No read on him as of yet....Want to vote him but that would just be a retaliation vote

Isabellkya – White Rabbit

Has been rather quiet this time around. Maybe there is something RL that is preventing her from being here, or maybe it is a Wolvish tactic to try and sneak by?

Mira – March Hare

I have no read of my fellow tea patron

Sally – the Dormouse

Seems to be, well, Sally: Confusing and unreadable (and thank you for getting out of the tea pot!) yet I see nothing that indicates Wolvish behavior....yet.

Agan – Queen of Hearts

Giving a pass to her as she hasn't played in a year and I don't want to see her go just yet and has also been making some wonderful contributions to the game.

Inzil – King of Hearts

No read on His Grace

Shasta – Knave of Hearts

His vote for Greenie came out of nowhere and looks to me as if it is a Wolf trying to perhaps save one of his own from being lynched. Yet would a Wolf be so bold?

Lottie – Duchess

I don't know what to make of her....However, last time I played with her, we both were innocent and she got lynched Day 1....after having pinned all three Wolves on Day 1 (The sad thing is it happened to me on Day 2)

Nerwen – the Dodo

Seemed a little too overprotective of winty initially, but that could easily have been her being exasperated with the newbie.

Legate – Jabberwocky

Has definitely been one of the few people talking sense all Day. Yet his vote for Lottie has me a little perplexed. He stated that he did not like all the bandwagon votes and suspicions for her yet he himself later voted her? True he had stated suspicions of her for awhile, but his vote almost seems as if he's making it to ensure her being lynched....Hmmmm....

Morsul – the Mock Turtle

Has seemed very Morsul like....which bugs me....Yet last time I voted him, he ended up being the Hunter and he Hunter killed me....So I think I'm going to leave him be for the time being.

Nienna – White Queen

Seems to be flying under the radar....perhaps a little too much, at least for my liking. Wolvish tactic to stay clear perhaps?

Fea – Red Queen

Her vote for Lottie is the only thing that holds any suspicion for me, yet it could very well be a Cobbler tactic....However, as pointed out earlier, the Cobbler can prove to be our downfall later in the game. Or maybe the vote was simply to be rid of her retractable vote?

Skip – Humpty Dumpty

Also getting a Newbie pass

Lommy – the Gryphon

I have no read on her.

Greenie – White Knight

Her vote for Lottie seems kind of like a bandwagon vote to me.

Brinniel – Tweedledee

Her posts all well thought out and full of substance


Okay, will make a list, will post it in a few and perhaps with my vote as well.

EDIT: Xed with Zil, Boro, Moddess and who knows who else....

First off, I notice that he gives both long-time-away player pass to Agan and then also says she made "wonderful contributions" when he disagrees with her about retractables (which were the main issue).

Also he flip-flops about Legate, saying that he make sense but also that his Lottie-vote was worrysome.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

A Vote Update!


Fea -------> Lottie
winty -------> Brinn
Lommy ---> Lottie(2)
Boro ------> Glirdan
Greenie --> Lottie(3)
Morsul ----> winty
Agan ------> Mira
Legate ----> Lottie(4)
Skip -------> Fea
Shasta ----> Greenie
Sally -------> Legate
Nogrod ---> Fea(2)
Zil ----------> Mira(2)

Another vote count...

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Not Voting
Winty
Skip
Agan
Brinn
Morsul

Probably Won't Vote
Sally
Nerwen
Boro
Izzy
Mira
Inzil
Nienna
Lommy

Could Vote For
Fea
Lottie
Nogrod
Legate
Greenie
Shasta


By the by, this is not necessarily in order (as in the could vote for, just because Fea is at the top does not mean she's my top suspect)

EDIT: Xed wiht Lottie, Brinn and Izzy

List. He has all three people who could have been lynched in that list. Note that, I'll refer to it again later. He also spreads out Sally, Agan, and Greenie among the three categories. He keeps up Greenie-suspicion throughout but without making any real effort to suspect her.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

You know Lottie, I've read you're reasoning of suspecting me and I still don't quite understand it. Could I ask you to clarify?

Asks me to clarify my reasoning.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

You trying to *hint* at something here? Perhaps you're fellow packmates? But you know what, I know that you would not do something THAT obvious.

Can you explain to me how and when I have been fraternizing with Greenie and Agan? I have not said two words to either of them. As for Sally, yes, I have fraternized with her, IC, as, if you have read the books, our characters go together.

Edit: Xed since last post

Yeah, I was trying to hint. I couldn't just put Trust: Boro because that would be too obvious and suspicious, so I included Zil and Nog, who I was (and am) fairly certain about.

And perhaps fraternizing is not the right word. "Linked to" might be better...still not quite, though.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Post # 142 Read there.

And you would know this how? Only way you would be able to know anything about what I would do is if you're a mind-reader.

I knew you wouldn't vote Greenie because I was (and still am) fairly convinced you are packmates, plus you hadn't really put any effort into looking at her or suspecting her - just saying a general "she looks off".

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Okay, I'm going to vote.....

[*highlight]++Shasta[/highlight*]

Yes, this will probably end up being a throw-away vote, but I actually do find him a little suspicious. His vote for Greenie came out of absolutely nowhere and really had no substantial backing to it.

Votes Shasta for voting one of the people he said he suspected. He never really looks closely at him, although he (Shasta) does appear in his "might vote" category.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Well, I didn't vote Lottie cuz I actually think the bandwagon for her is ridiculous, I really do. I want to see her stay. She's pretty good at picking out the Wolves, why the get rid of her?

So you don't see why you should get rid of me, but you throw your vote away on someone no one has suspected at all anyway (rather like Sally's Legate vote, which is why I was confused earlier, sorry).

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Gah! Sorry I haven't been on at all today, haven't been home at all since yesterday morning and I'm just getting in now and have only been able to check up on who was killed and I am sad to see Boro gone. I am going to go back and read through things now.

EDIT: Xed with Greenie

Like I have said, the "I am sad to see Boro gone" line looks forcedly pro-village.

Conclusions: Glirdy looks very wolfly.

Pre-edit: I will have xed since Legate.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

*removed smilies*



Again, forced cheer in being anti-werewolf screams wolf.



Very early list/IC banter; he's already interacting a lot with Sally.



Banter with Sally again; says he's back.



Jumps on Nerwen and my points against WW and Nerwen, respectively, explains that Day 1s can be helpful, says he'll keep his retraction for now and says that I stand out as a suspect because I suspect him.



Vote count; not much there.



First off, I notice that he gives both long-time-away player pass to Agan and then also says she made "wonderful contributions" when he disagrees with her about retractables (which were the main issue).

Also he flip-flops about Legate, saying that he make sense but also that his Lottie-vote was worrysome.



Another vote count...



List. He has all three people who could have been lynched in that list. Note that, I'll refer to it again later. He also spreads out Sally, Agan, and Greenie among the three categories. He keeps up Greenie-suspicion throughout but without making any real effort to suspect her.



Asks me to clarify my reasoning.



Yeah, I was trying to hint. I couldn't just put Trust: Boro because that would be too obvious and suspicious, so I included Zil and Nog, who I was (and am) fairly certain about.

And perhaps fraternizing is not the right word. "Linked to" might be better...still not quite, though.



I knew you wouldn't vote Greenie because I was (and still am) fairly convinced you are packmates, plus you hadn't really put any effort into looking at her or suspecting her - just saying a general "she looks off".



Votes Shasta for voting one of the people he said he suspected. He never really looks closely at him, although he (Shasta) does appear in his "might vote" category.



So you don't see why you should get rid of me, but you throw your vote away on someone no one has suspected at all anyway (rather like Sally's Legate vote, which is why I was confused earlier, sorry).



Like I have said, the "I am sad to see Boro gone" line looks forcedly pro-village.

Conclusions: Glirdy looks very wolfly.

Pre-edit: I will have xed since Legate.

And again, Lottie, some of these points just plain stink. IC banter? Saying "I'm sad to see Boro gone?" I'm also noticing that all of your suspicions are reliant on all four being wolves; i.e. if you're wrong about one, you don't have much reasoning for the other three.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And again, Lottie, some of these points just plain stink. IC banter? Saying "I'm sad to see Boro gone?" I'm also noticing that all of your suspicions are reliant on all four being wolves; i.e. if you're wrong about one, you don't have much reasoning for the other three.

Not all of my suspicions are reliant on that at all. Some of my points are, and that's mostly just my supporting my theory that they are a pack. A lot of my suspicions stand on their own - particularly Sally and Glirdy and The Mysterious Case of the Throwaway Votes.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I sincerely hope that you will not succeed in your attempt. Talking about getting people lynched, I'd be interested to know who people are going to vote. I want to go to bed as soon as possible, but I'd like to hear some more opinions before voting..

EDIT: x-ed with Noggy, Winty & Glirdy

Sally or Glirdy (barring a Seer reveal). I'd consider voting for you or Agan, but to be honest, I'm *far* more convinced about those two. You and Agan I could be wrong about, I won't deny that - Sally and Glirdy I'm pretty darn sure about.

This is not to say I don't still suspect Greenie or Agan, just saying that I'm not positive anymore.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Something that bothers me is that Lottie has been pouncing on her four suspects for "acting too innocent", but misses this completely. Lottie, I realize you're a known innocent, but really? Just because you think you've spotted all four wolves in the first day doesn't mean you stop looking at anyone else and focus solely on those four. For example, several of the points in your "Sal-alysis" are pretty clearly grasping at straws.

I honestly agree with this quote by Agan:



I think you'd be a great help to the village if you'd take off your wolf-colored glasses.

You missed this quote of Lommy's back in #251:



But anyway.



Really? I didn't feel like you were ever a major candidate for the lynch... so why did you "have" to stay on the defensive?



Lottie has been doing the same thing and she's a confirmed innocent. In fact, she about said the exact same thing. I notice as well that there was a rather large amount of Sally suspicion before your post... so to me this looks a lot like a wolf trying to be the first vote on a wagon in order to look better.

And ha, Nienna thinks the same.





That was actually the second vote, and the way you said "oh well, guess it's a bandwagon now" kind of bothers me, not gonna lie.


Zil says this in #276:



...but then goes on to (seemingly) only consider Lottie's four suspects. Odd, that.




Doth I detect a challenge?

Haha, Agan agrees about Morsul too.






I disagree. I've been a frustrated innocent before (right, guys? *waves crossbow*) and honestly, Sally had just come back to two votes and a bucketload of suspicion. I'd probably be frustrated too.




Here's another quote that bothers me - you were looking for something to say that would make you seem more helpful?


I will say, after Greenie's #304, that my suspicion of her has lessened. Her defense of her vote seemed innocent to me.




More straws. One - this is a themed game. Two - why not be sad to see a fellow innocent gone? I don't agree with this reasoning and never have.


Hee hee. Legate agrees.




...And Zil agrees with what I said about Mira



Stop stealing my thoughts, people!




This bugs me. You say my reasoning is bad, but don't explain why.




This really bothers me too. I didn't have much of a read on Glirdan yet, but the tone of that remark was definitely bandwagonnish (especially since Sally seems to be the D2 easy lynch).


...and Greenie agrees.






Winty, do you think you could maybe say why you think that? Because as of right now it looks like you're just sheeping Lottie.

1. That's Morsul's style; he always sounds like that. Plus, it was about the lynch, something which he *would* have had a chance to affect. Agan and Glirdy's were about the Night kill, something which only wolf!them could have affected - thus acting surprised and sorrowful gives off the impression that they did *not* play a part in his death.

2. That sort of over-the-topness in banter and village-acting has always annoyed me, and I have suspected people on it many a time before.

3. I might have to look at other people. Agan and Greenie are being annoyingly innocent-looking. I might have to actually think now!

Joking, that. I have been thinking so far; I just haven't seen anything else that looked wolfly. I'll look closer, k?

EDIT: xed

[Brinniel]

Those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch:

Inziladun

I guess it's possible. And now that I think of it, if Glirdan had been lynched and he was a wolf, Sally could be in some pretty good graces right now, even without a false Seer-reveal.
Still, I don't know that it's all that likely Glirdan is a wolf.

Nerwen (bordering on wishy-washy)

Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.

Did she expect more people to pick up on her Seer-hints than was in fact the case?

skip

He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.

Aganzir

Morsul looks better to me today, I can follow his logic about sally. However I don't think the fact that she tried to lynch Glirdan tells us anything about his role.

Those eager for one:

Morsul

++Glirdan

It got me one wolf so maybe It'll get me another.

Nienna

Morsul, that line from Sally has been bothering me as well. I think that the chances are actually quite high that Glirdy is a wolf. She may have been thinking that if I switched and he was a wolf she would be redeemed or she could make a false seer-reveal and if she was lynched it could be passed off as the meaningless banter of a wolf trying to save herself.

Lommy

I think it looks like Glirdan was Sally's fellow wolf, not because of any seer reveal plot (I don't believe in that) but just because it looks like that. I think Sally could've tried to make Glirdan look better - or at least make us really divided about him - by attacking him so strongly in the end. What he said about Zil makes me feel it's pure bluff meant to confuse us, and means Zil's probably innocent. She wouldn't have dared to highlight two of her fellows that way. Also, Glirdan's attack on Sally was very wolf-on-wolvish, I think Sally's mates would've known she's in trouble and used that to their own advantage... (not necessarily all of them, but at least one or two. Which makes me think, ha, we have only lynched a cobbler and a wolf this far. Go us!)

Wishy-washy:

Legate

Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.

Nogrod

(see post 486)


Votes

Morsul -> Glirdan
Brinn -> Glirdan (2)
Greenie -> Nogrod
Legate -> Inzil
Agan -> Inzil (2)
Lommy -> Glirdan (3)
Skip -> Shasta
Shasta -> Greenie
Nog -> Glirdan (4)
Zil -> Glirdan (5)
Lottie -> Glirdan (6)
Nienna - > Glirdan (7)
Nerwen - > Glirdan (8)

Who looks bad:

Legate: He was very wishy-washy with his thoughts of Glirdan, leaving the possibilities open but not really sticking to one side or the other. Then he ends up voting Inziladun.

Aganzir: That's a big maybe. She would look especially bad if Inzil is innocent since it'd look like she's trying to start another bandwagon. But then, Agan isn't the type to be hesitant about running over her packmates if it made her look better.

Nogrod: His wishy-washy attitude about it. He votes Glirdan but only until it looks evident that he probably can't be saved. An easy spot to hide in a bandwagon.

Nerwen: She seems slightly hesitant about a Glirdan lynch, but ends up going with the flow by the end of the Day...a bit suspicious to me.

Who looks good:

Lommy: She was pretty eager to lynch Glirdan from the start...too eager for wolf-on-wolf, I think.

Nienna: Same as Lommy, though not quite as eager.

[Thinlómien]

Back here.

Originally Posted by Shasta

However, Lommy did put forward that theory about a Shasta-wolf... it makes one wonder.

If it helps you dearie, my analysis this far looks like you're very unlikely wolf.

Not really anything else to commnet on right now.

Off to continue my analysis.

[Nienna]

I'm here. I don't really have much to contribute as people are already doing a thorough analysis of Greenie, Glirdy, and Nog. I'm working on a pretty massive project but I'll be in and out.

Nog is the most worrisome for me today. I would love to hear more from him but he's seeming very nonchalant.

[Thinlómien]

Decided to post my massive post in three parts. Two other parts still in progress...


General issues

Since I was rereading the thread I managed to glimpse the rules and noticed the Unicorn, of whom I had completely forgotten about. So we do have a chance to get Greenie back and tell her dreams! Yay. But of course, we shouldn't put our hopes in that, the possibilty that the Unicorn is going to bring her back and not someone else is quite slight...


Who could Miss Greenie have dreamt of on Night1?

people who didn't post anything before she left: -
people who only posted banter etc until after she left: Mira, Shasta, Boro (she xed with Boro's first serious post when she left)

Now, it's possible she dreamt of wolf Shasta on Night1, but then she would have come out if she also dreamt of wolf Nogrod, and as I feel quite confident about Nog's guilt, I think she didn't dream of Shasta ('cos she couldn't have dreamt of innocent Shasta either). However, if Nogrod turns out innocent, then looking at Shasta would make sense.

I think her Night1 dream was Boro or innocent Mira, her Night2 dream was innocent Skippy and her Night3 dream was wolf Nogrod. Ergo (at least until I complete my analysis on the wolves), Skip looks good to me, Mira possibly a bit better than before and Nogrod quite bad.

[Thinlómien]

Sally's interactions with people

Sally towards others

Day1
- banter with Mira and Zil
- thanks Agan for clarification, sort of banter with Morsul
- agrees with Shasta about stuff, for example Morsul being hypocritical
- instructs Skip to use highlighting
- reacts to Shasta's drawback from Morsul suspicion by saying she still thinks he might've been serious Somehow this makes me think both Shasta and Morsul are innocent - flimsy grounds I know, but would a wolf jump on a fellow's random suspicion and would the other wolf then draw it back? or would a wolf jump on an innocent's erraneous point on her fellow?
- jokingly says all Europeans (=Lommy, Legate, Greenie, Agan, Nog) are evil
- is concerned about Legate's vote
- is surprised by Shasta's vote for Greenie
- votes Legate
- says that voting Legate was a better option than voting Winty, Brinn or Mira
- explains to Morsul what she meant by "lemming"
- wants Shasta to stop "following" her

Day2
- banter with Nienna
- Nogrod is suspiciously quiet, Winty's newbie pass is gone and he's suspicious, (curious interlude: first person mentioned on her list was Glirdan the fellow wolf, second was Nogrod whom I suspect of being a fellow wolf and third is Winty... does it mean he's the last wolf?), no idea about Mira, Agan, Inzil is "plain and simple" not a wolf, Shasta's strange and possibly a wolf, Nerwen's not evil 'cos she's giving evil vibes, still suspicious of Legate, Morsul is an opportunistic bandwagoner wolf, Nienna's safe, not concerned of Skip or Brinn, slightly worried of Lommy
- suspects Shasta
- redirects questioning Nienna to her suspicions in an overtly friendly tone which makes me think Nienna is innocent... why try to buddy up a fellow wolf?
- tells Brinn to go to bed
- tells Skip he can still prevent her death
- is slightly offended for receiving Nienna's vote and no explanation A wolvish "Et tu, mi Brute?"or the show of a dying lycanthrope?
- tells Nienna to lynch Glirdy


Others towards Sally

Day1
- Nerwen banters with her
- Lommy has no read on Sally because of banter
- Legate is surprised by Sally's amount of sense thus far ...what?
- Aganzir wants more content from her
- Lommy places her in the middle of three categories, calls her crazy
- Agan doesn't want to repeat herself to her
- Agan clarifies Greenie's words to her
- Nog has no opinion of her, but used to think her too careful in the beginning
- Nienna claims she can read her and is not alarmed yet, won't vote her
- Nienna is worried by her avoiding people calling her wolf

Day2
- Nienna doesn't understand her
- Lommy questions Lottie's wolf quartet suspicion which includes her
- Legate doesn't like her vote from Day1 and will keep and eye on her
- Legate takes Lottie's aforementioned wolf quartet theory seriously
- Lommy considers her "Save Private Lottie operation" very fishy, mentions she discredited Legate's vote and says she's now one of her new suspects
- Agan wants more substance from her and is "not too fond of her"
- Nerwen speculates on her possible wolvish chagrin
- Lommy puts her to the most suspicious of five categories, doesn't like wishy-washyness and throwaway vote
- Morsul votes her, dislikes her admitting starting a bandwagon and likes Lottie's suspicion against her
- Nienna thinks Morsul's vote on her is wolf-on-wolf
- Nerwen votes her, says she seems the most suspicious thus far and calls it a bandwagon
- Zil says she's the most suspicious of Lottie's quartet
- Agan has nothing against her death and thinks her death would be educational
- Agan thinks she should be suspected more often so that she'd be more serious
- Mira is "on the fence" about her
- Agan is unsure about her
- Lommy is not convinced enought of her guilt to give her a third vote
- Legate is unsure and suspicious about her
- Legate thinks her questionable and thinks other people have raised good points against her, places her in the most suspicious of three categories
- Legate considers voting her since there's support for that suspicion
- Winty considers voting her
- Legate suspects she will be voted by many
- Nogrod says there are fair points against her
- Legate is torn between voting her and two others
- Shasta thinks Morsul's suspicion of her looks opportunistic
- Legate solomonises about her and Inzil, thinks he'll vote her, note: Legate's general reluctant and wishy-washy suspicion of her doesn't look good at all
- Morsul's offended by her calling him a lemming If he was a fellow, I think they'd sort it out overNight... probably
- Legate votes her, says her latest post made his decision for him
- Nogrod wonders about her comments about Zil and Brinn
- Winty votes her
- Morsul likes her defenses but won't change his vote
- Nogrod starts suspecting her on losing her nerve
- Nog votes her, thinks she's more suspicious than Glirdy
- Nienna likes Nog's points against her
- Nienna tells her to stop defending herself and start accusing people
- Nienna asks for details about her suspicions
- Brinn thinks her flock-behaviour, defensiveness and throwaway vote speak against her
- Brinn votes her
- Skip asks if she's dying
- Skip suspects her a little and thinks it'd be interesting to know her role but also has some sympathy for her
- Nienna votes her

Conclusions a bit later, I don't want to make this any longer anymore!


xed with Shasta

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Me

1 Unicorn: when they die I will put the names of all of the dead in a hat, including the Unicorn’s name. If the name I pick out is of an innocent (or Cobbler) they will come back to life, if it’s a Wolf than no one comes back. Everyone comes back as an Ordo (except Cobbler still Cobbler, and Shirriff still Shirriff if their partner is still alive).

Just so it's there for everyone to understand.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Honestly, I may be biased (considering Nerwen and I are royal consorts ) but the way she's defending herself definitely says "frustrated innocent" to me.

However, I did say the same thing about Sally... bah.

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.

Right now I think I'd like to vote Mira, but she hasn't said anything in response to my analysis yet.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.

Given the amount of Greenie's flip-flopping, she most probably wasn't.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I'm angry now, if that makes you feel better– see my last post. I just don't lose my cool easily– you should know that by now. But I'm in the process of losing it at the moment, let me tell you.

Besides, Lommy, if I'd been reacting more strongly from the first, are you sure you wouldn't now be saying, "Ooo! Defensive! Clearly a cornered wolf!"

Well, point taken, I would probably have said that. But I would have expected something like "where did that bandwagon come up from? " or some similar sarcastic slightly accusing comment, that would've fitted you (better than losing your nerve or something), and the lack of it just caught my eye.

And no, seeing you angry doesn't definitely make me feel better, but worse, because this is supposed to be a fun game and I don't enjoy seeing anyone I like (regardless how much I suspect or don't suspect them in the current game) feeling bad.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mean the wolf, whoever it is, wouldn't have needed to push very hard to get an innocent lynched. Though that isn't a sure guide– other things do come into it, like individual temperament.

Ah okay, now I see, thanks for clarification. But I think it's really more about individual temperament and time issues - unless the wolf felt s/he was in danger especially. (So if we really want to look at somebody based on this point, it would be those who were under some suspicion and pushing for some lynch and maybe those who weren't under any suspicion and not pushing for any lynch.)


edit: xed with Aganx2 and Nerwie

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, point taken, I would probably have said that. But I would have expected something like "where did that bandwagon come up from? " or some similar sarcastic slightly accusing comment, that would've fitted you (better than losing your nerve or something), and the lack of it just caught my eye.

And no, seeing you angry doesn't definitely make me feel better, but worse, because this is supposed to be a fun game and I don't enjoy seeing anyone I like (regardless how much I suspect or don't suspect them in the current game) feeling bad.

Oh, I'm all right now. I just had to get that off my chest. It's just that the sheer futility of arguing with Aganzir when she's already made up her mind was getting to me.

Besides, I'd rather have been spending this time looking for the fourth wolf. We've done so well– I don't want this to be one of those games where the village triumphs in the early days, then gets lazy and lynches people semi-randomly "because we can afford to"... and in the end the wolves win.

And– apart from our known innocent, the make-up of the village is: several elite players, any of whom could pull off a lone-wolf victory, two complete newbies who are hard to read for that reason, and Mira who just pops up and says "hi guys" at random intervals. Add to that the fact that we don't know how many wolves we have... yeah, we could still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I've seen it before.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Right now I think I'd like to vote Mira, but she hasn't said anything in response to my analysis yet.

Sorry about that, dear. Just had a nice romp through downtown Boston rush hour traffic to just barely make my bus. Responses coming.

[Aganzir]

I'd like to go to sleep so I'm just going to vote now...

++Nerwen

I suspect her the most.

But regardless of your role, or mine, I'm sorry to have upset you.

Oh and if somebody doesn't have anything to do (gah why did I remember this only now when I was thinking of it right before coming online?) they might go and see if they can draw any conclusions from Lommy's posts about Glirdy & sally's interactions with us and my post about Nog's...