WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

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Originally Posted by wintywinty

Well considering how noone has died yet, nobody has a real reason for voting for anyone, therefore voting randomly is just as much a reason as voting for any other reason.

Okay, as a fellow newbie I'm thinking aloud here. There are 5 baddies (4 wolfs and a cobbler) and 15 innocents, right?

So, for an innocent, what are the chances of a completely random vote striking home? 5/19 or 26 % And the odds for collateral damage, as the US army so evasively expresses it, are subsequently 74 %. Unplayable odds, those. Of course, there's a good chance that any vote at this stage may prove meaningless but nevertheless:

A seemingly random vote makes much more immediate sense for a wolf, does it not? An innocent person getting lynched is no problem for a wolf, and a wolf may even vote for a fellow wolf to avoid suspicions later on. Chances are that the wolf-mate won't get lynched anyhow.