Arda Cup Football 2010

[the phantom]

(Sorry about the link. It was April Fool's Day and I couldn't resist. )

Using friendlies to predict the course of a tournament is a tricky business. One never knows precisely what the teams are aiming for during their run-throughs and what they are holding back as a strategy. In addition, a team can look rather off pre-tournament and suddenly find chemistry during group play. With that said (and thus our behinds completely covered) here is the after-friendly breakdown by MESPN’s football blogging team, featuring their best and most vague guesses as to what's going on.

Aman- They showed the ability to hang tough with the rough teams and run with the quick teams. They were very sound fundamentally, though undoubtedly they will have to kick up the effort a notch once the matches mean more. A decent round of friendlies for them overall, but not statistically dominant by any means, so there shouldn’t be any overconfidence there.

Barad-Dur- The offense appears to be, for the most part, primed and ready to go, and captain Sauron says that the sub-par defensive performance was partly due to all focus being on bringing the offense together. Also, it appears that their plus one scoring margin does not accurately reflect that shot margin they enjoyed against their foes, so their prospects are likely to average out to a better level.

Barrow-Downs- They began things with a couple of ho-hum ties in which they appeared content just to get a bit of practice in, but in the last couple games they turned things up a bit, making sure that they’re ready to go full speed into the tournament. The fact that they weren’t merely dominated athletically by Gondolin and Numenor is promising, though we’ll have to see if they are able to raise their game as many levels as the other elite teams when it counts.

Beleriand- They played in a similar manner to what they will in the tournament, and demonstrated the ability to keep matches close against all foes, though they only managed to scrape out two ties. Once they up the intensity and speed for the tournament, they will perhaps be better able to translate their efforts into victories, so long as their execution remains constant.

Breeland- They played in a rather loose and relaxed manner in the friendlies, but that is the way they prefer to play anyway, so in group play we can expect more of the same from the offense, but who knows if the defense will be able to rise to the occasion. Captain Strider says that they will, and that friendlies was merely “fun-time” for the team. “We’ve been training hard and needed a break from the grind.”

Bywater- In playing some rather gifted athletic teams, Bywater impressed by staying even with them for the most part. The Hobbits in particular were much improved (this year’s Ent-draught is said to be a special new formula), and the Nazgul, Wizards, horse, and elf were as good as ever. Though they were outscored, they actually outshot their opponents, and the shots weren’t poor, and so they hope to see the numbers average out to their favor all on their own.

Dale- They experienced many problems in their friendlies. Their talent is fine, but they seem disjointed- unable to piece together their talent. How best to take advantage of Roac and Carc’s aerial abilities on defense? How to get the ball up to the forwards more efficiently? These are the questions that must be answered for Dale to find success. Most of all they have to cut down on the amount of shots they allow at their goal.

Dol Guldur- They were certainly unable to withstand the skill and speed of Gondolin in that second round, but other than that they held their own with everyone, outshooting Rohan, Gondor, and Thangorodrim. Since attack is what they plan to do, I’d say they’re ready to play in tournament form, particularly when you consider that Oropher’s save percentage has surely bottomed out. I mean, it can’t get worse, right?

Doriath- Things would be much worse for Doriath if not for Melian making twenty-one saves, which partly masked the problems their defense had. Their offensive problems were obvious, and they need to figure out a way to do something on that end- anything at all to provide some balance, even if it’s only holding onto the ball and denying their opponents.

Eithel Sirion- Overall solid work on their way to sweeping their friendlies. This team proved it has top of the line talent, but Maedhros and Fingon told their team last night that “Talent alone cannot win once everyone is playing with full effort and strategy.” So, while their fans should feel quite pleased and looking forward to making a run in this tournament, the team captains are guarding against overconfidence.

Gelion- They proved that they know how to play some smart defense, holding Barad-Dur, Rivendell, and Lorien to one goal. Now in group play we just have to wait and see if they’re able to put it in the net more with their counter going full speed. Captain Beren: “We will look to utilize the element of surprise with sudden counters, so obviously it wouldn’t do to give everyone a feel for it early on in the friendlies.”

Gondolin- In the first two games they proved that they have the athleticism and skill to run away with a game when the stakes aren’t high, and that seemed to be enough for them. In the games against Barrow-Downs and Aman they elected not to ramp up their attack to counter those more cohesive defenses, but rather focus on keeping the score low and saving energy for the groups. We’ll see if that strategy pays off, or if they lose their edge.

Gondor- All in all they played even with everyone, upping their game somewhat for the better teams and relaxing when possible. They seem to have gelled early and felt comfortable using the friendlies as a mere practice- making sure they were prepared for the skill they’d see from their competitors.

Gorgoroth- They showed some very tough defense for the majority of their matches, and the other teams in their group are going to experience some soreness win or lose. The only problem is, they’re getting carded right and left, and if they up the intensity for group play, will that mean even more cards? They’d better show some control there.

Havens- They played some good ball during the course of friendlies, and showed the ability to come out ahead in low and high-scoring affairs. Given the teams they played their defense was not exactly stellar, however it must be pointed out that they were always holding the lead and were perhaps content to let the other side take their shot at the scoreboard.

Ithilien- They kept the game at one goal difference gainst Valimar, Havens, and Wold, so nicely done there, except for the fact that losing by one goal doesn’t gain points. Though perhaps all this new team cared about was gaining confidence, and showing themselves they could compete while saving their best effort and tricks for group play. We’ll see.

Lorien- Overall decent play from Lorien, but they had better be ready to show more on offense once group play starts, though it’s true that they did what was necessary for the most part against defensive oriented teams. Galadriel was as solid as ever, so she’ll be pleased with that end. Celeborn needs more looks on the other end though if they plan to keep even against shot-happy teams. Galadriel can only save so many.

Minas Anor- They didn’t let any of their opponents run and hide on them, but the fact remains that they were statistically beaten and they need to do something different to start picking up points in the standings. Their shot selection was not good, which is probably the primary problem that needs to be addressed.

Misty Mts- They proved to be as violent as advertised, and didn’t let anyone get away from them, suffering three single goal losses and forging a tie. If other teams wear down before they do, it is then a promising style for later rounds especially. Though of course there is the problem of cards- it’s difficult to win when you’re one man short.

Mithrim- It was a nice warm-up for them, going up against several good teams and coming out ahead on the stat sheet every time. Once things get more serious, expect Turin and Beleg to turn up the heat like usual. They’ve worked together so much that they never have to worry about using friendlies to get rid of rust, and elected to rest for the most part during friendlies.

Nargothrond- Don’t jump off a cliff yet, Nargothrond fans. While they may have finished with no victories or ties, they were competitive in every contest and were even on the stat sheet at the end of friendlies. So while they certainly aren’t in a position to feel accomplished, they are poised to compete, and with an increase in efficiency can do just that.

Norbury- There’s no getting around the fact that Norbury lost their games and was beaten statistically to boot, but the die-hards aren’t panicking at this point, as Norbury was visibly playing with low energy and effort. It is quite usual for these lads to play according to the moment, rising to the occasion when necessary, particularly with late game heroics. This is a very frustrating team for a prognosticator to deal with.

Numenor- Opening with three solid wins, Numenor certainly showed that they hadn’t lost everything from last year, but their final game against Barrow-Downs wasn’t the way to end. Perhaps the critics are right when they say they’re missing the necessary flair this year. They look like they’ll have some success, but to go far they’ll have to find that edge.

Pelennor- They started off looking promising, but those last couple of ties with Bywater and Gondor were perhaps a bit lucky, as Theoden had to face more and tougher shots than his comrade on the other end of the pitch. He showed last year he’s up for a challenge, but the defense needs to protect him better.

Rivendell- Elrond was at it again, saving 15 of 17 shots he saw. But while allowing two goals in four games may look promising, the fact remains that the defense did not do a good enough job in getting the ball up into the other half of the field. And when they did, the possession game of the offense was off, and they weren’t able to secure the best shots. That needs to change if they want to advance deep.

Rohan- They had promising friendlies overall, showing that they were working well together and hanging around athletically with everyone they faced. The real downside was the way they finished, with Dol Guldur really able to be effective against their defense. They were lucky to get the tie in that one, and they’ll need to step it up in group play.

Thangorodrim- Up until Utumno no one was able to bother Thangordrim’s offense much, as they pretty well held it when they wanted and went where they wanted, and with finishers like they have naturally that led to goals. Always running out to three goal leads, there was never any reason for the defense to do their best, so we’ll have to see how they do when called upon.

Tirion- They played a rather curious round of friendlies. Successful (three wins and a tie), but not at all in the style expected. They kept their explosive offense reigned in, and instead played as if holding a three goal lead at all times, focusing on defense and holding the ball. They allowed fewer shots on their goal than any other team. Captain Feanor: “We expect to find ourselves ahead a lot, so we wanted to work on holding a lead. We’ll let loose with our offense once group play begins. No reason to waste energy now.”

Utumno- It definitely appeared as if Utumno was conserving their energy for group play, coasting along on their top-notch talent through the friendlies, content with a couple close wins and a tie. Knowing full well that Valimar could very likely be a playoff opponent, Utumno really went into a shell for that game, showing as little as possible to their foes. That’s a good strategy so long as Utumno is able to turn it on and play well full speed once it’s time.

Valimar- Their defense was suffocating and the offense was efficient, but we already knew they were savvy, experienced, and athletically capable (which translates to friendly wins). The question is, will they still be that effective once everyone is going all out against them? Will they find some fire? They never had to exert themselves, so their first major test in group play will tell much more about them.

Vinyamar- They played extremely conservatively and without any sort of life, almost as if wanting to fast forward to group play. With the talent they have and their style, it’s not completely surprising that even playing like that they managed not to lose, but not losing isn’t good enough once the tournament begins. They’d better be able to kick it up at this stage.

Wold- Despite picking up three wins and a tie, Wold shouldn’t get too comfortable. They had the fortune of playing exclusively against ineffective or apathetic offenses, and actually got out-shot by three of their four opponents. So while they were a pleasant surprise in not making errors and playing cohesively and with good spirit, they still need to improve to make a run.

[Boromir88]

*note: I seemed to have left my stat sheet on my laptop which I will not have access too all weekend. Therefor, I will not be able to give the teams top phantasy scorers of the friendlies for the final 4 groups. My apologies to all those loyal phantasy readers.

These two groups are the deepest and will be the most competive of the tournament. 6 teams have great talent and reasonable chances of making the playoffs. The other 2 are no slouches either, they are just unfortunate to get the tough draw. There will be no "sure and easy" wins in these groups

GROUP E

Misty Mountains- Their best weapon is physicality which can wear down and bruise their opponents. The problem isn't just running the risk of having players sent off with cards, but I can't see a hard-hitting defense being very effective against the teams in this group. The hardy Numenoreans are difficult to wear down and then there's Utumno, who's front line players will scare even the trolls. It may work to their advantage against Rivendell, but Elrond's teams are always composed and don't get drawn into making silly mistakes, like being coaxed into a foul. And as far as the defenses they'll be up against? They should consider getting 1-goal in 3 games a success.

Numenor- The previous 2 years the Numenoreans have put together some of the best tournament teams. I'm just not seeing the same fate this year. Tar Atanamir struggled in Numenor's last friendly, but I wouldn't worry about that. He'd be a fine GK for phantasy teams, as always, and still relatively cheap. They're lacking the scoring threat this year, especially when they will have to be up against the defenses of Rivendell and Utumno. And to be frank, if the Misty Mountains keeps all 11-players on the field they won't be easy for anyone to score on. Maybe starting the tournament will give the spark that turns into the brush-fire the Numenoreans will need, because right now they look like wet logs.

Rivendell- I'm going against the grain and saying Rivendell gets in instead of Numenor. Simply because of the defense, and the masterful goal-tending of Elrond. I would not be surprised if he doesn't concede a goal in any of these matches. What I noticed as a problem in the friendlies, is the defense played a little more open than usual. They are one of the best team-oriented defenses...great communicators and cover well for eachother, but they are not the best athletically. I do think Elrond will fix this, by tightening up his formation, which will limit the space, and metaphorically choke opposing offenses. The bigger question will be scoring. They don't have enough to go far in the tournament, but there is enough (with an impeccable defense) to get into the playoffs. The key player will be Arwen, who surprised everyone with impressive offensive numbers last year. What makes a player great though is being able to repeat, which she will have to do for Rivendell.

Utumno- A bit of a lackluster friendly, but Melkor didn't seem to interested or concerned about winning. He will be in the tournament, this is why he started up his own team in Utumno. We can safely assume Melkor will be one of the best MFers, as always, even with his lazy friendly workout. The balrog defense is just as physical as the Misty Mountains but they avoid the cards because they play wiser. They are masters of disguising dirty tackles, because they don't just go ramming into people with their shoulders. I expect Utumno to sweep the group, but they will not be easy wins by any means, which could be their ultimate demise in the tournament. Melkor's teams have a long history of starting out like an unstoppable category-5 hurricane but quickly diminish to a tropical storm by the time it reaches land.

Predicted Group Standings
1. Utumno
2. Rivendell
3. Numenor
4. Misty Mountains

GROUP F

Bywater- Shadowfax was a great addition to that defense, which greatly limitted opponents scoring opportunities. And if they keep getting more scoring chances than their opponents they're a nice upset pick. I can see them matching up well against Lorien and Valimar. The reason I have them being eliminated though is their shaky GK Cotton. Thangorodrim and Valimar have FWs who can not only blast the ball off their foot with authority, but put wicked movement on it when they have to. I don't see Cotton being good enough to stand up to those kind of shots, no matter how few chances he'll face because of a great defense.

Lorien- I must admit they've performed better than I expected in the friendlies, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Still, they're not going to get into a high scoring match with anyone. And defensively, while being good, I would not pick them as a Top-5 defense, they may not even be Top-10. Galadriel is a very good goal-tender, but she's slightly overrated, because you just don't think of her as a top-notch goalie. For instance, yes, I would take the more expensive Huan and Elrond in a heartbeat. But I would also take Tar Atanamir, Mandos, and Melian over Galadriel, and you can get them for the same cost.

Thangorodrim- Between Thangorodrim and Valimar you can pretty much flip them. However, while I think Valimar has a greater chance to win the group, I think Thangorodrim has an overall better chance of advancing. So, if they don't finish first, they'll likely wind up second, because they are that much better than Lorien and Bywater. Where Valimar, if they don't finish first, have a bigger chance to be upset by Bywater or Lorien simply because of their conservative style. Thangorodrim is the complete opposite, which does leave their defense vulnerable. However, it's hard for teams to exploit that vulnerability because their FWs and attacking-MFs always have the ball, and always push forward. For why I have them finishing 2nd though, see Valimar.

Valimar- We saw a different Manwe team than usual. You usually see a dreadfully conservative and terrible belief that they don't have to play, because if Eru wills it they will win, and if not they won't. However, we saw a different will in their match against Utumno, the will to win. They should have that same fire against Melkor's servants in Thangorodrim. The question is how do they play against Bywater and Lorien? We are hearing a different tune out of Valimar than usual though. Manwe said in Valimar's last press conference: "No. We still believe in the will of Eru. However, in the off-season we learned a valuable lesson from a brave and courageous hobbit. He had fate on his side, but did not sit comfortably and kick back at home, waiting for the Ring to levitate to Mordor and destroy itself. He acted and in doing so, made his own fortune. You have to, and if it is by Eru's fate we win, then we will."

Predicted Group Standings
1. Valimar
2. Thangorodrim
3. Bywater
4. Lorien

[Nogrod]

Due to a minor controversy and the strike of the AKM staff’s following thereafter we, the editorial board, have been left alone to make the stories – and you know how pathetic that can be. We decided to be frank with the matter.

It all began with Ugr Nogrendale’s paid visit to Minas Tirith to eat and drink with the Barrow-Downs team on the expense of the AKM – and the rumours that were sparked thereafter about free champagne running after the interview between him and the ‘Downers, the different paid luxuries not suitable to be detailed in any family-friendly site, travelling in the first class with unauthorised company criss-sross Minas Tirith etc…

As a result of these accusations of Gonzo journalism Hunter S. Thompson style, Mr. Nogrendale is banned form reporting for now. Sadly the other journalists are refusing to work unless they receive the same benefits he seem to have been enjoying. At this global economic situation the AKM has no other chance but to continue reporting the Arda Cup with editorial board’s efforts only. Whether it be good or bad will be up to you readers.

So soon to follow, there wil be the AKM editorial board’s look at the group-phase.

But first of all we need to deal with MESPN networks’ comments on teams doing their own stuff during the friendlies and thus the friendlies not being a reliable meter to value the teams. And our comment is that of an agreement: just think how Gondolin played two matches with a full swing and then fell down, how Barrow-Downs suddenly turned an excellent team after two initial half-hearted draws, how Tirion’s forwards seem to have been saving themselves, how about if the Breelander trio is just not concerned with friendlies? Et cetera…

But there is one statistic that normally doesn’t lie. And that is the goalie’s performance. It would take a lot of nerve and intentional fooling for the goalie to admit a goal when s/he had a chance to save it. So we will read the keeper-stats as they are. Otherwise we’re looking at the general performance and for the best explanations for the games to result the way they did.

[Nogrod]

Group D

Whatever the motivation of any team in the friendlies, Eithel Sirion has been an impressive team. Maglor’s saving percent of 81% is first class and their scoring percentage of 20,8% is simply the best there is thus far. Every team in this tournament shoud be afraid of the quintet: Maedhros, Fingon, Hador, Gwindor and Nienor. They really know how to put the ball in the back of the net.

In the same vein we have no faith in the Dale team to make it through the group play. MESPN entertained the idea how to take advantage of Roac’s and Carc’s aerial abilities. Well we can answer that: by making them attacking midfielders or forwards. But that clearly is too late a call. Smaug has an astonishing finishing precentage in the attack but he can’t outscore the opponents alone.

Dale’s probem isn’t diminished by the fact that Gelion has been quite effective in the defence – at least compared to them. But Gelion hasn’t celebrated with goals in turn.

So maybe it will be Rohan to qualify in front of the two? Their defences do not look that solid even with the horses there, but then again statwise a lot of it is due to their terrible performance against Dol Guldur – and they wil not meet another team of that caliber in this group (Eithel Sirion excepted).

Group E

It is hard to say which of these teams would earn to go through. In most other groups both Misty Mountains and Rivendell would have their chances – and they do it even in this group. But the chances aren’t that great in the end.

We can see Utumno checking their game in the first two matches and then putting on a sordino – their draw with Thangorodrim raises eyebrows especially. And what MESPN said: it looks believable they were not willing to show all their tricks in a friendly match against their real enemies. So a clear qualifier.

It will be hard to bring down the team of Numenor. Yes there’s not the flair of last year with all the mighty forwards gone, the defence doesn’t seem to have the magic they had last year and Tar Atanamir’s saving percentage is almost 10 points lower it was last year etc. but they’ve been consistent and easy and the bad numbers are mainly due to their last game against the Barrow-Downs. Take that game out and you have a strong candidate for the quarterfinals.

Misty Mountains has taken 20 yellow cards in four matches which makes five cards per game on average. Thus far Tom, Bert, William and the Great Goblin have all picked up three cards each. If that is the way they play “friendly” games, how will they play when they fight for the win for real! Intimidating the adversary to force them to do mistakes is one thing, taking foolish cards and thus free-kicks, penalties or a disadvantage in numbers is another thing. It seems they haven’t quite got that.

Elrond has been thus far the best goalie in the friendlies (after Hama of Wold who we don’t count). The problem for rivendell though is that their adversaries have been more or less easier teams and their attack has been quite pathetic. Even if Numenor has played a bit under the expectations, they still outscore Rivendell easily.

Group F

On the first glance it looks pretty simple with this group: Thangorodrim and Valimar will qualify and Lorien and Bywater will fall behind. And even if we might end up with that prediction we’d warn peole not to take that for granted.

Now Valimar has been annoyingly effective winning all their matches with one goal – like they were polite enough not to win the games with a larger margin. But actually, Utumno being left aside, they have not faced any really strong ME opponents. The AKM has always been against the West meddling with the affairs of the ME and so the readers might interpret our sentiments in accordance to that.

Thangorodrim has been steadfast and effective. It’s very hard to see them not qualifying from this group. With Durin’s Bane, Scatha and Ancalagon in the lead it’s hard to see how the opponents could deal with them. Now the draw with Utumno was a questionmark and felt like a premeditated deal but who knows? Anyway if there should be one team we’d predict to go forwards for a bet it would be Thangorodrim: Carcaroth is still a quality keeper and they have a deadly efficient attack.

So the challengers then. As MESPN says, Bywater has been able to outshoot their opponents – except Vinyamar. The hobbits are agile and the two wizards surely create a threat to anyone opposing them. But so far it just doesn’t seem to work. Despite their nice words both Gandalf and Saruman seem like unconnected spots of talent surrounded by hobbits dashing here and there with no clear view of the bigger picture. Shadofax can hold the defences with the Nazgul just as long but Cotton at the goal is no strength for the team – to be polite with it.

Lorien then? Galadriel is as good as anyone thought she would be and thus scoring against them will be hard – but not that hard. Tirion broke their defences once and for all and there is no reason to believe any other team of that quality would not be able to do the same. We don’t want to take sides in the issue of the balance of gender but Celeborn really should have a word with Galadriel. This way they will end up in the group phase.

Group G

If Gondolin is not going to qualify and Doriath is, the head-editor of the AKM will eat his hat. So the name of the game is, which of the two: Gondor or Wold will join Gondolin in the next stage.

Hama has kept the Wold goal unviolated for four matches and that should count for something. Finrod Felagund has tried him, Azog and Gwaihir have tried him, Faramir has tried him, Tuor and Penlod have tried him… to no effect. No one has been able to put the ball behind Hama thus far. So is he the best goalie so far? Well, he will face Fingolfin, Aredhel and Maeglin. Does anyone think he has a chance there? No offence to Finrod (whom the AKM still regards as one of the greatest) but Hama has not been tested yet. He will also face Quickbeam, Treebeard and Grima, he will face Haleth, Haldir and Thingol, and Hyermendacil Eldacar and Mardil, and that’s at least as dangerous as those he has met already. So no chances for Wold to win the group and even their second place is challenged indeed.

The first challenge to Wold comes from Gondor. They are not a team filled with household celebrities as goes to the starting line-up but they have played confidently and every connoisseur knows their merits. Romendacil at the goal could be their Achilles’ heel but then again Wold isn’t the scoring team.

That would give a chance to Doriath, if they had their attack in form – which they haven’t. They have faced good teams to be sure but getting only nine shots on goal in four games is just unforgivable.

Gondolin made two sovereign appearances and then clearly let themselves to take it easier. Now the question is, whether that kind of intentional lowering down the game before the real thing can be harmful or not. That’s a question the sports-psychologists argue over and over. But it’s hard to see Gondolin not qualifying from this group anyway. What comes after that is another issue.

Group H

Once again a group that has a clear favourite and leaves two teams to fight for the second place. It would be a miracle if Tirion would not qualify and there are only those betting against all odds who see Minas Anor to qualify with a glorious sum of money in their greedy but bad-sighted eyes. But the game between Havens and Dol Guldur is wide open for anyone to bet.

Dol Guldur sure has one of the worst defences of the whole tournament: all their defenders ended up with minus phantasy points after the friendlies and Oropher’s saving percentage was the worst of all (53,6%). But one should never underestimate the Witch King or Khamûl. And they have some mighty aids with Radagast, Bolg, Beorn and Grimbeorn. So even if their defences leak big time they are able to score back.

Havens hasn’t been exactly the best defencive team either even if their record is a bit better – but then again their opponents during the friendlies were not that challenging if one compares them to the teams Dol Guldur had to play against. But Haves has a quality forward-team as well. Tar Minastir, Eärendil and Cirdan should be taken seriously by any team opposing them.

As said earlier, Minas Anor has been just invisible. There’s little talent, there’s little flair, there’s little of anything. To their excuse one could say they have faced mighty opposition thus far, but it won’t get any easier with the teams in their group.

Tirion then will march to the next round with relative ease. If what Fëanor said in the MESPN interview is correct, one should bet even more heavily on them. If they really played concentrating on the defence (and one can see that from the shots on target against them) their fans should not be worried. With Miriel, Nerdanel, Finwë and Fëanor himself leading the offence they really should perform some quality scoring – well not just some, a lot of it – when they are unleashed to really attack.

[Boromir88]

GROUP G- Gondolin is a shoe in for first, I can't see any one in this group beating them. If Doriath's odds are 1,000,000/1 go for it, if not, don't bet money on them to advance. Leaving 2nd to be battled between Gondor and Wold.

Doriath- I can't imagine them being as bad as they were in the friendlies, because they did hit rock bottom. They were out-shot by 22, and 2/3rds of Doriath's were off-target. I refuse to believe they will be that bad in tourney. Having said that, they're still not going to be good enough to advance. I don't think they'll leave empty handed though, it's not out of the question they win a draw against Gondor or Wold. I think skill-wise the Elves will be able to keep it pretty even against the mortals, and conglomeration of Orcs and trees. Plus you have to wonder if the Wold has enough ability to score on Melian. So, I predict a better performance for Doriath (seriously, just showing up on the pitch should do it) but still not good enough.

Gondolin- The only team that could be a bit of trouble is Gondor. Gondor has shown they can play even against the more-talented teams, but none of these teams can match Gondolin's skill. That is, as long as Gondolin decides now is the occassion to start playing and not slack off as they did in the last 2 friendlies. Over-confidence after seeing who their competition is in this group could be their stumbling block. The games are played for a reason, Gondolin found that out last year as heavy favourites only to miss the playoffs.

Gondor- I can't put my boys above Wold, simply because there is nothing about this team that makes them dominating. They play competive, that's all. The only team they'll out shoot is Wold, but will they turn that into multiple goals against Hama? They play respectable, they're not going to get run over by anyone, but they're also not going to run over anyone. And when someone says "You played respectable" that really means "You played better than what I thought, but you still lost." That's what you see from Gondor. They don't dominate, and you have to, to win.

Wold- Offense is going to be a big concern. Eomund did nothing in the friendlies, and way too much of their offense were produced by the defenders! Quickbeam showed some ability, he'll have to do more with Eomund though, because you can't rely on your defenders to do the scoring for you game-in and game-out. And their defense will be tested by quality FWs (even against Doriath - I am baffled by what Thingol's problem has been) for the first time. I like them for 2nd because Treebeard's brought the Mirkwood spirit with him. They won't make it as far as Mirkwood, but if you want to know how you resolve conflicts between several vastly different peoples, hire Treebeard.

Predicted Group Standings
1. Gondolin
2. Wold
3. Gondor
4. Doriath

GROUP H- In an ironic way, as offensively-geared this group is, it will come down to what defense is the least in-effective. The teams here can score on even the best defense, I wonder what they'll be capable of against eachother? For those of you who like smart 1-0 games, watch Group A. For me, I'll be watching this group with great interest.

Dol Guldur- For Mirkwood Oropher was not that bad of a goalie. It was their offense which provided the main spark getting to the semis, but Oropher made several spectacular saves which allowed them to upset Tuna and Valimar. I wonder what changed in a year? Part of the problem could be the newly added spiders on defense. Oropher had a mighty Ent and Radagast, the master of hues, on defense. (Aside: Radagast moved to FW because the Arda Cup committee said he would no longer be able to change colors, or distract players with butterflies as a defender. Since they specificed defender, he thinks he will still be able to at a different position). Where was I? Oh right, Oropher was behind a better defense last year, which in turn made him an adequate GK, now...not so much. They'll clearly score, but so can Tirion, Havens, and don't be shocked in the mighty Boromir I seeks revenge against the King who killed him.

Havens- I think Olwe finally has the right players, formation, and strategy to get his team over the hump, into the playoffs. I think they are also legitimate challengers ot the clear favorites, Tirion. Both drew with Vinyamar, so these nimble Elves while getting slaughtered for fighting the mightily-clad Noldor with sticks and cloth, have shown it won't be the same this year in football. With that said, I still expect another kin-slaying as Tirion runs through this group fairly easy. You got to love a team who can build a comfortable 2-goal lead. Sure Tirion can get a goal whenever they need one, but so can these guys.

Minas Anor- Rough draw for them, but I don't know if I'd like their chances even if they were in another group. The stewards historically provide strong competition and prove tough to break, but I think this team lost too much with the departure of Aragorn. They lost a bonified leader, and you just can't replace him with anyone. I see them easily losing all 3 matches, but I do think will give Dol Guldur their toughest game. Possibly, even manage a draw. Nothing brings out the best play in teams like a good and bloody heated rivalry.

Tirion- Will more than likely sweep, because not only are they the best offensive team, but in this group, they probably have the best defense. We'll definitely see opponents' shots increase, simply because of the caliber of the offenses they'll be playing. However, expect a big spike in their own shots as well. Feanor's remarks to MESPN are interesting, and if I may add, very wise. He made a rather ingenious decision to shore up the defense and prepare them for what they will be up against in this group. I think that will have a huge payoff, as Tirion looks to the championship.

Predicted Group Standings
1. Tirion
2. Havens
3. Dol Guldur
4. Minas Anor

[Nogrod]

The AKM comes forwards with the team qualifying bettings from the official MESPN Online Betting Industry Inc..

So how has the ME football community bet on the games thus far? Find it out from here and check your bets against the others!

First the group phase: so who is qualifying, who’s first, who’s second?

The percentages are: coming first – coming second – not qualifying

A
Aman 50% - 10% - 40%
Vinyamar 40% - 60% - 0%
Ithilien 10% - 30% - 60%
Beleriand 0% - 0% - 100%

B
Barad-Dûr 60% - 20% - 20%
‘Downs 40% - 40% - 20%
Gorgoroth 30% - 0% - 70%
Breeland 0% - 10% - 90%

C
Mithrim 60% - 30% - 10%
Pelennor 20% - 20% - 60%
Norbury 10% - 30% - 60%
Nargothrond 10% - 20% - 70%

D
Eithel Sirion 90% - 10% - 0%
Rohan 0% - 60% - 40%
Gelion 10% - 20% - 70%
Dale 0% - 10% - 90%

E
Utumno 60% - 30% - 10%
Numenor 30% - 50% - 20%
Rivendell 0% - 20% - 80%
Misty Mts. 10% - 0% - 90%

F
Thangorodr. 60% - 30% -10%
Valimar 30% - 40% - 30%
Bywater 10% - 20% - 70%
Lorien 0% - 10% - 90%

G
Gondolin 90% - 0% - 0%
Wold 0% - 60% - 40%
Gondor 10% - 20% - 70%
Doriath 0% - 20% - 80%

H
Tirion 80% - 0% - 0%
Havens 10% - 40% - 50%
Dol Guldur 10% - 30% - 60%
Minas Anor 0% - 20% - 80%



Results on other betting…


Most goals

30% of the betting goes for Fëanor making the most goals. Sauron and Túrin get 20% and Maedhros, Scatha and Tar Minastir have a 10% following each. There sure are a lot of plausible candidates left, not to talk of possible wild cards.

Most assists

This a lot more contested category. Only Nerdanel manages to pick 20% of the betting. Other candidates that have been bet on are: Beorn, Eowyn, Eöl, Ingwë, Melkor, Nienna, Sauron and the phantom.

To win

For the overal win of the tournament there is an interesting tie between four teams: Barrow-Downs, Mithrim, Tirion and Utumno have all gotten 20% of the betting thus far. Gondolin and Thangorodrim have received 10%. With six teams being bet on winning one might think the winner is already there, but watch it…


Betting on the most total phantasy points scored:

Keepers

With the keepers the betting has been overwhelming for Huan. He has gotten 50% of the bets. With a 10% share there are Elrond, Maglor, Melian, Nienna and Shelob. Huan is a quality keeper but clearly overrated. Any risk-taker could now capitalize with picking an unbet goalie.

Defenders

With defenders it’s basically the mirror-image of the goalie-betting. Only Curufin has managed to gather 20% of the bets as yet. All the other players bet have only 10% behind them, namely: Asfaloth, Balrog #4, Glaurung, Nessa, Shadowfax, skip spence, Tar Telperion and Treebeard.

Midfielders

With midfielders one gets an interesting picture. Melkor rules with 40% of the beting but Durin’s Bane challenges him with 30%. That is a tough race. But there are others to be sure. Those bet on already are Elros, Hador and Sally. Pretty good picks everyone of them. And there are a host of competitive challengers out and about.

Forwards

Not perhaps unexpectedly Fëanor leads the betting with 40% of betters relying on him. Túrin is a good second with 20% of the betting behind him. Other players to have been bet on are Maedhros, Miriel, Nerdanel and Wilwa.

[the phantom]

GROUP A
Beleriand vs Ithilien
Aman vs Vinyamar

GROUP B
Barad-Dur vs Barrow-Downs
Breeland vs Gorgoroth

GROUP C
Mithrim vs Pelennor
Nargothrond vs Norbury

GROUP D
Dale vs Rohan
Eithel Sirion vs Gelion

GROUP E
Numenor vs Rivendell
Misty Mts vs Utumno

GROUP F
Bywater vs Thangorodrim
Lorien vs Valimar

GROUP G
Gondolin vs Wold
Doriath vs Gondor

GROUP H
Dol Guldur vs Tirion
Havens vs Minas Anor

[Boromir88]

Group B at Gorgoroth

The host for Group B was a heated and close race. The finalists were The Barrow-Downs and Gorgoroth, both making huge bids to be chosen as a host. The 'Downs had support from Butterbur, who offered the Prancing Pony up, to house all the teams'. "I've enjoyed the company of these blokes [The Downers]" praised Butterbur "They're not trouble-makers, 'cept for that warg don't care for him much, and I like that about 'em. They're going to be good fun to play."

The Barrow-Downs had hosted a playoff game for the TIG team a few years back, and once Bombadil sang the fog away, it proved to be a nice venue. So, with Butterbur's praise, and the overall support from Bree the Barrow-Downs were sure their site would be chosen to host. That would not be the case. And it angered many of the BD players: "I can't believe the officials will go with Gorgoroth." said an annoyed Skip "We already have a stadium here, we've got plenty of room, thanks to Butterbur, to accomodate all the teams and security would be cheap since there aren't too many problems in these parts until the night. It was a bad choice."

The committee decided Gorgoroth had offered a stronger bid. It was actually quite a late push, as Sauron believed one of his sites in Mordor would have easily been chosen. Bree was immediately out of the running, since they were group hosts last year, leaving a 67% chance for one of the Mordor teams. However, it seemed like the Barrow-Downs was getting an upper-hand and Sauron had to step up his efforts to bring the games to Mordor.

There were obvious questions about security, but Sauron cunningly answered those concerns by pointing out he was in complete control over all of his servants in Mordor, where there were many unchecked dark, sketchy figures that haunt the Barrow-Downs and cause several security issues. I think the selling point came from Sauron's threat to erupt Mount Doom who maintained he was taken out of context and made no such threat. "When I said the Hellmouth would be unleashed, I was speaking metaphorically, of the reaction all across Mordor, should it not host. What can I say? I'm a huge fan of Buffy."

Whatever the cause, Gorgoroth was chosen to host the Group B games. There were still other questions besides security, especially about constructing a quality stadium in the middle of a flat dessert plain. However, Gorgoroth seemed to rise to the challenge, by diverting waters from Nurnen to plenish the field. It truly looks like an oasis in the dessert. The stadium itself, is not very large, only seating 42,000. The stands are constructed from the same black stones that were used to build Barad Dur, but Gorgoroth had a problem trying to build the stands very high, fearing the foundation would collapse. The open plains (and fence that was constructed around the entire field) however have added a couple thousand standing room tickets which can be purchased for a cheap price.

The biggest question I have is, what if neither of the Mordor teams advance beyond group play? That is surely a good possibility. Will Breeland and the Barrow-Downs be able to leave Mordor all in one piece!?

Group G at Doriath

Group G was also a difficult host for the committee to choose. Would it be the new Wold team, who proposed to build a stadium next to the ancient Fangorn forest? Gondolin? They have a spectacular venue and always are great hosts. Perhaps Doriath, who offered a larger stadium as well as the best security? Gondor had a whole range of of fantastic locations, in it's realm to chose from. There were early rumors that the beautiful Swan-City of Dol Amroth would be building a stadium, but neither Amroth nor Imrahil (who played for different teams) would authorize it. So, Gondor fell out of contention as it could not settle on a precise location.

It quickly became a 2-team race, between Doriath and Wold, as Gondolin conceeded and will likely offer their stadium for later play-off rounds, as usual for them. Treebeard didn't like the idea of using wood from Fangorn to build the grand stands, so it looked like it would be Doriath. Doriath hosted in 2008, and already had a large venue (85,000+) that was built by Dwarven craftsman from Nogrod. All they needed was a few tune-ups and repairs. Also, Melian has a girdle around the entire stadium which will prevent anyone of evil-heart from entering the stadium. Though there isn't much concern for issues arising between the teams in this group. However, we do wonder how the Uruks from the Wold will be able to enter the pitch if anyone of evil-heart will not be allowed in. Treebeard has said though, his team proves Orcs can truly be redeemed if out of the influence of a heinous dark-lord for a while.

Expect large crowds for Doriath and Gondolin, but also substantial numbers for Gondor and Wold, because their fans travel well. Doriath's GK Melian, said spectators will be treated to a lot of exciting, respectful football from all the teams. She also, believes behind a strong home crowd her team's performance will be much improved in the tournament.

[the phantom]

There is nothing the Noldor love more than a project, and so when the Arda Cup Committee announced that long-abandoned Vinyamar would be a group host, there was much rejoicing among the craftsmen of the Noldor.

Crews upon crews of stone-workers, smiths, and building-planners poured in, and due to time constraints a couple hundred dwarfs were brought in to assist. Half of them set to work repairing streets and lodgings, while the rest tackled the stadium.

There was already an arena built into the slopes of Mount Taras, but it was not large enough to handle an event of this magnitude. Through some creative engineering, such as building up onto the roofs of some of the neighboring buildings, they managed to expand capacity up to a respectable number. It couldn't hold the numbers of the larger Middle-Earth stadiums (Minas Tirith, Misty Mts, etc), but it was marvelously constructed, and boasted beautiful views of the meeting between Mount Taras and the sea.

Due to the fact that Vinyamar is no longer inhabited, the crowds that have arrived to watch the games are less lopsided for the host than in other venues. Vinyamar likely has the edge, but Beleriand has a large contingent as well, and a good number sailed in from Aman in recent days. The smallest representation is from Ithilien- about five thousand or so.

There is very little in the way of security concerns, as none of the four squads contain players with bad blood existing between them and others. To this point the fans have gotten on together as well as could be hoped for, and all are looking forward to the start of the matches, which most think will be defensive gems, given the makeup of this group.

[the phantom]

No city can compare to the glory and splendor of Valimar, and many say the same about their grand stadium. The masonry, jewels, and lights are spectacular, and adding to the flavor are the trees and flowers incorporated in the design, as well as the many massive beautiful bells which are used to celebrate goals scored by the home side.

Quite a few merry hobbits made the trip to the havens and then on across the sea in support of their team, while a smaller group from Lorien made the journey as well. Those expecting a decent turnout from Thangorodrim were quite mistaken, as less than the expected number of men, orcs, or other creatures affiliated with the stronghold of evil were willing to make the trip. According to most, fear of the sea voyage as well as fear of imprisonment for their evil ways in Valinor were huge discouraging factors, despite the Valar promising safety and freedom to all guests.

Though perhaps these promises are indeed suspect, as there have been reports of several boats of Thangorodrim fans (particularly orcs) being turned away by harbor officials. In their defense, the coastal security agents insist that the only individuals turned away were "quite obviously not there for football, but to steal, riot, and perhaps worse".

But the fact remains that not a single orc in support of Thangorodrim has entered into the city at the present. A band of orcs from Minas Morgul who showed up to support the Nazgul playing for Bywater were let in without incident however, despite the folks at customs being forced to remove a couple tons of weaponry the orcs were trying to conceal and smuggle in with them.

Thangorodrim defender Glaurung believes this is evidence of clear favoritism from the hosts. "But no matter- we'll take care of business on the field, and no amount of fan support can deter us."

[Boromir88]

The matches at Gorgoroth Stadium were completely sold out within an hour. The Mordor teams were playing the outlanders and depending upon certain circumstances 1st place was still anyone's for the taking. Although coming into the day the overall belief was Barad Dur and Barrow-Downs would advance to the playoffs since they would have to have meltdowns against their opponents to not qualify.

Match 5: Barad Dur vs. Breeland
In the afternoon match, the Orcs and sinister creatures, who packed the stadium and easily outnumbered the Bree supporters. The orcs were rowdy, loud, and extremely arrogant since Barad Dur had tied Barrow-Downs, and Barrow Downs took care of Bree 3-1. In fact, Breeland has looked lost, and out of place, on the pitch. "This is in the bag, as a win for the Great Eye" rumbled the crowd.

However, as it often is with Bree teams, once you overlook them and think the unathletic bums will be a cake walk they will give you a bunch of fits. It's frustratingly difficult to figure out Bree, because the team complains how they always rely too much on Bombadil. But when Bombadil does show up to play the rest of the team does nothing and expect Bombadil to win it all alone. It was much of the same story today.

In the first period the Bombadil and Barrow-wight duo dominated the playing field. In fact, as we were mere minutes from the half-time whistle the crowd was pleasantly surprised to see the score was tied 1-1. They couldn't remember Barad Dur ever gaining possession let alone scoring a goal, that is how dominating the B & B Bree Boys had been. The orcs actually became a bit hopeful, if Barad-Dur could withstand that onslaught and still leave the first period tied they could easily win with a well-played 2nd period.

However, with mere minutes remaining to break, Bree would grab the lead again, driving a dagger into the hopes of Barad Dur fans. Who other than Bombadil and the B-W striking again to put Bree up by 1-goal right as the half whistle blew. Now the mood in the stadium wasn't about surviving the 1st tied and winning it in the 2nd, but hoping for a draw or at least a 1-goal loss, since Bree would need to win by 2 goals to knock Barad Dur out.

When the teams were heading to the locker room, the reporters flocked to Bombadil as no one had seen him for weeks.
"Tell us how big that last goal was for your team Tom?"
"Hey ho. Merry Dol! Talk to el Capitan-o!"
"That was spectacular footwork. We have never seen anyone handle the ball with such skill and ease before. Will we see more of that in the 2nd?"
"Hey-do. Razzly-Dazzly Tom. Game over Bombadillo! Merry dol."
"Are you guaranteeing a Bree victory!?"
But Bombadil did not answer, he just walked away. The reporters tried to follow, but the Barrow-Wight who had been at Tom's side the entire time gave an icy-cold stare, and the flock of reporters dropped to the ground in terror. That did not prevent the Gorgoroth score-board operators from flashing on the board "Bombadil guarantees it's game over for Barad Dur!" The Barad Dur friendly crowd was worked into a frenzy because of that message, when in all likelyhood Tom just meant that the game was over for him!

It didn't matter to them what Bombadil actually meant by "Game Over," when Bree stepped onto the field at the start of the 2nd the stadium shook with anger. Bottles and scraps of meat were thrown at them. Jeers of "Arrogant pigs!" were shouted and "What is Bree but a place for the ignorant round men to lie in the mud with dogs!" Stadium crew were finding it very difficult to try and keep the field clear of trash and other objects. The situation was getting dangerous and the head ref was threatening to cancel the match which would disqualify Barad Dur. It wasn't necessary as when Sauron walked onto the pitch, the place fell silent.

He walked towards the side line and picked up a bottle which was still half-full of orc-draught. Sauron handed it to an orc in the front row saying: "What a waste of your $5 drink." The horde of Orcs burst out in wicked laughter and Sauron gave the officials enough time to clear off the field, so they could actually begin play. Instead of spending their energy hurting Barad Dur by rioting, they focused on helping their team in traditional orc fashion - mocking and taunting the opponent.

Captain Strider would try to make you believe that his team's performance wasn't effected by the constant taunting of the crowd, but it probably was. At least on offense they were unable to do anything. And it certainly effected the Barad Dur defenses who began playing inspired and fed off the crowd's energy. Roheryn kept Bree's defense together much better than their previous match, but in the end without Bree being able to muster quality attacks, their defense had no hope. They could not hold out indefinitely against a team which had several 2nd age heroes AND Sauron on offense.

When Sauron got the go-ahead goal in the 81st minute the crowd went berserk. They knew right then Barad Dur was going to win. And how fitting it was that Sauron would score the final goal for his team in group play. Barad Dur might have been fortunate to survive the B&B onslaught in the first, but they certainly deserved this win by how they came out and played in the 2nd. One Mordor team was in, now for the other.

Barad-Dur 3-2 Breeland
tot shots 16-15
on target 8-8
GOALS:
*17, 0-1 Bombadil (Barrow-Wight)
*36, 1-1 Gil-Galad (Naz #7)
*44, 1-2 Bombadil (Barrow-Wight)
*69, 2-2 Isildur (Sauron)
*81, 3-2 Sauron (Isildur)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Barad-Dur- Isildur, Elendil, Fellbeast
*Breeland- Lumpkin, Roheryn

Match 6: Barrow-Downs vs. Gorgoroth
Coming after Barad Dur's win, the Gorgoroth crowd was confident (and drunk). They would point out how they tied this team during the friendlies, and Castamir would continue to win as he did for Minas Morgul and Umbar in the previous tournaments. However, the thing about this other BD team, is it just seems like nothing gets under their skin. Even in a hostile land, and wondering where the hazy brown overcast suddenly came from, they were not dismayed. They could draw or afford to lose by 1-goal and still advance, but something tells me 2nd place wouldn't be good enough for the Barrow Downs. They wanted blood tonight.

It didn't take long for Barrow-Downs to jump out to a lead, but it did come from an unlikely player. Usually preferring to play balanced and not the hyper-aggressive style they did as wolves the defenders don't venture too far up field. However, BD had an early corner, and since they were playing for the win, wanted to take advantage. Phantom would take the corner, but he did not launch it into the box, instead he just passed it on to sally, who quickly sent it to Skip who was about 10 meters outside the penalty area. What were they doing? It looked like Skip was trying to find the tall form of Nogrod, but Gorgoroth's defense looked just as confused, as they packed the box. But Skip had a lane to shoot the ball through, and since no one came out to challenge, he had the time to get off a great shot, putting it just beyond the reach of Shelob. The giant spider may have reacted a bit slowly, not picking up the ball well, and not expecting the shot, but it was still a fine piece of striking, squeezing the ball through an open lane and into the back of the net.

The Gorgoroth crowd was stunned, they didn't seem to realize how or what just happened. All they knew is their team was already down 1-0 within the first 15 minutes. Even up 1-0 Barrow-Downs did not stop pressing the attack. They wanted 1st place, which meant they needed a 2-goal victory or they needed to score more goals. Besides their defense had been suffocating Gorgoroth's attack all day so far. Although, this rather new aggressive style from the Barrow-Downs cost them mere minutes before the break.

All day BD was trying to take advantage of Nogrod's height over the smaller orc defenders for Gorgoroth. However, this time Nazgul #1 anticipated the pass and quickly delivered the ball up-field to King Dead. Gorgoroth was on the counter, and it was finished by none other than Castamir, who had his 3rd goal in as many matches. Eomerwarg didn't have a chance, but BD's defense would not be dis-heartened.

They had only allowed Gorgoroth 2 shots on target in the 1st. Their defense was completely suffocating, but in the attempt to actually finish at the top of the group, they were out of formation and out-manned. Or to put it in yeomen terms for the readers who don't closely follow football, they got caught with their pants down. It wouldn't happen again.

In the 2nd Barrow-Downs began taking it to Gorgoroth, but also Skip kept his defense back to make sure Gorgoroth couldn't start another counter, which they were so proficient at creating. Also, the true ingenuinty of the 'Downers was clearly seen in the 2nd period. It was as if the entire 1st half was to make Nogrod a diversion. The orc-loaded defense of Gorgoroth, were primed to believe BD would continue trying to take advantage of Nogrod's height. So, they focused on stopping him, but completely forgot that wilwa was just as dangerous, because of her elegant and graceful footwork with the ball.

Before Gorgoroth could make the adjustment wilwa banged a shot off the post, and Nogrod was able to clean up the rebound putting Barrow-Downs back on top by a goal. Then in the 70th minute, she's involved again, only this time wilwa broke past 2 defenders. Phantom delivered a sharp pass, and it was perfectly placed for her. Wilwa didn't have to make any uncomfortable adjustment to try to get off an awkward shot, she just had to re-direct the ball's path, knocking it past Shelob. And again 5 minutes later, wilwa nearly got a 2nd goal, but Shelob made a good save and gobbled the shot up.

They were so prepared in the 2nd to stop Nogrod, before Gorgoroth knew it, wilwa beat them with a pass and a goal, and they the home crowd was now down 3-1, and could have easily been 4-1.

With the 2-goal lead, and with around 15 minutes of game left, the Barrow-Downs focused on protecting their lead, as it would mean they clinch 1st in Group B. Yet again another display of wise strategy, because as seen in the 1st, Gorgoroth's are experts at counter-attacks. However they couldn't just turn on the burners like Dol Guldur or Gondolin could. They needed to build pressure and tire out the opposing defense, before being able to take advantage. With how well-rested, and prepared BD's defense was from having an easy 2nd period (courtesy of wilwa and company), they easily rose to the challenge; getting a solid 3-1 victory as well as 1st place.

Fortunately one team from Mordor advanced, or I doubt even Sauron would have the control to calm the whole anger of Mordor, like he did in the afternoon match. The 'Downers were confident, because group winners hold big rewards. They could now return to Tyrn Gorthad Stadium and play in front of a friendly, passionate home crowd for their first playoff match. Also, this means they get the 2nd place finisher of Group G, which is yet to be determined, but most experts say it will be Gondor and not the feared juggernauts of Gondolin.

Barrow-Downs 3-1 Gorgoroth
tot shots 12-8
on target 6-4
GOALS:
*13, 1-0 Skip (Sally)
*42, 1-1 Castamir (Angamaite)
*55, 2-1 Nogrod (Wilwa)
*70, 3-1 Wilwa (Phantom)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Barrow-Downs- Nerwen, Sally
*Gorgoroth- Gollum, Gorbag, Earnur, Grishnakh

Group B Standings
Barrow-Downs 2-1-0, 7, (+4) Q
Barad Dur 2-1-0, 7, (+3) Q
Breeland 0-1-2, 1, (-3)
Gorgoroth 0-1-2, 1, (-4)

[the phantom]

Tensions between the Thangorodrim players and the players and fans of the other teams were high headed into the final pair of games. With none of their fans being allowed to attend, and alleged incidents of their fans actually being slain, Thangorodrim definitely had the “us against the world” attitude going, and the paranoia to go along with it.

“It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Lorien threw their match against Bywater, losing purposefully by as large a margin as possible so as to force us out,” said Durin’s Bane before Thangorodrim’s final practice before the big match against the host, Valimar. His teammates agreed wholeheartedly, and expressed their belief that the only way into the playoffs was to defeat Valimar and take the top spot, or at the worst tie Valimar.

“We have to take this into our own hands!” roared Ancalagon. “If our fate is left to others, we will surely be cheated! With Lorien already eliminated, surely they will conspire against us and roll over for Bywater.”

As the opening game kicked off, the Thangorodrim players watched as they were seemingly proved right. In only the 11th minute Galadriel let one past and it was 1-0 Bywater. To be fair it was a tough shot from an extremely close position, so if anyone from the Lorien side was to blame, it would be the defenders for being disorganized and not accounting properly for Bandobras.

For a time Lorien showed some life on offense and made a go of attacking, but Bywater disrupted time and time again and soon had it down on the other end. At minute 28 Lorien tried to get a quick counter going, but Fatty got a foot on the outlet pass, sending it over to Maggot, who immediately sent a ball high at the far corner over a napping Galadriel who had not recovered in time from the possession change, and it was 2-0.

The hobbits and Nazgul-supporting orcs in the crowd began singing. This was the start they were looking for! If Bywater could just keep it up, surely they would advance, as Thangorodrim would find it tough to defeat the mighty home team! But Bywater did not keep it up, as for the rest of the half they looked rather spent and pulled back and defended, conserving energy for the second half push.

And the push came indeed. The opening 20 minutes of the second half was frantic, as Bywater gave it their all to push the goal margin, but Lorien betrayed no sign of giving up and pushed back wave after wave of attackers. Finally the Bywater attack started losing steam and the game moved to the midfield, and eventually to Bywater’s half. Lorien saw their best chances yet in the final 15, but Cotton turned them away and the match ended at 2-0. A couple of the Thangorodrim players interviewed before leaving to prepare for their match thought that perhaps they had misjudged the depths of the conspiracy, but the dragons remained adamant. “That was a nice little charade we just witnessed,” commented Scatha. “They played just enough to avoid looking suspicious. But no matter- we’re about to take care of business.”

Bywater 2-0 Lorien
tot shots 10-7
on target 5-3
GOALS:
*11, 1-0 Bandobras (Maggot)
*28, 2-0 Maggot (Fatty)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Bywater- Saruman, Ferny
*Lorien- Celeborn, Rumil, Orophin

The final match between Thangorodrim and Valimar was one of the most highly anticipated group play matches in recent history. It was receiving quite a lot of discussion even around other hosting sites. Heroes versus villains, beauty versus horror, defense and execution versus attack and fury!

There was no question that Thangorodrim would be bringing their top game, as they were tied in points with Bywater and their playoff berth was not secured. But everyone wondered how Valimar would play. They were already guaranteed to advance, so would they truly go all out at this stage? Why not hold energy and strategy back for the playoffs?

On the other hand, perhaps they wished to stick it to their old foes and eliminate Thangorodrim? And maybe it was worth the extra effort to secure the top seed and thus avoid going on the road to play an extremely impressive Mithrim squad? But gaining the top spot would also put them on the same half of the bracket as Utumno, Gondolin, and Tirion. Was that a factor? Soon enough though, all the questions were answered.

When they made their entrance, Thangorodrim was met with booing the likes of which had never been heard before in the blessed realm. It actually seemed to cause an earthquake. Even the dragons looked somewhat intimidated, as they skipped their usual taunting of the crowd, perhaps fearing that the 100,000 plus spectators would rush them, and even dragons can’t overcome numbers like that, particularly with such a great number of Ainu included in the crowd.

But the booing disappeared instantly when Manwe marched out at the head of his team. The crowd screamed and rang their handheld bells in union with the giant stadium bells as the home team encouraged the clamor with great vigor. Eonwe pumped his fists, Tulkas leaped up and down, Alatar and Pallando removed their jerseys and waved them, and Arien climbed the goalposts and burst into glorious flames! Even Manwe and Varda motioned to the crowd to increase the volume! This was not the typical Vala-led team of years past.

The game kicked off and it was clear that the energy and enthusiasm from Valimar had not been a mere show. They took it to Thangorodrim with speed and energy that stunned the evil men and monsters, and before ten minutes was up Valimar scored on a ringing header by Arien off of a Varda corner. But rather than frighten them, the early deficit seemed to wake Thangorodrim up, perhaps reminding them of the odds stacked against them and arousing their wrath.

The baddies stormed back with all their might and it was the host’s turn to be put on the heels. Valimar had certainly not seen anything like this attack before. Manwe and the defenders battled desperately, and Namo twice made spectacular saves when the defense failed, but Thangorodrim was not to be denied forever. At minute 20 the two dragons up front created a lot of contact and put several defenders on the ground and managed a free shot at the goal which there was no hope of saving. Scatha lifted up his head and sent a plume of flame into the air to celebrate his score, while the spectators booed more loudly than ever, thinking that at least one of the dragons should have been carded.

But Thangorodrim, perhaps realizing they had pushed their luck with the violent play, settled down into a more cunning game, and for the rest of the half they had the mastery, playing intelligently on defense and executing on offense, culminating in a strike by the other dragon forward, Ancalagon, off of a nice assist by Durin’s Bane. Thangorodrim made their way to halftime with their heads high while Valimar looked a bit shocked and tired. The crowd was completely out of it.

When the teams trotted out for the second half, Thangorodrim looked the same, but Valimar now looked grim and determined. Word was that Gandalf and Saruman from the Bywater team (who had tied Thangorodrim in the opening round) had been in the locker room and had spoken passionately, encouraging Valimar to not only win for themselves, but win for Bywater so that they could get into the playoffs.

Whatever the truth of it was, Valimar looked to be a different team from the very start. There was no panic in their steps, nor did they try to force the action. They now kicked with purpose and confidence, and Thangorodrim was unable to counter this new level of execution and concentration. Only 8 minutes into the new half the herald Eonwe announced Valimar’s return with the equalizer off a nice feed from Arien, and the crowd was back in it.

Again and again Thangorodrim tried to mount a charge, but now Valimar was meeting them head on and attacking in turn, and the baddies reverted to their earlier more violent methods. In minute 62 the decision was proved to be bad indeed as Ulwarth was caught tossing in punches to the back while bodying up on defense against Tulkas. He and nearby Durin’s Bane complained loudly that Tulkas had been throwing elbows back at Ulwarth and that he was only retaliating, but this had not been seen by the ref.

The crowd sang and rang their bells, seeing this send-off as a possible death-blow to Thangorodrim. Unlike the last time they had been presented with a challenge, Thangorodrim did not rise to the challenge, but rather looked panicky. Valimar built up the attack against them little by little. Tulkas and Eonwe were looking quite mighty, and Varda was completely in control of things and looking sharp, but the best in this match was Arien, who seemed out to prove that she was the true flame on this field, not the Balrog nor the dragons. And in minute 74 Arien was proved the best as she let loose a booming kick that actually caught fire and burned a hole right through the net!

Carcharoth howled his protest to the refs, saying that he couldn’t attempt to save it due to the fire, and that such things were clearly outlawed, but the refs took one look at Arien (she was perched on the posts yet again, shining brightly and sending spouts of flame into the sky) and didn’t dare rule against her revealed in all her fearful splendour.

Livid about the ruling, Glaurung made it his job to shut Arien down at that point, but when he got over and tried to defend she charged straight into his tail and went flipping into the air as if she’d been launched by a trebuchet. The refs immediately showed Glaurung a red card, and the bells of Valimar rang more loudly than ever, and the crowds broke out in singing. Scatha nearly got sent off too as he heatedly took issue with Arien’s trickery. But it was pointless to protest. With the whole stadium and the refs on the side of Valimar, plus missing Glaurung and Ulwarth- the match was over.

To the delight of the fans Valimar was not content to hold their one goal lead, but continued attacking, and in minute 84 Arien got on the scoring sheet yet again as she sent a perfect ball to Tulkas who beat the undermanned defense for a 4-2 lead. Amid the roar that arose from the stadium in that moment, the hollering of the hobbit section could be picked out, as Bywater now had a better goal differential than Thangorodrim to clinch the second playoff spot! Thangorodrim tried to reclaim the lost goal in the final seconds, but Valimar was far too solid and the game ended at 4-2 in favor of the hosts. Thangorodrim was eliminated!

Thangorodrim 2-4 Valimar
tot shots 14-15
on target 7-8
GOALS:
*7, 0-1 Arien (Varda)
*20, 1-1 Scatha (Ancalagon)
*39, 2-1 Ancalagon (Durin’s Bane)
*53, 2-2 Eonwe (Arien)
*74, 2-3 Arien (Eonwe)
*84, 2-4 Tulkas (Arien)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Thangorodrim- Scatha, Ulwarth, Gorlim, Ulfang
*Valimar- Pallando, Tulkas, Yavanna, Vana
RED CARDS:
*Thangorodrim- Ulwarth (62, second yellow) Glaurung (78, straight red)

GROUP F FINAL STANDINGS
Valimar (9 pts, +5, 7-2)
Bywater (4 pts, +1, 4-3)
Thangorodrim (4 pts, +0, 7-7)
Lorien (0 pts, -6, 1-7)

[skip spence]

While the other group H match between Dol Guldur and the Havens was highly anticipated, the encounter between goal-hungry Tirion out of Aman and Minas Anor attracted less hype. After all, Tirion was already qualified for the second round, and Minas Anor had been eliminated. Many people, orcs, spiders and elves showed up nonetheless, and they were treated to a fine game of football.

Minas Anor was made up of proud Men who’d fight until the bitter to contain their illustrious opponents, but still it was plain to see that they lacked the motivation required to give Tirion a real challenge. The Aman side’s quick passing, flawless technique and flowing movement made the Gondorians chase shadows for the most part of the first half and the two goals Tirion did score was less than what the team deserved.

In the second half the Elves relaxed and became rather nonchalant, which could have cost them dearly against a better team. Minas Anor did pull one goal back as Feanor messed up an extravagant but completely needless spinning move just outside his own penalty area and gave Boromir a gift, but the Fiery one responded with a goal of his own later on, a nice solo effort which surely will feature in the Palantiri highlights of the Arda Cup. Tirion had made it into the second round with ease.

Minas Anor 1-3 Tirion
tot shots 8-17
on target 4-8
GOALS:
*5, 0-1 Finwe (Feanor)
*24, 0-2 Nerdanel (Miriel)
*51, 1-2 Boromir I (Naz #4)
*72, 1-3 Feanor (Nerdanel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Minas Anor- Siriondil, Dervorin
*Tirion- Amrod, Amras

After the host team’s dramatic comeback win in the previous round the scene was set for a showdown against their age-old rivals from the Western Havens. Football fever had a firm grip on every resident of the Mirkwood stronghold, from the deepest dungeon under the hill to the loftiest tower overlooking the wide lands of Middle Earth. As kick-off approached, all and sundry showed up to support their team, sundry referring to the ticket-less spiders who had climbed the façade of the stadium and hung down from a piece of sting and to the countless vampire-bats fluttering high above this field of dreams. Each of them was donning the home team’s black and green colours and making a noise that made and earthquake seem timid.

Into this melting pot came the Havens but they looked undeterred and confident, joking and goofing around as if it were a training session. The Dol Guldur players, led by the imposing Witch-King, did not laugh. They knew that they could not afford to fall behind again and were determined not to let that happen this time around.

Yet so it did. Early on and completely out of the blue Havens took the lead, when the Numenorian seafarer Tar-Minastir struck a volley from way out that Oropher in the Dol Guldur goal could only watch as it looped over him and dipped under the crossbar.

Not much later it got even worse for the home team. Cirdan made space for himself on the left, tunneled each one of Attercop’s eight legs and whipped a cross into the box where Eärendil met the ball with an audacious flying header. Oropher did not even move as the ball whistled past him and into the top corner. The whole stadium fell silent, apart from the spirited but respectfully demure clapping of a small section of travelling Havens fan out of Lindon.

“Not again…” was written across the face of all the home supporters. Their beloved team had come back from the dead in the second round. But surely lightning cannot strike twice?

At this point some of the Dol Guldur players started to hang their heads low, but as soon as the Witch-King spotted weakness he gave the player in question an icy stare that came with a promise of something much worse after the game. Thus, Dol Guldur soldiered on, scrapping for every ball and finally getting the crowd behind them again.

However, goals weren’t forthcoming. All the attacking, apart from the occasional counter-attack, was now done by Dol Guldur. But the Havens was a weathered side of professionals who wasn’t going to make it easy for the Mirkwooders, and each time Dol Guldur came forward they were thwarted. As three quarters of the game had passed the crowd had all but resigned.

But just like in the previous game Dol Guldur were given a life-line when all seemed lost. Khamul advanced with the ball and the Havens defenders backed off, rather giving the Nazgul a chance to shoot from distance than passing the ball to a fellow. And what a mistake that was! Khamul drilled a rocket past Olwe from well over 35 yards out that got the crowd right back on its feet.

Once again the atmosphere was feverish as the home team now pushed furiously for more goals. And unbelievably an leveller came only a few minutes later, scored from close range by the Witch-King, who had lost his marker Eriol completely.

Dol Guldur had come back once against the odds once again, but a draw would not be enough for them to advance, and Havens knew this also. Now all ten outfielders was in the lap of Oropher, and the seafarers took every chance to waste Dol Guldur’s precious time.

Unfortunately for the Havens Eriol seemed to be suffering from the black breath at this point and could no longer follow the Witch-King as closely as he had done earlier on. And for this failure his team payed the ultimate price. An Attercop cross towards the far post was met unopposed by the chief Nazgul and he headed the ball across goal where Grimbeorn nodded home to complete another unbelievable comeback from Dol Guldur.

The Havens was shell-chocked as the Dol Guldur players celebrated the goal with the ecstatic fans. The stadium was a boiling sea of black and green, and wood-elves, Orcs and Spiders embraced each other as if they were long lost friends.

Now it was suddenly Havens who had to come forward and although they found it hard to change their game-plan at this point Cirdan got a glorious opportunity to put rain on the parade as he was allowed a free header deep into injury time. The crowd gasped for breath as the ball hit the crossbar and bounced down just outside the goal line. That was to be Havens last chance. The referee blew the full time whistle and Dol Guldur was through to the second round.

As the supporters filed out of the stadium they were in dreamland but neutrals agreed that each one of them looked at least five years older from the pain he or she had suffered before finally being delivered. Some of them actually left the stadium with a new hair colour: grey.

Dol Guldur 3-2 Havens
tot shots 12-9
on target 8-5
GOALS:
*7, 0-1 Tar Minastir (Earendil)
*20, 0-2 Earendil (Cirdan)
*70, 1-2 Khamul (Witch King)
*75, 2-2 Witch King (Bolg)
*86, 3-2 Grimbeorn (Witch King)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Dol Guldur- Galion, Beorn, Bolg
*Havens- Uinen, Eriol


Final Standings GROUP H:
Tirion 3-0-0 11-5 9pts Q
Dol Guldur 2-0-1 8-8 6pts Q
Havens 1-0-2 7-8 3 pts
Minas Anor 0-0-3 4-9 0pts