WW LXXIII: Arkham Asylum: Holding Cells(Game Thread)

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Haha.
The Cobbler as the First Night kill choice.
I am not sure you can get better, save for a wolf killing themselves I suppose.

Joining wilwa in the optimist camp?
To be sure, it's nice to be rid of the cobbler this early, and the only way we could have fared better up to now would have been catching a wolf yesterDay instead of that (sadly predictable) Lottiewagon. Let's just not get over-confident; pride comes before the fall, and all that.
Speaking of said wagon, I'm more than a bit puzzled by Izzy going after Lottie so aggressively after this earlier post of hers:

Originally Posted by Izzy #

I disagree with the sentiment that you can never have too much joking. If the amount of joking is weighted against the actual playing, and is found to be heavier; then it is a bad time we will have in catching the wolves. As it means people can just hide behind the joke aspect of the game, which includes the wolves and cobblers. Then it will mean a tougher time distinguishing between actual joking around and showboat joking.

which, unless I'm completely misunderstanding something, seems to support Lottie's (and my own) uneasiness about Nerwen's jokes with good reasons. So whence the later attack on Lottie for saying that Nerwen's bantering looked like a disguise for evil? Wasn't she saying the same thing in other words?

And Nerwen, I'm sorry if I've come across as a humourless git, and I appreciate your playing according to the theme and all that, but it freaked me out because I found it impossible to get a read on you from that behaviour (not that it's that much easier when you're being serious, but still), and I suspected that could well be the purpose behind the whole act. The reason why I didn't actually vote you was that by voting time, I'd flip-flopped from "no she wouldn't" to "but then again, she might" and back to "but not really" so much that I wasn't sure myself anymore what I was currently thinking...
In clear Daylight, I'm inclined to think your performance yesterDay would fit a cobbler better than a wolf, and as the real cobbler is now accounted for, I'd have to say you look better toDay - if it wasn't for your vote driving the last nail into Lottie's coffin. Now that looks opportunistic to me...

[wilwarin538]

Wow. It's quite unusual for us to actually be happy about the person who dies at night, haha.


So first I have to comment on this post quite a bit, since it's bugging me, so I'm gonna get it out of the way right off the bat.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Another post to throw me off kilter with Wilwa:

And then later, in the EXACT same post:

Why go out of your way to defend him and then do a complete 180 to discredit him? This post is too flip-floppy for me (which is hilarious considering that I'M usually the flip-floppy one!)

This is just wrong. I did not do a 180 in that post, because that first quote is certainly not me defending him, it's actually me making my case against him (yes, it was weak, but it was Day 1). I did in an earlier post say that his defense was all right, but my problem grew when he was making little, and somewhat useless posts instead of contributing. So my point became that if he knew he wouldn't be able to contribute that much later on because of RL, then he shouldn't have bothered making that long defensive post and should have talked about something else instead. I would not call that me "going out of my way to defend him".

And you're still the flip-floppy one.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

No, no there really is no difference at all. Hmmm......

Yes, yes there really is. If he voted me with some reason for suspecting me, then cool, whatever. But he didn't have anything against me except that I voted him, and that's not quite so cool.

Then Glirdan first says my optimism is typical innocent Wilwa, and then later in the EXACT same post (yes, I'm mocking) he says that that makes me look bad, because other people brought points against me for that. So he himself didn't find it suspicious, rather innocent looking actually, but later after seeing that others found it suspicious, now he does too. Yes, still the flip-floppy one.

Glirdan, if you insist on always suspecting me then please atleast try a bit harder to interpret what I say properly instead of twisting my words around, cause that only leads me to suspect you, and you're usually innocent when I suspect you, so I'd rather not continually be wrong.

Ok.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Joining wilwa in the optimist camp?

It's fun here guys, you know you want in.


I need to get some breakfast.

I'll be around randomly throughout the day.

[Pitchwife]

Concerning the other riders on the tragic wagon, it should be considered that Kit and Dury haven't played much (if at all) with Lottie before, and therefore may be excused for finding suspicious what looked to me at least more or less like typical regular ordo-Lottie. Not quite the same for Glirdan.

Others:

Originally Posted by Kit's list #140

Nogrod: voted Pitch, didn't really give a reason in the vote post (I'll dig it up later I suppose)

He didn't really have to, he'd been suspecting me for quite a while before because of me supporting Lottie and vice versa and me saying the wolves wouldn't do such a thing.
Having slept over it, I must admit his case against me doesn't look as fabricated as I thought yesterDay - meaning I sort of see how he got there; the only thing that's wrong with his theory is that it happens to be - well, wrong.

Boro and wilwa voting each other: it's obvious from the Night-kill that the wolves had no idea Boro was the cobbler (and isn't it sort of strange that they didn't even consider the possibility after yesterDay's controversy about his first post?), so I'm afraid wilwa's vote doesn't really tell us anything about her, neither pro nor con. It's quite clear, however, that Boro thought her innocent.

sally voting wilwa: consistent with her earlier suspicion of wilwa on the grounds of forced optimism. That's not that much of a reason, but seems OK for a Day 1 vote.

(x-ed with wilwa. Interesting points about Glirdan...)

[wilwarin538]

it's obvious from the Night-kill that the wolves had no idea Boro was the cobbler (and isn't it sort of strange that they didn't even consider the possibility after yesterDay's controversy about his first post)

It is rather odd. Maybe they didn't think a cobblerBoro would do something so obvious? Or they may have seen something in another person's post that they took as a cobbler hint? It's hard to tell, but yeah, they certainly didn't see it as a possibilty, unless they wanted to kill the cobbler or didn't care about the cobbler, but both of those seem unlikely. But whatever the reason, it definitely boosted up my optimism.

[Nogrod]

A lot has been talked about the Lottie-wagon but there has been a relative silence as to what makes that wagon suspicious in the first place. Voting an innocent is not a mark of suspiciousness as such - we all do it all the time.

That means we should also consider why voting Lottie was suspicious if we say it is suspicious.

To my mind there are two things of some importance in any bandwagon in general.

Firstly if there is a kind of consensus about who to lynch it is easy for the wolves to blend in. Especially if they have been careful enough earlier not to make too elaborate points on other people so as not to look like making a 180.

This could fit the last voters of Lottie.

Secondly they might wish to join a rising tide in hopes of saving their mate from trouble.

The only competition for Lottie was Wilwa so this could fit those who voted to bring Lottie even and past her. Also if Wilwa is a wolf, the wolves might have felt uneasy with Boro's vote and thus be more inclined to kill him at Night.

The problem for me is that at least now I don't feel Wilwa to be especially suspicious, but that is in no way an informed position. I need to check her posting a bit more closely when I come back.

[Pitchwife]

Some musings on Glirdan:

Originally Posted by Glirdan #127

To help prove my point a little further about the Lottie versus Nerwen debacle, highlighting the points I find most interesting:
[extensive quote of the summary provided by yours truly, Pw.]
The next four posts after my typical Day 1 banter were by none other then the two in question. Bandwagon forming, or am I just delirious?

and later

Originally Posted by Glirdan #130

++Lottie
Haven't been trusting her since the start of the game after she jumped on the bandwagon after my bantering comment about Boro

Maybe I'm being dense, but which bandwagon exactly is this he keeps talking about? To the extent that there was any such thing at all in the posts he's referring to, it was directed at Boro, and it never really got rolling as far as actual votes were concerned (although, with hindsight, that wouldn't have been such a bad thing), as Lottie and Nerwen were busy at each other's throats by then, so why this strong reaction?

And some musings on Nog:

Originally Posted by Nog #74

But to see Pitch being the main source of my heightened suspicion of Nerwen makes me actually raise my eyebrow. A coincidence?

Really? After this

Originally Posted by Nog #19

And talking of cobbler hints, Nerwen's "Yay! Go wolves!" is on a class of its own. That she pleads insanity doesnt't do away the fact that she decided to voice that sentence in the first place.

and this

Originally Posted by Nog #53

Nerwen - I feel uncomfortable with her right now. The more people say she was probably just joking with her "Go wolves!" the more plausible it seems as a cobbler-tactics (or even wolf-tactics)... if you see what I mean. Your tendency to believe it a joke makes it a worthwhile deception.

and this

Originally Posted by Nog #61

If you look for the bold, look for Nerwen or Dury

you still needed me to heighten your suspicion? And after I'd discussed both the pro's and cons of a cobbler- or wolf-Nerwen acting like she'd been doing?
And speaking of coincidences, I can't help but find it funny (not furry, but funny) that right after I'd suggested looking for wolves among the reasonable people (including you, and thanks for returning the favour) your very next post was the entertaining rhapsody to 'Beautiful Soup'...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitch

you still needed me to heighten your suspicion?

Actually yes, I did.

The thing that raised my eyebrow first was her open declaration of supporting the wolves, in a joking manner of course. A joke or not, but you can see the end-result: most people think she is not a baddie because a baddie wouldn't do such a thing. Ergo: what should a wise wolf do? Just that.

Think of it from the perspective of a tight lynching with Nerwen and someone else facing the gallows, and how people would pick and choose their votes if they had no better ideas: "Gosh I can't say which one I suspect more but one of them is going to get lynched... what am I gonna do? Hey, Nerwen made that joke on D1! Surely a wolf wouldn't do that, would one? Oh, she must be the innocent one so I'll vote the other candidate."

Now someone of you say: "hey, but we're discussing her post now so it is not true it was a good move for a wolf!" But how much would it have been discussed if I hadn't incessantly kept it up?


But *back to the subject* yes, your analysis raised my suspicions to the next level - at least at first. The fact that Nerwen made that one post saying "Go wolves!" is quite a little in the end - and not a reason to campaign against a brilliant mind like hers on D1.

On Day1 mind you.

Anyway, when I came back to the computer and read your analysis of how the Boro-suspicion was born and how it developed it looked to me (on the basis of your analysis) that Nerwen was being the proponent who nicely drove the discussion towards Boro and that could be said to look wolvish as well: taking points from others and carrying them forwards to keep up the discussion and suspicions on safe-people (so not one of your own).

So your analysis really made me think about Nerwen's guilt with added strength. There were now two things I suspected her on. And there's a difference there. You have a thought "this might be suspicious indeed". Good but quite thin. You have another thing that fits well with your first suspicion... it starts to be much more believable.

Then I looked back at the first posts just to be on the safe side with my suspicions of Nerwen and found out that the feeling I got from there was quite different from what I got from your analysis. Thus it made me suspect Nerwen less and, not miraculously, to suspect you more for willing to make Nerwen look bad.


On the Glirdan's bandwagon issue: I think Glirdy meant the continuous talk about Boro. At least that is how I read it. Also I'm not sure if I would call it a strong reaction. It might as well be just falling short of any better reason.

Votewise Glirdy's vote is crucial though as he puts Lottie in the lead over Wilwa. So I'm not saying I think him innocent. I think none of you as innocents right now. But I'd say the thing that makes Glirdy suspicious is not his "strong reaction".

[Isabellkya]

Pitch. Loslote was suspicious of Nerwen over her "evil bantering"; not the entirety of joking. That post of mine that you quote was in response to a Loslote post where she stated that "you can never have too much joking". In response to my sentiments of disagreement, she stated that she had been joking.

Which bugged me just a bit.
It looked like she had not thought about why Nerwen would be "evil bantering" on the First Day if she were wolf, before she voted. Which struck me as odd. Which can be quoted.

What is wrong with optimism? Perhaps you are on the wrong side of the village to appreciate not having a cobbler around any longer.


X'd with Kitanna.