Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It! (Game Thread)

[Inziladun]

I thought I would take a look at Lottie a little closer myself.

Discussing Form and his premature posting during the Night:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either innocent!Formy posted by mistake (and I'd like to see his explaination for that before I consider him innocent) and wolf!RandomPoster saw this as an opportunity to...actually, that kind of falls apart. What would a wolf gain from posing early? Formy is starting to look like the only possible wolf in the bunch, just because he has a potential reason why he might post during the Night - to act like a clueless ordo, as I have said earlier.

Obviously we now know there was a wolf among the early posters, and it wasn't Form (that we know of).
In the same post she says:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't think more than one wolf would have posted among such a small group. It was, technically, still Night, so they would have been able to pm and plot mischief...and they wouldn't have lumped so many figurative eggs in one basket.

So by that logic, Form must be innocent, right?

This next was in response to my comment that a deliberate plot by a Formwolf to look innocent by posting early was unlikely.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why would Formy not have come up with such a complicated plot? And why is it complicated? Look utterly clueless by forgetting the Night = no Night business = no wolf. Very simple. Very clever. Might have worked.

Then Izzy brought up the idea that some previous games had begun with a Day phase. Lottie took off with it and read into Izzy's post more than I did.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Really? That might change things. If Formy was used to starting with Day phases... Hey, Formy, which way do you normally start?

'Which way do you usually start?' My answer would be coffee!

Now, this from Glirwolf, an analysis of Nienna.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Comments
Raised some valid points in most of her posts. She also talked agreed with Nog a lot as well which makes me more inclined to believe that he is innocent.

Much has been said already of Glirdan's apparent buttering up Nog, but Lottie was quick to latch onto the idea that Nienna's trust in Nog counted for something, which, since Nienna wasn't the Seer, doesn't mean a great deal.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nice to know I'm not just silly and someone else noticed it, too...she does talk about/to him a lot, doesn't she? You'd almost think she was a seer and dreamed him...maybe that's why the wolves killed her, thinking she *was* the seer. Huh.

I found that very far-fetched, and an odd remark.

In response to Izzy saying she and Glirdan sounded very much alike, she said this:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't know why we sound identical. I have noticed that we've cross-posted pretty often, and I'll look over his posts and think "dang, he said it first," or "hey, he thought so too, I'm not silly" and I've said so. I have not been trying to agree with him, and since we've cross posted, I doubt if he's been trying to agree with me.

Conclusions? Lottie doesn't look particularly good. Add in the flip-flops on Form, and the vote connexions between her and Glirdan, and it looks no better for her.

x/d with Eönwë and Wilwa

[Nerwen]

Okay. After Form's explanation toDay I think we can treat him and Zil as semi-known innocents, unless some really spectacular revelation occurs.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Conclusions? Lottie doesn't look particularly good. Add in the flip-flops on Form, and the vote connexions between her and Glirdan, and it looks no better for her.

Or, by extension, Nogrod (doesn't look too good to me in his own right, either).

I actually thought Lottie's Nienna-the-pseudo-Seer was a reasonable sort of theory at the time... but after the curious logical gymnastics that she used in her analysis of Glirdan, in which Form came out "pretty bad" for some reason, yet Nogrod remained pure as the driven snow... well.

Of course, if they are indeed packmates, Nogrod's now busy throwing Lottie under the bus, but what does that prove?

[Formendacil]

I'm stealing a lonely 5 minutes away from "Human Formation"--tonight will be another "well, this would have worked better with the 10:00 deadline"--and I'll do the same--hopefully!--before the deadline.

Has anyone given thought to whom we should pick as Simon? Fea is ineligible, obviously.

Not, mind you, that I think we need to rig it, as we have a few "Semi-Known Innocents" who will likely accrue votes at a higher rate... but it occurred to me as something to consider, and I have to be back being formed into a Human much too soon to reflect whether or not it's a sane idea to ponder.

[Formendacil]

Oh--and I do not right now think that I will be voting Wilwa, Lottie, or Steve.

Just so you know where my general "eermy" feelings lie.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Of course, if they are indeed packmates, Nogrod's now busy throwing Lottie under the bus, but what does that prove?

That I would be a megalomaniac fool wishing to try to survive alone against the whole village with the seer still alive...

You can think whatever you think of me, but that's just absurd.

I suggest you start thinking in some more logical ways, really... I can't stay up all Night correcting stuff like that.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That I would be a megalomaniac fool wishing to try to survive alone against the whole village with the seer still alive...

You can think whatever you think of me, but that's just absurd.

Nonsense, my friend, you need to have more faith in yourself.

Seriously– let's just suppose I'm right about you for a moment– in this situation, what else could you do?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On another scenario, I will not be voting for confidence toDay on Brinn as her nice remark on Izzy & Inzil saving her has been totally ignored by everyone. That would be exactly what a wolf-Brinn would / could have done! And that is not making a stance on Inzil or Izzy. She might have done that if one of the two was her mate or she could have done that if they were two innocents who just luckily saved her.

Hey, it's not my fault no one pays attention to my posts. Apparently, I'm easy to ignore...

I would like to see Inziladun as our Simon because I believe he is the one I can trust most; I'm feeling pretty confident in his innocence.

Time for another vote:

++Formendacil

I thought he looked innocent before the whole revenge kill thing and toDay I think he is being truthful in his posts. He seems pretty trustworthy right now.

One more vote left, which I'll be making soon since my favourite show ever is on during the last hour of the Day.

So here's who we have left:

Inziladun
Fea
Formy
Izzy
Lottie
Nerwen
Nogrod
Rune
Eonwe
Wilwa

Two of these players are wolves. As of now, I'm feeling quite sure that Inzil, Izzy, and Formy are innocent. Which leaves the rest. I don't have much time to think, but I'll do my best.

[Brinniel]

Votes so far...

Brinn-
Dun- 2
Fea- 1
Form- 2
Izzy- 2
Lottie-
Nerwen-
Nog-
Rune-
Steve-
Wilwa-

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Votes so far...

Brinn-
Dun- 2
Fea- 1
Form- 2
Izzy- 2
Lottie-
Nerwen-
Nog-
Rune-
Steve-
Wilwa-

Love you for this, by the way.

[Nerwen]

++Inziladun Very probably innocent, so why not make him Simon?

++Brinn Because she hasn't got any votes yet, and I'd prefer not to see her lynched.

My other two votes I'll hold for the moment until it's clearer how the voting is going.

Failing a sudden gifted reveal or something, I don't think I'll be voting for Lottie, Nog or Wilwa. The odds that no member of that trio is a wolf don't look good to me.

EDIT:X'd since Sally.

[Nogrod]

So then...

I'd suggest the lynch would go to Lottie or wilwa. They both voted Glirdan against any better judgement of an innocent - and they are smart people.

If not, then I'd think we should try Eönwë (his opportunism with first suddenly suspecting me after people had made some suspicious comments on me and I had not been around the whole Day - and then drawing it back immediately when I happened to come online - looks very suspicious indeed!)

Or Brinn the master-wolf whom no one suspects as she's so sneaky. If she is a wolf her post toDay was a masterpiece, but not the first she has made. It looks quite calculated - or then I'm just reading too much into her.

That will leave me with

Dun
Fea
Form
Izzy
Nerwen
Rune


I can vote Inzil for the double security (both Brinn and Form can't be lying while one of them can - unless there's a mysterious fifth wolf or one who plays to their hands)

++ Inzil

And I'm ready to see him as the Simon as he seems to be level-headed.

Of others, I still think Form would not have knowingly posted to the thread during the Night while discussing with other wolves. That is enough for me, at least now (who knows what kind of roles we have but it's vain to speculate on that kind of things now with no further knowledge).

++ Formendacil

And I have nothing agianst him being the Simon either.

If Brinn is a wolf then Izzy might be as well, but she has been reasonable and sharp enough toDay that I think she earns the place to live toMorrow.

++ Isabellkya


But where to put the last one?

I just plain feel awkward with this Fea-bandwagon of two Days now and leave choosing her to you others. Looking at her posts I have no reason to think her more innocent than anyone else.

Rune has been controversial to a point and said he'd have trouble with the internet connection toDay... but what Eönwë noted about the votes crossing Glirdan, wilwa and Rune I'm tempted not to vote him.

Nerwen has been mostly reasonable like she tends to be. But the fact that none supects her more tells me she is playing too carefully in a popularity based game, so I'm a bit torn about her...


Talking of which...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Seriously– let's just suppose I'm right about you for a moment– in this situation, what else could you do?

Let me see.

Supposing I'd be a wolf (and supposing then also that Lottie would be my mate).

I'd probably have posted when I got online around 10PM (my time), said I was in a hurry, noted some "suspicious things"... then making a few nice words of you, Fea, Brinn, Izzy, Inzil etc... (to gain enough good will even if you disagreed with my negligence of talking about Lottie)... Then I'd have said it's just too late and I need to go - voting for confidence to those whom I thought were the leaders of the popular opinion. And I would be sleeping already.

Or I could have made a fervent defence of Lottie just for the sport of it. That would have been a nice challenge indeed and something worthy of trying. Had I succeeded, that would have been a heroic tale to remember. Thinking of it now, I could actually have tried that.

I've played alone as a wolf against a whole village once and that was enough for me - and there was no seer left there. I managed a few Days but it was hopeless and doomed.

And anyway: haven't I been controversial enough for the seer to check me? Would I do that as a wolf? That would be a death sentence.


Just out of curiosity: were you a wolf Nerwen, how would you have played differently?

EDIT: x'd with more than I thought... & put the second last sentence to be the second last sentence as I had forgotten it into the middle...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Supposing I'd be a wolf (and supposing then also that Lottie would be my mate).

I'd probably have posted when I got online around 10PM (my time), said I was in a hurry, noted some "suspicious things"... then making a few nice words of you, Fea, Brinn, Izzy, Inzil etc... (to gain enough good will even if you disagreed with my negligence of talking about Lottie)... Then I'd have said it's just too late and I need to go - voting for confidence to those whom I thought were the leaders of the popular opinion. And I would be sleeping already.

Or I could have made a fervent defence of Lottie just for the sport of it.

Or you'd have tried to cut ties with her, but then perhaps tried to sow suspicion about as many other people as you could– oh, wait, you just did.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I've played alone as a wolf against a whole village once and that was enough for me - and there was no seer left there. I managed a few Days but it was hopeless and doomed.

Mmmn. I agree it wouldn't be fun. My point is that, supposing you were a wolf and Lottie– or, for that matter, Wilwa– your comrade, you'd know it still wasn't worth the risk of trying to save her.

Besides, there are a number of people in this village right now who have managed to win as lone wolves, sometimes with gifteds still around. And seers can be eaten at Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And anyway: haven't I been controversial enough for the seer to check me? Would I do that as a wolf? That would be a death sentence.

Not necessarily– but anyway I don't recall you were "controversial" at all most of this game.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just out of curiosity: were you a wolf Nerwen, how would you have played differently?

Why, looking for tips?

EDIT:X'd with vast hordes.

[Nogrod]

I was just coming to close the computer (with five hours to sleep )

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why, looking for tips?

No. That was actually a serious question. Were you a wolf you would have been just as smooth and opportunistic, or am I wrong? So should I ask how had you played if you were innocent perhaps? Maybe that would have made you feel I was asking you a real question?

[Nogrod]

Good points Inzil! I think we have a lynch candidate... along with wilwa I must say.

As I said just above - and which wilwa actually confirmed - it would have been very odd indeed if the wolves didn't try anything to save Glirdy yesterDay. I mean they could have counted on sympathy votes on D1 looking at Glirdy's terrible comeback a game before but on D2 they probably couldn't have counted on that anymore. And they were one down already.

So Lottie voted for him yesterDay out of the blue she hasn't yet explained why, and wilwa voted him on both Days (as said, she might have done that because of their rl friendship but if they were wolves together they would not have missed a chance to use that as an excuse).

I had actually forgotten that buttering up Lottie made on D1 as well. Looking at it now looks almost as bad as Glirdy's. (Is it just that middle-aged men don't feel so bad about younger women playing nice towards them than when young men do it? ) It might make sense though. With certain compilation of wolves I could see them talking together by Night: "let's be nice to the veterans, Nog, Fea, Nerwen & Brinn especially, so that they leave us in peace". Anyway it looks clear to me she has been very much trusting to Fea as well - and I haven't heard too many suspicions on Nerwen or Brinn either. So maybe there is some truth in there?

But if one looks at the buttering up, I think wilwa will still win the contest - if not on individual "I trust you soo much" -comments, but by the ever positive "I love you" and wrapping her suspicions in the "I want to trust her though" -remarks. If something is uncontroversial then that is. Looking at the votes she has gained she has succeeded in that quite well.

Remember the wolves need to make you feel good! The other innocents need to try everything - and that might mean also suspecting just you among others to see what comes.

So I'd say both Lottie & wilwa would be good candidates to lynch toDay.

On another scenario, I will not be voting for confidence toDay on Brinn as her nice remark on Izzy & Inzil saving her has been totally ignored by everyone. That would be exactly what a wolf-Brinn would / could have done! And that is not making a stance on Inzil or Izzy. She might have done that if one of the two was her mate or she could have done that if they were two innocents who just luckily saved her.

But whatever her role, she has totally managed to skim off any suspicions from her with that one post - at least I haven't seen anyone doubt her declaration at the start of the Day.

Okay. A short break and then voting...


EDIT: x'd with Nerwen