WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Wow. Lots of Lommy vs. Nog at the moment. I'm inclined to believe Nog, but Lommy's latest post has a very frustrated-ordo feel about it... however I was positive that one of Mac and Lommy was a wolf, and Mac's now dead.

I need to look at them closer.

I seriously can't see any of them as wolves at this point. They're both sticking their neck out mighty far in attacking the other.

Interesting that Lommy brings up a fact that Mac, Nog, nor I had been killed yet. Then Mac is killed who out the 3 of us, appeared to be accepted as the most innocent one.

It is silly how Lommy said she expected it to be her or Mac. But Lommy a wolf? That's not the feel I'm getting, how would wolf-Lommy benefit? I mean no one is going to unquestionably think..."Lommy is innocent, because she thought she was going to get killed." Saying that would only cause her trouble. Silly as it was, I think Lommy said it because I said yesterday how 2 of the 3 people who voted Mnemo twice were dead, all that's left was Lommy. Must have gone to her head. By pointing that out, I was hoping if she was innocent to anticipate the wolves next move and not have them kill Lommy, and also to try and get more time to look at her.

The wolves had a rocky start, but today (and the next) are going to be the most crucial, these are the swing days. Our situation isn't dire, as in "we have to get a wolf lynched now," but it is crucial. We either get it right and go into the night with 8 innocents (including the 2 gifteds) + 1 wolf. Or it's 7 - 2, with a good probability of it being 6-2 the next day. This is a crucial day for the wolves, but not desperate. I guess what I'm saying is, in this situation waiting in the shadows to enjoy all the sideshows taking place, getting the numbers evened out, getting better odds looks more likely than wolves sticking their necks out so forcefully just to get 1 person lynched.

As much as I want to go afterNog for his hypocritical reasons of suspecting me, I think he should only get a swat on the head for it. And to answer your question of the "consequences" I was referring to, I wasn't back-pedalling away from my wilwa-crusade. I was wrong, if you think I should be lynched for it, than do it. There will still be 2 wolves, but I won't be the worst loss.

This growing Lommy suspicion just looks too easy. Yes, Nog, I advocated for the simple and straight-forward, but that was in a situation when the day was closing and as much as people don't like bandwagoning, late counter-bandwagons turn out to be just as (if not more) of a disaster. So, yes late yesterday, I wanted to stay on-course so to say.

Today is a new day, new situation, new info to combine with the old, so don't be surprised if I don't go the "simple" road today and just lynch Lommy, because I don't like the looks of it. There is too big of a crowd that has been staying out of all these 1 on 1 battles we keep finding ourselves into.

(P.S. Lommy, if I stick my neck out for you and you turn out to be a wolf, you will be dead to me for a week).

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though. Maybe I'll be more coherent tomorrow.

Edit: X'ed with Morsul.

[Nerwen]

Okay... I had to go and do some stuff.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though. Maybe I'll be more coherent tomorrow.

The way Boro is springing to Lommy's defence now makes me wonder if it's Boro + Lommy. Or is that too simple?

I'd sort of come to think quite well of Boro, mainly because he tried to quash the "let's all agree to kill Lottie" thing– if she's innocent, as seems likely, that's a free kill for the wolves. But then a Borowolf might think supporting her would pay off in the long run.

On the other hand, I can't say I trust Nogrod either... though his frustration at finding Mac dead looks fairly genuine...

[Nerwen]

I really need to go back and read through everything. I've just been so flat-out the last few Days that I've been lazy and relied more on other people's analyses, which isn't a good thing.

[Thinlómien]

Loslote you being a known innocent does not mean thta you don't need to reason your votes or use your brains.

Okayaie, I'm less annoyed now, I'm not convinced Nogrod is a wolf but I won't be surprised at all if he turns out to be one. Here's a fair point by Nerwen:

though his frustration at finding Mac dead looks fairly genuine...

I didn't think of that and I agree with this statement. However, I can imagine him starting that analysis while waiting his fellow to reply his PM and then be sort of convinced to kill Mac instead (and thus abandon the analysis) and just then gloat about his sort of frustration here. Or of course he could be bluffing, but that seems less characteristic.

Originally Posted by Brinn

You thought you would be killed last Night? Really? After being fairly suspected yesterDay and wilwa turning out innocent? I'm not buying it.

You can call me silly, sure, but I did think of that as an option. I thought Mac's death as more probable, though, since he was suspected less by far. Besides the wolves have killed suspicious-looking previous Day's lynch-candidates before in this game (like Inzil).

Originally Posted by Brinn

And knowing her role would tell us so much. Gah, I just have to be right about this! *is attempting to channel Shasta's psychic abilities*

And what exactly would that tell you? If I was a wolf, my death could make you or Nogrod look better, but as I'm not, it won't really tell you anything. Just consider, what will you benefit if you lynch me and find out I'm innocent? Will that make you suspect yourself? Or Nogrod? Or do something else? And sorry darling, you are not right about this. If you lynch me, I will make sure my last words are "what did I tell you?"

You can lynch me if you want to. However, I don't think that's smart. That's one more innocent lynch, and although we can still afford that, it would be stupid. Especially as I really think you will get nothing out of my death (except maybe suspicion for Brinn, but that would serve her right ). And I'd like to echo what Boro said about this being a sort of crucial Day, so I'd prefer lynching a wolf toDay.

Originally Posted by Brinn

It's one of the many reasons I find Lommy suspicious; the way she casually said she could go for a Brinn lynch, but wasn't trying to push for it too much. Reminds me of something I've done as a wolf in previous games.

And why would I have done that as a wolf? My own life was in danger, I had expressed a lot of suspicion of Wilwa and she would've been the easy lynch. If I was a wolf, why not just go for Wilwa and not start meddling with some tricky last minute bandwagon when I myself had the shared place of most votes already? It just doesn't make any sense!

Originally Posted by Boro

Silly as it was, I think Lommy said it because I said yesterday how 2 of the 3 people who voted Mnemo twice were dead, all that's left was Lommy. Must have gone to her head.

No, it wasn't because of that. Didn't I say yesterDay myself that after you brought the whole thing up, it's unlikely [I'm going to die next? The only reason why I thought I could be killed is Mac's rather puzzlingly strong defense of me, which made at least me and Sally raise eyebrows, so why not the wolves? And when I said I expected to be killed, I'm not saying I was pondering who would get killed for the whole Night and conclude it's Mac or me. No. Merely when I was waiting for my private modly news service to send me an sms about the death since I wasn't around myself at DL, I started thinking who could've died and it just occured to me it could be Mac or me, more probably him. So I was not surprised when I got the message announcing Mac's death.

Originally Posted by Boro

This growing Lommy suspicion just looks too easy.

Agreed. I don't really get why I am so suspicious. If it's because of Wilwa, well, I'm not the only one who suspected her and there was even the possibility I wouldn't have voted her. And if advocating a lynch for innocent (Wilwa) makes me guilty, more or less everybody is guilty based on yesterDay, because I'm innocent too. And if it's because I said I thought I could've been killed - well as a wolf it probably wouldn't have occured to me that I could be killed, hint hint. No, as a wolf I wouldn't be ruthless enough to fabricate some "Mac and I might look gifted together" theory, then kill Mac as thanks for being more or less the only one who thinks me innocent and claim it proves my innocence. That would be quite gross. And speaking of this, if I was a wolf, why on earth would I have killed Mac? He was one of the few who really believed in my innocence. Why would I kill him then when there's considerable amounts of suspicion against me? Again, it doesn't make any sense.

Originally Posted by Boro

(P.S. Lommy, if I stick my neck out for you and you turn out to be a wolf, you will be dead to me for a week).

Now I feel like PMing Legate and asking him to change my role so that I'd see you sulking. Well seriously no, but you can be sure that you will be dead for me for a week, if you only gallantly step to my aid only because you're a wolf who thinks he will have a mighty good "I told you so" Day after I'm dead...

Originally Posted by Shasta

The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though.

YesterDay, I started with presenting the Nogrod-Sally theory, and toDay, Nogrod started by bashing my first post.

PS. for Nogrod - you diss me for suggesting you are a wolf because there would be so much wolf-on-wolf, yet you suspect me of all people. That's quite contradictory. If you claim wolves would shy away from massive amounts of wolf-on-wolvery, why are you jumping on a person who tried to get Mnemo lynched for two Days in a row and who voted second asnd third, both times at the sort of "get the bandwagon rolling" point?

PPS. I checked the vote count for Day2.

Originally Posted by Nienna, some numbers added by me

Lottie --> Lommy
Trom --> Boro
Mnemo --> Pitchwife
Nerwen --> Mnemo
Brinn --> Lottie
Boro --> Zil
Shasta --> Nerwen
Lommy --> Mnemo (2)
Morsul --> Lottie (2)
Wilwa --> Boro (2)
Greenie --> Mnemo (3)
Mac --> Mnemo (4)
Pitchwife --> Mnemo (5)
Zil --> Lottie (3)
Sally --> Lottie (4)
Nienna --> Lommy (2)
Nog --> Mnemo (6)
Eomer --> Mnemo (7)

Your vote wasn't decisive, it was maybe confirming, but not decisive. Mnemo would have died without your vote, especially as, if I recall correctly, Eomer who was left to vote after you had suspected Mnemo quite a lot.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back.

I agree with the whole fighting back part. Lommy feels like a cornered wolf to me and I swear I remember seeing her act this way before as a threatened wolf. Which is probably why I'm so convinced she is one this time.

If I'm somehow wrong about Lommy, I don't think that necessarily means Nogrod is guilty. At this stage, I don't really see why a wolfish Nogrod who has been under not much scrutiny himself would want to build this huge case against an innocent who could probably still get lynched without it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The way Boro is springing to Lommy's defence now makes me wonder if it's Boro + Lommy. Or is that too simple?

I'd sort of come to think quite well of Boro, mainly because he tried to quash the "let's all agree to kill Lottie" thing– if she's innocent, as seems likely, that's a free kill for the wolves. But then a Borowolf might think supporting her would pay off in the long run.

I'm not sure a Borowolf would be so obvious in defending her if they were packmates. There's a good chance Lommy could be lynched toDay, and if they were wolves together, I'd imagine the smarter thing to do would be to go wolf on wolf. And I know Boro doesn't mind throwing fellow wolves under the bus, so why would he defend his mate if it'll only make him look worse?

Originally Posted by Lommy

And what exactly would that tell you? If I was a wolf, my death could make you or Nogrod look better, but as I'm not, it won't really tell you anything. Just consider, what will you benefit if you lynch me and find out I'm innocent? Will that make you suspect yourself? Or Nogrod? Or do something else? And sorry darling, you are not right about this. If you lynch me, I will make sure my last words are "what did I tell you?"

I did say I have doubts that you and Sally are wolves together, so knowing your role could raise or lower my suspicions of her. That's only one example.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't really get why I am so suspicious. If it's because of Wilwa, well, I'm not the only one who suspected her and there was even the possibility I wouldn't have voted her.

Nah. Your vote for wilwa only added fuel to an already burning fire. I've been suspecting you since the end of Day 3.

[Nogrod]

Reading through the thread I was quite amazed of the fast and easy "Lommy-wagon" - even if people suspecting her had suspected her earlier as well. But it looked really bad.

Which brought me to this:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Loslote you being a known innocent does not mean thta you don't need to reason your votes or use your brains.

Now let's pause for a moment.


Lottie called her role as the "Birthday dreamer"

Now please veterans help me out (Lommy & Boro I think have played long enough) or those who have read the really old games...

But wasn't a "birthday dreamer" a person who got to dream of someone on a certain pre-given Night (like Night 3 or 4) - and then got the role of the one s/he dreamt?!!!

That is the birthday -part of it: as a present that person may take the new role (I don't remember whether it was compulsory to take that role or whether there was a choice involved).

Enedwaith...

Feel free to suspect me that I'm trying to out our only "known innocent", but I'm pretty serious. It is a real concern to me at least now that I remembered the nature of that role, as it had been. Not only because it would mean we have actually three wolves left and not just two, but also that one of them might lie down in front of us trusted by everyone.

If I was a wolf and the stuff I say was just my trick on you, please consider would I then try to voice this concern this openly? I know some of you jump on me saying: he's trying to speak against Lottie once more and she must be innocent. But I have felt the whole Lottie-thing being odd all the time. Was it Wilwa who said that what an anticlimax to have a once dreaming seer as the secret role... I agree. And looking at what she does doesn't make me think of her any more innocentish.

A birthday dreamer - old-school way - would be a neutralish role in the beginning as that person could dream of anyone; gifted or wolf or ordo...

Why did they sacrifice Pitchie then? A good question... Maybe there was a ruling that if she found a wolf he should be revealed as not to make the game too uneven (already four wolves in the beginning and then this to put people off the track even more)?

I'm not sure about this... well how could I be? But consider, especially you who are familiar with the "Birthday dreamer".

Okay, now to make myself a dinner... just had to vent this out.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though. Maybe I'll be more coherent tomorrow.

That was my point, right now they need days, they need to even out the numbers. If one of them was a wolf, wouldn't you expect a little more calmness instead of immediate retaliation towards the other? They need days, and if one of them is a wolf, than either Nog or Lommy are really placing the last wolf in a terrible situation.

I don't like the how the attention has been narrowed down to 2 people, when there are 6-7 others chilling around. When I get back from class I'll look at those others.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That was my point, right now they need days, they need to even out the numbers. If one of them was a wolf, wouldn't you expect a little more calmness instead of immediate retaliation towards the other? They need days, and if one of them is a wolf, than either Nog or Lommy are really placing the last wolf in a terrible situation.

I don't like the how the attention has been narrowed down to 2 people, when there are 6-7 others chilling around. When I get back from class I'll look at those others.

Nerwen... maybe because she defended me my first game seems so low on my suspect meter and yet deep withing a nagging doubt...

Boro still waiting to see why I look bad

Shasta not off the radar yet but slipping away...

Sally still my top suspect...

Living room and Bedroom and Laundry I refuse to be distracted by WereWolf! My participation will be my own reward once I'm done cleaning...

[satansaloser2005]

Caught up (sorry I took so long but I had to catch up on all my internet stuff) and needless to say I'll be sticking with what I said yesterDay. Wilwa, alas, was an innocent, which makes me very uneasy with Lommie. (And now after Mac's dead I need to have a really good look at Nog too.)

Warning in advance. If I can only drop in and vote without looking things over further I'll be voting for Lommie (or possibly Brinn, but Lommie's my first choice). I want to save my vote because it's really early but if I can't get back in and a wolf escapes because I couldn't vote I'll be really upset. Blah.

Village, it's up to you now. I don't think I'll be around much for a couple Days so be sure to make good choices and look things over carefully. Best of luck and I'll see you when I can.