WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Macalaure]

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pitchalysis

(I don't know how to link posts, so forgive me. They're numbered, though. I skipped over all the banter.)

#27 (Mac) - "Pitch gives me an innocent feel, for some reason." Interesting, considering he's said nothing but banter up to this point.

#35 (Boro) - Clarifies a suspicion of Pitch based on a Captain Obvious moment.

#51 (Pitch) - "I agree about not lynching reasonable people, especially not those who have made an effort to turn this into a serious discussion - which would be Roa, Mnemo and Boro, most notably.
" Roa left the game as an innocent and Mnemo's a dead wolf. What does this say about Boro, I wonder?

#57 (Mac) - Mentions that Pitch's comment about the Boro-reasonableness-versus-unreasonableness debate "might be" suspicious.

#58 (Lommy) - Is inclined to like Pitch for being agreeable and sensible, but wonders if he's not too agreeable. A rather nice fence-sit, in my opinion.

#91 (Nog) - Calls Pitch "one of the most dangerous wolves there are" because of his tendency to slip under the radar.

#102 (Pitch) - Thinks Boro ought to get a break, as he's "stirring the pot". Also considers him to be dodgy (I'm nullifying the obvious qualifier here).

#106 (Pitch) - Notes Mac's use of double standards.

#108 (Mnemo) - "Might" vote for Pitch because he feels a little "off" (says the same for Inzil). Typical wolvish distancing.

#112 (Mac) - Brings Pitch down from "innocent" to "unsure". Interesting.

#120 (Pitch) - Mentions that Morsul looks rather innocent.

#127 (Pitch) - Says a lot without saying much. Notes that Eomer makes more good points than anyone else mentioned in the post (Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, and myself). Also notes that Nerwen seems to be acting differently than usual... and then qualifies it.

#128 (Mnemo) - More wolvish distancing. Says she'll vote for Pitch or Inzil.

#133 (Eomer) - Puts Pitch in the "Will probably vote for one of" category, along with six other people.

#139 (Mac) - Puts Pitch (and Mnemo!) in the "I would like to avoid voting" category. For a Mac who's won by sacrificing his wolf partners, this seems strange for a Macwolf to do, but I wouldn't put it past him (oh no, qualifying is becoming contagious!)

#150 (Pitch) - Pushes Nogrod as having the secret role. Why?

#155 (Mac) - Flipflops on Pitch again, seeing him as innocent.

#158 (Nogrod) - Notes that both Inzil and Pitch both are being "careful".

#162 (Pitch) - votes Mac for "double standards, general slipperyness, plus the flip-flopping Zil pointed out."

#192 (Mnemo) - More distancing. "I need to take a closer look at Pitch and Inzil today."

#198 (Pitch) - A few things. First, Pitch doesn't get Boro's comment about Inzil and Mac not being gifted. Doesn't want to assume anything about Inzil and Mac. Secondly, interacts with Mac, wanting to know about his feelings about Inzil (also mentions Mnemo here).

#205 (Mnemo - Subtly backs up Pitch on the subject of gifteds not necessarily revealing when up for a lynch. I wonder if they weren't setting each other up for a reveal of some kind, or at least giving themselves fodder to contest a reveal later should it happen.

#207 (Nogrod) - Calls Pitch's vote for Mac into question.

#213 (Pitch) - Says something I find amusing, in hindsight: "I rather prefer staying out of Day 1 bandwagons." Hence his vote for Mac (third of four). Right.

#217 (Mac) - Says he would like to take a closer look at Pitch and Mnemo. Interesting...

#233 (Nogrod - "Mac and Pitch are not both wolves." I have a problem with statements like this. They're far too absolute.

#273 (Lommy) - "Nogrod has quite good points against Pitchie, but I still wonder about him too." Lommy, when you say "him", which "him" are you referring to? Pitch or Nog? Also, has both Mnemo and Pitch in her "Leaning guilty" group.

#274 (Mac) - Uncomfortable with suspecting Pitch if other people are going to do the same. A rather odd comment.

#313 (Mac) - Grants Pitch more innocence. Mac, you flip-flop on Pitch a lot.

#334 (Eomer) - Notes that he didn't want to vote Pitch (or Brinn or Lommy).

#343 (Pitch) - Starts to jump on me for my vote for Inzil, butting into a conversation between Morsul and Nienna.

#345 (Morsul) - Agrees with Pitch against me.

#350 (Lommy) - Thinks there's something fishy about Pitch.

#356 (Nogrod) - "Some of Pitch's posting looks odd and over-careful."

#359 (Sally) - Puts Pitch in her "Possible wolves" column. I think this is the first time she's even mentioned Pitch.

#360 (Pitch) - Notes that voting to save someone by giving someone else their second or third vote doesn't look innocent (referring to Nienna and myself). Also thinks my vote for Nerwen was "voting those who're too reasonable". Um, what?

#363 (Wilwa) - First time she's mentioned Pitch, calls him "iffy" after a quick skim and might vote for him. Interesting. Notes that her vote will probably be between Boro and Pitch.

#372 (Nogrod) - Considering a Pitch vote for being too nice.

#381 (Wilwa) - "I've decided it would be best for me to stick with Boro as previously stated." Is this a wolf not wanting to be accused of a wolf-on-wolf vote?

#386 (Sally) - "Pitch: another bad vibe, to be honest;" Interesting.

#395 (Pitch) - Clearly defends Mac against Morsul which I find odd.

#416 (Bes) - First time Bes has really mentioned Pitch. Suspects Mac, Pitch, and Nogrod all equally.

#426 (Eomer) - Puts "innocent?" by Pitch because of his vote for Mnemo.

#427 (Pitch) - Refutes Eomer and says his vote was safe. (Eomer clarifies in the next post - he meant his Day 1 vote). Qualifies the rest of his conclusions.

#438 (Nogrod) - Mnemo's vote for Pitch flips what he thinks about Pitch - "more innocent than not". Pitch looks rather good for his vote for Mnemo.

#440 (Eomer) - Has Pitch firmly in the "Innocent" column. Interesting.

#444 (Pitch) - Flip-flops his stance on my vote for Nerwen Day 1, even though he's replying to something Nogrod said about someone completely different.

#451 (Pitch) - "Of the Lottie-votes, I'd say Brinn looks the most innocent to me."

#460 (Mac) - Vacillates on Pitch before finally finding him innocent on account of the wolves' kill choice of Inzil.

#461 (Wilwa) - As a side affect of her Mnemo analysis, thinks Pitch to be innocent.

#476 (Nerwen) - Seems to be a general consensus; thinks Mnemo's vote for Pitch was unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf.

#481 (Mac) - Feels quite good about Pitch, in both situations.

#483 (Lommy) - Pitch is "probably innocent". Dang, he certainly had it made before Lottie's reveal.

#497 (Wilwa) - Is suddenly wary of Pitch again, mostly after being called on it by Boro. A flustered wolf? Immediately puts him in the "most uneasy" column.

#517 (Pitch) - Finds Bes's vote for Lottie suspicious.

#518 (Sally) - Agrees with Pitch regarding Bes. I dunno, such stout backing up doesn't lead me to think wolf-on-wolf - Sally's smarter than that.

#519 (Boro) - Applaud's Pitch's lack of agreeableness in posting an alternate perception, that Lottie was an attempt to save Mnemo.

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.

#539 (Lommy) - Is quite convinced that Pitch is an ordo.

---------------

Surely not all, Mac. I analyzed those who interacted with [b]Pitch[b], too.

Edit: Formatting.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shasta

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.

Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Had you seen that and were just restating something that you agreed with, or did you come up with that yourself?

EDIT: xed with Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Had you seen that and were just restating something that you agreed with, or did you come up with that yourself?

EDIT: xed with Sally

I saw that you mentioned it, but I put it in the analysis basically independently.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I saw that you mentioned it, but I put it in the analysis basically independently.

Okay, thanks. That, at least, makes me feel a bit more confident in easing up on suspecting Bes.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

Pitchers(o' ice), you get to have all the fun by being a known wolf for the day. I've had that pleasure before, and I have to tell you we go much easier on the wolves who co-operate. So, give up you're other two buds and we'll give you a nice, quick, death.

How come you're so sure?

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

Exactly.

Of course, I totally see you all have no logical choice but lynching me toDay to find out the truth (Mr Agreeable doubling as Captain Obvious, for a change). It still sucks... just as I was getting warmed up...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Bes

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems.

I know he's a newbie but it sounds like he was a little let down our beloved ranger isn't dead yet. And why is this point relevant? (I ask because it's possible I skipped a post.) Is he just trying to make himself look more innocent/new to avoid being lynched for his behavior? (Again, posing the question. I'll have to look at his posts more fully before I make a decision.)

In other news, I've quite a suspicion that Shasta could be a problem. I mean really, who doesn't, but I thought I'd put that out there. I'm not happy with him.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by sally

I know he's a newbie but it sounds like he was a little let down our beloved ranger isn't dead yet. And why is this point relevant? (I ask because it's possible I skipped a post.) Is he just trying to make himself look more innocent/new to avoid being lynched for his behavior? (Again, posing the question. I'll have to look at his posts more fully before I make a decision.)

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

K, thanks. I figured I'd missed something.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Mac

Pitchwife a wolf? Very good. Let's get the pitchforks and lynch him!

Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.

[Nogrod]

I'm coming to yesterDay... *how slow can you be?*

But I can see the reason already why the suspicions on Pitchie went down: because of the mutual voting between Mnemo and Pitch. One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!

Just look at Shasta's summary how everyone drops the suspicion and calls Pitchie "innocent(ish)" after D2 votes & learning Mnemo was a wolf afterall. Can we be this simple?

But interestingly there are only a few people who even commented on Pitch earlier... I'll try to collect my data into some intelligible stuff as I run through yesterDay first - and see if there are any patterns of opportunism to be found.

[Macalaure]

YesterDay's voting

Morsul -> Morsul (...)
Lottie -> Bes
Nerwen -> Nienna (as I said yesterDay, considering that she had little time, this vote looks ok)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (she was under suspicion a lot yesterDay, so a vote that perfectly fits an attempt to save herself isn't surprising, but at this early point, it's extremely suspicious)
Eomer -> Sally (sounds perfectly reasonable, but I agree with the people who find him eerie)
Bes -> Lottie (with his explanations toDay, this vote looks ok)
Boro -> Wilwa (I really can't imagine a guilty Boro anymore. If you're a wolf, hats off)
Pitch -> Sally(2) (considering the considerable suspicion against her, this would have been a daring wolf-on-wolf. He even makes points against Nienna in his voting post, so going save and voting her would have been easy. Sally looks better)
Me -> Wilwa(2)
Green -> Sally(3) (has Greenie been killed in part to set up Sally?)
Sally -> Wilwa(3) (I might be a bit biased about people who vote Wilwa, but especially considering that Sally voted to save her life, I see no fault with this one)
Lommy -> Nienna(3) (unsure about this one, very unsure. The problem is that all three were under suspicion from quite early on, so it's easy for a wolf to be consistent. I see no obvious malintent, but Lommy is eerie as well)
Nogrod -> Nienna(4) (one of the worst votes yesterDay, but for the same reason as with Lommy, it's difficult to judge)
Nienna -> Wilwa(4)
Brinn -> Sally(4) (did she cross with Nienna's vote? Their votes came during the same minute, but Brinn didn't say anything, and a simple vote can be typed in seconds. If it's not crossed, then why on earth did she vote for Sally? If she was so opposed to have Nienna die, voting Wilwa was the only logical possibility, even if she might have suspected Sally more)
Shasta -> Nienna(5) (to his defense, he said he was going to, and Nienna was already leading (first to reach 4), so this wasn't a crucial vote. Nevertheless, a very bad one here)

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.

Will do.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.


Will do.

Mnemo, Pitchie, Wilwa, and Lommy. I'd bet that's our pack.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry about disappearing; my internet died.

Anyway, I'm very confused. Every time I think I've pinned down the pack(tm) I see someone else who looks suspicious to me. Gah!

My list at the moment. Sorry if it's not very well-defined.

Guilty
Pitch

Very suspicious
Wilwa
Shasta

Suspicious
Lommie (bordering on the very suspicious, but I kept my above list to two people....she's interchangable with the other two but that's how I'm feeling now)
Brinn (also very close to the above list, but not enough to be at the top)
Bes (but I'm willing to accept that it's just because he's new)

A bit suspicious
Boro (because of how he flipped on me so hard....other than that just hunching)
Morsul (Meh....I'm not comfortable with his Nilp move....could have been to make sure we wouldn't kill him, but I don't know)

Could go either way (meaning I need to look at them because I can't decide)
Nerwen
Eomer
Nog
Mac

Innocent
Lottie
Sally


I think a big problem with this list is that I had to keep looking at it in order to make sure I had everyone. Which means I'm ignoring people. I hate that.

[Nogrod]

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent. Let me ask you what would you have said if I had been inconsistent with an obvious malintent?

What this tells me is that you have first decided that you would like to walk me to the gallows and then come up with reasons afterwards. Sad. So sad.

And Brinn, you asked me something yesterDay... I had to go back and look as the last half an hour I only had sporadic access to reading as we were sharing the computer.

Well you can look at my posts #489 and #541 to begin with. I'll just copy a part of #541 here...

Originally Posted by me

You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her...

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?

So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day. Sadly it was wrong as well.


Okay. I try to stay up long enough to make a summary of what I saw in relation to Pitch going through the thread.

[satansaloser2005]

Nog, go to bed!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nogrod]

Okay, I have never tried this kind of analysis before... let's see if it helps anyone but me.

So a + means the one thinks Pitchie more good than evil, a 0 means something like neutrality, and a - means the one thinks him more suspisious than not.

I have not taken known innocents abroad but Greenie seemed to suspect Pitchie quite (to the end) a lot and Inzil was more or less wavering. I have included Mnemo though just to show the perspective.

And the mentionings are in the order they appeared on that Day...

Day1

Mac: + (gives an innocent feel)
Mac: - (might be suspicious)
Lommy: 0 (inclined to like him but is he too agreeable?)
Morsul: + (feels innocent)
Nog: - (three people: considerate and reasonable, thus dangerous)
Boro: - (four people: expecting more from but far from seeing it)
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; feel a bit off, maybe a vote, wants to hear more)
Mac: - (too quick with declaration of innocence; not sure anymore) sure?
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; giving her the closest thing to a wolvish vibe)
Eomer: - (will probably vote for someone out of seven candidates; no reason given for Pitch being there)
Mac: + (would like to avoid voting him alongside five others - while not voting eight others)
Mac: + (he looked first innocent, then less and yet more innocent again)
Nog: - (Pitch & Inzil; looks helpful rather than is, careful indeed)

Day2

Mac: - (bandwagoning on him on D1, throws stuff but claims it a vibe-thing)
Mnemo: 0 (Pitch & Inzil: wants to make a deeper look at them)
Nog: - (agree with Mac it looks bandwagonish… seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts)
Lottie: - (looks suspicious, but doesn't have anything solid yet)
Nog: -(puts a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone, restating earlier points - as it is a list post)
Mac: (says earlier two times and here as well that he will look at Pitch closer...)
Bes: - (after Macanalysis ending up willing to vote him he says he might have considered me or Pitchie as well)
Mnemo: - (makes a damning analysis: silly jumpiness & posting in chunks)
Lommy: - (leaning guilty list: he's one of the five, no explanation given)
Mac: 0 (needs to "verify his own suspicion" but doesn't like the way people suspect him)
Lommy: - (comments on votes given; wouldn't be so sorry if Pitch died, because there's something fishy in his posts)
Nog: - (some of his posting looks odd and over-careful, giving two examples #110 & #127 of wishing especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way)
Sally: - (lists him along the "possible wolves", not wolves though or those she doesn't have anything)
wilwa: - (could vote him among others; makes her feel uneasy and is iffy)
Nog: - (speculating on voting possibilities and restating things already said)
Wilwa: 0 (thought she might go with Pitch but decides to stick with Boro)
Sally: - ("another bad vibe, to be honest; I had evidence but can't remember what it was right now, so basically he's just acting strange and I don't like it")
Bes: - (will not vote but stays with the same three suspect; Mac, Nog & Pitch)

Day3

Eomer: + (because of the Mnemo voting him)
Nog: + (because of the Mnemo voting him and him voting Mnemo)
Mac: + (the voting + the wolves picking Inzil: "Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them")
Wilwa: + (Mnemo voted him at a time that he very well could have been lynched)
Lottie: 0 (seems innocent, maybe too much so?) [later put him into slightly suspected category in a list]
Nerwen: + (Mnemo's vote was unlikely a wolf-on-wolf)
Mac: + (with evidence and feeling Pitch is "quite good")
Wilwa: - (reconsiders: his vote on D1 tied Mac with Mnemo and on D2 it might have been a give-up)
Lommy: + (quite convinced he's an ordo: no bad vibes + Mnemo-stuff)
Shasta: - (agrees with Wilwa, could vote for him with three others)


A few thoughts to follow...

[Brinniel]

I should just rub it in all your faces now and say I told you so. It was a mistake to lynch Nienna, she was the easy lynch, the most obvious suspect usually turns out innocent, blah, blah, blah. Shame on those who didn't listen, especially the ones who accused me of being a wolf defending a fellow wolf (I mean really, where's the logic here?). You may have killed Nienna, but she still gets her brownie. So there.

I'm much more ready to believe Loslote toDay as she's exposed a wolf and I would expect a baddie posing as a wolf to 'dream' of an innocent. Otherwise it's plain suicide...unless she's a wolf sacrificing a fellow wolf to look good which I don't find at all likely since it's rather risky (especially since I can't recall Pitchwife receiving much suspicion, so why sacrifice him). Anyway, we can lynch him toDay, but we should also be a bit productive and try to sniff out the other two.

Lommy I'm very suspicious of due to her posts at the end of yesterDay. Shasta I was worried about already and I'm worrying about him even more toDay. Nogrod, I'd like you to answer my question from the end of yesterDay because I'm still confused why my post decided your vote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinn

we should also be a bit productive and try to sniff out the other two.

Lommy I'm very suspicious of due to her posts at the end of yesterDay. Shasta I was worried about already and I'm worrying about him even more toDay. Nogrod, I'd like you to answer my question from the end of yesterDay because I'm still confused why my post decided your vote.

I agree about Lommy, but I don't see much suspicious about Shasta or Nog. This is not to say that I would fight tooth and nail to prevent their lynching; I just don't think they're the other two wolves. I'd prefer looking at Wilwa, to be frank.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree about Lommy, but I don't see much suspicious about Shasta or Nog. This is not to say that I would fight tooth and nail to prevent their lynching; I just don't think they're the other two wolves. I'd prefer looking at Wilwa, to be frank.

I concur.


Now back to explaining my grand scheme. Back in a moment.

[Loslote]

Wait, you agree? I thought you said you thought Shasta could be a big problem.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Wait, you agree? I thought you said you thought Shasta could be a big problem.

Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I agree about Lommie being a good suspect. And I do think Shasta's a problem; Nog, not so much. So 2/3?