WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Nogrod]

We could apply my theory of "radical contingency and non-linear anticipation of quantumlevel events" I made a paper for the Royal Society on May 23th 2003 - and combine it with some fractal-analysis and the interesting pieces of hitherto unknown Mayan myths on predestination I have quite recently published a book about? ("Is the time-space continuum a trick by God to test our faith? - The early medieval Mayan metaphysical escathology approached from a modern scientific angle", Oxford University Press 2008)

For the question sure is which unlikely events are unlikely for real and which are unlikely only when predicted on the basis of bad old-fashioned mechanistic theories that should be thrown to the same grave with the most honourable sir Isaac (esq.)?

I mean you medics are always so down to earth and I appreciate it when you're stiching a wound or mending a broken collarbone, but you know, we have lots to learn from balancing our chakras first. Awakening the kundalini-energies would be releasing such an infinite reserve of untapped power we could run the whole planet on western living-standards without a single milligramme of emissions!

So let's not forget that the world is not as it looks like it is. Only brave and bold science not chained by everyday trivia and perceptual commonplaces can reveal the hidden truth of the universe - and thence of our fate as well.

Now please excuse me, I have some lab-work to do as my latest set of experiments requires my full attention rather immediately.

[Mnemosyne]

Nogrod, my friend, I have three words for you:

Peer.

Reviewed.

Journals.

I may not be familiar with your field, but I know a pedant when I see one, and let me tell you I don't trust any theory until it's been verified multiple times by multiple parties, and published in multiple journals, preferably with different interests (aside from the noble interest in Scientific Veracity) in mind to show that their minds haven't been swayed by anticipation of the results. That's why they like doing double blind tests in my field--though I haven't done much work on that sort of experimental stuff since my days in med school.

As for your chakra theories (though I do appreciate your appreciation for actual medical science), this is the best thing I can say in response.

[Loslote]

Interesting discussion so far. Many long words. I found it inspiring. I'd try to understand it, but honestly, I'm too lazy. I'll just say Nog was being very scientific and Mnemo, for some reason, doesn't appreciate the lack of showers. Meh...not too much to comment on, is there?

[Nogrod]

*hears the medic's words from the door and turns*

Show me a verified theory, any theory, and I'll show you a perpetuum mobile...

You can predict a thing happens - like that a hypothesis "works" - for any foreseen scenario, but they always predict only individual cases ("this pen on my hand will fall if I release it now"). But the fact that the prediction is fullfilled has nothing to do with verifying any abstract theory whatsoever (how do you jump from a positive result of an individual pen dropping to the law of gravitation?).

So let's just stick with probabilistic theories leaving room for indeterministic factors in the universe and forget that outdated mainstream hodgepodge that is suited for naturalists and other mechanical deteminists who don't have the faintest of the actual quantum-machanics behind the universe but are stuck with their 18th century views on things?

Oh, my test-tubes... excuse me...

[Pitchwife]

Fascinating as your expositions sound, my esteemed colleague Nogrod, I must admit I fail to perceive how they pertain to our current predicament.
All I can say with any certainty is that this death can hardly have been caused by any marine creature native to these latitudes that I'm familiar with. Anything with well-developped tentacles would probably qualify for the strangling, but I don't think a kraken or octopus could have demolished the controls like that, and the corpse doesn't show any marks of suction cups.
Nienna mentions wolves, which, however, are unlikely to be found in the Arctic Sea, miles from any land.
No, this looks like the work of human hands; and as we're quite isolated from civilization and outside interference, it seems we must look for the culprit among our team - appalling as the thought is. (Unless we have a stowaway on board; it would be a good idea to search the cargo holds.)

EDIT: x-ed with the meteorologist.

[Boromir88]

As far as I'm concerned Legate deserved it for being too lazy to report my title properly. And I want to lynch sally for trying to go bigger.

On the brighter side, I would like to enter into a partnership/compare notes with Brinn for the obvious sarcastic reasons.

[Nienna]

Wow kids way to be productive so far. Nogrod I'm shocked at you. This is a new side that I haven't seen. Not that it isn't a nice side but its different.

So we have 4 wolves, two gifteds and a secret role. Unless the secret role is a seer we don't have one of those. Our gifteds can talk though so they know each other which will give us known innocents later in the game. We've had a lot of early reveals without reason lately and I don't really recommend this. Voting toDay is necessary so someone will be lynched. We don't want to loose a gifted to day One lynching either so that would be the only real reason I can see for revealing.

I'll be around tonight and a few hours before deadline but I have class when deadline is so I won't be around then.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nienna

We've had a lot of early reveals without reason lately and I don't really recommend this.

Agreed. McCaber's game was just painful. Let's try to avoid tons of reveals and false-reveals and counter-reveals and such. They pretty much just make major headaches. And like Nienna said, it's not really helpful.

Deadline is iffy for me, too, but I should be around. It's noon my time, but I probably can get on around eleven...here's hoping.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Agreed. McCaber's game was just painful. Let's try to avoid tons of reveals and false-reveals and counter-reveals and such. They pretty much just make major headaches. And like Nienna said, it's not really helpful.

Miss Lottie, with all due respect, you seem to be confusing our serious emergency with one those online games your generation indulges in!
I confess, however, I sometimes play those games myself for recreation after hours of strenuous research. It just so happens I was part of the very game you mention, and my subjective impression was that the reveals actually were quite helpful - the villagers defeated the wolves, remember?
Not that I advocate any rash actions by specially talented people, if such be among our crew - not now, at least, while we still know very little about our situation. But the time may come.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Miss Lottie, with all due respect, you seem to be confusing our serious emergency with one those online games your generation indulges in!
I confess, however, I sometimes play those games myself for recreation after hours of strenuous research. It just so happens I was part of the very game you mention, and my subjective impression was that the reveals actually were quite helpful - the villagers defeated the wolves, remember?
Not that I advocate any rash actions by specially talented people, if such be among our crew - not now, at least, while we still know very little about our situation. But the time may come.

Yes. They ended up being helpful. Mostly because no one knew what was going on. And remember, we skipped over the wolf in the batch, Morsul, and left him alive for much longer than he probably would have lasted otherwise. Plus, I had already written "for Morsul was the Agent" in my poem, and when I finally figured out what had happened, the poem was already ruined.

[Nerwen]

Well, here's the bad news: whoever smashed up the equipment did a very thorough job. I've had another look, but I getting it working again would be impossible, as far as I can see. So, we're on our own. Just confirming that.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Now, to the business that troubles us most. While I am a servant of empiricism by trade, my mind has always been rather imaginative. Certainly it seems the disppearance of the captain, and subsequent murder of the one best equipped to aid us in returning to habitable lands, are related. Why? I don't believe in such coincidences. But why would one of our own, whose fate is bound with ours at this juncture, wish to commit such acts?

Academic quarrel? You scientific types get carried away sometimes... *nods darkly*

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yes. They ended up being helpful. Mostly because no one knew what was going on. And remember, we skipped over the wolf in the batch, Morsul, and left him alive for much longer than he probably would have lasted otherwise.

Yes, I play those games too. Just because the baddies chose to give themselves away in one game doesn't mean they will again– and definitely doesn't mean it'll work that way in real life.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Wow kids way to be productive so far. Nogrod I'm shocked at you. This is a new side that I haven't seen. Not that it isn't a nice side but its different.

So we have 4 wolves, two gifteds and a secret role. Unless the secret role is a seer we don't have one of those. Our gifteds can talk though so they know each other which will give us known innocents later in the game. We've had a lot of early reveals without reason lately and I don't really recommend this. Voting toDay is necessary so someone will be lynched. We don't want to loose a gifted to day One lynching either so that would be the only real reason I can see for revealing.

I'll be around tonight and a few hours before deadline but I have class when deadline is so I won't be around then.

Nothing but restating rules...

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ahhkk I have 5 minutes before work but I'll be on later.

I agree with Mac about Boro. He was just stating something and then when everyone jumped on it he defended the statement.

I see the Nog I know and love coming back.

Lommy is suspecting me for absolutely no reason... this seems vaguely familiar .... I'm going to do my best not to suspect you out of pure retaliation right now.

No one else stands out to me.

Edit: Crossed w/ Morsul

Not really anything... says she won't suspect Lomy out of retaliation

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok so I'm super sorry I haven't been around till now. I was working. I'll be on till deadline though I don't know how much help I can be. Lommy is feeling the worst to me so far. Her posts haven't been helpful but I know she is coming on the computer so I'll giver her a slight chance. I don't think that Mnemo is looking all that suspicious. Nog and Roa are probably both innocents. I don't know what to do with Mac or Boro but I probably won't be voting for either of them. I also won't be voting Morsul. Edit: Crossed with a host

Lommy looks worst won't vote for me....

Originally Posted by Nienna

I would also prefer Zil over Mnemo or Mac.

Agrees with Mac odd coupling...

++Zil

votes zil instead of Lommy despite Lommy looks worse

Originally Posted by Nienna

I wasn't sure at the time if I was just suspecting her because she suspected me. It was also near deadline and I didn't want Mac or Mnemo to be lynched so I was willing to use my vote to trying to save them as apposed to wasting my vote when I could have made a difference.
Morsul tends to be voted Day Ones because of his playing style and I didn't want to contribute to that.
Edit: Crossed with Morsul.

Two things... voted to save someone instead of going with what she thinks is right... and doesn't vote me based on Metareasons(Which are invalid I've played two games and survived a decent amount of time in one...) but she's the anti Meta Reason person

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'm here. People who feel a little off to me: Lommy, Shasta, and Nerwen. I shall now commece analyzing them. I'm sorry if others have done so/ are planning on doing so but it only really helps me if I analyze them myself as people can spin their analysis any way they choose depending on their role. I'm sure you understand.

We do understand...we also understand You could slant an analysis your own way...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nerwen, should I take my sudden Sallyosity as a compliment or an insult?

Well, that's up to you isn't it?

Anyway, I can't leave this any longer, so–

++Mnemosyne

Reasons already stated.

I will add that I'm not really sure about this; she 's being kind of weird, but I'm not sure if it's wolfishly weird... but if I start second-guessing myself I'm be here all Day– and Lottie hasn't had a chance to explain her vote yet at all.

Good night.

EDIT:X'd with Mac and Morsul.

[Boromir88]

I've got to vote within the next 2 hours, and I'm so behind on everything...urrg this always seems to happen.

Boro is seeming too brash and sure of himself, giving off a odd vibe. I don't know I can call it a wolfish vibe just yet though. He's mostly made sense I guess, which by his own reasoning means he should be lynched, right?~Inzil

Well I'm sure of who I am, but read post 271...that hardly looks like I'm sure of anything at the moment. Mac is all but tempting me to re-think everything on him and as far as who to vote for I have absolutely no idea, with not much time to figure it out.

Possibly Shasta or Greenie, I don't like the way they both jumped on Morsul's comments about placing less faith in votes. As well as both jumping on Nogrod going after Roa's slip.

Possibly Eomer for the fact that I forget he's back and playing.

Possibly you, Inzil, because I was going to vote for you yesterday, and today you haven't convinced me that I shouldn't.

Yep, that's about it right now. So, will catch up on all the reading and be around for the next 2 hours, then vote.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

We do understand...we also understand You could slant an analysis your own way...

Yes, dear, but my analysis isn't for you all... it's for me. If others get helpful information out of it about me or the person I'm analyzing than good... if not then they should do their own analysis. I was just stating why I was doing an analysis of people who have already been looked at.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*sighs*

One more time, Boro, and let's see if I can't get it through that delightfully thick skull of yours - I did not jump on Morsul for his comment about votes. I jumped on him for using far too many ellipsi and qualifiers in his paragraph. So there, nyah, .

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

*sighs*

One more time, Boro, and let's see if I can't get it through that delightfully thick skull of yours - I did not jump on Morsul for his comment about votes. I jumped on him for using far too many ellipsi and qualifiers in his paragraph. So there, nyah, .

Well I fail at thoroughly reading everything, so it's highly possible I missed you saying that earlier. Most of the time, to be honest, I find myself scrolling through the page looking for a bolded "Boro" and then respond or not. I don't do the serious analysis until after the fact, when I have the time to actually go through it all.

[Nienna]

Lommy

YesterDay:

58. List: suspects me for making captain obvious statements and starting the ‘lets not lynch the gifteds’ movement. Also vaugly suspects Nog (for weirdness) and Pitch (for maybe being too agreeable) and Mnemo (for captain obvious statements and continuing the ‘lets not lynch the gifteds’ movement…)

So her list was a bit weird. There wasn’t a whole lot of posting to list about. She did make some interesting notes but I believe her suspicion of me is unwarranted and looks quite suspicious in return. I had posted once so far when she posted this. I gave the first non-banter post and even if she thinks it is a Captain Obvious post I thought it was important. I’m very much a teacher in everything that I do and since there are people who haven’t played before I think that making these statements are important. Even for people who have played before it is sometimes important to be reminded of somethings. It is sort of a “Hey kids remember what happened last time? Lets try to not do that again. Kthanks.” And this is true especially with the gifteds revealing. Sorry if you think it is pointless but I do not. /rant.

85. Worried about a Nog/Roa collaboration

This is obviously not pertinent any more. Though it looks sort of like a wolf trying to cast suspicion around.

95. Thinks Nog/Roa are fellows, thinks their attack seems rather fabricated.

I can’t see where she is coming from at all. Their attack seemed very innocent on innocent to me. An innocent Nog found something to latch onto and an innocent Roa defended herself to the T. This seems very typical for both players involved which I would expect you to know.

151. Mentions she would push the Nog/Roa situation if she was a wolf (as she is doing) but she says she would also think it odd as an innocent, thinks their petty fight doesn’t actually seems suspicious and thus doesn’t warrant her vote, could vote Me or Mnemo but we haven’t done much to merit it either, could vote Eomer just because he would like it.

She totally flips in this post. She says in 95 that she thinks Nog and Roa are fellows but then when she is challenged that she might be a wolf casting this suspicion on them she totally flips and says she would also do this as an innocent and now that she thinks about it that maybe they aren’t really wolves.

157. Eomer’s vote for Mnemo makes her hesitant to vote for her and start a bandwagon and she’s not sure that Mnemo deserves a bandwagon, doesn’t know why Nog seems so desperate, still suspects me… maybe even more now that I suspect her though she believes her suspicion of me is justified but not my suspicion of her

This post confused me. She says that she now doesn’t want to vote for Mnemo but I’m not sure where she ever wanted to vote for her. Then she also makes a very complicated mess out of her suspicion of me, which she thinks is justified because she doesn’t suspect the others who have suspected her. /confusion.

163. A vote for me seems throwaway, debating between Nog or Mnemo.

She is now back to wanting to lynch Nog? He had no votes at the time so I don’t know how a vote for him wouldn’t have been a throwaway but for me would have been.

164. Thinks that Mac’s latest post doesn’t necessarily say ‘innocent’ to her.

168. Votes Mnemo

ToDay:

273. Thinks Shasta and I look bad after the voting, Nog was way over the top with the Roa thing, Mnemo is odd, wonders about Pitchie, not sure what to make of Lottie’s vote for her, list.

In summary: She is being wishy/washy with her suspicions and it seems like trying very hard to not look like a wolf. This definitely reads wolfish to me.

x-ed.

[Inziladun]

Well, the local weather is not as bad as it might be. Based upon barometric, thermometric, and cloud observations, I don't think we'll see any precipitation for the next few days. However, with the destruction caused to our electronics, I no longer have access to radar and satellite information. As many of you are no doubt aware, temperature variations in this area can be considerable, due to low-presssure cyclonic activity moving in from the North Atlantic. It is most important that power to the ship be maintained.
Now, to the business that troubles us most. While I am a servant of empiricism by trade, my mind has always been rather imaginative. Certainly it seems the disppearance of the captain, and subsequent murder of the one best equipped to aid us in returning to habitable lands, are related. Why? I don't believe in such coincidences. But why would one of our own, whose fate is bound with ours at this juncture, wish to commit such acts? Could there be any explanation or motive that does not involve one of us?