TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

All y'all shouldn't forget the easiest explanation for my bonding with Lari at the end of day: she had a pretty solid point. (Clearly I wasn't bonding with her because we were lovers or packmates.)

I had already floated the theory that Borangutan might have killed Hakon for less than Seer-ly reasons. The longer I play, and the more I look at Hack's posts, the less convinced I am that he dreamed of anybody he listed.

However (and here's where it changed): I know my role. And I know Hakon's logic. (Sorry mods) He was playing meta even though it was forbidden. Meta reasoning for who my own personal Stick would make her own personal Crazy Bear for her own personal Amusement? If I was using Hakon's against-the-rules logic, I'd have dreamed of myself first.

Hakon's list of people are ones closest to the mod. And I'm the most visible/notorious of those in that category.

And while at first I was thinking maybe Borangutan was sensitive to Hakon's hints, that doesn't really matter either way, because evil people are hyper-sensitive to criticism and suspicion.

I'm thinking now that Hakon's dreams were supposed to go in the order he listed even though they were preemptively ended.

And upon learning that I number amongst the innocents, there was no need for him to throw himself under any buses to ensure my destruction.

Hence his vagaries.

"Don't think of the bear right away" might have corresponded with my name coming first on the list, but that might be stretching it too far. But it is possible that his insistence that we not look for the bear right away correlated with the fact that I was the name one saw on his list right away, and that you shouldn't look at me when aiming for evil.

Then again, he might have just been nattering and it didn't mean anything.

There's always that.

[Inziladun]

Pretty slow toDay, really. No doubt it'll be followed by a frantic hour or two before DL.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

"Don't think of the bear right away" might have corresponded with my name coming first on the list, but that might be stretching it too far. But it is possible that his insistence that we not look for the bear right away correlated with the fact that I was the name one saw on his list right away, and that you shouldn't look at me when aiming for evil.

Then again, he might have just been nattering and it didn't mean anything.

If Hakon had meant us to use the order of the names to correlate with the statement about not worrying about the bear, I have to think he would at least have put those two elements in one post, not two. Try as I might, I can't find any significance in those posts of Hakon's that could lead to conclusions about his one dream. Let's take a look at them again.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

That looks to me as if he was saying 'Let's not argue about the bear helping against the wolves-it's up to the seer to find xim'. The plea to the seer was likely a simple ploy to point the baddies away from him as a seer candiate. Obviously, if that was the case he was unuccessful.

Then, as mentioned, he uses meta-reasoning to say who the bear could be. I edited out the first bit.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Again, meta-reasoning. And Bearomir could have seen that and thought it might be better to go after Hakon early, just on the off chance there was something else behind his words. But, as I think others have said, if he had dreamed Fea or Sally and knew one of their roles, why would he have put them in as possible bears?
That's all I really see there. I'm sure we'll be enlightened post-game, but for now we're left to work things out on our own.
I think any attempt to use that to point to one's innocence is a major reach, and I can only see furry intentions behind it, whether one tries to qualify it or not.
Then again, Lari thought there could be something to it, and she obviously was not evil.
Regardless, I'm leaning toward another vote for Fea toDay.

[Nienna]

Dear Village,

POST PLEASE.

Love, Me.

[Mirandir]

Dear Village,

I second Nienna. Kthx.

Love, me

[Nogrod]

I thought I was the only one not around and thought I should post first to say I'm around again but it seems it has been a real quiet Day indeed...

I'll go into reading.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ok, I'm here and catching up.

[McCaber]

I'm here too, by coincidence.

[Roa_Aoife]

To start: no, Fea. If Hakon had dreamed of you and found you innocent, he would not have listed you as a possible bad guy. He would have left you out of a bad guy list. He would have tried to hint at your innocence. And the same reasoning that says he would dream you also applies to Boromir. The fact the your insisting on this makes you look far worse to me.

To continue: Having seriously considered the death of Lari, I have an idea. You see, we are hunting wolves, so when we see a villager over-react to suspicion, we think wolf. The wolves, however, are hunting something else all together, and there is another reason a villager may over-react to suspicion. I believe the wolves thought Lari was the ranger. Which means they chose killing her rather than let her live and gamble on lynching her.

To finish: where is everyone? We can't afford to lose to quietness. Those people who haven't shown up yet really need to participate. I'll be around for maybe another hour and a half, and then I have to go.

[Nogrod]

The end of Day2 was odd indeed...

As I read through those final hours last night I was quite convinced they were both wolves: Lari panicking against the suspicions but also offering this odd theory about Hakon's dreams to make Fea innocent and then Fea running to the stage in the end...

But Lari was innocent.

What Nerwen said about the POV of the wolves actually makes the situation even more confusing. The kill seems to point to Fea and the question remains whether that is bold bluffing (Fea is a wolf) or a set-up by the wolves (Fea is innocent). I would say it'd be a set-up by the wolves, but Fea's insistence on speculating about Hakon's dreams yet toDay makes me kind of worried. Like Inzil said: any attempt to use Hakon's possible dreams to point to one's innocence is a major reach...

I mean I was already baffled on the postings of yesterDay as to why people mulled over whether Hakon had revealed someone's innocence as it quite clearly was not the case?

Let me quote the famous first post once again - but look at the bolding this time.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

So why use capital letters there? It's so out of the normal... I don't believe he just tried to say "let's concentrate on more important issues" or something like that. He said it plain and clear that we should not use our time looking at the bear (for he had the answer to that question?). And I can see Boro noticing that - and after finding himself in the shortlist of three - making sure Hakon would not live to tell any more.

It looks like a very solid tactics from the seer with no major concern on his life on Day1; hinting we should look at other problems, casting the name out in the open but not in a too obvious fashion (like mentioning only Boro).

But how does one turn that and the other "infamous statement":

Originally Posted by Hakon

Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

into a "revealment" on anyone's innocence?

[Nogrod]

McCaber: As you seem to be around, why don't you share your thoughts on people as I don't quite remember you saying too much in this game thus far?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Nog, I never said that Hakon conclusively said anything about anybody's innocence. Because he didn't conclusively say anything at all except that he was using forbidden logic.

That being said, he definitely dreamed of somebody, and since I don't think he dreamed of Boro, that leaves me to wonder who he did dream of. If he didn't dream of Boro, then the logical conclusion is that he dreamed of one of the other people he mentioned. Hence, maybe he dreamed of me, maybe he didn't.

This really has been a dead day... I was gone for hours and was expecting a slew of posts upon my return. Apparently I expected wrong.

Let me think for a bit and I'll get back to everyone.