TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Roa

Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.

Same here. To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with.
Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.

(x-ed with Roa. Fair enough, but my sex hasn't changed since last time. That damned nick...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Catching up ...

Originally Posted by MiraModdess

*is officially taking death requests*

Well, it's not Poe, but if I have to go, I would rather like to go like the Kenneth Williams character in Carry on Screaming. Frying Tonight!

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What's going on between Roa and SpM at the moment looks like a classical suspicion match between two active innocents to me. Nice TV for the wolves.

Quite possibly. My reasons for suspecting Roa basically revolve around her aggressive approach, particularly her early accusations of Nerwen and me based on what I regard as rather flimsy evidence. It might be said that a Wolf would not risk drawing attention to herself by acting so aggressively, especially on Day 1. Problem is that Roa always acts that way, whether Wolf or Innocent. As I said, I'm reserving judgment for now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?

Pur-lease. As both Roa and Pitch have pointed out, if it was a ruse, it was a bad one. Credit me with a bit more nouse, please.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now if I would have to make a quess now on who's the Bear, I would say Greenie is. The way she talks about the Bear all the time ("no Bear would talk of her own role that much") would be just fine for a Bear.

I don't get this at all. Everyone has been talking about the Bear to some degree or other. Which is hardly surprising, given that the Bear is a relatively rare feature of WW games. And, given that Greenie was simply saying that we should not concentrate on the Bear but not forget him either, you seem rather to be over-emphasising the import of her words in this regard. I see nothing especially 'Bearish' in what Greenie has said, as distinct from anyone else who has discussed the subject.

Is it me, or is Noggie acting uncharacteristically aggressively? Perhaps he has changed his style since days of yore, but I always thought that he was more measured, at the outset at least. The again, the same point applies as I made above. Would a Wolf act so 'in your face' right from the outset on Day 1?

I'm glad to see that Boro, at least, caught my drift concerning the dynamics between the Bear and the Wolves. I pretty much agree with all that he says. It's not a case of trying to get one or t'other of them on our side or relying on them to side with us, but rather pointing out, so that they are clear, what it is their best interests to do.

[Morsul the Dark]

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok For people who think the fact that saucey was a wolf last time has nothing to do with this time because both were random picks... While technically true there is the statistics...

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

Obviously Just because of that math we shouldn't leave him alone.... Green seems absorbed by the bear but still not really enough for me to vote...

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....

SPM++

[Morsul the Dark]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

And yet you vote for me for thinking the same.

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.

[Morsul the Dark]

And yet you vote for me for thinking the same.

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.

Actually I'm saying we were confused by the math(due to the seven vs. six ordo error)

But you threw in this "Good Wolf" idea and created more confusion, so yes you are my top suspect. I fell for Your ruse or "confusion" but I think until you said the good wolf thing we all knew what was actually meant You placed that seed of doubt..

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

Fair enough, I was also going to say, about you this is my first game with you...and I believe your second? I didn't read the last game, so I have no idea about your style, but wanted to get a response from you first before sharing that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

SPM, flimsy is saying that I made up being confused about the number of wolves.

Circumstantial, maybe. But relevant nevertheless and, I think, a reasonable basis for an early Day 1 suspicion when combined with the other points that I raised. You did seem rather keen to claim that you had thought there only to be three Wolves.

Originally Posted by Roa

You see the flaw in your reasoning? Just because someone else jumps onto what I'm saying doesn't mean that was my intention.

Eh? My suspicions, such as they are, are not based on anything that anyone else has said. They are based purely on what you have said. You appear to be trying to misrepresent the nature of my case against you here.

Originally Posted by Roa

I found Nerwen more suspicious than you until you become over-defensive about the whole thing.

Well, given that my misunderstanding about the 'friendly Wolf' appears to have given rise to no small amount of suspicion and now one vote, I hardly think that I am being overly-defensive. I am merely trying to point out the ludicrous nature of the basis for such suspicion. Still, if you were trying to sow the seeds of doubt against me back there, it seems to have paid off.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am going to have to vote soon.

I agree that Hakon's reasoning is wrong-headed and is unhelpful to the Village. But it is hardly a basis to vote for him, at this stage at least.

Much as Roa's stubborn obtuseness and unwillingness to see the problems with her own reasoning is frustrating, I am not going to vote for her toDay, tempting though it is to do so. The 'clash of Innocents' that Pitch referred to is something that I am definately wary of.

I have a vague feeling of unease about Pitch. He just seems to be sitting on the sidelines appearing reasonable but stirring the pot every now and then. Nothing strong enough to merit a vote for him at this stage, but one to watch I think.

Some suspicion of Nogrod, based on his early aggression, but again not enough to vote for him toDay.

My main concern now is Morsul. Not just because he voted for me, but because he has picked up on this the (frankly ludcrous, as I have pointed out) argument that others, most notably Roa, have made and used it to justify his vote.

Of the others, I have not really formed much of a view so far.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....t]

Meaning I felt e was trying to confuse us... Note te first sentence I had nearly zero suspicion meaning I voted for SPM based on the fact he was the most suspicious of not suspicious people if I didn't have to vote I would've abstained because no one(At the point of that post) jumped out at me.

Does tat clear up my reasoning for anyone?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

Firstly, SPM reacted to my pretty mild suspicion with a disproportionate amount of force, and then brought really circumstantial evidence (my misunderstanding being a "ruse") and a misrepresentation of the reason I suspected Nerwen against me. Maybe he just looking for someone to suspect, or maybe he's upset that I pointed out a possible ruse.

Oh for goodness sake, I am not having this. I think that it was perfectly reasonale to point out that your jumping on my misunderstanding looked suspicious, as it did to me. And the fact that you subsequently retracted made no difference. The mischief was in sowing the seed of doubt, as evidenced by the fact that Brinniel and others picked up on it, and the fact that we are still discussing the issue now.

I reall am rather miffed at being suspected on the basis of something that would have involved an improbable amount of foresight (to spot the opportunity) combined with an equal measure of stupidity (for thinking that it might work).

And you call my case against you circumstantial, Roa? That's quite something, given the flimsiness of your case against Nerwen, and now me. I think that it is you who is looking for someone to suspect.

But, as you have said, it is Day 1 and we are all looking for someone to suspect based on what we have, such as it is.

[Roa_Aoife]

Morsul's vote looks like it came out of left field.


SPM, flimsy is saying that I made up being confused about the number of wolves. That is completely circumstantial. You used that to feed into the idea that my case against Nerwen is weak, which I clearly admitted it was. I have one point, it's that she jumped onto something you said to Inzil, which could also be construed as you sowing a seed of doubt against him, which clearly worked because Nerwen went with it.

You see the flaw in your reasoning? Just because someone else jumps onto what I'm saying doesn't mean that was my intention. The people jumping on are more suspicious, because it's easier for a wolf to nudge on an already present suspicion than to start one of their own. I found Nerwen more suspicious than you until you become over-defensive about the whole thing.

edit: crossed with Morsul down, and I have to go to dinner, but I'll be back.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

The mischief was in sowing the seed of doubt, as evidenced by the fact that Brinniel and others picked up on it, and the fact that we are still discussing the issue now.

Well, given that my misunderstanding about the 'friendly Wolf' appears to have given rise to no small amount of suspicion and now one vote, I hardly think that I am being overly-defensive. I am merely trying to point out the ludicrous nature of the basis for such suspicion. Still, if you were trying to sow the seeds of doubt against me back there, it seems to have paid off.

You are using the fact that other people suspect you as evidence for me intentionally sowing seeds of doubt. Morsul's vote has nothing to do with me- you're just blaming me for it. You're basically saying that the only reason people suspect you is because of me, and not because you actually did anything suspicious.

And there is nothing reasonable about declaring that I was trying to fool everyone by my confusion when you insist that you could not possibly have been doing just that. The first time I stated it was to clarify the numbers which were in debate at the moment, and the second time was to state why your confusion wasn't terribly suspicious because I was confused as well. You jumped on it and ran with it, well before anyone else had mentioned it, so while your over defensiveness may be justified now, it certainly wasn't then.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I don't like some buddying-ups around here and I find some rows somewhat fabricated.

Both these classes include Spm...

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught?

But I will not vote for him as that is not enough to serve as a basis for a vote on Day1. But not knowing the future one needs to lay open his two cents.


That leaves me torn between two options.

Trying the odds with a submarine (which I would then call you others to vote as well) as the chances are best they ever can be in this game looking at the unhappy ratio we have.

Going against my conscience & will and voting for Greenie who I suspected and who retaliated like she just tried to get out of that with the "retaliatory move".

A short thought and then vote.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught ...

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie? First Greenie and now me. Since when does a passing mention in a single post constitute praising someone "so many times"?

I need to vote and I am probably going to vote for Morsul for picking up on others' specious reasoning and using it to justify his vote. But first I need to go and work out how to do this highlighting of votes ...

[Roa_Aoife]

I may be off and on for the rest of the Day, but I can't guarantee it, so I'm going to vote now.

++SPM

For being overly defensive, claiming that he wasn't suspecting me for other people's action but continuously bringing up the idea that I was sowing seeds of doubt, and now this whole "but we're probably two innocents duking it out" looks like he's trying to backpedal after Pitch pointed out the possibility.

[Loslote]

I'm here. Reading...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught?

Sometimes it's necessary to state the obvious.

Also when you get multiple people all discussing one topic that means statistically there's probably some villainy involved, which then gives us info to read through. I'm not saying we continue to rehash this same argument the next day and the next, but it's a good question to consider on Day 1, and seeing as many responded to it there's lots to look at.

The same goes for whether early posters are anxious wolves, or the entire confusion over the # of wolves and the good wolf...multiple people commented, now use it to try and find the most suspicious.

Edit: crossed with Sauce and Fea...ooh I better check to see if that DVRed or my roommate will kill me.

[The Saucepan Man]

++Morsul the Dark

... for reasons previously stated.

Adios amigos.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Spm

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie?

Oops... sorry guys...

Have you seen me not exaggerating things in ww - or elsewhere?

But to be honest you seem to be underplaying the thing saying it was a "passing mention"... how nicely phrased.


But with no good-enough candidate on Day1...

I have an impression of these people because of what they have posted / that they have posted substantially enough to give hints about what they think - or wish us to think.

Boro
Fea
Greenie
Hakon
Morsul
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Roa
Saucepan Man

So I can foresee I - or anyone else - is able to read them as the Days go by. And the more Days pass the easier it becomes (which is not to say it will become easy).

These people I have no idea about... (number of their posts after their names)

Brinn -1 (no idea but reasonable - points on Roa and Spm)
Inzil - 6 (what a failing on my side; this many posts and no idea)
Lari - 1 (no idea indeed)
Loslote 0 (where is she?)
McCaber -1 (was too keen to be nice to me, suspicious)
sally - 2 (I didn't like her two posts: showing a knowledgeable face but no input ehatsoever, trying to look nice, suspicious)
wilwa - 3 (no idea, but tend to think her readable later on)

Some may start posting in a Day or two - or even toDay. A tough call.

(I see what you people say about Morsul and even if I kind of agree with you I can see lynching him as an "easy way" as well)

But still looking at the numbers there should be at least two baddies in the latter department.

[Nogrod]

Which one is the worst?

Self-consciously joking - with only two posts but overdoing it trying to look light = Sally

Buddying up - even with time constraints only saying two people are good (me and Fea) = McCaber

Ignoring the game but posting - posting once saying "I'm here" and "pineapple". = Lari

Not showing at all - an innocent and not interested or shying away big time? = Lottie


I'll go with

++ McCaber

He looks the worst to me.


EDIT: X'd with Roa & Lottie

[Nienna]

Nienna's ghost floats in, materializes, and starts yelling.

NO META GAME.

She then looks over her glasses disapprovingly, vaporizes, and floats away.

[Loslote]

Okay, sorry. The Internet broke down and we only just got it back now. But I should be here until deadline? Hope so...

So far, Morsul looks most suspicious. His logic has left me confused while I try to figure out what he could possibly mean, and then trying to figure out where he got it.

Hakon used meta-game reasoning. Ugh. Annoying. Moving on...

I don't think SPAM is Were. He seems genuine to me, but, of course, I could be wrong.

I haven't gotten read on Roa. I'll look at her soon.

I'll look at everyone else now...those are just the ones I've noticed so far in my admittedly quick read-through.

EDIT: xed with Nienna

[Inziladun]

Hmm. I had been seriously considering going for SPM toDay. I don't have great deal on him; mainly I thought his responses to Roa looked somewhat overblown at times.
I didn't much like Morsul's vote for him, though. That was completely out of left field to me, and it seemed, from what I can tell, to be entirely based on Nog saying SPM was a likely cobbler. Now Roa has followed suit. Her vote, at least, wasn't exactly a surprise.
McCaber I would certainly like to see more of. I know he can be a very accomplished submarine, and he's had an uncanny ability in the past to totally slip by me. I think he bears watching, but I don't see why I should vote for him just yet.
Pitch's vote for Boro came across as rather forced, and a way to avoid being associated with a band-wagon. Granted, Boro's comment about Sally being the most suspicious was a bit weak, but how was Pitch's justification for Boro any better?
Hakon is not worth a vote just yet, but if he insists on keeping up the meta-gaming, I may have to agree with the others that he ought to be lynched just for causing unnecessary confusion.
And Morsul? Again, his vote for SPM feels foul.

x/d with Loslote
Time to ruminate for a bit.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Pitch's vote for Boro came across as rather forced, and a way to avoid being associated with a band-wagon. Granted, Boro's comment about Sally being the most suspicious was a bit weak, but how was Pitch's justification for Boro any better?

I meant out of all those who discussed the "early posters" that sally was the most suspicious of the bunch. Based on her stating she wanted to avoid the early posters are suspicious crap, but still being an early poster and saying nothing. I'm not making much of Pitch's vote, I will ask though, when does someone joking automatically mean we should ignore it and not find it suspicious? Are you not familiar with the evil jesters?

And if anyone is the most suspicious to me it is Morsul...although I'm wary about the people popping out to say the same. His vote seemed sudden and non-chalant, but how would a wolf-Morsul benefit by voting for an innocent-SpM? I mean if he was throwing a vote out of the blue...unless he was trying to cash-in on the Roa and Sauce battle.

I also have an unexplainable suspicious feeling towards Nogrod. I've only scanned the posts past #55, but his suspicions against Greenie make me wary. I've read Greenie horribly wrong before, but by Nogrod pointing out he's usually suspicious of Greenie, so maybe we should take it as a "pinch of salt" looks safe. Like he has picked someone he usually suspects and tells us we shouldn't think to0 much about it. I haven't read through his posts on Sauce and Roa yet.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife about Hakon

To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with. Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.

And this is the general dilemma of WW...

On the surface I do wholly agree with you two with the fact that the way Hakon plays looks like worthy of a lynch-vote.

On a second thought it looks like Pitchie is right: Going after Hakon for that reason would be just the way the wolves would like to do: easy and non-controversial...

But with a third glance on it, what Pitch says would be just what an intelligent wolf would say to make those suspecting his possible mate to look suspicious... Especially if Hakon's mates had been advicing him to go on with that same style...

EDIT: X'd with the latest few...