Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Lariren Shadow]

And some Lovecraft quotes:

But are not the dreams of poets and the tales of travellers notoriously false?

In London there is a man who screams when the church bells ring.

But more wonderful than the lore of old men and the lore of books is the secret lore of ocean.

Very sleek and fat did the cats appear, and sonorous with purring content.

[Morsul the Dark]

Jus wante to say I'm back! Sorry about all that unexpected problems with the internet been chewing my nails off wondering about WW ALOT of catching up o do and Congrats to Lari

EDIT:Spelling

[Morsul the Dark]

Well then I Could try to fight back Lari Suspicion but as we know that's impossible now So

++Lari

again sorry I diappeared Our internet is by usage and we went over because of an unexpected download so to avoid extra charges...

[Nerwen]

Lari on the unknown players (Day 1)
Together with a selection of things people said about her

#10.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I do agree with Wilwa about possibly being optimistic and that maybe we can get a wolf on Day 1!

That's just opening banter.

#70.
Replying to The Saucepan Wolf.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

• Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man
  On a more serious note, I am expecting everyone to play their full part toDay (and, indeed, every Day). When it comes to voting, we won’t have a lot to go on. But we’ll have even less if people don’t speak up, play their part, make their opinions known. I hereby give warning that I shall not take kindly to those who seek to hide in the quiet shadows of the thread.

This strikes me. I know in context it could be "play our parts as good villagers and find the wolves" but at the same time I took it as a sort of signal. Like the Agent to his wolves.

Classic suspect-your-mate-of-cobblery move.

Then she makes a list.
#71

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Inzil: Doesn't set off any alarms.

Pitchwife: Seems innocent to me.

Loslote: Not newbie right? Interesting comment about distracting narratives...maybe sniffing out wolves? Or not. Needs watching.

Hakon: The comment about SPM, now that I realize taken in with his, could be signaling to each other. Not good. Don't have a good feeling about him at all.

Wilwa: She has good points and is optimistic, we should keep her around.

Nog: Seems like typical Nog. I have no idea if that means he's innocent or guilty.

SPM: Needs watching. I find him suspicious for reasons in my last post. Not saying should go after toDay, but he does deserve watching.

Roa: Seems pretty innocent.

Crayon: Newbie. Newbie pass.

Nienna: Pretty innocent looking.

Nerwen: No read.

Legate: Not setting off any alarms.

Greenie: Interesting things to say, not suspicious.

Morsul: Newbie to werewolf? Gets newbie pass.

Kitanna: Nothing much at all.

Brinn: Thinks everyone is a wolf. Paranoid, needs watching.

So, these are the people she had a definite opinion about:

Pitchwife (Seer). Positive.
Loslote (ordo). Mildly negative.
Hakon (Ranger). Negative.
Wilwa (unknown). Highly positive.
SPM (werewolf). Mildly negative.
Roa (unknown). Mildly positive.
Brinn (unknown). Negative.

Meh... looks like the usual carefully-spread "suspicions'. The comment on Wilwa is interesting, though (see Nogrod's take below)

#72

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for Lari, I actually don't see anything suspicious about her, and seems actually quite good to me (even with that SpM comment, which is something I can see as reasonable, not saying that I agree with it, but I can see an innocent posting that).

#74.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow the way how Lari makes her comment on wilwa strikes me: It may be that she just wished to express herself differently (there are many of whom she says only "seems innocent" or "pretty innocent looking" etc.). But of wilwa she says that we should keep her around with actual backing / arguments for why she thinks so. And I think there had been some suspicions raised on wilwa, so that would fit "nicely" ...

[He reiterates this point at #88.]

#79

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I am currently wary of Pitchwife, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen

We now know The Saucepan Wolf mentioned one known wolf in there, and (from my point of view) two known innocents. Would he have thrown a second wolf (i.e. Zil) into the mix?

[Replying to Nogrod at #74]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I really only meant to change up what I was saying. I did my list from the bottom up, got tired of saying "seems innocent" and decided to go with a different spin.

#114.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I'm...slightly weary of Pitch's reveal. While he probably was in fear of getting lynched if we still had the tie between the two votes Inzil would be gone. It just doesn't feel that right to me.

Blah, I'm up early and hungry.

Considering I was thinking of voting SPM toDay anyway I might. But I was also thinking of voting Hakon.

At this point she is trying to cast suspicion on Inzil, but I don't think it look like wolf-on-wolf– her aim here is to cast doubt on Pitch.

She then votes The Saucepan Wolf.

So, for Day One, it looks like the living player most likely to be Lari's fellow is– what a surprise!– Wilwa.

I will note that Legate was positive about Lari, however.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

does not look much like the work of an ordo intent on saving the Ranger to me.

I said that knowing there was no way you guys would kill him that day, cause no one would want to risk killing the real ranger that early. But if I had come on and said "I'm the real Ranger, but please don't hurt the fake one" I doubt anyone would have believed me. I was pretending, but I wouldn't have let him get lynched.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

Yeah, you bluffed him into protection the third night because you were still alive. If I hadn't of bluffed, you would have died night two, and Pitch the following night. The only dream we would have gotten would have been of Greenie, but now we have 2 more dreams. So yes, I definitely helped you out a lot.

You guys really think I'm that dumb of a wolf?

[Morsul the Dark]

Wilwa, lulling the village into false security?

By the way are the cursed and changed the same or different?

Nerwen said I could only change sides if "Cused" then laer I think... it was Brinn? said she was a changed...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I said that knowing there was no way you guys would kill him that day, cause no one would want to risk killing the real ranger that early. But if I had come on and said "I'm the real Ranger, but please don't hurt the fake one" I doubt anyone would have believed me. I was pretending, but I wouldn't have let him get lynched.

*shrugs* Says you.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Yeah, you bluffed him into protection the third night because you were still alive. If I hadn't of bluffed, you would have died night two, and Pitch the following night. The only dream we would have gotten would have been of Greenie, but now we have 2 more dreams. So yes, I definitely helped you out a lot.

Ah, but did you want to? That's the question.

Look, Wilwa, I am even now going through the last two Days, to see if I can find a link between Lari and anyone else, just in case– as I said– you turn out to be innocent. If this really was a noble sacrifice on your part, surely you knew you would get lynched eventually?

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Wilwa, lulling the village into false security?

By the way are the cursed and changed the same or different?

Nerwen said I could only change sides if "Cused" then laer I think... it was Brinn? said she was a changed...

The "Cursed" or "Cursed Villager" is an ordinary villager who, if picked by the wolves at Night, doesn't die but instead becomes a wolf himself. There isn't one in this game. In fact I think the last game with a Cursed in it was about a year ago.

The "Changed" is what McCaber is calling the Hunter in this game, just to make it seem more like the story.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The "Cursed" or "Cursed Villager" is an ordinary villager who, if picked by the wolves at Night, doesn't die but instead becomes a wolf himself. There isn't one in this game. In fact I think the last game with a Cursed in it was about a year ago.

I seem to remember Wilwa's game with Little Red Cap.

Anyway, I'm looking at Legate and Nerwen's votes for Lari yesterDay. Brinn and Loslote were tied; then Legate gave the first vote for Lari. He'd done some analysis on her, and his vote couldn't really be said to be out of left field. Now, there were still Nog and Nerwen to vote, so there was a very real possibility Lari could have been lynched. Nog then went with Loslote, with Nerwen following up with Lari. Nerwen had said she was thinking of voting Lari, based on Lari's comment about Brinn being a 'fed up innocent'.
Legate, I think, looks pretty good. Nerwen is less certain, though she did point out that possible slip of Lari's.

[Roa_Aoife]

Wilwa must be the last wolf, and here's why:

The wolves naturally want to kill the biggest threat to them, which is the seer. When the seer is revealed, they cannot accurately target the seer, because the ranger is in the way. If we have two revealed rangers, neither is a wolf, and neither is the Agent (Morsul removed that possibility for us), then the wolves have two targets and no reason to leave either alive: If they kill one, then the village would naturally lynch the other, and they could happily kill the seer.

Furthermore, if the wolves believed that Wilwa was the ranger, then there was no call to attack Pitch last night, as Wilwa clearly stated that she would be protecting him. The wolves would only risk losing the kill in a village of this size if they were certain that Pitch would NOT be protected. For that to happen, they would have to believe that Hakon was telling the truth about his protection. This also explains why they didn't kill the seer before- they believed that the real ranger Hakon would be protecting him.

It seems to me that they realized the charade couldn't go on, and decided to kill the seer before he could bring any more known innocents to light, or worse (for them) find a wolf. Wilwa was a gonner anyways, but had Lari not been found out, she may have been able to stave off the suspicion of her for some time- at least until the knowns were out of the way.

[Nerwen]

Lari on the unknown players (Day 2)
Together with a selection of things people said about her

#129.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

And SPM was a wolf. Seems to confirm Pitch.

#145.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Among those who voted after said reveal, Lari is the only one who had voiced suspicion of SpM earlier and, as Kit points out, might have voted him anyway. Looks good as well.

#149.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for Lari's interaction with SpM (especially such as on the second page), well, I must say I was slightly suspicious of Lari by the end of yesterDay, after looking at SpM's posts, but on the other hand, orchestrating a Wolf-on-Wolf suspicion on such a weird comment, like saying that SpM is an Agent... unless it would be a deliberate way of creating a "shield" to defend SpM in the future (the Wolves could then say "hey yes, he is suspicious, but he's likely just an Agent, so let's not waste a lynch on him"). But for some reason that sounds to me quite too much complicated plan, which I don't think the Wolves would pull so soon.

I don't know why Legate says this, as it's common enough for wolves to pose as cobblers. Otherwise, I don't see anything wrong with this post.

#172.
[from long analysis of Nogrod.]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

The whole Lari thing- he says that he “thinks” some suspicions had been raised against Wilwa, when he himself started raising them, albeit subtly, and then tries to fit in a comment made by Lari taken out of context and twisted a bit to fit in with this. I find this to be a very subtle attempt to start swaying suspicion towards Wilwa, which would be especially sinister given his previous statements about people saying what they think. He keeps insinuating Wilwa’s guilt without ever following through.

(...)

On the whole, it’s his case against Wilwa and Lari that make him look the most suspicious. Whether Wilwa is an innocent or a wolf, the subtlety in his case after telling people to speak their minds and stir things up is highly suspicious.

You'd think she was Lari's BFF, wouldn't you? However, her analysis of Lari herself presents a different picture.

#212.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

The Dreamer revels...well if I sort of had any doubts about Pitch my doubts about Morsul have increased ten fold. However, I am leaning towards what others are saying about him maybe being the Agent. Mostly because he is new to the game and possibly a new confused Agent would think of a bold and risky move to either get the wolves attention or to save the pack. Though I'm not sure who he is trying to save, but time(hopefully) will tell.

The Priest revels...klsdfskfj...Ok now that that is out. I have no idea what to think. On one hand Hakon's boasty "haha! I has fooled the wolves by not protecting Pitch but I shall toNight! And oh yes! Let me add that I know SPM was a wolf!" sounds very much like him. But at the same time it sounds enough like him to make me doubt it. He did some weird game logic stuff before and for all we know this is the same thing.

And then Wilwa revels. And claims that no really she totally did protect Pitch last Night. And even admits saying that was who she protected was bad(after being caught by Roa(?). Her revel seems...more I don't want to say genuine, because in his own way Hakon sounds very genuine. Her's seems less gloating. And she mentioned that there were clues, which can obviously be faked and planted everywhere, but some people do rely on them to work and for when they revel having tangible evidence to prove their role.

However, this could be a bold move by two wolves trying to survive. Or this is what my sleepy brain thinks could be a possibility.

EDIT (left out comment):Supports Wilwa (again); supports Hakon more mildly. Why not try to get him lynched? Thinks Morsul is the Agent. It is possible that she is eager to do the latter because he isn't the Agent, but her packmate. Not likely, but something to bear in mind just in case Wilwa's innocent after all. Also throws out the suggestion that both claimants are wolves.

#232
[from long analysis of Lari]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Lari
[I]She gives short explanations for each view, which I appreciate. However, she builds her suspicion of Hakon using an out of context statement by SPM and feeds each one into the other, making a circular argument. Could be an innocent trying to give reason to her gut, or could be a wolf building a weak case to distance herself from her fellow.

(...)

I don't have a problem with her response to Nogrod. In fact this is the primary reason I suspect him.

(...)

Her consideration of voting Hakon looks almost like a wolf trying to salvage a situation gone horribly wrong.

(...)

Post 1- "Seems" that SPM's death confirms Pitch as seer

Seems?

(...)

The most suspicious thing about her is her case against Hakon and SPM, which was weak and based on pure assumption. A poor case is not always a sign of a wolf. I don't see why she suspects Hakon. She basically says that he's suspicious because he's acting like himself, which seems like a very made up reason to me.

Raises some interesting– and pretty damaging– points against Lari.

#234.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Lari was saying SPM needed watching early on. She expressed some doubt about Pitch's reveal. I can't fault her for that, since it caught me by surprise too.

Possibly trying to help Lari. Or just to be fair.

#244

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

• Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife
• Post 1- "Seems" that SPM's death confirms Pitch as seer
  
• Seems?

"Seems" because at the time I still had the thought of "maybe Pitch "revealed"(ha now I can spell that) so as to get raid of the high profile wolf". And then Morsul revealed and I began to believe Pitch more because, really, that was an awkward reveal.

Roa is not setting off any alarms with me and neither is Legate. Nog I just have no read on at all, because he is acting like Nog and I tend to not be able to read him at all. Inzil I still have no idea and wish I had more time to look at not just him but also Nog to see if there is anything in their posts.

(...)

Nienna is beginning to set off alarms for me. Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?)

Brinn and Kitanna I just want to see slightly more of. They both are coming up way neutral to me and I'm not sure if thats a good thing or not.

Crayon...no idea what to think.

Careful to say nothing concrete, except about the one she's lynching. Feels the need to defend herself against Roa.

...Aaannnnd it's pointing to Wilwa again. I do hope she's guilty, because otherwise it could be pretty hard to get that last wolf.

If not her then... well, Inzi's comment could be interpreted as a subtle defence. Or maybe Morsul is a wolf acting the cobbler, as some have suggested..

That's about all I can come up with. I'll look at Day 3 tomorrow.
EDIT:X'd since my last post.
EDIT2:added comment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I seem to remember Wilwa's game with Little Red Cap.

Ah, how could I forget?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Anyway, I'm looking at Legate and Nerwen's votes for Lari yesterDay. Brinn and Loslote were tied; then Legate gave the first vote for Lari. He'd done some analysis on her, and his vote couldn't really be said to be out of left field. Now, there were still Nog and Nerwen to vote, so there was a very real possibility Lari could have been lynched. Nog then went with Loslote, with Nerwen following up with Lari. Nerwen had said she was thinking of voting Lari, based on Lari's comment about Brinn being a 'fed up innocent'.
Legate, I think, looks pretty good. Nerwen is less certain, though she did point out that possible slip of Lari's.

Can I just point out that at that time my connection suddenly got really slow and it was taking 4-5 minutes for me to post? I never intended to leave the vote so late. And I didn't just vote her for the possible slip, but for the whole post.

Roa, I completely agree with your reasoning on Wilwa. However, I'm checking out Lari's relations with others... just in case. Her being innocent requires the wolves to have screwed up royally, but you never know.

So far it keeps coming up Wilwa anyway.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Roa

If we have two revealed rangers, neither is a wolf, and neither is the Agent (Morsul removed that possibility for us), then the wolves have two targets and no reason to leave either alive: If they kill one, then the village would naturally lynch the other, and they could happily kill the seer.

They might choose not to kill them to add to the confusion. If they killed one of the claimed rangers, the village would question why they chose to do so. After all, they'd be exposing the true identity of the ranger. If wilwa as an ordo was killed, we'd definitely not lynch Hakon. And if they killed Hakon, then we'd be hesitant to lynch wilwa because why would a wolf expose herself like that? But if they left them both alive, chances were that we'd lynch one of them and they could take care of the other the following Night.

Btw, if we lynch wilwa toMorrow and she turns out as not a wolf, I say we try lynching Morsul next. I know he looks very much like an agent, but we don't know it for sure. And I'd hate to let a wolf get away just because we made an assumption. Anyway, considering the ratio will be 8-1 toMorrow (correct me if I'm wrong), it's again something we can afford to do. We have plenty of Days left before we're in danger and with number of known innocents we already have I'm quite confident we will win. And if our final wolf somehow does manage to survive all this, then they deserve that win because they'd be awfully slick (as well as lucky with all this distraction brought on from false reveals).

I know a lot of things seem clear cut right now, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are...so let's just not assume anything until it's been proven.