Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Roa_Aoife]

I can already tell this day is going to be wasted. *throws hands up and stalks off to do analysis*

Edit: Crossed with Legate

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I can already tell this day is going to be wasted. *throws hands up and stalks off to do analysis*

Edit: Crossed with Legate

Good luck with that.

[Brinniel]

Well I just spent the last half hour doing dishes instead (they were really piling up), so there goes that time. While I haven't had time to look back at yesterDay, I did skim through toDay again. This is what I have so far:

Legate's reactions and frustrations towards all the reveals looks genuine to me, and I'm inclined to find him more innocent than not. However, he's managed to fool an entire village before, so I'll remain wary.

Roa is one who always worries me. I want to trust her, I really do. Because she's making a whole lot of sense as we try to sort through this chaos, and I do agree with a lot that she has to say. Yet she can be so deceptive, and I always fear that she is completely fooling me.

I found Loslote's behaviour a bit suspicious yesterDay, but with Spm's vote for her, I find her more innocent toDay. Considering that who'd be lynched was a complete toss-up when he voted yesterDay, I really doubt Spm would've made a wolf-on-wolf vote.

While I don't particularly suspect Inzil just yet, I'm getting the feeling that I should keep a close eye on him. And perhaps when I get the chance I'll reread his posts more thoroughly.

Kitanna hasn't posted enough for me to form an opinion of her yet, but she's also one I always watch closely because she can be sneaky and I believe she's had a history of surviving as a lone wolf to the end...so she can most definitely fool an entire village.

I can't think of much else now, and I'm too tired to. I don't know how much participation I can give in the morning, but considering I don't have any suspect as of now, I hope to make some progress before I make my vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't know if I would see his claim as a joke, though perhaps I can see where she's coming from on the idea that maybe he's an ordo who made a severely wrong move. Considering his behaviour so far, I wouldn't be surprised if that turned out so.

I would. Even a very confused ordo should have realised that he would only be getting the (presumed) real Dreamer killed if he succeeded. I mean, along with repeatedly denouncing "the impostor" Pitchwife, he also urged the Ranger not to protect him (#166). Does that sound like a misguided ordo trying to draw fire from the real Seer to you? Really?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Though when I think about it, when I was a newbie I had difficulty understanding immediately what the role of cobbler exactly was. Is it at all possible Morsul is confused on what the agent does which is why he's going along with it?

Or possibly he really does think he's allowed to switch sides.

But of course, if he's just an ordo, then the false Priest– whichever it is– might be the real Agent. In which case if the real Priest were to die toNight, there'd be no call for us to lynch the impostor next Day...

You see why I'm getting worried about Nienna and her "if one of them's a wolf" business?

EDIT:spelling.

[Lariren Shadow]

*reads thread...screams**is also fully aware we are to be talking about not the revels*

Ok, so at the moment we have two reveals for what are pretty much the most crucial roles of the game at the moment(not saying the Changed isn't important but...well at the moment these are the two best defense we've got).

The Dreamer revels...well if I sort of had any doubts about Pitch my doubts about Morsul have increased ten fold. However, I am leaning towards what others are saying about him maybe being the Agent. Mostly because he is new to the game and possibly a new confused Agent would think of a bold and risky move to either get the wolves attention or to save the pack. Though I'm not sure who he is trying to save, but time(hopefully) will tell.

The Priest revels...klsdfskfj...Ok now that that is out. I have no idea what to think. On one hand Hakon's boasty "haha! I has fooled the wolves by not protecting Pitch but I shall toNight! And oh yes! Let me add that I know SPM was a wolf!" sounds very much like him. But at the same time it sounds enough like him to make me doubt it. He did some weird game logic stuff before and for all we know this is the same thing.

And then Wilwa revels. And claims that no really she totally did protect Pitch last Night. And even admits saying that was who she protected was bad(after being caught by Roa(?). Her revel seems...more I don't want to say genuine, because in his own way Hakon sounds very genuine. Her's seems less gloating. And she mentioned that there were clues, which can obviously be faked and planted everywhere, but some people do rely on them to work and for when they revel having tangible evidence to prove their role.

However, this could be a bold move by two wolves trying to survive. Or this is what my sleepy brain thinks could be a possibility.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Just saw this... it worries me... I've seen more than one wolf jokingly say they are a wolf to have it brushed off (which it was).

I have no idea what to believe anymore in this game.

I really wish I could think better. I also hope that I can wake myself up for deadline because at the moment my definatly partially dehydrated worked a full shift mind is not coming to anything anymore right now. I'm going to set my alarm for an hour and a half before deadline and hopefully will wake up and participate. If its only to vote very sorry.

Speaking of votes, because I needed to keep track:
Hakon --> Wilwa
Morsul --> Hakon
Crayon --> Morsul

[Pitchwife]

I'm back, and I notice there's been a lot of action in my absence.
Morsul certainly has been entertaining, but the show has collapsed by now. Probably Agent, so let's just ignore him for now.
Between Hakon and wilwa, it's hard to tell. Hakon's reveal certainly seems premature (now look who's talking!), but I think him quite capable of pulling off a gamble last Night; he might even be an ordo trying to confuse the wolves. On the other hand, wilwa blurting out that she's already protected me last Night would be strange if she's genuine - it's basically telling the wolves to come and get me. Right now I'm leaning slightly towards believing Hakon, but I'd advocate against lynching either of them toDay (sheer egoism: with two Priests around, my chances of survival are dramatically increased). Things may sort themselves out in the Morning.
So yes, we need to look at everybody else. Unfortunately I can't stick around much longer (must be off to work soon and won't be back before DL) and don't really have enough time for any deep analysis - so I'll do a hurried survey and then a hasty early vote *horror*.
Oh yes, and an urgent plea to our Changed: please stay quiet, there's enough confusion already!

(x-ed w/ Lari)

[Pitchwife]

Argh. This mess sucks. I'm afraid every vote I could make at the moment would be rushed and bordering on randomness, so I'll rather not vote at all toDay. If I survive, I'll make up for it toMorrow, promise - if not, good luck! Cthulhu bless you!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

However, I am leaning towards what others are saying about him maybe being the Agent. Mostly because he is new to the game and possibly a new confused Agent would think of a bold and risky move to either get the wolves attention or to save the pack. Though I'm not sure who he is trying to save, but time(hopefully) will tell.

Nobody– I think he was hoping to get Pitchwife lynched, or at least left unprotected.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

However, this could be a bold move by two wolves trying to survive. Or this is what my sleepy brain thinks could be a possibility.

In which case the wolves are in the interesting situation of having to keep the real Ranger (whoever that may be) alive, since his death would expose both of them. With only two wolves left, that seems suicidal.

What gets me is that both of them sound genuine! While at the same time each has done something about equally foolish/suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Oh yes, and an urgent plea to our Changed: please stay quiet, there's enough confusion already!

Good thinking. I was just about to reveal, but– darn it! Now look what you made me do <=Now that is a joke reveal.

EDIT:X'd with Pitchwife.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, first, let me sum up the Gifted nonsenses so that I may get this over with from my part.

Morsul I would believe is indeed an agent, Pitch is still most likely a real Dreamer, and as for the Priest, hard to say. I guess we should indeed let this sort out by itself, like Roa said.

1. No reason to lynch Morsul, as I'd think he's an Agent, and there is no reason whatsoever to lynch the Agent. (However, I sympathise with Crayon's vote, as I can see the point. Though not that I encourage such behavior in general.)

2. With the Rangers, we do more harm with lynching one than with letting them be, as if one of them is a real one and one a Wolf, then most likely it's the problem for the WWs, and they will kill the real Ranger one Night. It's really nonsense for the WWs to keep the real Ranger alive, at least by the end, when there are some six people remaining, if such a pair of them was still alive, then it'll be really easy to catch a Wolf then. Aside from that, Ranger can wreak havoc upon the WWs by protecting people, the longer he survives, the bigger his chances are. So I really say we leave these two be as well. (As for whom of them I believe more, I have some reasons for each, in short as for Hakon, I mostly said my feelings before when he revealed, only to note also I wonder that he used the word "ranger" and not "priest" to label himself, though whatever. Wilwa, in some ways it would make more sense, I could imagine her reacting like that if she was true Ranger, on the other hand... well, actually honestly, her revelation does not make much sense for me, even if she was a Ranger and even if she was a Wolf, but it could be pretty irrational, especially if she is true Ranger and sees Hakon's claim. But like I said, let's leave it be for now.)

That means, let's focus on others. I do not, alas, have much time to do anything now, but first, a few random remarks of what I noted while reading the thread. Later I hope to post something more yet.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Okay, this is making me slightly uneasy, especially considering that Morsul indeed must be a fake. It looks like jumping on whatever train rides by, and maybe trying if there is a chance to get rid of the real Seer. On the other hand, perhaps it'd be slightly too uncautious from a wolf.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As for the seers, well the wolves would be really foolish to leave the real seer alive to continue dreaming. Which means that every day Morsul and Pitch are still alive, the should post their dreams. If either finds a wolf, we lynch the "wolf." If it's a real wolf, hooray, we killed a real wolf. If not we know who the liar is. If it's an innocent, well, when the real seer dies we will have a list of known innocents.

Logically, one of the seers is the Agent and one of the rangers is a wolf.

Everyone else, I highly doubt there is more than one wolf in the mix. Definitely the agent, a wolf, and two gifteds. Which mean that there is still a wolf out there. Let's let this mess sort it out, because it will, and move on to finding the other wolf hiding in all of this chaos.

Roa looks good to me, and I agree with the elaboration of hers above which I quote.

By the way, and this was asked before, maybe we should ask McCabber Himself, how many WWs are around, then? There is nothing on the Admin thread about it, and the first narration says something about "four paws", though that is by no means anything official.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Wow my memory is that bad huh? I'm so caught up in Pitchwife's claim I'm forgetting who's innocent... Well I hope a slip of memory doesn't make everyone make the wrong choice about the real seer

(I marked this post to quote while I was still reading the thread... well, hilarious, obviously )

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Please, people. If you are wrong about the person you think is a wolf, then you are killing a gifted, which plays right into the wolves hands. There is only a 1/4 chance of getting the right person, and 1/2 chance of killing a gifted. Are you really going to risk killing a gifted on odds like that? We need the ranger alive and we need the seer alive.

That mess will definitely sort itself out. Just leave it be for now and don't risk our gifted on something you can't be sure of.

Agreed, and just repeating it to prove the point.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree that we should leave them be. If Wilwa is the seer, then the wolves can kill Pitchie. But then we know that Hakon's a wolf, and we can lynch him. If Hakon's the seer, then they can't kill Pitchie toNight. But if Pitchie doesn't die, it doesn't prove that Hakon's the ranger, it just gives a bit more legitimacy to his claim. Therefore, we only know for sure who's the ranger if Pitchie dies toNight. I'm definitely not happy with that, but what can you do?

By the way, this is actually a pretty good point too. So we WILL basically know the true Ranger by the next morning, even if the WWs don't kill the real one.

Brinn looks good to me, too, and sensible, by her posting.

I did not, this far, pay much attention to Nogrod, as I'd really need to go through his posts and focus on him in particular. Anyway, he's not around today, I may do that as long as there are not too many posts, let's see. I also want to check Nerwen. Somebody said that Kitanna may be good in fooling the village, it's true she seems genuine to me, but who knows. I am probably going to check these people as soon as I can. But now, I will probably leave and not sure how long before DL I'll come back (I have also other RL things to do). I will drop by, if nothing more, though.

[Nienna]

Ok I have to vote now. Nerwen's recent posts are making me wary. I'm not sure if it is just because of her close-mindedness about Morsul or not though. I'm going to keep my eye on her.

I'm really sorry that Nog isn't around to defend himself but I have no other person I'm comfortable with lynching.

++Nog

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

• Originally Posted by Inziladun
  Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
  However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
  I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Okay, this is making me slightly uneasy, especially considering that Morsul indeed must be a fake. It looks like jumping on whatever train rides by, and maybe trying if there is a chance to get rid of the real Seer. On the other hand, perhaps it'd be slightly too uncautious from a wolf.

Interestingly, Zil was pretty ready to cast doubt on Pitch's reveal yesterDay, too. Of course, that's before we knew SPM's role.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

By the way, and this was asked before, maybe we should ask McCabber Himself, how many WWs are around, then? There is nothing on the Admin thread about it, and the first narration says something about "four paws", though that is by no means anything official.

There are three.

Originally Posted by Narration in Admin thread

You three, go to the city of Innsmouth. Find the root of the problem, and destroy it.

EDIT: X'd with Nienna.