Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[satansaloser2005]

I have to leave in like ten minutes. I'm still not sure who to vote for.


(Going to go think about possible wolf packs.)

[Nienna]

We can't afford to split up the vote so keep that in mind.

[Nienna]

McCaber?? Are you still around? Who do you find suspicious?

[satansaloser2005]

Players:
Sally
Brinn
Nienna
Boro
Nilp
Greenie
Cabbie
Pitchie


Wolf pack #1: Greenie, Nilp, Pitchie
Wolf pack #2: Greenie, Nilp, Boro
Wolf pack #3: Greenie, Pitchie, Boro
Wolf pack #4: Greenie, Brinn, Nilp
Wolf pack #5: Greenie, Boro, Nienna
Wolf pack #6: Brinn, Pitchie, Boro
Wolf pack #7: Boro, Nilp, Pitchie
Wolf pack #8: Nilp, Nienna, Brinn
Wolf pack #9: Pitchie, Brinn, Nienna
Wolf pack #10: Pitchie, Brinn, Nilp

So....I guess my top suspects are Greenie, Pitch, and Nilp, more or less in that order. (And I know, it's not clear how I came to that conclusion based on the above list but it kind of makes sense in my head so meh.)

EDIT: x'd with Nienna

[satansaloser2005]

++Greenie



Sorry, but I really have to leave. Wish I could discuss but there's simply not time. I'd recommend (obviously) a Greenie lynch or possibly a Pitch lynch. Either is fine with me, since I think they both have an equal chance of being a wolf.


*dashes off*

[Boromir88]

The only thing I'm banging my head over repeatedly is, despite our best chances ever to get a wolf now than any other day...with wolves so close to winning there is no doubt 1, if not 2, trying to steer our choice to an innocent.

It appears that's what McCaber was going to be set up for today, but to our fortune (or I guess mis-fortune now, at least we can defend him another night) our Ranger is revealed. But if I have this correct, if we guard McCaber, he will not be able to protect anyone, correct?

It still would be better to guard him, that way there is a known innocent the next day, at least I'm assuming now he is who he says he is as now everyone has seen the reveal and no one's countered.

Edit: crossed with Nilp, who wonders the same thing, and I agree.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.

What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.

What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.

Oh bugger, I'd forgotten about that.

[McCaber]

I almost don't want to be guarded. I've been doing a terrible job of analysis, and I think giving the village one day (or possibly two, if the wolves are tricksey like that) to sort things out would be the best.

And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by McCaber

I almost don't want to be guarded. I've been doing a terrible job of analysis, and I think giving the village one day (or possibly two, if the wolves are tricksey like that) to sort things out would be the best.

And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.

However, you are a known innocent. It would be nice to have one less to suspect in the village, especially in this one.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

However, you are a known innocent. It would be nice to have one less to suspect in the village, especially in this one.

That's a fair point.

[Nienna]

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a host

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nienna

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a host

Oh, really now, Wolf?

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The Ranger: Each Night the Ranger chooses who they want to save from being killed by the Werewolves. The Ranger cannot save themselves or the same person twice in a row.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Oh, really now, Wolf?

No. McCaber can save himself. Then we will have a known innocent. We can also save someone who we all are seeming to trust giving us TWO people we trust and taking away a KILL from the wolves. All in all it is solid and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably a wolf.

[McCaber]

I'm nearly positive I can't save myself. Unless something has changed since the admin thread said "No," that is.

[Brinniel]

McCaber can't fend for himself toNight:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

No and no.

[A Little Green]

This may sound like retaliation but I'm really suspicious of Nienna. Her role in yesterDay's bandwagon as well as her arguments toDay just stink of wolf. Pitchwife too, to some extent, according to my logic. I'd be ready to lynch either because I'm quite positive they are two of our three wolves. What do you others think? Who to lynch?


EDIT: x-ed with Brinn, McCaber and Brinn

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I interpreted it literally, without that phrase 'or the same person' partitioned. Because obviously he can't guard himself twice in a row (if he can guard himself at all), cos he's the same person.

I think we need to get a ruling on this, though.

Eönwë, can McCaber Guard himself?

EDIT: inserted '(if he can guard himself at all)'.

[Brinniel]

Suspects:

Sally: Look my analysis post of her for reasons.

Nienna: Her latching onto my suspicions of wilwa and pulling for the last minute bandwagon looks really bad. I do want to look at her more, but I'm out of time.

Greenie: A possibility as she has seemed to be playing safe, which is suspicious. She's flown under my radar, but then again she always does that. The only thing is that a bunch of people have suddenly started flying suspicion Greenie's way and are ready to lynch her, and I fear that this could be the start of a bandwagon of an innocent, which would seal our fate.

Pitchwife: Noggie did have good points about him, but I really haven't had time to look at him, and I don't feel I could vote him before taking a look myself. Deadline's only 25 minutes away. Where did the time go?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I interpreted it literally, without that phrase 'or the same person' partitioned. Because obviously he can't guard himself twice in a row (if he can guard himself at all), cos he's the same person.

I think we need to get a ruling on this, though.

Eönwë, can McCaber Guard himself?

EDIT: inserted '(if he can guard himself at all)'.

No, he cannot guard himself. What you said is correct.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nienna

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a host

That he can, checked the admin thread.

In that case, I would feel most comfortable protecting Brinn.

Edit: Nilp, you're not reading the rest of the sentence that you have past the underlining..."The Ranger can not save themselves, or the same person, twice in a row." I take that to mean McCaber can guard himself, just not 2 days in a row...but I would guess McCaber would know that better than the rest of us.

[Brinniel]

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.

This line comes to be a bit strange. Not sure what to think.

I don't agree with Kit's reasoning for guarding Hakon. If she's innocent, it's not the best strategy (in my opinion it's better to protect people who aren't simply MIA, though I'm sure Hakon has a reason) although she does have a point about tendencies in wolf kills. (I actually guarded Mnemo because I know how unpredictable wolves can be if they like, so I don't put anything past anyone.) If she (Kit, that is) is guilty, however, there's a couple explanations.

It could be a throwaway on a packmate, thinking no one will follow her and so Hakon's activity won't get blocked. Dangerous, but you never know.
It could be a throwaway on an innocent, thinking no one will follow her and someone will believe the above. Makes a bit of sense to me, actually.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from a packmate (Legate?) so her furry friend(s) can kill at full capacity. Makes a lot of sense, but may be too obvious.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from someone she would like to kill toNight, a hope of getting people to vote Hakon so they don't try to protect X/Y. Also makes sense but wolves are flexible if they have to be so I don't like this one quite as much.
(By the same token maybe she thinks people will try to protect someone who's not been guard voted yet but who she thinks would be a usual choice. This theory could work for either of the last two.)

The thing is the I don't think a wolf Kit would guard a wolf Hakon and intend for him to actually be guarded; you can do your own maths on that one. So if Kit turns out to be a wolf down the line I'm going to say that either she's being tricksy or Hakon's innocent.

I still fail to see why Kit's guard vote looked so suspicious. Hakon could've easily been an early kill, and has been before.

That's the part I forgot to mention actually, though I'm sure you all realized it already. If we do at some point guard a suspect (and there are four wolves) if there are still two kills we know that person is innocent. So really it's like we've got an extra seer dream (sort of) every Night until we kill a wolf. Shiny, yes?

Either an innocent realising something brilliant or a wolf trying to look good.

Then she gives a lot of tallies and votes Kit at the final minute. I don't care about her reasons behind voting her, but the fact that she was just chilling giving tallies but no other contribution for the last hour still looks suspicious.

Told ya so. Just sayin'. (In regards to my poor dead duckling, that is.)

Interesting comment. It'd be clever for a wolf-Sally to try to save Mnemo then kill her in the Night.

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.

Seems to be feeling out for opinions before making her own.

++Nienna (meh, might as well)

That was her guard vote. But I'm questioning what she exactly means by "might as well."

++Shasta

Wasn't really around that Day and this guard vote came out of nowhere.

Nog, here's our problem. I wouldn't mind being rid of McCaber either, but I think our options for toDay just became Wilwa and Hakon, thanks to Miss Brinn. So....yeah.

She says she can't vote for McCaber because of me, which I find weird. I still find her entire reaction to my vote that Day just odd behaviour.

I know it's a bit late in the game to be voting on feelings, but I don't have time to look through all the posts. I'm considering....a Wilwa lynch? (The thing is I don't know if it's me who came up with this in my head or if I'm just subconsciously going along with the discussion of Wilwa toDay. Maybe I'll look at her toNight and hope to be around to take care of her tomorrow. I've not decided yet.

Begins to hop the bandwagon, which is suspicious.

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)

Such an early vote on a critical Day looks very bad.

I flip flopped on Sally earlier, but now she's looking more suspicious than not.