Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes.

How is the Day 1 thing between me and Mnemo shady? We were technically right in thinking it was a good idea, were we not? And if my name was the only name to show up in both of the lynchings I would get how that would seem suspicious, but how does that work for me showing up in both NG votes? I thought Legate and Nog were both good to keep around, and it just so happened everyone else did too, don't see the shadyness there.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Hadn't thought of that. Mnemo was the one she seemed to mention most and her back and forth with her (seeming to suspect but then defend her right after) just stood out for me, which is why I brought that up yesterDay. But of course it could have been someone else, maybe even someone she never mentioned. I had listed all her posts yesterDay so maybe I'll go back and re-read them, see if I can think of any other possibilities. Though Brinn does make sense as well.

Have to run off again, but should be back soon.

x'ed with Pitch and Nerwen, interesting points Pitch

[Brinniel]

One thing I realised about this one-kill thing. Not only do the wolves prevent known innocents, but they are forcing us to change our strategy. If the wolves had done two kills, we would probably continue the strategy of guarding those who are suspicious to figure out their role. That means if those we suspect and choose to guard turn out innocent, the wolves lose potential lynch targets. Once those suspicious innocents are cleared, the wolves become much easier targets, especially if they are acting suspicious. But now since we can't know innocents, that strategy cannot work. So perhaps because a wolf (or more) was considered suspicious they decided to do the one-kill so that suspicious innocents who could be lynched would not be guarded and then cleared.

I should look back and see which players were attracting some suspicion in the previous Days. Right now, only wilwa and Inzil come to mind.

[wilwarin538]

So I re-read all of Kit's posts again. Her guard vote for Hakon could have been a hint that he was her dream, but I'm not really sure about that. Her Brinn vote doesn't sound like she had dreamt of a wolfBrinn. Her post about wanting to see a red flag that read WOLF, but then saying that didn't happen, still sounds to me like she was saying she didn't dream a wolf. The fact that she was so strongly against The Plan, in my mind, strengthens this. Plus she kept mentioning "Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation" but then would never mention me and just concentrate on Mnemo, who should talked about quite a bit and who we now know was innocent.

I don't know. It's tough because I don't want to just throw away Kit's posts as being unimportant, but it really doesn't seem like there's anything concrete in there. The only people she mentioned were me, Mnemo, Brinn and Hakon. Out of the four it seems the most likely dreams were Mnemo and Hakon. And then of course she may have dreamt of someone else all together, which of course doesn't give us any info.

As for who I'm going to vote for. I'm tempted to go with Inzil, since I've been fairly suspicious of him since yesterDay, I may go back and re-read all his posts. I think I'm also going to take a closer look at Boro (after what Pitch brought up).

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here at last! First some comments on toDay, then probably the list I promised already yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty.

How's that? While I agree with the consensus that we can't derive from the one kill a conclusion that he's guilty, we can't overlook the possibility either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen (underlining mine)

++Inziladun. It's sort of out of him and Wilwa for me at the moment.

I don't like having to vote early each Day, but DL comes at a really bad time for me. Please don't everyone just pile on my vote this time! There are a good many other people that need looking at, notably Sally, Nilp and the ones who have hardly been around– Nessa, Brinniel etc.

I don't like the underlined part. It looks like resigning from the responsibility if Zil is lynched and turns out to be innocent. If you don't want others to vote for him, why vote for him yourself? It always gives me the creeps to see someone do that: pick an easy lynch target (and Inziladun surely is that, given that he's been suspected by quite many people), then vote, and end with a wish that others don't jump on it. If you suspect a person, you want others to vote him too!

List coming up. I also think I had something to comment on from yesterDay, but really can't remember what it was. Maybe I'll go and check.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[A Little Green]

CREEPY:
Nerwen - Generally she gives me good vibes (but she can be such a smooth wolf that that is no evidence I guess) but there have been a few things that disturb me about her. Her toDay's vote I commented on in my previous post, as well as a post of hers from yesterDay (I will look at that after this post) have made me uneasy.
Nogrod - Aaaargh. I still suspect him to some point, though he's been improving lately. His conduct, the way he seems to be decidedly of the opinion that an opinion differing from his own is less well thought of, makes me uneasy about him, because (like I believe I said on Day 1) an innocent needs to look at things from every possible perspective. And, on top of that, there is the NG thing. Now, I agree that no roles can be derived from the NG stuff, but it would just strike me as very odd that the wolves would let their advantage pass for a second time in a row (but then, I didn't get it the first time, either...)
satansaloser2005 - She is another I wanted to look at from yesterDay. There have been several things to make me wary of her, including her near-deadline behaviour on Day 1 and the post from yesterDay where she seemed to assume that Legate is innocent. I'll take a look at her if I have time.

NO IDEA:
alonariel - Well she'll be dead soon, won't she? Not much to say, therefore.
Brinniel - I'm so bad at reading her! She seems innocent, but she seems so every single time I play with her, regardless of her role.
Inziladun - No read.
McCaber - Likewise.
Nessa Telrunya - Who?
Pitchwife - I have a vague memory that I had something to point out about him but can't remember what it was.. So far I really can't say.
Shastanis Althreduin - Completely under my reindeer.
wilwarin538 - It would seem somehow too obvious if she was a wolf. Yet I have to admit some of the arguments against her do hold water. A difficult case.

CUDDLY:
Boromir88 - Hmmmmm. I've been sort of trusting him all along and am worried by that I don't even consider him a possible wolf. Nothing alarming this far, though.
Hakon - I disagree with him on many points but he seems innocent.
Nienna - No alarm bells.
Nilpaurion Felagund - Seems innocentish.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

satansaloser2005 - She is another I wanted to look at from yesterDay. There have been several things to make me wary of her, including her near-deadline behaviour on Day 1 and the post from yesterDay where she seemed to assume that Legate is innocent. I'll take a look at her if I have time.

Missed that post. Which was it? (there were so many )

[Nogrod]

Gamewise I'm really sorry, but I'm not able to continue toDay as I got a surprise visit which RL wise is quite nice...

Which leads me to think that toDay I should use the "abstain from voting" option as I feel I should have actually looked at the different possibilities more closely before voting. There are too many options around and I haven't read the thread since I last posted.

So

+- abstain

What I said the last time holds - but those thoughts do not have the wisdom of reading what you have said after them...

ToDay is no time for trying people out with guarding so I'll go with

++ guard Nerwen

If innocent, she would be valuable and guardable.

Make good decisons toDay! Good luck and I do hope to see you toMorrow!

[Hakon]

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by wilwa

This one I'm assuming? Yes, this one is a bit odd. I think Legate even quoted it and said that originally she hadn't had that part in brackets but she edited that in after. But I really don't think this is much to go on, unless this isn't the one you were talking about Greenie.

Yes, that one, and yes, Leggy quoted it yesterDay. It's not much, I know, but the point of view in it is just - wrong. Like, it was more probable that Legate was innocent, yet still she advocated his lynching as much as everybody else?

Who do you guys want to lynch? I wouldn't fancy making a throwaway vote.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Considering that we only have 2 known gifteds left this holds true for most players. Should we then lynch everyone? I do not like your reasoning Hakon.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Well observed. Indeed, I find this current lack of suspicion quite surprising myself. Can't somebody suspect me, please? I've got used to it by now. And I mean, look, I had quite a part in the NG-test discussion, I voted to lynch our Seer on Day 1 and another innocent yesterDay, I was part of the Nogrod Guardwagon, and now I start suspecting someone I voted to Guard earlier, while defending a heavily suspected Inzil, who in turn votes to Guard me! Surely a case can be made from that?

I'm more or less torn about wilwa - there have been good points made against her, but also good points by herself. And I'm not sure whether I suspect Boro enough to vote him, at least not without giving him a chance to speak for himself.
Where is our psychic apothecary when we need him?

(x-ed from Brinn's #427 onwards. Nienna, thanks for the long-missed suspicion! I appreciate it.)

[Brinniel]

Just some highlights from yesterDay...

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know.

First post of the Day. She seems a bit careful, not wanting to go completely one way or another. Perhaps waiting to see the others' reactions before taking a side.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf. Many people voted to guard him yesterday because he was being somewhat suspicious. We also need to keep the kills down to one now that we have lost our seer so lynching a wolf will be in our best interest.

Is the first to seem slightly certain of Legate's guilt.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm watching McCaber who pointed out the wolves may want to fake us out and only chose one kill, so we lynch the person we guarded the day before. Interesting theory, but most peculiar that McCaber points this out yesterday, Legate is guarded, and we awake with only one death.

Interesting catch, though it doesn't necessarily point to McCaber's guilt. His comment could've just given the wolves the idea.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I agree, though, that it does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

I believe was the first to come up with the theory that one or the other was a wolf. Many others continued to state that theory as the Day went on.

Originally Posted by Nilp

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

++Inziladun

Is the first to vote and vote for Inzil. Not sure what to think of that.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.

Pointing out Legate's comment about being guarded.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

Seems certain of his guilt and very eager to lynch him. But is that eagerness because she really did think we were going to nab a wolf or was she a wolf eager to lynch an innocent?

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

The way she says this almost sounds like she's expecting him to end up innocent.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)

Legate pointed this out as a slip, though I'm not sure it is. It's just worded a bit strange, I think.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But somehow I can't believe for a moment both her and Legate are innocents. So if Legate turns out innocent for some reason I'd be looking at Wilwa the first thing toMorrow.

Interesting comment. But has he done that yet? I can't remember.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

Comments on the situation, but seems to restrain from giving his own opinion on the matter.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Every time I re-read everything Legate says he makes more and more sense to me. I see the merit that his ideas have. I don't think they're as likely as some other possibilities, but I do really respect the work he's put into them. I do however still think that lynching him would get us further along, if he's guilty (which I think is more probable) then that's awesome, if he happens to be innocent then it provides us with a better idea of what sort of wolves we're dealing with, and we can try to figure out who would have been more likely to agree/come up with such a risky bluff. I'm seeing that the latter is more possible then I originally thought it was, but I don't think it's as likely, so I'm willing to take the risk. Besides, if we did lynch someone else instead we would just be back to wondering what to do with Legate tomorrow (not to mention we could accidently kill another gifted), and we wouldn't really have accomplished to much regarding that subject. So it's our best bet really, despite the risk.

It is strange she shares a moment of doubt not long after the theory that either she or Legate is a wolf is discussed.

Originally Posted by McCaber

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive

Originally Posted by wilwa

Alright. Well I'll still be aroud til the DL but I'm just gonna do this now to avoid the rush:

++ Guard Nogrod

Originally Posted by Inzil

++Guard Nogrod

for Cab's reasons.

Originally Posted by Hakon

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

Interesting. These votes look particularly bad from Inzil and Hakon. Very bandwagonish.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Inzil

But...let's try this.

++ Brinniel

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

Where did this come from? Inzil, you seem to have this habit of latching onto other people's opinions.

[Inziladun]

As I've said, I have no wish to vote for Nogrod this time. He certainly can't be considered totally innocent, but neither is he clearly wolfish.

Finding a wolf today is most imperative, as the double-kill option ought to be taken from them immediately.

I'm tempted to vote for the Fool toDay. I find his little-explained obsession with me somewhat disconcerting, and looking past the clever haikus and absurd quips might lead to something darker.

But...let's try this.

++ Brinniel

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

++ Guard Pitchwife

He's made some good points. Could be valuable.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

What comments? I think I've missed something...