Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

Well maybe his fault, or maybe to his honour - even if unintended.

I mean we could be two more down right now. So instead of being four down we could be six down... and continue the multiplation if you wish...

And like yesterDay I still think that is a bad tactics for them. Yeah, they kind of succeeded yesterDay but with what cost? With every kill they don't do we gain more Days to read them and we have better chances of starting to find patterns from their actions.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them.

Heh, almost the whole village... If you're looking at the votes I'd rather look at those Inzil-voters. I mean it was so clear we were going to lynch Legate from the first hours on (unless something really drastic happened) that a cool wolf would have done a reasonable job hiding in the opposition that would look soo good afterwards.

To take my idea with a pinch of salt I must say I was really starting to suspect Lommy again late yesterDay as she was so outstandingly adamant with her defence of Legate. It would have been really the best thing a wolf could have done yesterDay. But alas, she was innocent as well... and dead now.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

So chew on that you lupine child-killers!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves. It has yet to come back and bite them, though with any luck that will change today.
Sorting out the Legate voters will indeed be tough, as they obviously can't all be wolves. I'll take a look at them though.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves.

We can basically hold on two known innocents - and only so far our ranger is alive... And with a village of 15+ that is of no "serious impediment" to us anyway.

The known innocents would help us later though - and there's the stinger for the cowardly Night-stabbers: the chance of your Days of having two kills comes closer to the end every hour and if you keep up killing just one it will be a miserable and hard journey for you to reach to the end needing to win so many more lynches, but if you start killing two you produce us known innocents just at the moment we need them and they can make a difference then when our numbers are less! We'll just need to start picking the NG's not for trying their guilt but actually for trusting them to be worth the protection to follow.

Think about that the next Night wolves...

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[wilwarin538]

not too much to read...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

....

I mean we could be two more down right now. So instead of being four down we could be six down... and continue the multiplation if you wish...

And like yesterDay I still think that is a bad tactics for them. Yeah, they kind of succeeded yesterDay but with what cost? With every kill they don't do we gain more Days to read them and we have better chances of starting to find patterns from their actions.

Heh, almost the whole village... If you're looking at the votes I'd rather look at those Inzil-voters. I mean it was so clear we were going to lynch Legate from the first hours on (unless something really drastic happened) that a cool wolf would have done a reasonable job hiding in the opposition that would look soo good afterwards.

.....

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

So chew on that you lupine child-killers!

Exactly. This is exactly why I was so sure Legate had to be guilty because I don't get why they are giving up this chance. If I was a wolf I'd be so excited to be able to kill that many people at once, since it's how they win. Since one of them will eventually die (thus losing double kills) it's not like there would have been that many known innocents created, and they would have been able to eventually kill those known innocents anyway. I completely don't get it. We really just now have far more time to discuss and analyse everything.

Basically: thank you wolves for giving up your advantage and giving us more time to hunt you down! We really appreciate it!

So either we're dealing with inexperienced wolves (don't really know who they could even be though), or experienced wolves who are trying to make us think they are inexperienced. Probably the latter.

Wow. I don't get this. It's so screwed up.

So. I'm exhausted, had a long day filled with really annoying customers, but I'm gonna stay around for about the next half hour, then I should be on fairly consistently tomorrow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bah, humbug.

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty. That's good, fellow villagers.

Why Lommy, though? Well, the only thing I can come up with is that there were only three non-Legate voters: himself, her, and . . . me. Paint a bulls-eye at me, will you? And on a bloody weekend, at that?

Be back with a lynch tally. *gags*

[wilwarin538]

hmmm. falling asleep on my keyboard here so I'm gonna head out. be back in the morning with a clearer head.

[satansaloser2005]

DAY ONE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate
Pitchie-->Kit (4)
Legate-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Dun
Nog-->Greenie
Lommie-->Kit (5)
Sally-->Kit (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (3)
Pitchie-->Boro (4)
Lommie-->Legate (5)
Legate-->Lommie
Wilwa-->Legate (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


DAY TWO

Lynch
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Legate
Boro-->Legate (2)
Hakon-->Legate (3)
Greenie-->Legate (4)
Lommie-->Dun (2)
Nienna-->Legate (5)
Wilwa-->Legate (6)
Brinn-->Legate (7)
Pitch-->Legate (8)
Cabbie-->Dun (3)
Nessa-->Legate (9)
Nog-->Legate (10)
Dun-->Legate (11)
Legate-->Dun (4)
Sally-->Legate (12)

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta


Guard
Nilp-->Wilwa
Nerwen-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog
Lommie-->Nilp
Nienna-->Nerwen (2)
Brinn-->Shasta
Pitch-->Nog (2)
Cabbie-->Noggie (3)
Wilwa-->Noggie (4)
Nessa-->Noggie (5)
Legate-->Nilp (2)
Dun-->Nog (6)
Nog-->Boro
Hakon-->Nog
Sally-->Nienna

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta

Innocents are in italics, known baddies (not that we have any) underlined. Gifteds are bolded as well

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)

Oh, there were four of us?

+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Sqwuak! I am a parrot!

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.