Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo



My head, it pounds. I really do need to get off for a while and do some housework if nothing else. Leave some (but not lots? meh) for me to read when I get back in an hour or so.

[Pitchwife]

Legate, when you come back, would you mind explaining the reasoning behind your Guarding suggestions (Nerwen and Lommy)? I agree that Nerwen's been rather reasonable in her few posts, Lommy slightly less so from my perspective; I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*foams at the mouth*

Now that that's out of the way...

I think Legate and Lommy look odd and I think Mnemo's lack of explanation of her wilwa vote seems fishy.

Regarding her plan, though, I think it's a good one, and if we do decide to execute it today (which, although probably not going to occur, I am not against), we'd have a protected Seer from the beginning, which is no small occurrence... especially with the recent wolfish (and innocent) track record of killing the Seer day/night 1 (I think it's been three games in a row now, right?)

Anyway, vote soonish, I have a lot going on today (hi Brinn.)

[Nerwen]

Well, I have to vote now– and alas! I have no time to sing you a farewell song!

Guard:

++Legate

Likely to be a target if innocent; at the same time, he's making me slightly uneasy for some reason I can't put my finger on. So, I think he's a good choice however you look at it.

Lynch:

++Kitanna

Reason: apparent jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan. All her points are fine, understand, but again there is something that doesn't sit quite right with me.

This is just the usual weak Day One reason for voting: I don't have a proper case against Kit, or anyone.

I mean, I could have voted Wilwa for the same thing, but I'm not ready to jump on Mnemo's vote, when she never gave a reason.
EDIT: X'd since Sally.

[Pitchwife]

Time to start thinking about my own vote. Up to now, those whose contributions I like best are (in alphabetical order, not in order of preference) Boro, Mnemo and Nog; all of them have produced well-reasoned arguments, and I think we should definitely keep them around, so I'll probably vote to Guard one of them. I'd like to include Legate, but I'm with Nerwen here - something about him doesn't feel quite sound; I'll need to hear from and think about him some more. I'm starting to like Nerwen herself quite well, too, though she hasn't yet impressed me quite as much as those mentioned above - which may just be because her style is less openly controversial.

Picking a lynch candidate will be much more difficult. At the moment, Kitanna does look most fishy, for reasons given by Boro (#97) and, again, Nerwen (#106).
Others:
Brinn - don't like her vote, but otherwise she looks ok;
Lommy - good point by Nogrod in #87 (about her switching arguments and the moral high ground);
Sally - what Nog said about Lommy also applies to her #77; otherwise she's been very active and doesn't look really bad; I like the reason she gave for her Guard vote.
wilwa - not sure; I'd like to hear Mnemo explain where her vote for wilwa comes from; her interaction with Mnemo could be a wolf grabbing a controversial topic as a chance to stir discord, could be innocent.
Haven't really formed an opinion about Greenie, Inzil, Nienna, Shasta (of those who've talked at all).

[Nogrod]

I might join this "guard Legate" bandwagon just to remove one kill from the coming Night... or then saving a misguided innocent who'd try a bit better toMorrow (or later toDay).

I mean really, I was not sure I belived what I saw when I was looking at his first postings toDay. An intelligent guy like him talking against the revealment-plan from totally weird angles that had nothing to do with the reality we're facing. To be honest it looked like "let's torpedo this plan with whatever I can come up with" - and failing...

Not surprisingly I found the same agenda from Lommy's posting while Legate then went on saying he trusted her the most as the protegee for toNight... It just fits too well... to be true.

Anyway and all in all, that is not probably enough for me to vote either of them as losing one of them as an innocent on Day1 would be bad and that kind of teamwork would be too open even for them. But if I die soon I can at least say "I told you so" later.

I'll be back in a short while with some more general thoughts about our situation as how I see it.

EDIT: X'd with "Pitchie"

[McCaber]

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Very good point, sir McCobbler. For instance, the wolves could send in only one kill on a particular Night to make us lynch someone they suspect as a gifted.

For example:
Formie, Saucie, Roa, and Mith are wolves. They think Agan is the seer, so they go along with a 'guard Agan' bandwagon and the following Night send in only one kill. Poof! Instant Agan lynch, more or less.

I'm not saying the theory isn't flawed, because it certainly is. I just think that in certain circumstances it would be worth the risk. (For instance, if it was rather later in the game and we still had all four wolves I'd be willing to perhaps base a wolf case off it, and ties between guarded suspects may help in that situation. Horribly explained this bit, but it makes sense in my head, I swear.) I'm by no means suggesting we protect the people we find the most suspicious every Day, but it may prove informational at some point.

[Boromir88]

Continuing then...as a matter of aside, I really hate financial advising appointments. I mean really is it necessary to take hours to only learn you have no money?

Nienna in 28

I have no real thoughts on the day except that Mnemo's suggestion worries me. Gifteds revealing this early is never a good idea. Maybe in a few days or when we are getting desperate but not on Day One.

This looks innocent, disagrees and notes the risk of it. Plus her other post today (#92) looks good too, I just wish Nienna would step out more. You've got a smart mind, have some confidence and trust it.

So we reach Legate in #33, I think this was before the post where Nogrod points to taking a moral high-ground. Others have already brought up that the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal, but I want to look at this (bold my emphasis)...

I would not really be so hasty," he interfered, knocking the trunk of a nearby tree, "with all this talk about revelations. It is a good idea by itself, but it all depends just on good luck. Even if all worked well, if the Seer catches no Wolf in some three consequent days (see below), he or she may as well die without being of much of a real use.

What? The seer is no real use unless xe catches wolves? When did the idea that the seer needs to do our work for us happen? Ok, maybe that's rhetorical because it is always nice when the seer says "here's your wolves people." But how often does that really happen?

Most of the wolf-lynchings that happen are done by our own work and sweat, and a sprinkle of good fortune. Any information a seer gives is valuable, whether the seer knows wolves or not. Known innocents may become a night target, but it also limits the unknown number, thus increasing our chances to lynch a wolf during the day. Sorry, saying the seer would be no use unless the seer has a wolf is just wrong.

Greenie in 36:

I agree with Nienna and Nerwen and Legate and who not that it would be more of a risk than a gain to reveal the Seer this early, even with the Night Guard thing. (Read Legate's post for my train of thoughts, for he put it far clearer than I could have. ) Actually I'm feeling a bit worried about Mnemo at the moment - or rather, wondering whether I should be. It just popped into my mind that a wolf might like to try and get the Seer out in the open as soon as possible.

Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?

And that's about all I feel like commenting on, or what hasn't been said/who hasn't been pointed out. For, I concur with Nogrod about Lommy objecting because it would be unfair to the wolves. Although, sally hints at the same thing, and I really don't find her suspicious. I just wish ye both would get out of your heads that we have to play nicely with the wolves. Of course there are always certain things off limit, as meta-gaming reasons, but look these are the weapons we've been given to work with...let's try to use them. Don't do the wolves work for them, let them figure out how they want to beat whatever plans we come up with.

Edit: crossed with Kit and on.

[Nogrod]

Just to avoid any false attacks by the wolves I'll open with this statement I (and many others) have already made: the seer is solely responsible for her/his choices. What we others can and should do is to give her/him some food for thought to base / help her/his decisions on. There are so many voices around here... for good and for evil.


But how I see this is the following.

Premise 1.
Having a continuos protection for the seer from Day1 on would be absolutely great for us - and absolutely horrible for the wolves.

Premise 2.
The plan is not "certain". For...

2.1.
We can only protect the seer every Night as long as the ranger lives.

2.2.
The wolves can "counter-reveal" making it hard for us to choose between the two.

2.3.
As it is said that there are some secret roles, there is a possibility one of them might spoil the plan (although there is no cobbler which would have ruined the plan from the very beginning).

Premise 3.
Every villager hopes for the best of the village according to their understanding of the situation. The wolves need to consider whether to try openly to contest the best of the village trying to steer the opinions towards their favour or whether to go along with it to look good.

3.1.
It's not always self-evident what is for the best of the village - especially with some new rules / set-ups for the game.

3.2.
Intelligent wolves can make the difference and make the villagers to act against the good of the village despite their good intentions.

Postulate to 3.
We need to discuss it so that as many as possible would have as much information possible of the different views to form their own ideas about the best for the village.


Blah... it was fun as long as I had energy to continue... but it starts to feel like a bit too work-a-holic -way of doing this.

So I'll just make my "deductions" from these premises in a fairly normal post in a short while...


EDIT: Oh my! Since when you all started to post?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I have to vote now– and alas! I have no time to sing you a farewell song!

No? Blast. I was quite looking forward to it. Give us an extra one toMorrow. Just not one about wolves.
Can't say as I have anything solid at this point as regarding suspicions. However, I'll go ahead with this:

++ Guard Boro

I thought of Legate, but I'd like Boro to stick around another Day, and not get up to mischief if I'm wrong about him.

As for the lynch vote...

Think I'll have to go with Kitanna. I don't care for the reasoning of her vote on Brinn.

++ Kitanna

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)



I don't agree with Kit's reasoning for guarding Hakon. If she's innocent, it's not the best strategy (in my opinion it's better to protect people who aren't simply MIA, though I'm sure Hakon has a reason) although she does have a point about tendencies in wolf kills. (I actually guarded Mnemo because I know how unpredictable wolves can be if they like, so I don't put anything past anyone.) If she (Kit, that is) is guilty, however, there's a couple explanations.

It could be a throwaway on a packmate, thinking no one will follow her and so Hakon's activity won't get blocked. Dangerous, but you never know.
It could be a throwaway on an innocent, thinking no one will follow her and someone will believe the above. Makes a bit of sense to me, actually.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from a packmate (Legate?) so her furry friend(s) can kill at full capacity. Makes a lot of sense, but may be too obvious.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from someone she would like to kill toNight, a hope of getting people to vote Hakon so they don't try to protect X/Y. Also makes sense but wolves are flexible if they have to be so I don't like this one quite as much.
(By the same token maybe she thinks people will try to protect someone who's not been guard voted yet but who she thinks would be a usual choice. This theory could work for either of the last two.)

The thing is the I don't think a wolf Kit would guard a wolf Hakon and intend for him to actually be guarded; you can do your own maths on that one. So if Kit turns out to be a wolf down the line I'm going to say that either she's being tricksy or Hakon's innocent.

Need a drink (because you totally care, of course!) and to do some laundry. Back in a while.


EDIT: x'd since Shasta's vote