Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

I have been actually thinking about the same at first, but it sounded too good and too advantageous to be true. Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

But it indeed seems - or at least you support me in thinking so - that if we have 4 WWs and Guard one of them, there will be only one kill per Night. Isn't it a bit strong? Well, maybe (though it could be argued that we have little chance to pick and guard a Wolf early on, and later on, again, we will probably have only three WWs, so not much of a difference). But indeed, in the beginning, it might be interesting to try to vote for some "ambiguous" players and thus see if we can either protect a person or with good enough luck nail a totally unsuspicious Wolf. Let's not overdo it, however, as by protecting a Wolf, we are sort of throwing away the tool to keep alive those players to whom we trust, which is the main point of this Guard thing. I think at least after we have just 3 Wolves it loses its sense to guard people who we think are Wolves. (Although, still we'd protect them from communicating with their packmates, but then - well, not that important in comparison to protecting somebody, I think, although it would be a nice experiment to create nice havoc among the Wolves Still, as we don't know who is the Wolf, and if we knew, we'd probably rather lynch him than protect him, I think it's a bit pointless.)

Enough of rant, anyway, conclusion from this: I am really wondering about voting to protect Lommy then, like I said already above with the same reasons. But I'll see - I'll probably be gone now for a while, but hope to post at least once to vote before the DL, and see what's up. Till then, probably...

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo