TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them? - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Thinlómien · 08-21-2009, 03:55 AM

Wait!

I checked the rules.

Durelin's pick might have been the bear (or the cobbler?) and she would still have died alone.

So, in fact, the bear who killed her needed not have been worried about dying in the process of eliminating her. In which case, there's no point in speculating who would have dared to kill her and who not. And even if we managed to figure out her pick, they could still be the bear or the cobbler.

Darn it.

Thinlómien · 08-21-2009, 04:13 AM

clues to identity:
has killed Hakon, Brinniel, Shasta and Durelin
has not been lynched yet

Okay... based on this, I would say the bear is at least somewhat experienced player (since he's not got a nervous breakdown or revealed himself yet and whether purposefully or not, he has managed to kill two gifteds) who favours careful tactics (all the kills are rather trail-less except for Durelin, who leads trails to half of the village). This might be crappy logic too, but I think a newer-player bear would sympathise with other newer players and would thus be unlikely to kill Hakon on Night2 - likewise, an old-timer bear would sympathise with other old-timers and not kill anyone he has a long history with on Night2.

This profilisation gives me three names: Form, Mac and Nerwen. Nessa and autume would probably have sympathised more with a fellow ww-novice, I'm not sure (no offense!) if Mira or Nienna would yet manage this smooth and effective game as lonely killers and Sally would probably be considerably more jumpy if everybody else in this game was her enemy (

).

Form, Mac or Nerwen? It is easy for me to choose, because Form has strcuk me as bearish since Day2. Mac is a worthwhile option, but I'm not ready to go lynching him based on this, especially as Form is still alive. Nerwen doesn't seem too bearish because a bear would probably be more actively hunting wolves during the Days to look more innocent and to be rid of his arch eenemies before it's too late. Also, I believe that Nerwen could have been a bit more surprising in her kill choices if she was the bear.

Thinlómien · 08-21-2009, 04:21 AM

clues to identity:
their mate was Alona
they have attacked Lari, phantom, person x and Rikae

The wolves strike me as bolder than the bear and I really really would like to know whom they tried to attack on Night4. It is very difficult to draw a pattern of their kills, but I would say they're killing innocent-looking people. But is there something else? Did they choose Rikae because as a hunter she would probably not have picked any of them? (Since, if they were merely trying to kill someone generally considered innocent, why not Mac or Durelin instead?) I don't unfortunately have the time (at least now) to go through Rikae's posts from yesterDay, but if someone'd do that, it would be great.

Hmph, seems like this profilisation is bound to end up as a mere stump. Macalaure is the only one whom I don't suspect for wolvery at all (possibly because he promised to kill me on Night2 next time he's a wolf

).

Thinlómien · 08-21-2009, 04:28 AM

Before I forget: here are yesterDay's votes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by the evil butterfly

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> Autume
Rikae --> Nienna
Form --> Morm
-- Rikae --> Nienna
Morm-->Form
-- Morm --> Form
Autume --> Nienna
Nienna --> Morm
Durelin --> Nienna
Morm --> Nienna
Rikae --> Nienna
Sally --> Morm
--Mac --> Form
Mac --> Nienna
-- Durelin --> Nienna
Durelin --> Form

Morm 5, Nienna 4, Form 2, Autume 1

Of those alive, Mira's and Form's votes look the worst to me. I talked about Mira's vote already, and Form seems to be latching into a duel with morm without considering other options, which is rather counter-productive if he's innocent. Nerwen's and Autume's votes may be worth looking at too.

Thinlómien · 08-21-2009, 04:31 AM

I have to go now. I'm 95% sure I'll be back, but in case I won't be, here's my vote

++Formendacil

I'll be surprised if he turns out innocent.

I may change my vote when I come back, but I doubt I will do that for any other reason than being in a situation where a vote for Form is a throwaway one.

Hope to see a lot of posts when I return!

Macalaure · 08-21-2009, 07:48 AM

I don't like Lommy right now. Her first list seems made up. There is no real analysis of votes, and only profiling over the kills, which is nice, but lacking in case of the wolves. There is no mention of an increased likelihood of wolves among the morm-waggoners (Mira's "throwaway" is really your greatest problem?), and apart from Form (of who I still don't understand why she was so easy to be convinced of by me yesterDay), she only suspects non-morm-voters Autume and Mira. In fact, she defends the morm-voters by saying that she might've voted him, too. She still hasn't explained why morm ended up so high in her list based on her previous analysis, for it maketh no sense.

She seems less beary and more wolfy or cobblery right now, because her posts toDay seem to try to mislead.

It really sucks that the baddies (and we) stole all of the three people I trusted.

Nerwen · 08-21-2009, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't like Lommy right now. Her first list seems made up. There is no real analysis of votes, and only profiling over the kills, which is nice, but lacking in case of the wolves.

But flattering, at least for me...

08-21-2009, 03:55 AM	#1
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Wait! I checked the rules. Durelin's pick might have been the bear (or the cobbler?) and she would still have died alone. So, in fact, the bear who killed her needed not have been worried about dying in the process of eliminating her. In which case, there's no point in speculating who would have dared to kill her and who not. And even if we managed to figure out her pick, they could still be the bear or the cobbler. Darn it. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-21-2009, 04:13 AM	#2
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Profile: The Bear clues to identity: has killed Hakon, Brinniel, Shasta and Durelin has not been lynched yet Okay... based on this, I would say the bear is at least somewhat experienced player (since he's not got a nervous breakdown or revealed himself yet and whether purposefully or not, he has managed to kill two gifteds) who favours careful tactics (all the kills are rather trail-less except for Durelin, who leads trails to half of the village). This might be crappy logic too, but I think a newer-player bear would sympathise with other newer players and would thus be unlikely to kill Hakon on Night2 - likewise, an old-timer bear would sympathise with other old-timers and not kill anyone he has a long history with on Night2. This profilisation gives me three names: Form, Mac and Nerwen. Nessa and autume would probably have sympathised more with a fellow ww-novice, I'm not sure (no offense!) if Mira or Nienna would yet manage this smooth and effective game as lonely killers and Sally would probably be considerably more jumpy if everybody else in this game was her enemy (). Form, Mac or Nerwen? It is easy for me to choose, because Form has strcuk me as bearish since Day2. Mac is a worthwhile option, but I'm not ready to go lynching him based on this, especially as Form is still alive. Nerwen doesn't seem too bearish because a bear would probably be more actively hunting wolves during the Days to look more innocent and to be rid of his arch eenemies before it's too late. Also, I believe that Nerwen could have been a bit more surprising in her kill choices if she was the bear. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-21-2009, 04:21 AM	#3
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Profile: The Remaining Two Wolves clues to identity: their mate was Alona they have attacked Lari, phantom, person x and Rikae The wolves strike me as bolder than the bear and I really really would like to know whom they tried to attack on Night4. It is very difficult to draw a pattern of their kills, but I would say they're killing innocent-looking people. But is there something else? Did they choose Rikae because as a hunter she would probably not have picked any of them? (Since, if they were merely trying to kill someone generally considered innocent, why not Mac or Durelin instead?) I don't unfortunately have the time (at least now) to go through Rikae's posts from yesterDay, but if someone'd do that, it would be great. Hmph, seems like this profilisation is bound to end up as a mere stump. Macalaure is the only one whom I don't suspect for wolvery at all (possibly because he promised to kill me on Night2 next time he's a wolf ). __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-21-2009, 04:31 AM	#5
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Lucky number 7 I have to go now. I'm 95% sure I'll be back, but in case I won't be, here's my vote ++Formendacil I'll be surprised if he turns out innocent. I may change my vote when I come back, but I doubt I will do that for any other reason than being in a situation where a vote for Form is a throwaway one. Hope to see a lot of posts when I return! __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-21-2009, 07:48 AM	#6
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	I don't like Lommy right now. Her first list seems made up. There is no real analysis of votes, and only profiling over the kills, which is nice, but lacking in case of the wolves. There is no mention of an increased likelihood of wolves among the morm-waggoners (Mira's "throwaway" is really your greatest problem?), and apart from Form (of who I still don't understand why she was so easy to be convinced of by me yesterDay), she only suspects non-morm-voters Autume and Mira. In fact, she defends the morm-voters by saying that she might've voted him, too. She still hasn't explained why morm ended up so high in her list based on her previous analysis, for it maketh no sense. She seems less beary and more wolfy or cobblery right now, because her posts toDay seem to try to mislead. It really sucks that the baddies (and we) stole all of the three people I trusted. Last edited by Macalaure; 08-21-2009 at 08:10 AM.