TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Formendacil]

Okay, going to be bedtime soon (it's 10:00 pm), so this will be my last post for the night. No serious analysis now, just impressions.

For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up).

In the meantime, my first impressions of Day 3 have three names: Morm, Rikae, and Sally, who seem to be in a little suspicion circle all of their own. It's Day 3, so we're about right on time for the former two to suspect me, so that's no huge surprise from this quarter. Beyond that, Rikae seems to be more excited than usual--a Wolf/Bear that saw something too close to the line yesterday? and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm. Sally doesn't seem so much suspicious as clueless, but that could make her a Cobbler, or a gut-instinct Bear.

autume and Alona are both around, it seems. Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates? and autume feels like she's trying to hard to be agreeable.

I'll probably back if there's much cross-posting, but the energy is flagging and the laundry is done.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm.

I was thinking the same thing. I was going to mention that we need to look at morm as well toDay.

[Macalaure]

My first idea was, that the mass-retractions were caused by Alona being a wolf and their comrades trying to save her. The scenario fits perfectly on the first look: 4 minutes before the deadline, tp chucks in the vote that puts Alona's name into the hat. Lommy and Sally are scared to retract right away, because it would make them look suspicious, and they wait til the last second for somebody else to do the job. Unfortunately, both admit that they want to save Alona, and that's simply not something a wolf does that openly when she desperately wants to save a fellow.

I do wonder, though, why Alona waited til the last minute to retract to save herself, so Alona's still a possible baddie for me, but probably not together with Sally and Lommy. Then again, reading morm's posts and her replies, Sally is still suspicious independently.

I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow). Shasta, Nessa, and Nienna I need to look closer at, too, because I don't know what to think of them.


Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen.

[satansaloser2005]

Actually, Mac, Nerwen looks really quite shiny to me. Then again, no one should look shiny, so her lack of suspicion is suspicious to me. Does that make sense?

(To clarify, Nerwen normally makes me uncomfortable but this game I can't come up with a single thing that makes me suspect her. Playing with Rudolph? Am I losing it? Or is she innocent? Right now, I'm going for the last one.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by autume98

I believe Dun is Durelin.

Originally Posted by Rikae

It was decided Dun...but mostly for whatever reason I type out Inziladun, or Inzil, or Dun, or some variant. [/I]

Well, as long as you knew who she was voting for... I tend to call Inziladun Zil, or Inzil.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen.

You're wrong, but I'm flattered.

EDIT:X'd with Alona.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.

And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

My first idea was, that the mass-retractions were caused by Alona being a wolf and their comrades trying to save her. The scenario fits perfectly on the first look: 4 minutes before the deadline, tp chucks in the vote that puts Alona's name into the hat. Lommy and Sally are scared to retract right away, because it would make them look suspicious, and they wait til the last second for somebody else to do the job. Unfortunately, both admit that they want to save Alona, and that's simply not something a wolf does that openly when she desperately wants to save a fellow.

I waited until the last minute because there were still several people that had to vote - and in the end my nerves got the better of me. A newbie thing, I'm afraid. I keep on having to tell myself to calm down, it's just a game. But really, I don't see Sally as being suspicious - or Lommy, for that matter. Maybe that's because I haven't played with them enough, or that Sally's not acting like she did at all last game when she was a wolf. And that's not because they voted to save me. My one retraction was enough to save me, and we all posted at the same time.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow). Shasta, Nessa, and Nienna I need to look closer at, too, because I don't know what to think of them.

I'm more wary of autume. Form I can't get a read on, but that's probably because I haven't played with him enough to know how to read him. autume seems to agree with everyone, almost as if it's a conscious effort not to make waves and draw attention to herself.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen.

We definitely are. I'm really baffled by the bear. It doesn't help that I've never played in a game with a bear, but still. Your gut feeling is interesting - Nerwen's been so under my radar, I fear she's in another universe altogether at the moment.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by alonariel

I'm more wary of autume. Form I can't get a read on, but that's probably because I haven't played with him enough to know how to read him. autume seems to agree with everyone, almost as if it's a conscious effort not to make waves and draw attention to herself.

I don't mean to be agreeing with everybody. It's just that so far I haven't really had anything to disagree with. I've decided to give you my thoughts below.

As for the last minute voting yesterDay. It really makes sense for alona to save herself. After closer inspection sally did say she would break up a tie. So her switching her vote makes sense.

I'm not sure why Lommy switched her vote. I never really saw her give a reason. Just mentioned that alona should be grateful. I've never played with her before so I don't know her very well.

Rikae doesn't really seem to be a baddie to me.

morm has raised some of my flags. At some point in time today I'm going to have to go back and analyze morm. I'd do it this morning, but I'm not going to have enough time before I have to leave for work.

Everyone else is flying under my radar as well. Which makes me think that some of the baddies are those that haven't spoken much. However it'd be highly unlikely that they ALL aren't speaking. Which means that I've got plenty of analyzing to do today.

People I'd like to analyze today because they are flying below my radar: Nessa, Nerwen, and Mac.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow).

Well after sealing the Seer's fate I didn't want to make another newbie mistake like that again. So I decided to see where an experienced player stood on the issue.

I also thought Inzil's vote suspicious. So I decided to do what I thought was best.

[Thinlómien]

As for my vote - Alon was pretty neutral on my books while Inzil was slightly (but only slightly) suspicious. I was mentally prepared to retract from Shasta to Inzil in order to save morm. I even wrote that post: "--Shasta, ++Inzil, Morm should be grateful." And that grateful comment came because morm and I have old rivalries so it would be quite extraordinary for me to save him. Then, the situation changed quickly and I just replaced morm's name with Alona's without thinking much and posted it. That's it for those who have asked.

Then, the kills. I believe phantom was killed because he seemed like a seer dream and possibly also because he is a dangerous opponent (mayhaps he was getting too close to the truth with Shasta and/or Rikae and they decided to eliminate him with the seer-dream cover?) Brinn, then. I don't know why people find it so surprising. You can't expect a pattern based on one single kill. I think Brinn was possibly picked for suspected wolvishness or giftedness, and probably at least for being improbable wolf kill. (Hmm, don't ask why she'd be an improbable wolf kill. Probably because she had come under more suspicion than many others.)

I don't like the way Form speculates about the bear kills. It looks like he's been thinking of bear tactics far too much for his own good, which could point at him being the bear himself, or possibly being a wolf.

I get weird vibes of Autume. She seems somehow very reserved and defensive and agreeing with people. But I don't know if it's just her style, I've never played with her before.

Morm - to me, Rikae is a big questionmark. I suspect her to some extent, but then again she has this big innocence show going on and claims she wouldn't do this and that as a wolf and accuses people for thinking that she's either stupid or evil and calculating if they suspect her of something like that, so I'm not sure. Sally seems to be very much like her usual self, she tends to be jumpier (mmh she actually is a bit jumpy now but not as jumpy as she tends to be a wolf) and more careful when being a wolf. So I'm not sure about her either but she's leaning innocent.

Alona's use of smileys is kind of disturbing. Greenie has complained to me before for suspecting her on grounds like that, but really, the overt use of smileys - especially sad smiley, normal smiley and eek smiley - or using them in wrong places gives a dishonest or trying-to-please impression, and that's what Alona is doing now.

Originally Posted by Autume

Thanks for clearing that up. Sorry Lommy!

No problem.

I'm going to work now, but I'll be back in some five hours. See you all!


edit: xed with Autume

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Alona's use of smileys is kind of disturbing. Greenie has complained to me before for suspecting her on grounds like that, but really, the overt use of smileys - especially sad smiley, normal smiley and eek smiley - or using them in wrong places gives a dishonest or trying-to-please impression, and that's what Alona is doing now.

Here we go again. Sorry if it makes me seem over eager or eager to please. I really think it's just turning out to be my style of play...but if it bothers you that much (like Nerwen's backwards writing or something), then I'll lay off the smlieys.

Okay, I'm off to school. I'll be back around 1pm pst to post.

PS: I go crazy with smileys on AIM, too.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by autume98

Well after sealing the Seer's fate I didn't want to make another newbie mistake like that again. So I decided to see where an experienced player stood on the issue.

I also thought Inzil's vote suspicious. So I decided to do what I thought was best.

Wow! This increases your credibility in my book, this and this post alone assuaged all my misgivings of you . This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.

Oh, but I better not suspect you too much otherwise Sally-wolf may find it 'suspicious' that somebody else has strong suspicions and the two of you would suspect me further for the simple reason of suspecting you.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Wow! This increases your credibility in my book, this and this post alone assuaged all my misgivings of you . This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.

I was just telling you why I did what I did. Not really sure what I did to make me your prime suspect.

Edit Xed with alona

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by autume98

I was just telling you why I did what I did. Not really sure what I did to make me your prime suspect.

First, I never said you were my prime suspect and second just because you 'explained' why you did what you did does not make you innocent.

I saw this but didn't comment last night

Originally Posted by Sally

Yeah, sorry about that. I get antsy when I'm not well and I was already a bit ticked about the accusation so I went a bit nuts. And I'm sure your pack is chuckling at me as we speak. Do tell them hello for me toNight, will you?

I found it interesting last night after I gave the line about Sally's pack mates wanting her to calm down she seemed to have done so. After this post she went on only to light conversation about the nicknames and then signed off. It strikes me as very strange that she would do this, almost as if she took the advice I proffered.

Rikae, your Nerwen remark is interesting. I think there is merit in it. I would like investigate this further though I fear there are some time constraints as this is my first day back to work after a week off.

[Rikae]

Alona, earlier you seem to have said that Lommy and/or Sally was not trying to save you, since their votes crossed with yours? That doesn't make sense - if their votes *hadn't* crossed with yours, the fact that yours saved yourself would speak in their favor, but since they crossed, it doesn't make any difference.
Lommy's explanation for the "grateful" comment sounds believable enough, although there is still something that makes me uneasy about her.
I think the trio of Sally/autume/Alona just has to contain at least one wolf - I have a feeling knowing one of their roles would help sort out the others.

EDIT: X'd with Morm. EDIT again: "her" not "he" for Lommy.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Wow! This increases your credibility in my book, this and this post alone assuaged all my misgivings of you . This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.

Near top does not mean prime.

Yet you seem jumpy so I am glad to know of it. My vote is going to Autume or Sally.

[Rikae]

Look what Rikae writes! It is young, it is tender, it is nice! Read it!

Suspicious

alonariel- For reasons given yesterDay (seems to be trying to win people over, inconsistent) plus people seem to be protecting her. Seems to be using newness as a bit of a shield.
autume- Not making a lot of sense (although could be newbieness to blame), going with the flow overmuch, odd interactions with Sally and Alona.
sally- Both unsubstantial and touchy, weak and misleading defense re: vote, seems to be protecting alona.

Hard to read:
Durelin- She's posted very few times, although they were longish posts. There doesn't seem to be anything our of the ordinary, but she is capable of doing that as a wolf, so no read.
Formendacil- He seems to be staying outside the hotter debates and not particularly commiting himself to anything. A bit cautious.
Lommy- Something about her makes me uneasy, although her vote-switching defense looks honest so I no longer suspect her as much for *that* reason, anyway.
Mira- Seems excited, very involved, although slippery. Could be first-time baddieism or simply an extra effort to play well.

Under radarish:

Nerwen- Nothing she said really stuck, somehow. Lots of joking.
Nessa- I feel like she's trying to stand outside of the discussion, while poking at people to stir up annoyance and debate. Doesn't seem to be really *playing* the game, somehow.
Nienna- Very low-key and noncontroversial, seems either overwhelmed by RL or hiding from the spotlight.
Shasta- Definitely cast in shadows, that's all I can say.

Leaning innocent:
Macalaure- I'm more confident of his innocence than anybody.
morm- Controversial, aggressive, but feels honest and mormlike.
Rikae- Well, actually I'm confident of my innocence, too.

Of course, even if all my "suspicious" people are evil, this means I'm unsure about or trusting at least two baddies. Better look more closely...
Also, way too many people are under the radar for this point in the game. That's one thing that I dont' like about Nessa's comment on division: if anything, there are too many people in this village who haven't come under any scrutiny. Everybody should feel some pressure at some point, just to see how they react. Even if we don't catch the wolves, the least we could do is make them earn the win, instead of coasting there in the shadows!

[Nienna]

Day One

47 - banter… will need to vote early because she may not be around

51, 59, 65, 68, 76, 79, 82, 85, 87, 89, 91, 93, 96, 108, 111, 114, 122 - banter

72 - thinks Hakon looks fishy… too eager

98 - explains to Phantom that baddies can leave clues as well

102 - agrees with Phantom but says that she thinks that if gifteds were going to leave clues they would do it anyway and if they weren’t then his advice probably falls on deaf ears

104 - feels that if the wolves want to fake reveal then there is nothing really that the gifteds can do about it, but they can try

106 - still talking about codes - thinks that if you leave a code and you die your code dies too but if you leave obscure enough hints someone might catch on

109 - A hunter’s logical picks can help the village if they know them

218 - Hints should be obscure, early deadline isn’t going to work, surveys were confidential, Hakon seems ‘undevious’, bear discussion: if given the option we should lynch the bear first, explains things to Hakon, we can’t control the bear, doesn’t like Day One, is most suspicious of Hakon, says that if she is a bear she would want to kill the wolves but says that since she is ordo that is of no consequence, Hakon should drop the bear thing before she votes for him, enjoys Morm’s vote and retraction and vote again for Hakon

219 - wants to talk about something un-bear related

223 - threatens to vote for anyone else to discuss the bear

253 - Phantom’s a nutjob

259 - thinks Phantom’s suggestion that people vote for Fea is weird

274 - refuses to discuss surveys, offers herself up for lynching if it will save a gifted, votes Hakon

281 - really doesn’t want to talk about surveys

300 - thinks Hakon is by far the most suspicious so retracts and locks in her vote for Hakon

458 - trusts Phantom in RL so that may bleed into game but she is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, has no feelings about the newbies, Rikae scares her, thinks Pitchwife’s vote for her screams wolf

464 - Pitchwife is bothering her but she can’t change her vote so she is just letting everyone else know

469 - thinks Pitchwife is more concerned with the way votes make him look than the actual vote count


Day Two

544 - thinks that Pitchwife’s vote for her Day One might have been a hint because she was offering herself up if it was to save a gifted

547 - clarifies for Zil that she locked in her vote for Hakon because she was pretty sure he was the most suspicious at the time

551 - wonders why the bear picked Hakon and wishes people to discuss it while she is sleeping

628 - explains that she locked in her vote because she didn’t think she was going to be back for deadline and didn’t want people wondering if she was going to retract, list with Morm being the only one suspicious, votes Morm because he was saying that it was stupid to vote for Hakon and yet he voted for Hakon as well.

651 - agrees with Mac and is willing to look at Zil again

668 - offers herself up on the lynching pile

673 - won’t die just to satisfy Phantoms bloodlust but will if it saves a gifted

699 - rather not have a tie

703 - Phantom song: It seems she is suspicious of Rikae, Autume, and Shasta?... though I’m not sure… and now that I look ahead this might just have been for the song to make sense

711 - thinks Morm and Zil are suspicious and that Zil is just screaming at to be voted

716 - asks Phantom what he thinks of Morm and Zil

721 - wants Phantom to be innocent

724 - thinks she is going to have to take a look at Shasta at some point but won’t be voting for him

764 - retracts for Morm and changes to Zil who she thinks is more suspicious than Alona


Day Three

775 - is going to pull up Brinns posts

785 - explains that she wanted to break the tie that is why she changed to Zil

791 - wonders if Rikae seems a bit eager to suspect her

794 - still suspects Morm

797 - allows Rikae to suspect her as long as it is done for good reason

802 - suspects Morm because he is grasping at straws and for looking for guilt where there is none

806 - defends herself, is going to analyze Alona as well because she is looking suspicious

809 - calls Morm a wolf

837 - Nerwen looks shiny to her (which I assume means innocent)


It is really nice being able to see all a person posted and go through it step by step. To me Sally is not looking particularly wolfish. Her constant offering herself up for lynching is sort of weird but that might just be her being a nice ordo… it could also be her trying to seem like a nice ordo. Her changing her vote to get rid of the tie seems fine to me. She did state many times before she changed that both Morm and Zil looked suspicious so breaking a tie in favor of someone she finds suspicious seems fine.

What does worry me just a little is how she begins suspect people just based on others suspicions not necessarily anything that said person did to deserve these suspicions. If that doesn’t make sense I can clarify. For me Sally is probably about ¾ of the way up on my suspicion list. I’d like to hear what others think of her as well.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up).

This goes for me too. I'll see what I can do about posting at work, but I make no promises. Oh and it'll be closer to 4 hours before the deadline for me. But I will be here. Now it's off to bed seeing as it's 11:30 here.