TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Formendacil]

Okay...

So.

We killed our Seer. That's just lovely. Well, what can we learn from this?

*blinks*

That is a LOT of Day 1 to look at. Even cutting out the extraneous half dozen pages of mere banter, a lot of serious and interesting discussion took place, and the vote-record is, I'm thinking, possibly richer than usual for potential analysis.

Just a few thoughts for now--it's already tomorrow in my timezone.

First of all... Rikae has suggested lynching the phantom. I'm of two minds on this... First of all, not knowing the phantom's role, I tend to be extremely wary of him, so lynching him just to be clear of things has a really nice ring to it--and Rikae makes a plausible case, at least, about his failing to save Pitchwife, though clearly thinking him innocent.

On the other hand... normally I find myself alone in wanting the whole phantom question to solve itself and go away. So... I'm a bit leery. To her credit, Rikae is an old hand at this, and capable of being sensible, so it's not a surprise at all that, if someone else is going to get the anti-phantom bug, it'd be someone like her. Morm is also an old hand of that sort, and he, too, seems somewhat convinced.

So I'm spooked... normally I'm alone in seeing sense--or nonsense--where the phantom is concerned.

A second thought regards the kills... not much of a thought really... namely that we know the bear killed Hakon and the wolves killed Lari. Okay, so that's not exactly a revelation, but it's after midnight in my world (yes... I know... I have a touch of a cold even yet and should be abed....) and I'm trying to reason this through. Basically, it follows from this that, if we are able to figure out who was responsible for a particular kill, we'll be able to figure out if that's a Wolf or a Bear. And... that's as far as I got.

(Real Life Note: I'm at my parents now, for the weekend, for my Dad's 50th birthday party/extended family get-together. This may or may not affect my participation. Insofar as my family isn't all that stupendous, I expect I'll be online enough to contribute, but no promises... I did, after all, bring beer.

[satansaloser2005]

Braving the pain for a moment, I'd like to leave you something to think about.

Why would the bear kill Hakon, when (as I pointed out earlier) a few people, myself included, thought he could be the bear? If it was me I'd love to leave someone around who looked suspicious (which is I think why I don't get Night killed most of the time) so attention would be drawn away from myself. So what in the name of Joss Whedon (♥) was the bear thinking? Was it random? Did they, as someone's pointed out recently, think that Hakon had perhaps picked them out? Did they fancy him for the seer? Was it just to mess with our heads?


Discuss lots while I'm gone. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

And with that, sorry I can't be more help at present but I have to go. Night!


ETA: And if Mira (or someone else for that matter) analyzed me while I was gone I'd be giddy!

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Why would the bear kill Hakon, when (as I pointed out earlier) a few people, myself included, thought he could be the bear? If it was me I'd love to leave someone around who looked suspicious (which is I think why I don't get Night killed most of the time) so attention would be drawn away from myself. So what in the name of Joss Whedon (♥) was the bear thinking? Was it random? Did they, as someone's pointed out recently, think that Hakon had perhaps picked them out? Did they fancy him for the seer? Was it just to mess with our heads?

I'm not sure if someone has answered your query already, but...

Theories:

1) I doubt (sorry, Hakon) that Hakon sniffed out the bear as early as he said he had a new suspect in mind. It was Day 1, very early, and - though I didn't want to rely on his newbie status to discount him from being crafty - I think, since we know he was an ordo, it was the case this time. This makes those that accused him of being the bear without much reason seem suspicious.

2) Killing Hakon might have been a simply trail-less kill for Day 1. In which case, we're left with pretty much nothing until Day 3.

3) S/he might have simply been annoyed with Hakon and wanted him out of the game so as not to cause the bear any more headaches. I would say that points the finger at those who were arguing with him, but I'm thinking the bear would be more sneaky - and that Boro would choose a more sneaky bear for his and wilwa's game.

4) The way Hakon was acting, by drawing so much attention - in addition to my comment as him seeming cobblerish (apologies, there) - might have made the bear think he was the cobbler. So then his strategy might be: kill off the helper, save the wolves for later, maybe?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Morm and Sally locked their votes in weirdly, wasting any chance to retract - really, both ought to explain

I locked in my vote early because I didn't expect to be back before the DL (or at least not much before it) and didn't want people worrying about whether I was going to change my vote. If I'd have known I would be back so early I probably wouldn't have locked it in. Hope that clears things up.


Sorry, but I still have that blasted headache (by the way, Nerwen, could you lay off the backwards for the rest of the Day? I read like one post of yours and the headache came back with a vengeance. Thanks!) and I have to go see my mother. Here's a quick rundown and a (possibly, though I'm not promising) placeholding vote, in case I fall asleep later or just can't get back to the Downs.

Phantom seemed reasonable, if not Phantom-esque, yesterDay, and toDay he seems to be enjoying rubbing our noses in it. Can't blame him, but....meh. Goes on the innocent list, for now at least.

Formie seems innocent to me but, as he was the only person I didn't 'catch' in the last game, I'm not sure if my read on him is right.

Wilwa smells like....well, like something smelly.

Boro likes to rub his food in our face, figuratively speaking of course. LYNCH!

Nessa seems reasonable yet I'm not sure. I'll have to look at her again.

Rikae has more posts than me. This is unacceptable. Other than that I'm not sure how I feel about her, honestly.

Morm makes me squirmy. Please (no really, please) correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he vote for Hakon yesterDay? And then toDay say that it was so stupid for the rest of us to vote for Hakon? (Horrible summary, but you get the idea.) Seems....wow, it seems so very wrong. See below.

++Morm

Erm....I had something else but I lost it, so I'm just going to go. I'll hopefully be back later.


EDIT in advance: x'd since Alona and Tum's exchange

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Morm makes me squirmy. Please (no really, please) correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he vote for Hakon yesterDay? And then toDay say that it was so stupid for the rest of us to vote for Hakon? (Horrible summary, but you get the idea.) Seems....wow, it seems so very wrong. See below.

++Morm

Sally, didn't you vote for Hakon right after I'd voted for Hakon? And today, voting for Morm after I have? Could be coincidence - just curious...

[autume98]

I would also like to hear from morm for reasons Alona had mentioned earlier. Kinda curious to hear what Mira has to say about for reasons that have been pointed out earlier. However I think both of them said that they would be busy.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Sally, didn't you vote for Hakon right after I'd voted for Hakon? And today, voting for Morm after I have? Could be coincidence - just curious...

Heh. Honestly, I didn't even realize you'd voted for Hakon yestderDay, if I remember correctly. (And by that I mean I didn't realize it when I voted, not I didn't notice it now, of course.) And toDay....well, yeah. I think he's tricksy mehbe, so I'd have voted him regardless. Coincidence. Unless of course you've also got the powers of mind control or something. And in that case, what are you doing hanging out with us losers?


Home now (business at my mother's house so I didn't stay long) and now I shall hopefully crash, or at least escape the Downs for a while. Until later!

[Inziladun]

I probably won't be back before DL, so I must decide on my vote soon.

I have a question or two for Mormegil. I don't think he ever said why he locked in his vote for Hakon so early. Why was it necessary? He seemed to do it for spite after Hakon asked him to retract. Sally did attempt to explain why she did so, even if I don't agree with the logic. And Morm has voted for Rikae, saying Rikae and Tum should both be lynched just to clear confusion. Surely there must be a more valid reason to vote for someone by Day 2.
That said, I still don't trust Rikae. I suppose mainly what pings my radar today on her is what I've seen as an overly defensive posture at times. Seems to have cooled down lately though.

Of course, she and Morm could be Bear and Wolf for all I know.

Tum's last minute switch to Pitchwife I find hard to fault, as I was close to doing the same thing.

Mira's slip was bad, but is it worth a vote? Two already think so....

[Macalaure]

While I don't really trust him either, starting a bandwaggon against morm when he's not here to defend himself looks very much like a mistake we made just recently.

Very suspicious in this regard: Inzil. In the last post before his vote he throws a question at morm, knowing it can't be answered and thus intentionally making it an open question. The vote follows minutes after.

I'm really not sure what to think about Sally's vote for him

Again about Inzil:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Mira's slip was bad, but is it worth a vote? Two already think so....

He elegantly avoids stating whether he think it's worth a vote, leaving only a rhetoric statement creating more of an atmosphere of suspicion against Mira, since as a wolf he doesn't care much whether non-wolf morm or non-wolf Mira get lynched.

Add the things I said about him before, here's a good bandwaggon for you:

++Inziladun

[the phantom]

Some of you make me laugh. Let's see if I can sum up the situation.

"Phantom made suggestions that would benefit the innocents from the very beginning, tried to avert voting disaster with his advice and vote, was right about Pitch, was right to defend Hakon, and he's the likliest dream choice from the Seer. So... let's lynch him!"

If anyone who isn't a baddie votes for me today, Candor Man will ridicule you until the end of time.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

I mean that, if an innocent is killed, are they able to choose the details of their death and leave hints in their death as to the player they think night-killed/lynched them?

No, they're not.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Why would the bear kill Hakon, when (as I pointed out earlier) a few people, myself included, thought he could be the bear? If it was me I'd love to leave someone around who looked suspicious (which is I think why I don't get Night killed most of the time) so attention would be drawn away from myself. So what in the name of Joss Whedon (♥) was the bear thinking? Was it random? Did they, as someone's pointed out recently, think that Hakon had perhaps picked them out? Did they fancy him for the seer?

Inconceivable.

The Seer was lynched yesterDay!

For possible reasons why the bear got Hakon, see my post at #533..

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen, re: my post about Hakon and the bear

The Seer was lynched yesterDay!

Crap. I meant hunter, I think, or maybe ranger. Heck if I know, but I obviously didn't mean seer. Thanks, Nerwen, I knew I messed something up when I typed that, I just couldn't for the life of me remember what it was.


*crashes for good this time hopefully*

[the phantom]

I'm still feeling grumpy and I'm tempted to just go mum the rest of the day and show up at the deadline and attempt to tie the vote no matter who is on the chopping block, just to make Boro use his coin. I think it'd be funny to have a tie every day. Very random.

But no... I can't let myself do that. I ought to at least have a look at the voting and make some guesses. We already know that two of the top suspects were innocent, so what the vote can tell us will be limited.

Alon came under very slight threat halfway through, and so if she's guilty the Pitch voters don't look so good.

Rikae was threatened right at the deadline, so if she is guilty Tum rushing in and retracting her Hakon vote in favor of padding Pitch's lead (effectively saving Rik's skin) looks extremely suspicious.

If Alon and Rikae are both innocent then we basically don't have anything at all, except for the fact that with Hakon safely out front from the beginning the villains would be free to start wagons for different candidates.

That's all for now. I'm supposed to be waking up in a few hours. After all of my tasks are done I will return. Most likely I'll be around for large portions of the final six hours. See ya.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

I'm inclined to agree that the bear in this game might be a newbie.

I'm not sure; even an experienced player might have killed him to be on the safe side. Whether Hakon had actually spotted him or not (unlikely, given how early that post was), if the bear bought it, the rest of Hakon's bear-talk might look like an attempt at blackmail– "I know who you are, so help us out or I'll tell". (A very ill-advised attempt, mind you– anyone but a newbie would have known that was suicidal.)

This all just speculation. There are several other reasons why Hakon might have been killed. However, if I'm right about this, it would point to the bear being among the early posters.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Um... okay... Not sure why you would even say that, for a host of reasons.

*frowns and scratches head*

Well, now that's definitely out in the open... thoughts on Mira? I mean, she's hardly a newbie anymore.

EDIT:X'd with tp.

[the phantom]

Okay then... One more post before sleepy time...

Originally Posted by Mira

Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.

Originally Posted by Me

Um... okay... Not sure why you would even say that, for a host of reasons.

*frowns and scratches head*

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, now that's definitely out in the open... thoughts on Mira? I mean, she's hardly a newbie anymore.

From my point of view it doesn't look like her comment was an error. She had to have done it on purpose, due to the fact that she appears to be making rules up. I see nothing in the rules about the Seer and Ranger/Hunter PMing. Perhaps it was supposed to be some sort of trap? I dunno... No idea what to think.

[Brinniel]

YOU WILL CURSE THE DAY YOU DID NOT DO, ALL THAT THE PHANTOM ASKED OF YOU.*

But seriously, people. How could you let this happen? Any innocents who voted Pitchwife, or simply contributed towards his lynching, I hope you've given yourselves a good spanking.

After the events of yesterDay and his reaction toDay, I'm almost inclined to trust the phantom. Of course, that probably means he's evil.

Won't say much more tonight, as it is very late. I might post some in the morning and will definitely be around at some point in the evening...and I think I should be here for deadline this time.


*I just saw the show on Broadway last night and when I heard this line sung, I sensed it may become relevant to this game. So of course I just had to mention it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

From my point of view it doesn't look like her comment was an error. She had to have done it on purpose, due to the fact that she appears to be making rules up. I see nothing in the rules about the Seer and Ranger/Hunter PMing.

No, there's nothing.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Perhaps it was supposed to be some sort of trap?

Wee-elll, last game (which Mira co-modded), Hakon accidentally caused Borowolf to give himself away in just this way... but that was an extraordinary slip on Boro's part; he himself called it "the worst mistake I ever made". Surely she wouldn't think the chance of it working twice in a row outweighed the obvious risk?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Okay then... One more post before sleepy time...



From my point of view it doesn't look like her comment was an error. She had to have done it on purpose, due to the fact that she appears to be making rules up. I see nothing in the rules about the Seer and Ranger/Hunter PMing. Perhaps it was supposed to be some sort of trap? I dunno... No idea what to think.

Or she was very tired and more stupid than usual when she wrote that she has bashing her head against a wall for the past 12 hours or so. There was a game in the recent past that had the three PMing and I got confused.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Um, what? You aren't making sense - and I apologize if it's a joke, but it looks like you first concluded that I'm probably evil because I interacted a lot with the deceased, which makes no sense at all.

It was a joke.

Mira and Inzil are looking suspicious to me because I get the feeling they're hopping on the easy lynch bandwagon du jour (me) with misleading reasons (Inzil, though he backed off it when pressed) or simply bizarre reasoning which screams "I gotta come up with some suspicion, but anything will do, since everyone dislikes and wants to lynch this person already anyway".

Yeah, I'm easy to lynch because I'm hot-tempered and people don't like me personally. I know that. But I am innocent and would really like a chance to be of use to you people, so please at least consider that possibility.

Dear, I said I would probably retract my vote for you. Unless you do something super suspicious before deadline, chances are you won't be my final vote.

Ok I have to go to work now. Blah. Hopefully I don't have to come back and save myself.