Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And just in case McCaber isn't the Seer, would you say this might be the right time for the (hypothetical) real Seer to counter-reveal, or would you counsel against it?

I don't think so. If McCaber leads us astray then we know he's guilty, and if he doesn't get killed soon then we can assume he's guilty. If he isn't the real seer, unless he "reveals" the real seer as a wolf, or a wolf (who the real seer has dreamed of) as an innocent, then there is an opportunity for the seer to lay low and dream peacefully.

But this is just hypothetical. For now I think we should assume that McCaber is the real seer. If he is not dead within two Nights, then we should start getting suspicious (or it could be an elaborate plan by the wolves to make us lynch him if he was the real seer, though I don't think it would be worth it, as there would be a chance that he could reveal one of them, and later this would be proven by his death, whichever way. Wow this is a long bracket).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

For now I think we should assume that McCaber is the real seer. If he is not dead within two Nights, then we should start getting suspicious (or it could be an elaborate plan by the wolves to make us lynch him if he was the real seer, though I don't think it would be worth it, as there would be a chance that he could reveal one of them, and later this would be proven by his death, whichever way.

I can see no logical reason a Wolfcaber would have given up his fellow on the first Day. If this is a ruse devised by the wolves, it's insanely risky for them.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If this is a ruse devised by the wolves, it's insanely risky for them.

Yes, yes, that's true. But it's always best to consider all possibilities.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

If he isn't the real seer, unless he "reveals" the real seer as a wolf, or a wolf (who the real seer has dreamed of) as an innocent, then there is an opportunity for the seer to lay low and dream peacefully.

But how would we know whom of the two to trust? The same question applies to Nog's

Trying to fake for seer on the first Day would seem like quite a doomed idea as we would have our real seer around to rival that claim later.

Good morning, Lalaith, by the way, and I'm curious for your answer to Eönwe's question.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But how would we know whom of the two to trust?

We wouldn't. But if one is found to be the real seer, then we know the other to be a wolf. And that leaves us with only 1 wolf, and, if that happened at this stage there would be (with the real seer, toMorrow's "execution" and the 2 Night kills taken away from today's total) 1 wolf out of 7 people, which means we get 3 Days to get rid of the wolf.