WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Isabellkya]

Eomer huh?

Did they think he had a special role or something?
Or just looking to confuse us all around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'll be pur-loinin' a new vio-lin fer ye come next landfall, Ghostomer. 'M prob'ly the on'y scurvy dog what aperciated yer musical ability.

[satansaloser2005]

++Shasta


See, me mateys, it be a friend's birthday today (well, yesterday now) and I be going out with her tomorrow (well, today now). I not be risking th' wrath of th' capn' by not voting again, so I place me vote for me currently favorite suspect. I be willing to change it if ye can give me a new hammer and a good reason, but for now I best be heading to bed. Sleep ho!

[Nogrod]

Eomer?

Hmm, that's an interesting choice... although it fits at least one reasonable pattern. Like I've said already, the mutineers would be likely to kill by Nights people who could be sensible voters (independent-minded) but would not post much thus leaving the more talkative people to be lynched as it would fit their intentions leaving those people in the insecurity "trustwise" that follows from the lynches.

So they took Boro's explanation for Eomer's behaviour at face value and thought he was a bored ordo and would thus not help us after being dead with his "most likely a goodie"-status?

Okay. Here's my challenge to you Eomer: prove them wrong and become an active one!

I'll go and distill the potato-mash I made yesterday. Vodka on offer in just a short while!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ee, well, howdy all. It ain't so different being dead, so it seems.

Ok, first things first: I ain't barely had a moment to spare in the last few days, and nor will I in the next couple! Mayhaps I'll be freeer after that. That be why I post so little. But I ain't dropping out: long as you post once a day and vote then you've just as much a right to be here.

As for Mirandir, I honestly can't remember why I voted thatway first day; but certainly on the second day Mira's post investigating Greenie's slaying struck me as highly suspicious. Not useful but trying to give the impression of being useful. That's what I thought. Plus nothing else really struck me.

Not sure why I put it in rhyme form but it seemed a good idea at the time.

[Nogrod]

Lemme be straight with you soon again drunken bastards about the issues from yesterDay. As I’m going to pass out soon I’d like to share my thoughs on the issue.

Everytime we lynch someone we get to choose between the innocents and those vermins called mutineers. Everytime the mutineers kill someone they only kill innocents (possibly co-opsies). Now you have chosen not to try taking as many mutineers down as possible thus adding to the ratio of how many of the deaths so far are dictated only by the mutineers eg. choices that involved only innocents.

Now I see some of you arguing we win a Day for later use. Might be, might be… But that Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow is right and we only gain a phase. What follows is that gaining a phase will lead us only into a 50-50 chance of gaining a Day for voting. And whether we will have it or not will depend on how many mutineers we manage to lynch and when & whether the avenger or protector get into business. So it’s impossible to say right now.

Now it looks more likely that Mira is/was an ordinary innocent. Were she something else she probably would have not quitted on the first problem but tried to hang on (she would have had two days IRL to fix the problem – or take part in a net-café, library or by a friend or anything if not getting her computer fixed). That being quite believable, the choice is downright horrible. So you preferred to lynch someone who is more probably an innocent who would have died anyway and decided not to try lynching a mutineer in the first place! And for what? For a chance that it may affect the number of Days we can vote, or then it might not.

What would you do with a chance for extra lynching if you already have thrown away a lynching?

Okay, someone might contest what I’m saying by stating that deciding not to lynch on Day2 and exchanging that for a later lynch would be preferable as we can possibly make better educated decisions later (in this game, huh, sounds like wishful thinking to me at least at the moment). But because it’s not sure we get that “extra-lynch” in the first place I still say it was a waste of our only weapon yesterday.

The question then remains whether those who advocated Mira’s lynching were just not thinking it through or whether some of them were also malicious… Were any of them baddies in danger there at the end of the Day yesterDay? That might explain some of the enthusiasm…

Looking at the voting from yesterDay the only one looking like a possible candidate besides Eomer (who clearly is not a mutineer) would have been Annu.

Okay, one positive thing about your decision. As the lynched ones are those we will not have any clue of, it’s good Mira, who probably isn’t going to post much or at all, is the chosen one as someone must be lynched anyway and thus becomes one we have no clue of.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay, someone might contest what I’m saying by stating that deciding not to lynch on Day2 and exchanging that for a later lynch would be preferable as we can possibly make better educated decisions later (in this game, huh, sounds like wishful thinking to me at least at the moment). But because it’s not sure we get that “extra-lynch” in the first place I still say it was a waste of our only weapon yesterday.

I thought then, n' I think now: what a waste! As someone (think it were Mac) pointed out, we're always takin' the chance of killin' an innocent when we vote, n' things bein' as they be n' this game, w' no deathly reveals, I be wondrin' how it be easier later t' find the baddies than now. Cud'a had one yest'dy. along w' Mira.
N' like Nogrod said, seems like Mira likely wud'a found a way t' come back if she'd been a mutineer.
Agree t' disagree? Arrr. Maybe. But I be taken a look at them what was so hot on killin' Mira.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inzil

I be wondrin' how it be easier later t' find the baddies than now.

If it isn't, than this is nothing but a game of chance (or even worse than pure chance). We might as well all vote randomly/according to hunches and not bother talking at all.

As for what Nerwen said yesterday - yeah, we might as well have lynched Greenie instead of Mira then - I wish I'd thought of that in time. Generally, though, I'm still against double lynching on a regular basis, at least when someone was killed by the avengers. We already know that person isn't one of them, so we stand to gain relatively little knowledge from such a lynch (Mira most likely wasn't one either, but I thought it best to avoid the high risk of losing tow innocents in one Day).

Nogrod, why don't you suspect me, then? If you think those who lynched Mira are evil, well, I was the one pushing for it. Why not, then?

[Isabellkya]

So the scurvy Sally is merely looking to hammer a candidate eh?
Not exactly a thing an innocent would do.

I think at appearances, Eomer wasn't looking like a sensible voter.
At least what I recollect from those whom voted for him.
I would have to look back and check. But Nog, I don't think you can have it both ways. Either Eomer was killed because he was one whom fit the bill of being a sensible voter, or he wasn't - courtesy of your vote for him. Which I think had something to do with how he had voted. Savvy?


X'd with Nog himself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

But Nog, I don't think you can have it both ways. Either Eomer was killed because he was one whom fit the bill of being a sensible voter, or he wasn't - courtesy of your vote for him. Which I think had something to do with how he had voted. Savvy?

Bingo!

Well he can be a very sensible voter and would surely have been one as the game went on. I think everyone who has played with him knows that.

His two votes looked fishy to me (especially as he voted for the same person) and that's why I suspected him. Now as I know he was not a mutineer, things look different (and to be honest my reasons for suspecting Mira yesterDay before hearing that she would have to quit were basically the same Eomer told us toDay - and I hold them to be quite sensible suspicions - although they turned out to be wrong).

On a second subject altogether. As you all know the main target of the baddies is the seer / spy: the sooner they got her/him the better for them. Now Eomer really wouldn't be the first choice if hunting for a seer: he's act was too weird - as it almost got him lynched. So can we then deduce from that that they believe they have the spy bagged already?

If so - then whether Greenie tells the truth of being the spy or is a co-opsie trying to fool us - it would make Nerwen look more trustworthy. For surely she must be "non-mutineer" if the mutineers think Greenie could be the spy? Otherwise they'd see the discrepancy (for Nerwen would be a mutineer herself for them to be able to see Greenie lied). But in that case they would be going for the spy with all they have! And it looks like they aren't...

Well, it's not anything conclusive like nothing will be in this game. But we need to gather circumstantial evidence - or plausible hypotheses - and when we one Day have a load of them concerning one person we might start trusting that one a bit more.

[Nogrod]

Okay too much vodka in a too short a time... I think I'm going to pass out for a Day *

Sad I hadn't more time to take any detailed look on some of you guys. But I'll do it when I wake up, dead or alive. That's a promise.

My vote then:

++ Annu

For my suspicions from yesterDay (well already from Day1 to be exact) added with the "let's lynch Mira"-campaign which I still find a bit fishy. Annu being one of the mutineers would explain some of the enthusiasm there.

I'm not confident enough to vote for Boro yet: I'd hate to have him as an unknown (eg. lynched) this early in the game. Btw. that would be a kind of ingenious mutineer-tactics - even if daring. A loudmouth mutineer (there being one that is) would get her/himself lynched and then starts being overly helpful while we don't know whether s/he's a baddie or not. But we'd sure feel a bit guilty for lynching her/him because of her/his helpfulness and could be more easily persuaded to consider her/his points not knowing the advices could be our destruction in the worst case...

Hah, I'm finally getting my conspiracy-brain working!

Ahh... please help yourselves with the vodka, it's pretty raw but there's plenty of it.


* See the discussion thread.