WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Nerwen]

Greetings, all. Oh, and welcome to the "known innocent" club, Wilwa. Sorry for suspecting you.

Well, toDay has been... interesting.

I have only skimmed the thread so far (will re-read more thoroughly when I have a moment) but here are my thoughts so far:

Sally is surely a wraith.

1. If she were an innocent trying to draw fire from Nogrod she would not have named Lhuna as a baddie.

2. If her scenario– that she was the Seer and Nogrod an innocent impersonating the Seer– were correct, Nogrod would have confessed by now.

3. Everyone– apart from Nogrod– is either defending her or expressing confusion. Is it likely that not one of the wolves would take advantage of the most perfect chance to lynch an innocent in WW history?

Shasta is probably her fellow

He seems desperate to save her... and knowing he's pretty smart, I don't see how he can honestly believe his own argument. (It relies, after all, on ordo-Sally "somehow" knowing for certain that Lhuna is evil.)

Presumably, the wraith-team thought Sally was likely to be dreamed last Night, and she decided to go down fighting.

Here's the puzzle, though: why did she not accuse Nogrod of being a wraith? It seems to me that that's the only way her plan could have worked.

Did she think he would believe her a well-intentioned ordo, and go along with her in the hope of surviving another Night? But then, why say she dreamt Lhuna? (As I said, an ordo would not do this.)

And what is Lhuna?

Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)

Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself.

Or is the whole scheme simply to get an innocent Lhuna lynched, instead of guilty Sally? But again, how could it work once Sally has declared Nogrod innocent?

*brain hurting*

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
EDIT2:clarification.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I lied. I have a response to Nerwen.

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

And can I say again, I'm not "desperate to save Sally". I simply think there could be an alternate explanation to her actions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

Numbers. It's at the stage where it makes quite a difference whether a wraith gets lynched "eventually" or now.

Now, the question of Brinniel–

I don't want to jump to conclusions here, but it strikes me that #341 (while sounding quite reasonable) is consistent with what Brinn would do if the remaining wraiths were herself and Shasta:

1. Throw Sally under the bus.

2. Try to save Shasta.

3. Try to make the village focus again on Lhuna as a lynch-candidate.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.