Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Kent2010]

++Brinn (+1)

Despite the 10 bonus still remaining I would not classify her voting 'safe.' She was the deciding vote for Nienna and voted in the midst of the madness yesterday for Sally.

The safest voters have been Formendacil, Shasta, and Greenie, who still have all 10 bonus and have also a squeaky clean record (meaning they've been staying out of the action).

Formendacil:
Day 1- Nilp
Day 2- Greenie

Shasta:
Day 1- Did not vote
Day 2- Formendacil

Greenie:
Day 1- for Agan but did not count
Day 2- Nogrod

Greenie had intentions of voting for the known innocent Agan, but by technicality it did not count. The placement was early, but that could just be because of an inability to be at the deadline. Are all early votes safe? (This isn't rhetorical, I really don't know)

Then Gwath and Sally who have all 10 bonus votes, but on Day 1 voted for the known innocent Nienna. They were the 'middle votes' in the Nienna bandwagon. On Day 2 neither voted. The question I have is would a wolf not vote? I don't know how Gwath and Sally play, but even in the situation yesterday would a wolf not cast a vote? They would know Kuru was innocent and I would imagine a wolf would just tack on votes in that situation.

Particularly Gwath who expressed a desire to save Nogrod and some suspicion of Kuru...if he was a wolf, why not tack on just a single vote?

[Kent2010]

What you say makes sense in a way, but I think you are overlooking a very important thing. If the wolves all kept their bonus votes to themselves and Night-killed every innocent having bonus votes left, it wouldn't be right hard to identify them, would it?
-Greenie

But that's the problem with so many people having a vast proportion of the votes. If they start killing all the innocents with 10 votes, and we figure out the rest of the people with 10 votes by then it will be too late. The baddies will have the massive vote power and be able to control the lynchings.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Kent

Are all early votes safe?

Dunno - I'd say early voting is safe if in case you vote early even if you could be around at deadline. If you vote early because you just can't be around at deadline, however, I wouldn't call it safe voting. Safe voting, the way I think of it, is something you can choose, whereas the time zone you live in generally isn't.


EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Basically that's exactly what I'm after: I'm driving towards identifying them...

Are you for letting them to be concealed?

No, I am not. You didn't seem to get my point. My point was that if the wolves all have their 10 bonus votes left they aren't exactly likely to go around Night-killing every innocent having as much bonus votes in order to stay concealed - especially if the general consensus is that anyone having all their bonus votes left is suspicious. Therefore, it might well be that the assumption your hypothesis is based on is invalid - and, as you philosophy teacher probably know, a hypothesis based on an invalid assumption is likely to be invalid too.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally, Nog and Sally

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Therefore, it might well be that the assumption your hypothesis is based on is invalid - and, as you philosophy teacher probably know, a hypothesis based on an invalid assumption is likely to be invalid too.

Haha! Love you for that!

Sadly that's a bit more complicated than that.

A logical deduction from true premises is always valid and true. (how one assures oneself of whether the premises are true is a much more problematic question)

A logical deduction from false premises (including at least one false premise) is logically valid as well, but might be true or false in content. (eg. "Sally is a duck"; "ducks can swim" eg. "Sally can swim" - the deduction is valid and the result is probably true, but one of the premises seems false - or does it? )

But also an illogical deduction can be true in content even if it's logically not valid - even if it rarely is.

But a hypothesis is something you can test reality with by experimenting with it.

An unsuccesful result shows the hypothesis was false.

A succesful result is more open to interpretation. To some it "confirms" the hypothesis, to others it "gives credibility" to it, and to some it just "does not prove the hypothesis false" (falsify it).

[satansaloser2005]

But I'm not a duck! Or a witch! And this isn't my nose, it's a false one!


(Sorry, I couldn't resist popping in with that. Won't see me for a few hours now.)

[Isabellkya]

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.



Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.



Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

Unless I understood incorrectly, we will see that votes have been sucked (at least in the case of a living player) but not who they've gone to until that person uses them and still has the same number of votes.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.



Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

Is it just me or does someone have some explaining to do?

(Meta-game note: I'm currently having my pretty much first meal of the day, so please excuse me for a while. Thanks)


EDIT: x'd with Form. By the way, I may be a skeptic but I've considered Form fairly innocent and now that....oh, it's going to be in another post. x'd with form, etc.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Usually, she is very confident in most every thing she says - or she appears supremely confident in her words. This game, she quite frequently self doubts and fishes.

Have you ever played with me?



Okay, I know this is a bit silly but I'm going with my gut.

++Kent


Again, this is hopefully just a placeholder vote until I get back, but I'm actually getting some vibes from Kent and they're not so shiny.


Also, a list, though it's going, repeat going, to change. There are three baddies and a Grima so, if I had to parcel everyone into groups right now just based on what I'm feeling, here's how it would go.


Guilty
Kent
Lari
Izzy
Shasta

Innocent
Form
Brinn
Nog
Nilp
Fea
Green
Gwath

Again, this is just if I had to pick the four baddies, these would be my top choices at the moment based on....well, on a hunch, really, but hopefully it's a good one.

As an announcement in advance, if I'm up for lynch toDay (which wouldn't totally surprise me) and there is someone else on the block that I think is guilty, I will vote to save myself and use my bonus votes as necessary. I hope I don't have to because I'd rather have to come back and choose between the greater of two possible evils rather than a known innocent (me) and a possible/probable wolf, but as I've stated in other games, if I let myself be lynched without trying to fight back I'm doing a disservice to the village.

(Also, I can kill you with my brain. Also also, I just woke up from a nap and am leaving in half an hour, so's you all know.)


Will post this and see what's going on. In advance, x'd with everything since the post after Kent's vote.