Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Nogrod]

It's good I had a cigarette first before sending this one. I wrote quite a rant and a disclaimer of some eloquence but have now deleted it and will only say this.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

I have nothing against different tactics. No. Everyone may play as they will.

But everyone should be ready to face the consequences of not giving themselves into the game and thus being looked on as suspicious by those others who actually play or see it that way.

One may play as she wishes but she can't protest if someone thinks her guilty because of that. One should be able to play as she wishes, but also able to suspect others just the way she wishes.

Or do you want to say that playing-styles are free but ways to suspect are not?

[Nogrod]

Kuru! Are you just "a phantom" or do you have votes that count?

That would be nice to know.

[Kent2010]

I find this rather weird. If you think someone to be the seer there's no good reason to state it publicly. Maybe the wolves already picked up on it, but maybe not and you just gave it away. The fact that she feels the need to defend her statement suggesting that Agan may be the seer in that same post is even more concerning.

Though it's also possible this was a ploy and Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer when she really just believed her to be an ordo so that they would Night kill her. This scenario has occurred before. But I've never played with Firefoot before, so I don't know if she is the type of player to come up with such a ploy.
-Brinn in #383

This is peculiar, particularly that 2nd paragraph. The 1st paragraph is a typical reaction to Firefoot pointing out Agan could be the seer on Day 1. But the 2nd paragraph, yesterday is peculiar because Firefoot was killed.

Brinn's 'alternate scenario' is Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer and the wolves would target her - and that this wouldn't be the first time. I'm not quite sure what situation Brinn is referring to, but is this an early glance of the wolves discussion last night in picking Firefoot? The 2nd scenario is just odd, because how would Firefoot know Agan was not the seer, believe Agan was an ordo, and decide to set her up as the seer for the wolves to go after that night - if Firefoot was not the seer herself?

I am going under the assumption that the wolves primary person they want out of the way is the seer, so the alternate scenario is really strange considering Firefoot was killed last night.

One of my disagreements with Nilp's analysis over Firefoot's post is this:

329
Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (a comment on Kuru's 311, where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .

I have a problem with this, if the wolves believed Firefoot was the seer, and that's why she was killed, I would not just look at who she attacked (mostly Nogrod yesterday) but who she defended might be just as important. If she defended someone pretty strongly, that could also be a tip off to the wolves, making them believe Firefoot was the seer.

x'ed with Brinn and Greenie

[Kent2010]

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage.
-Brinn

That person whether wolf or innocent will most likely use their bonus to save themselves, which is I think the bigger point, to start levelling out the field.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

That person whether wolf or innocent will most likely use their bonus to save themselves, which is I think the bigger point, to start levelling out the field.

Heck no! Save your votes for when you're confident that you've got a wolf! Don't disarm!

[Isabellkya]

Just a few comments while reading.

Bonus Votes.
This talk about it not being sensible to use them unless certain the person being voted for is guilty.

We would all like to believe that we alone possess all of the control over the allotted votes we were given. False.
We can be forced into using them by others' actions. See, not always under the thumb of our control.

If you aren't going to use your bonus votes, until you are supremely sure of your choice - then what happens when everyone else is using the weight of two votes versus your one? It isn't the same scenario as previous games.

I'm not liking the interactions between Gwath and Sally. At this point in time, I will probably be voting for Sally again toDay.
Usually, she is very confident in most every thing she says - or she appears supremely confident in her words. This game, she quite frequently self doubts and fishes.

Nog, I only gave Sally three votes yesterDay. One regular and two bonus.

*Won't follow the animated corpse of Kuru around like a lemming*
*though will heed advice of suspecting everyone* xD

When am I not under the radar? Even when I do bold things, I'm under the radar.

[Isabellkya]

Further on bonus votes.
We should have all come to a collective agreement in the beginning. Ha!
Use one regular and two bonus votes a Day. Would've spread everything out equally for a five Day game. xD
Equal weight.

[satansaloser2005]

I am wondering though what would happen if, for instance....


Erm....actually I won't ask it, since it's a bit of a game mechanics question. Blast.



Anyway, I want to redo my list when I get a chance, but I know I won't have time right now. Here's a couple observations. Take them however you wish, kids.


Brinn makes me giggle, but in a 'I know how you feel, you poor girl' sort of way. I really don't want to see her go toDay because while it's possible she's guilty (which is a possibility for all of you, so that really means nothing, dang it) I'd like to hear more from her so I can get a better read on the girl.

Kent still makes me uneasy, just in general. I don't know what exactly it is, but a lot of the things he's said have made me uneasy and while I don't want to kill him just to find out what he is I'm not going to complain if he ends up dead at the end of the Day, because I keep smelling a Kent....erm, rat.

Nog seems genuine and yet at the same time I know I can't read him, so when I trust Nog completely he's generally got something up his sleeve.

I actually just looked through Izzy's posts (was looking for a quote which in the end I don't think she even said, alas) and think she may be sliding down to my innocent list. We don't exactly see eye to eye, but that doesn't mean she's evil, and after seeing a couple things she's said I'll have to give her some more thought.


Aaaand that's all I've got time for presently.

The rest I don't know right now, or at least don't have time to talk about.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I do want to respond to you Nogrod as I disagree with you and am irritated on many levels. But I have somewhere to be shortly, so it'll have to wait a few hours. Perhaps that's a good thing for you because I'm feeling extremely peeved right now. I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village? Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched. As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you.

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage. Since seven people haven't used their bonus votes yet, lynching wrongly would be very easy to do toDay.

Great...now I'm probably gonna be late for where I need to be. See, you really shouldn't mess with a girl who's PMSing right now...

[Nogrod]

Cool down Brinn, this is only a game. And you know I love you: this is pretty straightforwards, no sarcasm or smilies included.

It's only that in this game I have reasons to believe you have a role of a baddie.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village?

Now this is interesting. If you would manage to bag a wolf - what good would that be?
*Ponders about it: what good would there be of lynching a wolf toDay? Hard to see... what good would there be? *

Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched.

The baddies will probably kill those innocents with the most votes left by Nights (see Firefoot with ten votes). Also they would like to keep their votes to themselves if they need not use them - and they, unlike us - know when they need to use them. And remember that Thuringwethil may suck ten votes from an innocent the Night before the baddies decide to make their final attack if there is one. Then they will have 40-50 votes to spend on one Day which we innocents can never stand up against.

What to do?

Lynch those with ten votes - or create a general feeling that those having ten votes are the ones in the line for the gallows. Then the wolves need to discharge their votes and - especially if we get one toDay - then we may be able to breathe once more a little.

Those with ten votes are not an asset to the village, they are a threat. They may think in their individual potholes that they are the fighters for freedom but they are the harbringers of doom in many senses.

Just think there are three romantic heroes around with ten votes. One gets killed by Thurnigwethil and her/his ten extra votes are in the possession of the baddies the next Day. Then the two remaining ten-voters disagree with each other who's the wolf and vote different people. That's it. We lose. The wolves know to concentrate their votes on the "right target", we don't.

The extra votes are a threat, not an asset. The extra-votes work for the baddies, not for the village, notwithstanding how important you would feel yourself to be armed with a host of extra-votes to save yourself or to make the genious saving vote for the village. You will not be given that chance. How many times do I need to say this?

You're like these guys with a metal objects in their pocket thinking you will protect yourself and all of the others here heroically when your neighbours have those objects as well. But when some of your neighbours bring forwards a F-16 they have built together from their objects, it's over forbyou individuals only having the pieces in your hand.

But if you take off the supplies form all, then you stand a chance for a fair fist-fight.

Sorry, this romantic ideal of individuals fighting off the evil as loners doesn't work here any more than it does in reality. The baddies work as a collective and they can decide on the spot with all the knowledgwe and communication between themselves how to use their votes. We can't.

As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you.

Calm down, will you? If you're innocent we need your calm decision, not you proving how "decisive" you can be.

But you should actually convince us - well me at least - why what I said about your actions in the end of Day2 are not true to begin with. Getting angry or hurt is one way of trying to do it but I have seen such shows that this is not quite enough (remember Rikae back then really bringing all of us others to tears with her show - but many enough of us stood firm and lynched her, as the baddie she turned out to be).

EDIT: X'd with Izzy x2

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

The baddies will probably kill those innocents with the most votes left by Nights (see Firefoot with ten votes). Also they would like to keep their votes to themselves if they need not use them - and they, unlike us - know when they need to use them.

What you say makes sense in a way, but I think you are overlooking a very important thing. If the wolves all kept their bonus votes to themselves and Night-killed every innocent having bonus votes left, it wouldn't be right hard to identify them, would it?

Originally Posted by Nog

Lynch those with ten votes - or create a general feeling that those having ten votes are the ones in the line for the gallows. Then the wolves need to discharge their votes and - especially if we get one toDay - then we may be able to breathe once more a little.

Those with ten votes are not an asset to the village, they are a threat. They may think in their individual potholes that they are the fighters for freedom but they are the harbringers of doom in many senses.

Just think there are three romantic heroes around with ten votes. One gets killed by Thurnigwethil and her/his ten extra votes are in the possession of the baddies the next Day. Then the two remaining ten-voters disagree with each other who's the wolf and vote different people. That's it. We lose. The wolves know to concentrate their votes on the "right target", we don't.

I'm still not sure I get this point. If we kill someone today chiefly based on that person having 10 bonus votes left, and that person turns out to be innocent, then in what sort of situation does that leave us? The wolves are as well-off as ever, and the village has lost one of those who have more voting power left. Granted, villagers might not agree about who is guilty, but if we have innocents with bonus votes we'll at least have a chance of opposing the wolves on a decisive Day. If we go about lynching innocents with 10 bonus votes left, we don't have even that.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What you say makes sense in a way, but I think you are overlooking a very important thing. If the wolves all kept their bonus votes to themselves and Night-killed every innocent having bonus votes left, it wouldn't be right hard to identify them, would it?

Basically that's exactly what I'm after: I'm driving towards identifying them...

Are you for letting them to be concealed?

And so, with pressure enough they would need to discard their votes as not to be identified... and we would be in less a danger.

Simple, but soo hard to do in practise.

But we really have this Day to stay with a chance to win this. Three wolves and a Grima with ten votes each (+ Thuringwethil with ten extra-votes) will just spell the end of this game already toMorrow.


I'm amazed how few of you seem to get this. It's the end, finito, finé, konéc, kaputt, das ende, slut, loppu... if we leave three to five people with ten votes after toDay and lynch an innocent.

Maybe it's then what we deserve as a "village"...

I'm still not sure I get this point. If we kill someone today chiefly based on that person having 10 bonus votes left, and that person turns out to be innocent, then in what sort of situation does that leave us?

Bad one. We need to get a baddie toDay.

Granted, villagers might not agree about who is guilty, but if we have innocents with bonus votes we'll at least have a chance of opposing the wolves on a decisive Day. If we go about lynching innocents with 10 bonus votes left, we don't have even that.

Yeah. Sadly we don't seem to have the luxury of just pointing out the actual baddie like that and then go at her/him collectively. But the baddies both know who they are with and they can PM all the time to adjust their tactics when the situations change.

And even if we had an innocent or two with ten extra votes the wolves can just wait how they vote and then PM a strategy to counter it with their annihiliatory number of votes they have.

Sorry if I feel like pressuring this but I really think this is a question of winning or losing.

No, I don't propose anything like "let's systematically give away an X number of votes". No. The wolves could hide too easily under that kind of common decision.

Let's keep up the feeling that those not ready to use their votes will be the ones from whom we'll pick our lynch and see what happens.

It doesn't exactly help the plan if you all come back here to disagree with it with your underlying concerns about your personal safety.

Let's make the threat real. Only then will the wolves need to consider using their votes - and thence lose some of their power.

Otherwise they will outwit us in no time.

You may think it's no problem as it's only Day3. Sorry, this might be decided on Day4.

That spells toMorrow.

[Nogrod]

An addendum

Originally Posted by Greenie

If we kill someone today chiefly based on that person having 10 bonus votes left

No! I'm not suggesting we should base our votes "chiefly" on the fact that s/he has ten votes left. I say we pick the most suspicious of the "ten-voters".

It's pretty hard to believe - if not totally impossible - that all the baddies would have used some of their extra-votes already. They would be lousy wolves indeed.

It's perfectly possible one wolf has used some of her/his extras but I would be very surprised if two had done that. I think they've had quite an easy ride this far so why would they have botherered - when most of you seem to oppose my scheme of forcing them to use their votes and there is a crowd to blend in...

[Isabellkya]

Well yes, but why suck votes if you don't plan on using them?

X'd with Green.

[Kent2010]

++Brinn (+1)

Despite the 10 bonus still remaining I would not classify her voting 'safe.' She was the deciding vote for Nienna and voted in the midst of the madness yesterday for Sally.

The safest voters have been Formendacil, Shasta, and Greenie, who still have all 10 bonus and have also a squeaky clean record (meaning they've been staying out of the action).

Formendacil:
Day 1- Nilp
Day 2- Greenie

Shasta:
Day 1- Did not vote
Day 2- Formendacil

Greenie:
Day 1- for Agan but did not count
Day 2- Nogrod

Greenie had intentions of voting for the known innocent Agan, but by technicality it did not count. The placement was early, but that could just be because of an inability to be at the deadline. Are all early votes safe? (This isn't rhetorical, I really don't know)

Then Gwath and Sally who have all 10 bonus votes, but on Day 1 voted for the known innocent Nienna. They were the 'middle votes' in the Nienna bandwagon. On Day 2 neither voted. The question I have is would a wolf not vote? I don't know how Gwath and Sally play, but even in the situation yesterday would a wolf not cast a vote? They would know Kuru was innocent and I would imagine a wolf would just tack on votes in that situation.

Particularly Gwath who expressed a desire to save Nogrod and some suspicion of Kuru...if he was a wolf, why not tack on just a single vote?

[Kent2010]

What you say makes sense in a way, but I think you are overlooking a very important thing. If the wolves all kept their bonus votes to themselves and Night-killed every innocent having bonus votes left, it wouldn't be right hard to identify them, would it?
-Greenie

But that's the problem with so many people having a vast proportion of the votes. If they start killing all the innocents with 10 votes, and we figure out the rest of the people with 10 votes by then it will be too late. The baddies will have the massive vote power and be able to control the lynchings.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Kent

Are all early votes safe?

Dunno - I'd say early voting is safe if in case you vote early even if you could be around at deadline. If you vote early because you just can't be around at deadline, however, I wouldn't call it safe voting. Safe voting, the way I think of it, is something you can choose, whereas the time zone you live in generally isn't.


EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Basically that's exactly what I'm after: I'm driving towards identifying them...

Are you for letting them to be concealed?

No, I am not. You didn't seem to get my point. My point was that if the wolves all have their 10 bonus votes left they aren't exactly likely to go around Night-killing every innocent having as much bonus votes in order to stay concealed - especially if the general consensus is that anyone having all their bonus votes left is suspicious. Therefore, it might well be that the assumption your hypothesis is based on is invalid - and, as you philosophy teacher probably know, a hypothesis based on an invalid assumption is likely to be invalid too.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally, Nog and Sally

[Isabellkya]

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.



Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.



Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

Unless I understood incorrectly, we will see that votes have been sucked (at least in the case of a living player) but not who they've gone to until that person uses them and still has the same number of votes.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.



Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

Is it just me or does someone have some explaining to do?

(Meta-game note: I'm currently having my pretty much first meal of the day, so please excuse me for a while. Thanks)


EDIT: x'd with Form. By the way, I may be a skeptic but I've considered Form fairly innocent and now that....oh, it's going to be in another post. x'd with form, etc.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Usually, she is very confident in most every thing she says - or she appears supremely confident in her words. This game, she quite frequently self doubts and fishes.

Have you ever played with me?



Okay, I know this is a bit silly but I'm going with my gut.

++Kent


Again, this is hopefully just a placeholder vote until I get back, but I'm actually getting some vibes from Kent and they're not so shiny.


Also, a list, though it's going, repeat going, to change. There are three baddies and a Grima so, if I had to parcel everyone into groups right now just based on what I'm feeling, here's how it would go.


Guilty
Kent
Lari
Izzy
Shasta

Innocent
Form
Brinn
Nog
Nilp
Fea
Green
Gwath

Again, this is just if I had to pick the four baddies, these would be my top choices at the moment based on....well, on a hunch, really, but hopefully it's a good one.

As an announcement in advance, if I'm up for lynch toDay (which wouldn't totally surprise me) and there is someone else on the block that I think is guilty, I will vote to save myself and use my bonus votes as necessary. I hope I don't have to because I'd rather have to come back and choose between the greater of two possible evils rather than a known innocent (me) and a possible/probable wolf, but as I've stated in other games, if I let myself be lynched without trying to fight back I'm doing a disservice to the village.

(Also, I can kill you with my brain. Also also, I just woke up from a nap and am leaving in half an hour, so's you all know.)


Will post this and see what's going on. In advance, x'd with everything since the post after Kent's vote.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynch those with ten votes - or create a general feeling that those having ten votes are the ones in the line for the gallows. Then the wolves need to discharge their votes and - especially if we get one toDay - then we may be able to breathe once more a little.

Those with ten votes are not an asset to the village, they are a threat. They may think in their individual potholes that they are the fighters for freedom but they are the harbringers of doom in many senses.

I agree with the first paragraph. I disagree with the second.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I agree with the first paragraph. I disagree with the second.

Naturally. But don't let your ideas about the second amendment to blur your view about what's taking place here.

Thanks for the clarification Shasta. I'll chew the possibilities...

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm leaning towards Brinn being innocent right now, and would rather not see her go. She definitely has the air of an ordo who's irritated at being constantly suspected by the same person.

Now who might that be? I have voiced suspicion of her toDay but is there someome else with whom she's irritated with as being "constantly suspected" by? Or what might you mean?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now who might that be? I have voiced suspicion of her toDay but is there someome else with whom she's irritated with as being "constantly suspected" by? Or what might you mean?

Well, today it's been you, but I was mainly referring to past experience.

[Isabellkya]

IT seemed like you were responding to things as you read the thread. Just curious as to why you wouldn't just organize it all into one post. XD.

Shasta. You weren't really commenting. You were asking if anyone else had noticed such things. Questions and comments are not the same.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well, today it's been you, but I was mainly referring to past experience.

Hmm... interesting. As it can't be me. The last games we've had she has been the one to kill me at Night or secure my lynch so early on that I've had no chance to even start to actually suspect her...

Now does this look like you two have had conversations lately, like within a few hours, last Night, or something?