Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Isabellkya]

There are also the cases of the one-third chances. As well as the two/three nights in a row, someone can be turned. The three could all be males, looking to get rid of the females. Or could all be females, looking to get rid of fellow females to be left with a village of males. Or any reason for that matter.

Do those posts counts include the meet-and greet portion, Nilp?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Yes, unfortunately, they do. I'll do a proper count of game-related posts then.

[Isabellkya]

I think this is what it should look like without the negative day posts:

32 - Nog
31 - Form
30 - Kent
22 - Kuru
22 - Gwath
21 - Nilp
21 - Izzy
17 - Brin
16 - Fea
12 - Sally
08 - Greenie
06 - Shasta
05 - Lari

X'd with Nilp. Ahh, I see.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You posted just as I finished counting. Looks just about right.

So, adding a personal slant to things (like actual things said in posts, lingering impressions on my mind or lack thereof, etc.), my list of people to watch out for has:

Lari
Shasta
Green
Sally
Fea
Izzy
Gwath

Plus my outstanding suspicion of Kent and Brinn . . . wow, that's more than two-thirds of the village!

At least I'm convinced of Nogrod's innocence (let's see if some will take a hint ) and we have a known innocent in Kuruharan.

Anyone wants to do a post analysis of Lari, Shasta, or Green? Shouldn't be do hard. I'll do Sally.

[Kent2010]

I'm not going to apologize to you Kuru, I think you brought it upon yourself, glad you are innocent, but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it. That's all, I'll be back after work.

[Kent2010]

P.S. one more thing...

I'd like to know Gwath why you decided to chime in at the end between Kuru and myself? I appreciated it at the time, but now with not voting it looks like a move to egg the situation forward and looks like an oppurtunistic wolf defending an innocent.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it.

You completely over-reacted to somebody putting forward some speculations about you to the point where you put me in an untenable position where I couldn't talk about much else but you and I had to vote against you to try to save myself...even though at the beginning I wasn't really intending to vote against you at all.

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.

We really need to avoid that toDay.

And I agree with you regarding Gwath.

Anyway, posting from work right now and I have to stop...will be back later.

[A Little Green]

Hello I'm here. I would have been here already a few hours ago if the Barrow-Downs hadn't had some problems.

Originally Posted by Nog

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand.

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too. I don't see the sense in consuming your bonus votes unless you are at least relatively sure about the person you vote for - and I, for one, haven't yet been so and I bet that's the case with many others as well. What is more, the sort of "I suspect everyone who hasn't used any bonus votes" attitude isn't going to do us good in the long run as it may pressure people to use their bonus votes even if they weren't sure of what they are doing, which not only might lead to disastrous voting scenarios but also to a situation where most people have used up their bonus votes and the few wolves who have them left can control the game easily.

I'll be back in a while with some comments on yesterDay.

Oh, and a little addition: I still don't think the post count a relevant source of information concerning the amount of participation. There are people who like to post the thing they want to say in shorter sections and those who put it all in one post. Also, I don't think the amount of posts (unless outrageously small) necessarily correlates with the amount of actual substance the player provides.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Here's the current player-list with the number of bonus-votes left.

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Why is this such an urgent thing to do? We're now on 10-3 but as Kuru is here only for this Day the numbers will be 7-3 toMorrow if we miss toDay (unless Finrod succeeds of course).

Now Thuringwethil can kill someone who still has ten votes on the Night to come and suck the votes to herself giving her twenty extra votes toMorrow. The wolves - having 10 extra each - add up another twenty. Grima possibly having ten extra as well, s/he can just wait and see how the baddies start voting and join the fray. They have together 50 extra votes! That reads fifty! 50!

And those 50 votes are available for them to use against the remaining maximum votes of six innocents - the total number of our votes being 37 at the moment - not counting the possible extras we need to use already toDay...

So toMorrow they lynch whomever they wish and kill one the next Night leading us into 5-3 on Day5 and openly defeat us under the bright sunlight. (Yeah, they too may need to use some of their extra-votes toMorrow to drive the lynch but even one of us ordos not voting in line with others eases their task considerably)

But that's why they would love to keep their full bonus-vote stack yet toDay. And that's why we need to either empty their pockets or lynch one of them toDay.

Well if one of the baddies has already used a few of her/his bonus votes? That's perfectly possible but I wouldn't count on that as a common guideline, at least toDay. And I could bet quite a lot that at least two of them are still fully armed - I'm afraid they all are - so let's dig them out.

*hugs you*

Okay, first of all as far as I understand Thureth....Thurwen....*looks it up*....Thuringwethil can only suck two votes, so at max 'she' is going to end up with 12. Still problematic, but not as bad as you'd think, since hopefully she'll suck (no pun intended, yet it totally is) after she's already used a good portion of her bonus votes.

And I sort of agree about at least some of the baddies still having a full arsenal, but it's possible that they might have used some of them yesterDay either in self preservation or just to get poor Kuru out of the way.

By the way, thanks SO much for the attention yesterDay. *glares* Focus your mad wolf hunting skills (and associated remaining bonus votes) on a baddie next time though if you please.

....

....

Crap. I just went back and read the rules and you're right. If she kills someone she gets however many bonus votes that person has left. Oh my giddy aunt. Now I see why you're concerned. In that case it would almost be better for everyone to rid themselves of some bonus votes toDay if for no other reason than to make sure that if Vamp Girl (I don't want to keep scrolling up to find her name) kills someone she doesn't get as many votes. (Theoretically when she makes her kill, if she hasn't already, she might go for someone with their full arsenal as Noggie called it, knowing that we won't see the result of her vote suck because the person will be dead. Again, just a theory, but it makes sense to me.)

That brings up an interesting point. Footie didn't use any of her bonus votes so it's very possible that Vampie wanted her extra power. There's probably other reasons too, but if Vamp Girl made the kill last Night then that would be my guess as to why.

Originally Posted by Nilp's analysis of me

(Insert his commentary on me here)

Conclusions:

• Her voting has been rather suspect.
• She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
• But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

Here your logic fails. You'll notice that when I said 'wolves like me' I also stated that I do that when I'm a wolf. My voting was explained (sort of) but I really do understand why you'd find that odd, so I'm not at all upset about that. And I know. You just hate me.