WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nog

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie.

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

Originally Posted by Me, in the post you just quoted

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea.

See?

[Durelin]

So I should have done this earlier but needed the time to explain myself fully. I did not find out that Kath was dead and the alpha-duck until the beginning of toDay and I unfortunately have been crazy busy...and was completely unorganized so had to go back through my PMs.

Right. So now that my role no longer has a job...

I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh?

No, I am not like a seer (not another one). All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing.

On Day 1, there were 4 wolves.

On Day 2, the flock had grown to 5.

On Day 3, the flock was back down to 4, as Lommy was lynched and apparently the alpha-duck was not able to add to the flock (I believe because they either chose Gwath, Mith, Brinn, or the possibly remaining Hunter).

On Day 4 (yesterDay), the flock was down to 3 - they lost 2 during the Day but were back up the three by the end of the Night.

Last Night Kath was killed, and I was notified that the alpha-duck was dead, but apparently she still got her pick through because they are again at 3 toDay.

Yeah, I'm afraid we're not in *quite* as good a boat as we thought we were. But we do know who Gwath dreamt of each Night.

Night 0 - No duck added. Fea dreamt.
Night 1 - A duck added. Nogrod dreamt. Nog was not turned this Night as, since the Night events all happen simultaneously essentially because they all go through unless they cancel each other out, he would have shown up as a wolf if indeed he was turned this Night.
Night 2 - No duck was added. Mac was dreamt.
Night 3 - A duck added. Mith dreamt.
Night 4 - A duck added. Izzy seemed to suggest Nilp was dreamt? If so, then Nilp is the only guaranteed non-wolf, other than Izzy if she's telling the truth, and any remaining gifted(s).

*breathes* Sorry that took me too long!

[Macalaure]

That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4, which would make all prior dreams useless.

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

We can also start thinking about who would have made sense to be turned. Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now.

[Macalaure]

If we believe the claims of Izzy and Durelin, then our ducks are Fea, Nogrod, or Nerwen. Mith is a dreamt gifted. Izzy cleared Nilp. Lari is very unlikely.

My feeling says that Fea is the innocent one.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Mac

Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now

Except she would make a good candidate last Night, if she was consistently suspected by Kath and Lommy, both wolves. Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed. Bah, I don't know.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Mac

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

As are you...

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Mac

That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4

And we're talking about 3 wolves, I'm afraid.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Me

Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed.

Oh yeah. Gwath yesterDay was convinced she was a wolf, and others seemed to be disappointed they could not vote for her as well. So likely she did expect to be killed...at least toDay, not necessarily last Night.

Sorry, I'll stop spamming the thread now.

[Nogrod]

Oh my...

This is getting much too interesting at exactly the moment I thought I was ready for bed as I need to wake up early...

Darn timezones and Saturday exams!

So I'm not even starting the "why should we believe you as there seem to be a host of special goodies revealing in increasing intervals" -thing. Too late and too little time for it toDay. So looking at the details you Dury give, I'm going to buy it. It looks very believable indeed - like Izzy's case looked like.

Looks like a horrible scenario, four initial ducks and their numbers growing all the time if not hindered...

Originally Posted by Mac

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

And you Mac... and Mith as well.

So we went on with the hypothesis of trying to narrow things down toDay and ignore the "added ducks"-theory for a moment. Now who backed that plan or acted on it? Mac, you did. Fea did. Mith did. I did. No surprise there as we were the ones the count would leave out.

But three of them still around? From us nine?

Fea has had three Nights to be added to the ducklist, Mac and I have had two Nights, Mith has had one.

If Izzy (and therefore Nilp) are true, as well as Dury, it would lead to the three ducks being among us four added with Nerwen and Lari. So three out of six. 50-50 chance then...

Needs to think a bit.

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

[Nerwen]

*reads thread*

!!!

[Durelin]

Sorry Nog, I really didn't mean to keep you up...

[Macalaure]

The way Nogrod concludes that Nerwen's votes look innocent makes me think that they might be two of our wolves. Can't come up with much more now, but that's the way my gut tends. Therefore:

++Nogrod

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Somebody help. Please.

[Nogrod]

Okay. The question now becomes was the "duck-breeder" able to turn anyone to her cause - or if it is as Dury said that she was not able to turn someone with a gift but only ordos or "neutrals" (whether there are such people around)?

That would look very bad on you Mac. Real bad. And if you're innocent, then Mith might be the one.

Originally Posted by Mac

Mith is a dreamt gifted.

Your slip here as you wish to get rid of me, Fea and Nerwen? But Mith is no dreamt gifted. She's a dreamt "no-duck". And looking at Rikae who told she could twist someone's Nightly deeds, isn't that exactly what Mith did that Night when she halted the ducks?


Gah! Just saw your vote Mac... Do I have to believe what I just speculated?

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nog

The question now becomes was the "duck-breeder" able to turn anyone to her cause - or if it is as Dury said that she was not able to turn someone with a gift but only ordos or "neutrals" (whether there are such people around)?

Yes, unfortunately I was only told how many wolves there were at the start of each Day, and at the start of toDay I only had the added knowledge that the alpha-wolf was now dead, suggesting that the number is now fixed.

Somehow Kath was not able to turn/create a new wolf on Night 2. Oh. Wow. The wolves also didn't manage to get a kill that night...perhaps that is connected? (Edit: Or whatever Mith's powers are, they are connected?)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Kath's dead, though. Dury, will the flock get a new alpha duck toNight?

I don't think so, simply because the fact that I was informed of the alpha-wolf's death would suggest that the numbers aren't going to change anymore. I'm not sure why else I would be told that. That also seems rather like a hopeless cause if they do...

Originally Posted by Fea

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Izzy claims to be the seer tracker, and that she was able to try and guess who the seer was. She seems to suggest she guessed Gwath correctly and thus learned of all his "past and future dreams", she said. And she claimed at the start of toDay that Nilp is not a were-creature...I guess she claims to know that because of the whole knowing Gwath's dreams thing.

Wow that's convoluted. Course that rather describes this whole game...

(Edit #2: Wow, I can't type...)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

all his "past and future dreams", she said. And she claimed at the start of toDay that Nilp is not a were-creature...I guess she claims to know that because of the whole knowing Gwath's dreams thing.

Until he dies, one assumes. Suggests that Nilp was dreamed last Night. Suggests role was revealed even with Gwath's death.

Could be. I suppose.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So I'm not even starting the "why should we believe you as there seem to be a host of special goodies revealing in increasing intervals" -thing. Too late and too little time for it toDay. So looking at the details you Dury give, I'm going to buy it.

I also think she's telling the truth, because it makes sense, according to some things I know.

*is mysterious*

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looks like a horrible scenario, four initial ducks and their numbers growing all the time if not hindered...

Kath's dead, though. Dury, will the flock get a new alpha duck toNight?

EDIT: X'd since last post.

[Nerwen]

Oh dear. Now Mac's a baddie? Or just misled (Mac, you are wrong about Nogrod... or at least, wrong about him and me)

...oh, wait... think happy thoughts....

I mean... uh... YAY!!! YAY!!!! YAY FOR EVERYONE TURNING EVILLLLLL! IT'S SO EXCITING!!!!

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Somebody help. Please.

Izzy says this–

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I am a Seer/Dream Tracker.
Each Night I would submit a name to whom I thought the Seer would dream that Night. If I got it right, then I got the result of the Seer's Dream. I also had limited guesses as to whom the Seer was. If I guessed correctly whom the Seer was; then I would recieve all past and future dreams they submitted/received. If the Seer was to dream of me; then we would be able to PM each other at Night. Which is why I said I thought I knew what Rikae's role was. I even hinted as such. She was meant to stop the Seer from dreaming me. So the Seer and I could not contact each other.

So she implies she knows Nilp was dreamed as innocent (or non-duck, rather).

EDIT: X'd with Dury; chopped out rest of Izzy's post.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Except she would make a good candidate last Night, if she was consistently suspected by Kath and Lommy, both wolves. Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed. Bah, I don't know.

That would be great, if I could be made a wolf/duck, which I don't think I can. Because I'm the Hunter.

I haven't been around a lot because, well, I've been busy or just haven't had time or been utterly confused by this whole thing. I can't really say who I think looks innocent or guilty.

As for those who I seem to think of as slightly more guilty I'm going with Nerwen because, well, she is hiding something and I can't tell if its a good something or a bad something.

Mac is seeming slightly more innocent as well as Nog.