WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Macalaure]

Rikae -> Mith
Nobody can tell what she knows, wants, or is up to. She's playing a game of her own.

Nilp -> Kath
I absolutely don't know what to think of him.

Kath -> Lari
She's been after her for a bit, but is anybody else suspicious about the way she shifted the blame away from Nienna and Wilwa onto Lari in #655?

Mith -> Kath (2)
See Rikae.

Mac -> Nienna

Nogrod -> Nilp
Not trying to save Nienna, but he could have hoped that she would survive without his help and that it was not worth risking his own feathery bottom. (Interesting: he voted neither of the dead ducks - this is uncharacteristic for evil Nogrod, though maybe he was told that he's not allowed to vote for his fellows.)

Fea -> Nilp (2)
Nilp was more likely to attract votes at this point than anybody else. Votes for him are easy, especially when combined with not much reasoning. My feeling still says she's innocent, though.

Nienna -> Mith (2)
Why not Nilp or Kath?

Brinn -> Kath (3)

Nerwen -> Nienna (2)
There definitely was no need to bring Nienna back into the running at this point.

Izzy -> Nienna (3)
After her consistently. Innocent.

Durelin -> Nienna (4)
Innocent as well.

Lari -> Mith (3)
She showed before that she keeps track of the voting well, so evil Lari would have known that Nienna's only chance of survival was her voting Kath. On the other hand, if she decided not to save Nienna, she could just as well have voted for her.

Gwath -> Lari (2)
Same as Lari, plus what Nogrod said.

Evil
n.a.

Evil enough
Kath

You're asking me?
Mith
Nilp
Rikae

Innocent enough
Fea
Lari
Nogrod

Innocent
Durelin
Gwath
Isabellkya
Nerwen

Oh, the joys of the process of elimination.


I just noticed this:

Originally Posted by Nilp

I leave a widdle hintsie.

Fibonacci sequence.

Since three ducks are dead, and the game has not yet ended, we must be facing either 2 or 5 ducks right now:
Day1: 1 or 2
Day2: 2 or 3
Day3: 3 or 5 minus 1 resp. 2
Day4: 5 or 8 minus 3

Our only chance of winning is if we're dealing with 5 ducks. If we're dealing with 2, then we're doomed, unless we can pull a magic "get rid of two on one day" thing again. Tomorrow, we would have either 5 ducks, minus 1, possibly! If we have 5 ducks now, we will have 10 tomorrow! However, since, if I didn't miscount, we are 12 right now, after lynch and kill, there will be exactly 10 villagers left, all of which are ducks, and therefore, all of which will have won.

[...arrest this man, he talks in math...]