Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread

[Brinniel]

Hmm...I wouldn't assume anything from Rikae's vote. She's infamous for self-voting, regardless of her role.

If anything my guess would be that phantom is our cobbler, mostly for his interactions with Fea. I know those two can read each other well and I have a hard time believing tp could be so wrong about her. Plus, they seemed to be hinting at each other at the beginning of Day 1. If anything, I hope tp is the cobbler because then it'd mean our known baddies are wolves.

I was thinking last night, if Rikae or Izzy is the cobbler, it'd be better to get the cobbler first. Because then we'd know for sure toMorrow we'd be lynching a wolf. If we lynched the wolf toDay then a cobbler toMorrow, then it's over for us. Unless I'm still alive toMorrow to make my vote power picks for the following Night.

Looking back at the possibilities:

Originally Posted by Mnemo

1). She was the Black Pawn and guessed lucky.

Pros for this argument: holy cow, this wreaks havoc, which is a cobbler's duty!

Cons: She guessed lucky. Seriously?

2). She was the Black Knight and was pushing her mate Izzy under the bus.

Pros: If she pulled off an Izzy-lynch, presumably everyone would trust her and lynch whoever counterrevealed.

Cons: Being down a Wolf with a Bear still in play? Ouch!

3). She was the Black Knight and was pushing the Black Pawn under the bus.

Pros: Well, that's a good use of a cobbler!

Cons: She couldn't have known Izzy was the cobbler, only a known innocent. So we'd have clued onto her pretty quick, and this without us knowing what exactly the WQ could do!

1. If Rikae is the cobbler, then she somehow had to be convinced that Izzy was a White piece of some sort because there's no reason to sacrifice her if she could be evil. Of course, if this was so, then her judgment was very off. Putting Izzy on the lynching block would be a risky move for a cobbler, but then again Rikae likes to take risks and her behaviour is cobblerish (though she also acts cobblerish as a wolf and sometimes even as an ordo).

2. It's really funny, looking back through the Days, I spotted this from Mirandir:

Rikae - Vote analysis of last night, looked at Izzy and found her guilty. Could be a wolf throwing another wolf under the bus to cast suspicion off herself.

Interesting that she spotted that as a possibility from Day 2. It's weird that Rikae would want to sacrifice Izzy in the game, but then again it's Rikae. And the way she sets up her suspicions, it does seem a bit pre-planned. While cobblers have made fake reveals, I've noticed that it tends to be more often that a wolf does it. If Izzy really is the Black Bishop, it would've been a perfect bluff, and they could've gotten away with it.

3. Mnemo makes a good point that the Bishop wouldn't be able to recognise the Black Pawn through a dream. So either Rikae would've made a lucky guess, or Izzy somehow hinted to the wolves that she's the cobbler. Or perhaps Rikae didn't think Izzy was necessarily the cobbler and decided to throw her under the bus regardless of her role. Though quite honestly, Izzy doesn't look very cobblerish to me.

So yeah, I still find Option 2 most likely because it makes the most sense and would be quite typical of Rikae. And I certainly hope I'm right.

EDIT: X-posted with 10+ (apparently I'm really slow)