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#2 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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The other thing is that apparently the Queen got blocked. Now, given previous narrations, I think it's safe to say that there's more going on in this game than we had reckoned.
But if the not-dead person was indeed a Black Knight save, that implies that whoever it was was evil. And since the Knight can't protect two days in a row... Of course, that's too much for an innocent to hope for. I think it's still in the Queen's interest to keep those wolves around for a little while longer. And yesterDay's lynch... my brain STILL hurts. No theories, of course; would love to see what others have to say. Even though it appears that the cards are against us, we still need to do our best to catch those under Sauron's control, no matter what. Some speculation is good, especially because it says much about the speculators; but ultimately I can't let it distract me from attempting to sniff out WW's. Also, Izzy, how does it feel to be alive?
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#3 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Okay, so....yesterDay's lynch, eh? *eye twitches* Very interesting.
To business, though, if only briefly. A vote count for you lovely people, fully updated. Day One Votes Kath-->Nerwen at 6:36am Fea-->Hansy at 4:37pm Durie-->Sally at 4:39pm Steve-->Gwath at 4:55pm Eomer-->Sally at 6:18pm Rikae-->Steve at 9:26pm Hansy-->Fea at 9:45pm Lari-->Nog at 10:17pm Nog-->Fea at 10:25pm Willa-->Steve at 10:36pm Gwath-->Fea at 10:41pm Izzy-->Gwath at 11:37pm Sally-->Fea at 11:56pm Mnemo-->Steve at 11:58pm Phantom-->Gwath at 11:58pm Brinn-->Gwath at 11:59pm Did not vote: Mira Day Two Votes Willa-->Mnemo at 4:33pm Noggie-->Izzy at 6:10pm Kath-->Izzy at 7:21pm Hansy-->Noggie at 7:31pm Rikae-->Izzy at 7:50pm Fea-->Izzy at 10:15pm Lari-->Hansy at 10:50pm Mnemo-->Kath at 11:53pm Izzy-->Sally at 11:55pm Sally-->Hansy at 11:57pm Mira-->Mnemo at 11:58pm Brinn-->Noggie at 11:58pm Phantom-->Noggie at 11:59pm Izzy-->Noggie at 12:00am retraction of Izzy-->Sally at 11:55pmSally-->Izzy at 12:00am retraction of Sally-->Hansy at 11:57pmDid not vote: Durie, Steve
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#4 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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In an attempt to say that I really don't think, looking at things, that the WQ gets two votes but could subsitute the second place lynch for the first here's my facts to back it up. Day 1 was a tie and here are the votes for those tied:
Day 1 votes for Gwath: Steve Izzy the phantom Brinn Day 1 votes for Fea: Hansy Nog Gwath Sally So by reason these people should all have one vote because it was a tie. Randomly chosen. Day 2 votes for Nog: Hansy Brinn the phantom Izzy None of those people could have two votes. Hansy voted for Fea Day 1 and if he was the WQ then Fea would have died then. While Brinn and the phantom both voted for the lynchee on both Days, I still don't think that either of them has a double vote. Whether or not they are more than they seem is left to be seen. I'm more inclinded to think the phantom is innocent over Brinn though. I don't think Izzy is at all the WQ so there's nothing to say about her. Edit: x-posted with Dury and Izzy.
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-25-2009 at 02:20 PM. Reason: x-posted |
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#5 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Excellent thinking, Lari!
phantom did mention that the whole "double vote" thing could have other stipulations on it, but now that we've gotten it confirmed that Day One was indeed a tie I'm inclined to think that the "double vote" was just a theory put out there which we've been focusing on entirely too much. Which makes phantom look even more suspicious to me, as he had to know that this theory would not be the first one that would spring to people's minds. In response to your "how do we know it implies?" comment: that's why I said "implies." Implies means you can make a logical conclusion that it is so, not that it is so. I have no clue why the baddies would diverge from a rational pattern of protecting themselves, but it's still a distinct possibility. No, onto Rikae's point about Izzy: I'm still not treating Izzy as an innocent. I'm decidedly neutral about her. But I do still find it odd that she got four early, non-bandwaggony-looking votes that were never gainsaid. Maybe I should just get off my Izzy-voter high horse; it looks as if no one's taking me up on it. Maybe I'm just crazy... Won't have time to look into anyone in any great detail until a couple of hours from now.
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#6 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Or perhaps there is someone whose vote doesn't count at all. Or maybe the WQ can, on one day, wave off the top lynch candidate. Or perhaps the WQ is immune to the lynch. Or to one single lynch. Or immune till she auto-dies at a preset time- Shasta: "You are the WQ. You cannot be killed, but will exit the game automatically after Day 4." There are quite a few possibilities, and only one chess piece knows the truth of it.
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#7 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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What if the White Queen can say "hey, this person's vote doesn't count"? I would suspect, in that case, it is a day-to-day pick of who doesn't count, and thus they can protect whoever they think their target will be going after. It's just another thought to throw into the pile.
I forgot to add that, conversely, they could choose someone's vote to count twice on a given Day.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#9 | |||||
Beloved Shadow
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![]() And we kinda sorta didn't kill him either. The lynch was wacky.
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#10 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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I do. More than the wolves, I'm reasonably sure anyway...
I've been watching the goings on while doing my illustration homework and I'd merely like to point out that the only two people who said anything at all interesting made me laugh at the contradictory nature of what they said, but I'd much rather not discuss it openly. Instead, I shall make a List. We shouldn't kill: the phantom, wilwa, Lari, Durelin We should let convalesce a bit more: Steve We should force more participation out of: Kath, Hansy We should lynch one of the following: Izzy, Brinniel, Sally, Rikae, Mnemo
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peace
Last edited by Feanor of the Peredhil; 02-25-2009 at 03:46 PM. Reason: x'd Dury |
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#11 |
Animated Skeleton
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 34
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#12 | ||||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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It definitely looks as if someone was protected during the night, though I don't think there is any certainty as to whom did the protecting. At first glance, to me it looks like the BK is the one responsible. Though with not knowing what the WQ is capable of; there is no ruling xer out.
I was thinking that maybe the WQ has something akin to an anonymous vote(s). Where during the night, they tell Shasta whom they want to place a vote(s) on the next Day. So, essentially they get to vote for more than one person each Day. It could explain it - rather than their own vote counting for more than one; which doesn't look like it quite fits. Though, if it were the case of an anonymous vote(s) deal; the first Day, they didn't place it for Gwath or Fea. But looks like they could've voted for Nog. Explaining why he was lynched over myself. Quote:
We have 13 players alive; 6 of which are ordos, and 7 which are "special". Which brings us to 8 innocents : 5 baddies. So I think we are dealing with a pretty slim margin, with room for very little error. Quote:
I keep forgetting that overall it is a chess game, rather than just plots. Rereading the other plots made this clear. That even if the save was due to the WQ - Shasta would mention either Sauron or Gandalf; since they are the players. Quote:
If it was because of the BK, I see no reason why they would be protecting someone other than whom is on their team. I suppose I could see them branching out and protecting the BP, but I think it a less likely possibility. Unless they were certain of the BP and whom the BP was helping out/working for. In the case of the WQ, they could've been protecting a baddie, or an innocent. If xe has protecting powers. Again, I think the only certain thing - is that the BQ did not get to kill someone last Night. My computer goes by the name of Huey. Now, that I've caught up. I will go analyzing some people and possibly make a list of where people lie in my mind.
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#13 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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Day One Votes
Kath-->Nerwen at 6:36am Fea-->Hansy at 4:37pm Durie-->Sally at 4:39pm Steve-->Gwath at 4:55pm Eomer-->Sally at 6:18pm Rikae-->Steve at 9:26pm Hansy-->Fea at 9:45pm Lari-->Nog at 10:17pm Nog-->Fea at 10:25pm Willa-->Steve at 10:36pm Gwath-->Fea at 10:41pm Izzy-->Gwath at 11:37pm Sally-->Fea at 11:56pm Mnemo-->Steve at 11:58pm Phantom-->Gwath at 11:58pm Brinn-->Gwath at 11:59pm Did not vote: Mira Day Two Votes Willa-->Mnemo at 4:33pm Noggie-->Izzy at 6:10pm Kath-->Izzy at 7:21pm Hansy-->Noggie at 7:31pm Rikae-->Izzy at 7:50pm Fea-->Izzy at 10:15pm Lari-->Hansy at 10:50pm Mnemo-->Kath at 11:53pm Izzy-->Sally at 11:55pm Sally-->Hansy at 11:57pm Mira-->Mnemo at 11:58pm Brinn-->Noggie at 11:58pm Phantom-->Noggie at 11:59pm Izzy-->Noggie at 12:00am retraction of Izzy-->Sally at 11:55pmSally-->Izzy at 12:00am retraction of Sally-->Hansy at 11:57pmDid not vote: Durie, Steve Day Three Votes Durie-->Phantom at 12:14pm Willa-->Sally at 5:43pm Steve-->Sally at 5:47pm Kath-->Hansy at 7:42pm Fea-->Izzy at 9:27pm Sally-->Hansy at 10:02pm Rikae-->Izzy at 10:15pm Hansy-->Phantom at 10:19pm Lari-->Hansy at 11:39pm Mnemo-->Hansy at 11:54pm Brinn-->Izzy at 11:57pm Phantom-->Hansy at 11:58pm Hansy-->Sally at 11:59pm retraction of Hansy-->Phantom at 10:19pmIzzy-->Sally at 12:00am By the way, I'm not taking for granted Phantom's innocence nor even my own, though we're both innocent. I only put someone as known if they're dead or flat out revealed. Thanks for listening.
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#14 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Blah. I'm with Phantom on this; I need some sleep.
I'll be busy most of the rest of the Day, at least in theory. So if I'm not around until a few hours before deadline it's because I'm at work. (I currently don't know if they'll need me to come in or not, and won't know until shortly before I would leave anyway.) Just wanted to give you all a heads up and stuff. Good night, dear ones. Post lots and lots while Silly Sally sleeps!
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#15 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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But of course analysing the seer is obviously evil. ![]() Kath left a clear trail to her dreams in case she was killed, and if anyone disagrees with my conclusions, feel free to point out another possibilities. It's late and I might have missed something. Anyway, I can't see anything wrong with discussing Kath's possible dreams. Someone was going to analyse it if not me, and even if no one did, players would still reach these conclusions on their own. Yeah, it makes both tp and Sally great target for toNight (unless the baddies think one of you is the cobbler), but at this point it's better to have some known innocents around since it'll increase our chances of finding a baddie. Plus, if both black teams are still alive toNight, there's a chance that they'll choose the same kill resulting in only one kill for the Night.
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#16 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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#18 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Okay phantom. I'm afraid now you're just confusing me...
I actually wrote up a lengthy post to analyse Lari, but it ended up being mostly lengthy quotes from her and no conclusions from me, so I don't think I'll bother to actually post it. I will say that her posts were rather safe and she once again played the newbie card (I guess we'll have to look out for that in the future). She voted for all known innocents (twice for Hansy), which doesn't help us much. I am quite relieved she is dead, not only because she was evil, but also because I don't think I would've ever figured her out otherwise. Lari seemed to be under a lot of people's radars, some slightly suspecting her, but not enough to actually really have a look at her (except for Izzy who did so late in the Day). Her lingering presence and vote could've been quite dangerous. Of course, there's a good chance there are more baddies who have managed to keep under the radar, so it'd be a good idea to have a look at them. I also wanted to check out Eonwe's posts, but it's getting late so it'll have to wait for later...unless someone else beats me to it. I need to have a closer look at everyone, and with less players it should be easier for me to do without taking too much time. As of now, one player that does stick out to me is Fea who I think garners some attention. One thing I noticed looking back through the game is how strange it was that she nearly got lynched on Day 1, then in the following Days received almost no suspicion at all. Of anything else, I find that most alarming. I think I'll take a closer look at her posts come tomorrow as I have a strong hunch that she is a baddie of some sort. I also said I would look at wilwa, which I will, though I feel less sure about her. The main problem I have with wilwa is that she feels so innocent, that I worry I may be horribly deceived. After all, it's happened before. Hmm...it seems I've assigned myself quite a bit of homework. Though I probably won't get around to it until the evening. For now, it's off to bed with me.
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#19 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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So here's the voting track of everyone who's still alive. Durie: Sally, (no vote due to RL circumstances), Phantom Fea: Hansy, Izzy, Izzy Izzy: Gwath, Sally/Noggie, Sally Phantom: Gwath, Noggie, Hansy Brinn: Gwath, Noggie, Izzy Sally: Fea, Hansy/Izzy, Hansy Willa: Steve, Mnemo, Sally Rikae: Steve, Izzy, Izzy Mnemo: Steve, Kath, Hansy player/player indicates a retraction, with the final vote last of course I'm going to post this then check it for accuracy (less scrolling that way) so it will be edited as necessary just to make sure it's correct. Also, in this version I am a known innocent. Deal with it. Phantom is innocent in my book but that doesn't mean he's not a cobbler, so he's not italicized, just to be fair and cautious at least once in my life. ![]() I'll get to more comments on this in a bit, but wanted to actually get it posted for everyone's use.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#20 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Ai!!!
Rikae, if you think Sally's the Black Knight, then whom do you think Kath dreamt on Night 3? And just to be clear, what role did you dream for Izzy? I do not trust you, dear. Why should I believe a word of what you're saying?
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#21 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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Izzy is the black bishop. I don't know who Kath dreamt, but it obviously wasn't Izzy.
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#22 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
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I'm quite confused to say the least. Yet I am not about to look a gift horse in the mouth (too much.)
When I saw the scene, I was quite speechless after exclaiming a phrase; which I can't repeat the entirety of here. My thought, is if the WQ were responsible for it - wouldn't Shasta of attributed xer for it; rather than Sauron?
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#23 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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But I don't think we can look into the narrations for clues other than who got which Night kill. After all, the death that was saved was (almost) caused by the two Wizards actually colliding with one another. But unless there's some rule which we haven't been told of (which is entirely likely, praise our Mod with great praise) the unexplainable death must have had something to do with the unknown role.
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#24 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
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My last post was crossposted with #368 and #367. But it wouldn't let me save it after editing it in.
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#26 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#27 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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To the lists!
Some people may appear on multiple lists, some may appear on none.
Werecreatures Brinn Fea Hansy Durie (just a hunch, though I know she's been gone so I won't lynch her now) Spefically the Black Queen Brinn Hansy Hiding in the dark corners (could go either way) Mnemo Kath Probably innocent, at least for now Izzy Rikae (What? Inconceivable!) Phantom Steve (pity the sick man if nothing else) Definitely innocent in my book Sally Shasta Mith Legate Nilp Lommie Agan Greenie I also have some more solid theories about the White Queen, but I don't care to endanger Her Majesty, so I'll keep them to myself until I believe the time is right. Until then I'm on the straight and narrow, off to analyze someone. You'll find out who when my post pops up. ![]()
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#28 | ||||||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Then again, I don't know if we can be sure she targeted a wolf. Would it be possible that the wolves chose to protect someone else if they suspected/knew that they were the Black Pawn? Of course, if the Black Queen eliminated the BP instead it wouldn't be so bad either...but then again, that could be another reason for her not to kill her original target since the BP should be on her side.. Quote:
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Since Shasta's around, perhaps he can tell us. Was the Day 1 lynch really a tie? Or is the actual vote count to remain a secret? Anyway, we can't really know what the WQ's power is for sure...it's all just speculation. One possibility that came to mind is perhaps the White Queen has the power to save a lynch candidate she thinks is innocent. Kind of like a ranger, but during the Day. But then, why wouldn't there just be no lynch instead? Quote:
![]() *By alarming, I'm assuming you mean suspicious. Quote:
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#29 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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True, Brinn, Phantom's voted the same way you have, but I think it would be pretty silly for him to bring up the true nature of his role so flippantly. I mean, it's Phantom, but still....
Shasta's actually gone to bed for the night. I'm not saying he'd lie to us so much as withhold information. Completely different barrel of red herring. Well, I certainly named my computer before the game started so yeah. Draw from it what conclusiong you may; I'm going to try to catch the baddies if you don't mind.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#30 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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I've got all of Willa's posts cued up and will run through them at some point, but I'm kind of considering going to bed, or at least getting off the board for the night. I'll make sure to get to my analysis as soon as I can though. (Hopefully I'll be around during my rubbish seminar class tomorrow if I can manage to get a spot where the professor won't see me, because distraction is the only thing keeping me sane hehe.)
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#31 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Quote:
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