T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

If she's not the ranger, the real ranger should have no reason to stay hidden this late in the game.

What? If she's not the real ranger and the real ranger reveals himself, he'll be dead. If he stays hidden he can still make a save and buy us an additional Day! Then we would lynch Lari and probably find her to be the cobbler and nothing is won.

Having said that, I don't see any reason why Lari should reveal her role at this point. No vote was cast and her death far from certain. Now she will be killed at night. Then again, it does look honest.

Originally Posted by Beregond

If we let her live, and she IS the ranger, the wraiths will either find her in the night, or leave her be and hope we waste a lynch tomorrow.

Unlikely. Leaving a known innocent alive is not that much of a risk, but if the ranger is left alive and happens to successfully protect somebody, that's a really bad thing for the wraiths. Lari is dead, unless the wraiths have some reason to believe she's lying (i.e., she's the cobbler).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What? If she's not the real ranger and the real ranger reveals himself, he'll be dead. If he stays hidden he can still make a save and buy us an additional Day! Then we would lynch Lari and probably find her to be the cobbler and nothing is won.

Indeed. If she's not the Ranger, the real Ranger needs to keep quiet at this point.

It will be a problem if there's two claimants toMorrow though... Can we safely assume that, after toNight, a living Lari is a guilty Lari?

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm the real Ranger. I even stupidly left out a night. Before protecting Mac for the first time I protected Fea. Hence why I asked if the wolves/wraiths could get another kill if the one that they wanted to kill was protected. I assumed they would go after Fea after the Durelin lynch and then try to frame Nog. Well they sort of did...if you switch Fea and Nog.

I revealed now because it seemed like the last option, and, well, I'm apparently horrible at the whole who to protect thing.

Menel: Not really, but that one does work too. I thought of the archery later. It was more the whole "love of traveling, outdoors, justice" and such that I was like "well, that gives away my role like it's its job".

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

will be a problem if there's two claimants toMorrow though... Can we safely assume that, after toNight, a living Lari is a guilty Lari?

No you can't. I can protect myself.

[Macalaure]

Legate's death. The trouble, as usual, is finding out whether somebody was killed because he was dangerous or because he left no trails. Legate's is pretty clear about who he suspects. Rune and Brego are innocent, and Nerwen and Aganzir likely so. He initially was tempted to believe Lari innocent, but then changed his mind. He refrains from going after Menel and is deeply unsure of Miri. You can't tell me that Legate was killed because he was dangerous to anybody. Apart from Lari, nobody really had to fear him. This looks good for her (and Miri, too. Menel less so, because he could not have been sure of what Legate was going to do about him toDay.)

Originally Posted by Lari

I revealed now because it seemed like the last option, and, well, I'm apparently horrible at the whole who to protect thing.

Rangering has a lot to do with luck. Unless an innocent's role is revealed, the chances of successfully protecting somebody are pretty slim. A ranger is a nice thing to have, but she's rarely decisive. Missing the protection of Lommy is some darn bad luck...

Originally Posted by Lari

No you can't. I can protect myself.

Ah, that's neat.

[Macalaure]

I think I will vote for one of the people Legate thought was innocent toDay. Rune, Brego, Nerwen, or Aganzir. But which one?

[Macalaure]

I still wonder whether Rune's interaction with Brinn on Day1 might have been staged and his involvement in the Durelin lynch is suspicious. Then again, so is Lari's and Miri's (and both were more sneaky), and I won't vote for either toDay. What makes me hesitate is that Rune is quite his usual self: a bit grumpy and utterly unafraid to speak his mind.

Beregond looks so innocent to me that it's starting to frighten me. As I said before, if he's a wraith, he's one slick specimen. Even most experienced players couldn't do it like him. I can't help but be wary of him, though.

We still haven't seen much of Nerwen since RL is limiting her. She hasn't done anything to make me suspicious, but hasn't really done anything to make me think she's very innocent either. She would be a bit of a shot in the dark.

Aganzir, nah. She's the only contributor of her level of volume left, and it'd be a shame to lynch her with reasons as vague as mine (even though I think I'm on the right track). Also, seeing the wraiths' appetite for loud villagers (Nog, Rikae, Leggit), she will probably be killed toNight and I'm unwilling to do their dirty work.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I think I will vote for one of the people Legate thought was innocent toDay. Rune, Brego, Nerwen, or Aganzir. But which one?

Ahem. Macalaure, that looks rather as if you're paving the way for a random lynch.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Okay, you're not, then.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ahem. Macalaure, that looks rather as if you're paving the way for a random lynch.

Nah. I will give Legate's suspects the benefit of the doubt toDay and won't vote for Miri or Menel (well, and Lari). Unfortunately, even with the narrowed field, I'm very unsure. I can't see anyone of the living as clearly wraith-ish, even though even two of them are left. I'm a bit dissatisfied with myself in this village, I can tell you.

[Nerwen]

Thoughts:

Lari– well, we won't know what to think if she's alive toMorrow... but we still can't risk lynching her now.

Aganzir: Built up a case on Legate, so unlikely to have killed him last Night; probably wouldn't go after Mac so hard if she were a wraith, in case he really is Ferny.

Rune: One of the Durelin-voters (and look, it's very unlikely none of them were wraiths). Today seems a little too quick to dismiss Lari's claim.

Mira: Another Durelin-voter. Has seemed vaguely sneaky on and off... could be just a nervous newbie, though.

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

Mac: Another cobbler-candidate. Whether he is Ferny or not, the wraiths may think he is, which would explain why he's still alive.

In fact, it would really help to know if the wraiths and Ferny are aware of each other's identities or not. I have reason to think Ferny isn't, or wasn't a couple of Days ago (explanation next post).

Finally, there Beregond, whom I keep forgetting about. Seems very innocent ... as Mac says, almost scarily so... but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Hey!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Menel

Lynching a wraith-to-be if xe were revealed is a bad idea, Agan? It may be a bit harsh, but that would at least keep the number of wraiths from increasing.

Yes. A really bad idea. Firstly, if Frodo had revealed, it doesn't seem very likely the wolves would have attacked xem. Secondly, if they for some reason had, we would have known who Frodo was and could have lynched xem only then. Up until that xe would have served as a known innocent. I fail to see why xe should have been lynched before xe was turned.

Originally Posted by Menel

the strange need to refute everything Mac says seems unusual as well.

You can consider it a tradition.

Originally Posted by Menel

Ah, I see that Lari has confirmed what I suspected about her from yesterDay.

Hmph and I thought it was a cobblerish remark.

Originally Posted by Menel

Answer to Aganzir: I just ment it is easier when you can find a pattern in the voting. . .if it appears random you can use it to very little.

That's what I thought but I don't think wolves vote in any special pattern very often so I wasn't sure I had understood it correctly.

Originally Posted by Mac

What? If she's not the real ranger and the real ranger reveals himself, he'll be dead. If he stays hidden he can still make a save and buy us an additional Day! Then we would lynch Lari and probably find her to be the cobbler and nothing is won.

Okay that's true. Although I don't see how you ended up with the cobbler conclusion - a suspected wolf could try to pretend to be the ranger as well. And it wouldn't matter even if we lynched the cobbler because we have to get one baddie today, or at latest tomorrow, but then it'll be somewhat more difficult.

I am a bit baffled about Mac wanting to vote one of the people I consider innocent.

I wonder if a Menelwolf would have left Lari alive after figuring what she meant with the Sagittarius comment. Unless he was a wolf who thought it was a cobblerish remark or vice versa, but the former seems unlikely to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

I said the same about Lari last game so being a newbie doesn't mean getting a free pass from me anymore.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps?

It's clear from your suggestions for night kills
The lights are not all on upstairs
But we're talking lyches and victory
Your options are far beyond compare

Originally Posted by Nerwen

does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil?

Yes. I'd much rather lynch Mac himself than Nerwen who is one of the most innocent-looking here.

I don't like Menel's analysis. Using day 1 as a grounds for one's vote seems a bit far-fetched at this point of the game. First Mac votes for an innocentish person and then Menel comes up with several points against her concerning her day one behaviour. I don't think Nerwen's vote was suspicious, and it's definitely not her fault if a wolf and the cobbler decide to jump on the bandwagon.

I could vote for Menel, Mira, or Mac.

I'll go make some tea. Back in a few minutes.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

No you can't. I can protect myself.

Well, that could make for an interesting Day toMorrow.

Where does it say that, though?

EDIT: X'd with Mac.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Where does it say that, though?

I asked Kitanna one Night.

Edit: x-posted with Miri(a? which one do you like?)