T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Aganzir]

sally that's simply awesome!

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I did concentrate on the original wraith, because I think it was too early yesterDay to really find out Frodo.

Why? When you posted those lists, everyone alive had already posted. Okay it's true there might not have been enough information to incriminate anyone, but still. Was it too early to even try?

Originally Posted by Mac

Not that we can deduce anything from that, but it's good to know s/he's useless (at least in that aspect).

This comment really made me laugh.

Originally Posted by Rikae

if he is Ferny, the wraiths almost certainly know it (remember his "send own name on night 2" business?) and won't kill him. If he isn't dead soon, (soon enough that we avoid the risk of an evil vote from him ruining everything for the village) he needs to go.

I thought about that too yesterday, but found it better not to mention it as I thought the wraiths could force us to lynch a known innocent by just leaving him alive even if he is not the cobbler.

I realised I forgot to check Lari's interaction with sally & Brinn when making my analysis. Off to do it now.

[Aganzir]

Just at the beginning of day 1 sally said that clearly our top suspects are Lari & Gollum as she found the body and he is a weapons expert.
On day 1 Lari was one of Brinn's several voting options. Sally, on the other hand said she wouldn't vote Lari. Nothing she had said had looked suspicious and especially as I had said that my vote was random, she hoped no one would go along with it. I'd imagine she wanted to keep a bit more distance if Lari was her fellow but I don't know.

On day 2 Brinn made some wishy-washy statements about Lari, saying her vote was throwaway but it actually isn't that suspicious, and nothing about Lari jumps at her but she's wary because she played a brilliant wolf last game. She was listed as a No Clue.

On day 3 Brinn said that Lari's defences seem shoddy. Especially she seemed to find it weird that Lari was concerned about being voted. She was listed as suspicious, along with Fea and sally. Somehow I doubt Brinn would have suspected both her fellows like that, given that Lommy was already suspicious of her and sally. Why bring the last wolf under the spotlight?

Okay and then it's day 4 and it's impossible to say anything anymore as Lommy had already come out when Brinn & sally started posting.
On her last list Brinn listed Lari as Not sure, but I rather doubt we can make anything of that list.

I find it quite unlikely now that Lari is a normal wraith. It just doesn't make sense that Brinn would have labeled both her and sally guilty, especially as her own survival was still uncertain, what with Lommy breathing on her neck.

I don't know why the wraiths would have gone after Lari, either, as I think she started to be suspected to some extent. Unless they had a strong reason to assume she was Frodo and wanted to turn her before she got to reveal. I didn't see anything that could have indicated that, though, besides maybe the Sagittarius comment.

Now I'm off to do something else.

[Macalaure]

A (sobering) thought about Frodo before I start looking closely at Mirandir and Rune (and continue cleaning up the mess the kids made in the kitchen): his wraithification couldn't have happened at a better time. It is just too obvious what Frodo had to do yesterDay and toDay. Unless he was foolish, he did not question Lommy's claim and went with Brinn or Sally instantly (could have actually voted later, of course). ToDay, it's voting Sally and looking decently helpful (or having an excuse not to be). ToMorrow, two days will have passed since his switch, and with everything that will have happened in between, you can pretty much innocentish-lookingly justify any change in opinion. A change in behaviour is really all we can look for, unless Frodo made a mistake, but changes in behaviour are difficult to detect and it's easy to accidentally lynch an innocent for it.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Not much have happened today I see. . .

I am feeling much better now, but is still sleeping alot of the time...I don't think I have the energy to read through the posts of last day, so I will focuse my energy on what happens today.

obviously it is not chritical that I contribute a great deal to day, but I think I have to contribute a bit in order not to loose touch with the game.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Just a few random thoghts:

Legate and Aganzir seems very innocent, in the way that I agree with most of what they say and that they in genneral do not seem to fabricate cases.

Menel plays like he always do, he does not leave much for you to analyse on and is very hard judge. I guess I get a mostly innocent feel from him, but that is often the case with the more silent players. (unless it is people who normally talk alot)

[A Little Green]

Here at last. I thought I'd have nothing special to do today but apparently I had since now is the first time I got anywhere near a computer (that was not occupied by a certain Lomzy).

First of all,

++Sally

Then to other business. I had some ideas at the end of yesterDay but I've probably forgotten them by now. List coming up.

Is there anyone around? I'd like a chat with someone.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Is there anyone around? I'd like a chat with someone.

OOH! OOH! PICK ME! PICK ME!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

A (sobering) thought about Frodo before I start looking closely at Mirandir and Rune (and continue cleaning up the mess the kids made in the kitchen): his wraithification couldn't have happened at a better time.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It is just too obvious what Frodo had to do yesterDay and toDay. Unless he was foolish, he did not question Lommy's claim and went with Brinn or Sally instantly (could have actually voted later, of course). ToDay, it's voting Sally and looking decently helpful (or having an excuse not to be). ToMorrow, two days will have passed since his switch, and with everything that will have happened in between, you can pretty much innocentish-lookingly justify any change in opinion. A change in behaviour is really all we can look for, unless Frodo made a mistake, but changes in behaviour are difficult to detect and it's easy to accidentally lynch an innocent for it.

You used British spellings. As we all know, anyone who's not American doesn't have his head screwed on properly.

...What? I'm going to die anyway, may as well die for as many different reasons as possible!


EDIT: yes, this post is Emily too. Just for clarification's sake.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

if he is Ferny, the wraiths almost certainly know it (remember his "send own name on night 2" business?) and won't kill him. If he isn't dead soon, (soon enough that we avoid the risk of an evil vote from him ruining everything for the village) he needs to go.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I thought about that too yesterday, but found it better not to mention it as I thought the wraiths could force us to lynch a known innocent by just leaving him alive even if he is not the cobbler.

Eexactly. I was thinking just the same. Okay, but let me say it aloud when it's been said already. I would have said more, but of course one cannot say it now, because if something happened later it might be influenced by that and what... okay, forget it. What I want to say now: in my opinion, sometimes it looks like Mr. Mac is a Cobbler, but then, it may be that he is not and I cannot really say one or the other. In either case, even if it came to that, I suggest we leave any lynching him or such only for very late, as much late as possible, or not at all - because he (or now we can speak in any Cobbler in general) still counts as an Ordo, and unless he knows more than we do, he should not be that great threat until really very late. The fact is just that we have one Cobbler here, and should count on it when voting. Thus, voting with as much care as we can.

But at least for a few days, I think... Mac will likely be targeted and possibly killed. I think we can guess about Cobblers everywhere, but a given innocent is a given innocent, he narrows our choices on who the Wolves might be.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It is just too obvious what Frodo had to do yesterDay and toDay. Unless he was foolish, he did not question Lommy's claim and went with Brinn or Sally instantly (could have actually voted later, of course). ToDay, it's voting Sally and looking decently helpful (or having an excuse not to be). ToMorrow, two days will have passed since his switch, and with everything that will have happened in between, you can pretty much innocentish-lookingly justify any change in opinion. A change in behaviour is really all we can look for, unless Frodo made a mistake, but changes in behaviour are difficult to detect and it's easy to accidentally lynch an innocent for it.

Yes, exactly. However, let us bear in mind that even switching your role can kind of change your mentality, even subconsciously. You start to behave differently. You have to react to people. What better, you have to interact in a certain way with your fellow Wolf (like, writing if you find him suspicious or not or whatever). For this reason, I strongly suggest that everybody states his opinion on all people, publicly, so that we may guess something from it. It's easier to catch a Frodo with unsincere behavior in his posts about people.

And he won't have to be unsincere just about his companion, but about all of us, of course - as he will know that we all are innocent, but an ordo of course would not be sure.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And he won't have to be unsincere just about his companion, but about all of us, of course - as he will know that we all are innocent, but an ordo of course would not be sure.

Huh? I was with you up until this point. That could just be because I'm ridiculously tired at the moment, but could you explain please? Sorry to be a pain.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I know I have promised to look deeper at some other posts, but alas, I was distracted by other matters, so I cannot give you any lengthy analyses, as I hoped. But for now, at least when it comes to people:

The list didn't change much since yesterDay (not that there was much to go with):

I trust:
A Little Green - her posting seems really sincere, I can't say much more to that.

I tend to trust:
Aganzir - more or less, she is not doing anything suspicious. I know, I know. She is always looking innocent.

Macalaure - is a known innocent. Enough for us. He is not a Wraith.

Rikae - is behaving so innocently, and sometimes so much anti-Macalaure and such... that it makes me wonder a bit... though for now... I hope that further days will clear things up (or not)

I tend to have no idea:

Nerwen - I was just wondering if she cannot be a sneaky Wolf, a bit flying (Wolf? FLYING? No, wait - that's a wraith. What? Wraith? FLYING? THE NAZGUL HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER!
RIDE, RIDE! WAIT NOT FOR THE DAWN! LET NOT THE SWIFT WAIT FOR THE SLOW! RIDE!!!) under the radar, but heck, she seems genuine, her posting seems genuine... err, whatever. In fact, I tend to trust her more than let's say Rikae... Rikae I trust more on the rational basis, for what she does (although lately...), that she says sensible things... Nerwen... oh well.

I have no idea:

Lariren Shadow
Mirandir

I wonder about:

Beregond - he seems like an innocent newbie. But like I said, sometimes it looks like it could be a Wolf newbie. Well, as with everybody else - and here with double importance - I want to see what is his posting going to be like toMorrow and further.

Rune Son of Bjarne - sometimes he looks okay, sometimes with a question mark of wolfishness - I would like to see what it is going to be like in the future.

Meneltarmacil - after reading Greenie's analysis I need to look at him in particular once again myself, but my general impression of him was rather innocent. True, I should perhaps reevaluate. From Greenie's post, though, it occured to me - isn't it rather possible for him being the Cobbler?

EDIT: x-ed since first Mira and with Rune

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I thought about that too yesterday, but found it better not to mention it as I thought the wraiths could force us to lynch a known innocent by just leaving him alive even if he is not the cobbler.

In my research, I just came across something that makes me more sure we needn't worry about that:

“Now while Mac was trying to save himself, upon looking it over again I think it was more of an innocent Mac trying to save himself while the wraiths took advantage of it.” - Sally, Day 2 (after voting Mac on Day 1)

She goes on defending him after that.