Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

I think that's probably right. Sauron feared Galadriel perhaps more than any other foe, after all. More to the point, Sauron's original war strategy called for a much more substantial assault on Lorien; only after Aragorn revealed himself in the Palantir did Sauron redirect forces to the southern front* instead, being now convinced that the Ring was bound for Minas Tirith.

* The Chronology isn't specific about which forces, but it would seem likely that it would be the army that issued from the Morannon and in the event crossed at Cair Andros into Anorien. Had that army been joined to that of Dol Guldur, would Lorien have held? Who knows? In the event, the Ch. tells us, the army from DG was repulsed and retreated southward over Limlight, to be destroyed by the Ents in the Wold.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

only after Aragorn revealed himself in the Palantir did Sauron redirect forces to the southern front*

Did Sauron indeed relocate troops from Dol Guldur to Mordor? Is it in RC?
Why would he need it, I wonder - wasn't Mordor practically packed with orcs even after the Pelennor?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

No, not diverted from DG to Mordor; rather, the army from Udun and the Morannon, originally slated to march north and join with that of DG, was rerouted westward into northern Gondor. This was motivated (I speculate) by S's conviction that the Ring was in Gondor; but also by the military necessity of dealing with the Rohirrim, whom Saruman was supposed to have neutralized.

I don't know if this bit is in the excerpts from the Chronology ("Scheme") published in the RC, but it's in the complete document.

As to 'plenty of Orcs left'- well, Tolkien wasn't a general or a general-staff officer, but he spent enough time at war to be aware of a basic fact of armies: on the advance they can't be any bigger than their logistics train allows.

(One can just imagine the cursing and blows in Mordor's quartermaster corps that resulted when Lugburz moved up the whole timetable to 10 March!)

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

No, not diverted from DG to Mordor; rather, the army from Udun and the Morannon, originally slated to march north and join with that of DG, was rerouted westward into northern Gondor. This was motivated (I speculate) by S's conviction that the Ring was in Gondor; but also by the military necessity of dealing with the Rohirrim, whom Saruman was supposed to have neutralized.

Makes a lot of sense.
As for dealing with the Rohirrim: a see a slight problem.
I somehow don't see Orc infantry as being effective against trained cavalry. I doubt the Orcs could maintain rigid formation which is criucial for repulsing cavalry. So, this army from Morannon sent against the Rohirrim most likely was composed of Haradrim and Easterliing cavalry. (In fact, that's what Theoden had dealt with). But if it were the same contingent that was supposed to march against Lorien, of what use would the cavalry be in the Wood?

I don't know if this bit is in the excerpts from the Chronology ("Scheme") published in the RC, but it's in the complete document.

You were able to read the unpublished Chronology? Cool!

(One can just imagine the cursing and blows in Mordor's quartermaster corps that resulted when Lugburz moved up the whole timetable to 10 March!)

If Lugburz also changed the direction of the main blow from Lorien to Minas Tirith, that would lead to some cursing indeed.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

As for dealing with the Rohirrim: a see a slight problem.
I somehow don't see Orc infantry as being effective against trained cavalry. I doubt the Orcs could maintain rigid formation which is criucial for repulsing cavalry.

Actually, they did exactly the right thing- this was the army which blocked the Road to cut the City off from reinforcement/relief, and which according to Theoden's scouts had dug trenches across it and planted sharpened stakes- which the Rohirrim themselves acknowledged would break a cavalry charge. Fortunately for the good guys, they didn't know about the Stonewain Valley.