T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Boromir88]

Chances of getting two baddies: almost the same as getting one baddie on any other day.~Mac

And the chances of making a disastrous lynch (i.e. by lynching one of the remaining gifteds - sorry Agan, someone had to say it) offsets that chance of getting two with one. Don't get greedy.

[Cailín]

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.

Gollum is innocent. Sally is evil.

This shall be my epitaph.

[Boromir88]

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.~Cailin

Thanks for leaving us that, I trust because of it the critics will give you a gruesome and terrifying death.

I doubt I'll be back for the rest of the day, so...

++Fea

Don't double-lynch, that's what I'll leave you with.

[Macalaure]

This next post will be grossly generalising and depending on the roles of people who live, but maybe still worth something.

Case 1: Aganzir is a critic - how would the other critics react to the double-lynch idea? They certainly don't want it to happen, but not at all cost. They know one thing: Aganzir will be dead before the end. If we don't lynch her today, we will lynch her tomorrow or once we run out of other suspects. She will under no circumstances make it til the end. Therefore, she is not worth getting yourself into trouble for. The reaction I'm looking for: carefulness, saying that Aganzir is probably evil, maybe even adding points to it, but trying to dissuade from a double-lynch, as sneaky as possible. Sure, they could be against it more openly, or try to make themselves look good by wanting to lynch her, but I've got the feeling that the described way is a good place to find a critic - in this case.

Case 2: Aganzir is not a critic - how would the critics react then? They are for it. Definitely. How strongly? Well, they have the seer to hide behind and they have me as the prime scapegoat if it goes wrong. I'm looking for those who are for it but immediately provide a possible excuse for tomorrow. Of course, they could think that it is dangerous to burn one's fingers in this, but the circumstances are very promising.


And now let us see:

Lari

Doesn't say anything for a very long time. Fea is clearly guilty to her and she leans innocent for Aganzir, which is surprising clear. Guilty Aganzir still points towards her guilt. She votes for Fea, of course.

Boro

Unless you propose a double-lynch today, because whether Fea turns out critic or Walter, it won't change anything regarding Agan, and we'd essentially end up lynching her the next day anyway?

Note that Boro didn't say a word about double-lynching until he himself had a look at Aganzir.

And what if Fea has found the divo or one of the lovers? True, now that the Seer is gone, I think the Cobblers use is coming to an end, and maybe Fea is taking the noose for the critics.

But, a double lynch at this time could be dangerous, we were lucky on Day 1 it was only two ordos. I have no idea about Agan, considering what we have concluded about Fea, it doesn't look good that they were paired together by the seer. But we're talking about two dreams here, one we know was Fea, the other it's still up in there air. I'm not convinced he spotted two baddies in one night.

...

But anyway I hope you get the point, we have an hour and half left before the deadline. I say we take a sure shot with Fea, regroup, recharge, and definitely get more organized tomorrow. Trying a double lynch at this time, I think spells disaster.

The many (likely and unlikely) options he presents look suspicious if Aganzir is a critic. His clear stance against it (which he continues later) makes him look innocent again, because I doubt a companion of Aganzir would try to buy her just one more day that openly.

Gollum

Thoroughly confused while trying to catch up, which looks good for him in either way. Then:

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?

Might be I'm not entirely objective, but I think he sounds innocent. He later justly criticises Gwath for his post (below).

Brinn

I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt.

A guilty Aganzir could point to a guilty Brinniel. What does not fit is her "not 100% sure about Fea". A critic would put more focus on the guilt of Fea to divert people's eyes away from Aganzir, even if Fea is a critic, too.

Fea does look like the more guilty one since tgwbs pursued her more...but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target.

This is a good point, that I overlooked before. If tgwbs found Fea to be a cobbler and Aganzir a critic, why didn't he leave Fea be and went after Aganzir more? It could be the roles are in fact switched, it could be both are critics and you can only chase one at a time (usually), it could be tgwbs feared being too obvious and then dead, it could be he feared the cobbler more because she could expose him, it could be his dreams were actually different than I thought...

Kath

Also, a double lynch? I'm not sure that's a brilliant idea. We've already had one double lynch this game and it did us no good.

She is less clear than Boro, but more clear than the following Sally. She votes for Fea.

Sally

She went through tgwbs's posts and said she found the same as everyone. She does not mention Aganzir once. A guilty Aganzir strongly points towards a guilty Sally.

I'm not sure if I'm a fan of the double lynch idea, no matter who it includes.

This fits the scheme, especially with the omission of Aganzir, again.

I'm not going to fight a double lynch, but I'd just like to express my opinion against the idea.

And there's the desired carefulness...

Later she suggests Gollum and Cailineomer as candidates for a double lynch she could go with. She doesn't say why Aganzir is not an option. (Complete omission of her is more than I expected, to be honest.)
She also throws in a very vague suspicion of me that she will not pursue yet.

Gwath makes an excellent point about TGWBS possibly dreaming Agan. I would be amenable to lynching her toDay as well. Which is to say that I'm okay with a Fea lynch OR an Agan lynch, but I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double. Besides, I don't think enough people support it for it to be a good idea.

This is funny. I was just about to suggest Gwath and Sally as Aganzir's companions, but Sally taking up Gwath's point against Aganzir, out of all points against Aganzir that were flying around, is surprising.

Gwath

First, I think we are obligated to (at the very very least) seriously consider lynching our seer's most suspected - if only because he was the seer. To do otherwise would be irresponsible, and unfair to the seer.

Regarding Aganzir and Feanor o' the Peredhil: I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious." Given that tgwbs consistently pro-lynching-Fea from Day 1, the fact that he makes a sharp shift in his approach to Aganzir between Day 1 and Day 2 indicates to me that he may have dreamt of her in between, and not Fea. Day 1 he calls her reasonable, Day 2 he calls her "most guilty."

I guess, to conclude, I think Aganzir deserves as much attention as Fea - but I don't think a double lynch is in order - was that Mac that suggested that? That's crazy. Look what happened last time.

Alarm bells be a-ringing. He gives points against Aganzir and Fea but steps away from double-lynching them. After Gollum stepped on his toes:

Well - I guess this is technically true. Maybe I'm just squeamish about taking that kind of risk.

Oh, and I didn't say we kill both Agan and Fea, I just said we should seriously consider doing so. There is, as Aganzir pointed out, the possibility, however slight, that tgwbs did not dream of one or both of them. Maybe he only dreamt of innocents; it's possible.

Alarm bells be a-ringing more. He relativises his opinion instantly once challenged.
He then votes for Aganzir which is surprising, but could be explained by nervousness after Gollum's call.

Cailineomer

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly.

While I was looking for auto-excuses, this is surprisingly blunt.


So there.

Case 1:
Gwathagor (very suspicious)
Sally
Kath
Brinn
Lari
Boro (only a little suspicious)

Case 2:
Cailineomer
Gollum (both only a little suspicious)


I did this mostly because Aganzir was starting to convince me. Her replies showed just the right amount of defense, offense, outrage, and helpfulness. I would like to believe you Aganzir, really, but pretty much all evidence is against you (though Brinn's points are valid ones). The only thing that could really dissuade me is probably Fea's unlikely innocence.

Originally Posted by Boro

Don't get greedy.

But it's fun to!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The only thing that could really dissuade me is probably Fea's unlikely innocence.

As a funny little anecdote, last night I was asked to write something pertaining to the pair of boots I'm wearing. So I wrote something, and then I was told, "This is why nobody ever trusts you."

So I can't even wear shoes without garnering suspicion, if that tells you anything.

Like that I might be suspicious, but that I'm really very cuddly in secret.

[Macalaure]

We clearly need a vote count:

Sally -> Fea
Kath -> Fea
Aganzir -> Fea
Gwath -> Agan
Lari -> Fea
Fea -> Agan
Cailin -> Agan
Boro -> Fea

Fea 5, Agan 3

Left (5): Brinn, Shasta, Strongbow, me, Gollum

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

[insert obviously made up excuse as to why you should lynch me, not Agan]

--Agan

++Fea

[Aganzir]

That's impressive, Mac. Only a pity that I'm innocent.
However what I find funny is that I was about to say myself that sally's suggestion of lynching Cailín or Gollum didn't sound that bad.

I wonder what's going to happen if Bowie doesn't appear today. Or Shasta, but I think he will.

[Cailín]

Let me restate my reasons for my Agan vote:

I trust TGWBS would not leave us with ambiguous hints or information. This means that either he did not know any critics / cobblers by his time of death and just thought of Fea and Aganzir as the most suspicious characters, or he happened to peg two sinister characters in two nights. Rereading his posts, I can see why there are many around who are unwilling to risk assuming the second - Wild Guy seems uncertain and especially on Day 1 he acts unconvinced of Fea's guilt.

However, if Fea is guilty, I do not think we can risk it to keep Aganzir alive. Of course, Guy may not have dreamt of either, and his categorisation could have been just a reasonable and astute guess. Fea's guilt would not prove Aganzir's guilt, and Fea's innocence would only imply that TGWBS did not dream of any evil persons. In that case only can I see Aganzir survive another day, yet she would still be eligible for lynching in the future (her voting record is not very favourable, either). Perhaps that is enough for most to shrink away from a double-lynch. In my opinion, we have little to lose from it: the ordinary, yet talented singers get to kill two highly suspicious characters, while the critics can only eliminate one potential-gifted or innocent.

I can envision scenarios in which the double-lynch would turn against the village. However, I am feeling bold and reckless.

[Cailín]

Cross-posted with Fea's ambiguous retraction and suicidal vote. I'm not going to judge her motives, because we shall find out soon enough. It does not necessarily make me feel better about either girl.

[Aganzir]

Sally looks rather innocent. There's just the way she changed her opinion on Menel on day 1 because he retaliated Mac's suspicion by voting him that looks odd, but then again when she said it, also her earlier main suspect Nog had votes. So it doesn't look like jumping on bandwagon. And her reasoning sounds innocentish.
I don't think that her willingness to prevent a double lynch makes her look more innocent, but it doesn't make her look more suspicious either. Also a critic would have reasons to avoid double lynch even if a fellow wasn't involved - just to look good.
Her Gollum vote doesn't look very good given that first Brinn voted him randomly and then sally. Her reasoning is okay though - that Gollum didn't try to prevent a double lynch but refrained from voting.

Kath was planning to vote for Fea already on day 1 but voted Ilya. Overall she looks quite innocent too.

Gwath I think you were more sensible when you were still wavering about the double lynch. The wolves are the only ones who will benefit from it.

Originally Posted by sally

I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double.

Me neither, especially as it was Fea, not me, after whom tgwbs was all the time. That's why I don't understand why people (eg Cailín) seem to be willing to lynch me today and Fea only tomorrow. Besides if she's the cobbler it would be important to get rid of her as soon as possible even though the seer isn't alive anymore.

Cailín's vote makes me feel worse about her. I admit being biased and I might do the same if I was innocent and there were two people of whom it looked like the seer had dreamed, but here the only problem is that at least one of these people is innocent, and in addition to me only the wolves know it. That's why I can see the wolves as the most likely speakers in favour of a double lynch.

Originally Posted by Boro

i.e. by lynching one of the remaining gifteds - sorry Agan, someone had to say it

It's alright, I doubt anyone would believe me or the wolves kill me even if I said I was a gifted.

Why is it so quiet?