T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Boromir88]

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?~Mac

It was an early vote and you said he was playing careful. It looks like one of those generic suspicions you can apply to just about anyone (well I guess minus the phantom )

Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?

I did, sally.

Regarding what you said about Cailin:

It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.

Or one that has worked perfectly. With big risk you have a chance of a big reward, of course it can blow up in your face, but my question is why is Cailin's vote risky for a critic? It's the first vote, very early, and Nogrod is usually a safe choice early, as anyone may figure he's not typically a day 1 choice.

The bigger question is, what made Nog a Day 1 choice this time?

Ilya, while it is much appreciated all the research and re-posting of stuff, it makes our job a lot easier, you dear, are frightening me. It reminds me of what Brinn did not to long ago, and was extremely successful in leading her to a wolf victory.

Edit: crossed with Agan

[Brinniel]

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.

And if he doesn't count towards the tally, then it's really like he was killed...the only difference is that while the dead usually can't talk, he can. So when it comes down to numbers, we still had a loss last Night...am I right?

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel? He often gets lynched early and I'm irritated to see it happen again. The sudden turn-around on him which resulted in a double lynch is just as suspicious. Especially these players who seemed to be so certain of Noggie's innocence, they contributed to Menel's lynching (some even retracting). And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time. I know how it feels to die early several games in a row, and I don't think it was fair at all for Menel to be lynched so early.

Btw, what's so strange about Nogrod getting lynched on Day 1? It happened in Shasta's game and he was a werewolf. It happened in tp's game and he was a werewolf. So really if you go by record, lynching him on Day 1 seemed like a pretty good idea at the time...

[Boromir88]

Do

n't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good.~Agan

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

I'm not sure what to make of sally's retract at the end. Eventhough it didn't count, there is a look of innocence as it does look like an attempt to break a double lynch. Her retract post also looks like a rush to make it before the deadline. However, it didn't make the deadline, and it could just be a critic-sally making it look like a failed attempt to prevent a double lynch. In anyway this is hard to tell, we're talking about a matter of seconds here.

[Ilya]

Boro, ha, yeah, about half-way through the thing, I thought, "Oh gosh, this is exactly what Brinn did." Still, I'm not gonna try to not be helpful because of the way it looks. Tempering what I do to how others percieve me is what made me the target of suspicion in Fea's game.

It was selfish analysis, too. I needed it because I wasn't paying much attention to much of anyone on Day 1. Now, I have a clearer picture and even some suspicions.

Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do. Also, I feel like there was at least one critical hand in the all the Nogrod stuff I read and the other three were nowhere near that, and all of them make quite a deal of sense anyway.

The people who've tripped my radar are Sally, Agan, Lariren, Strongbow, and Cailin, and yes, I know there are only three critics so I'm wrong on at least two counts. The first three were the ones that really were instrumental on taking the Gwath/Nog opening sparring (which, when you look at it, is really nothing at all) and snowballing it. Lariren was just kinda agreeing and she eventually went in a different direction, but Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing. Bowie's points still strike me as odd, and I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing, while Cailin's post was just...strange. Haven't played with her before, so she's the one I suspect the least, and it kinda reminded me of Diamond's one weird post in Fea's last game anyway.

EDIT: Brinn, yes, we did take a hit in the tally, even if TP's still around to "help." I also would be happy to chronicle all of Menel's stuff, but I was kinda hoping someone else might do that.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinn

And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time.

Totally agreed. I also share your concern about everyone concentrating just on Nog's lynching.

Originally Posted by Boro

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

You're right but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't make sense to accuse someone of what they always do and that's why I found Nog's point against her weird.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing.

Technically it was tgwbs's retraction, not my vote, but well. In a way it was a mistake of timing - my fault for voting so late, but rather it was because I had no idea how many votes everyone had.

Originally Posted by Ilya on Bowie

I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing

Why?

[Strongbow]

Ok: Cobbler time. The reason I asserted that the Cobbler was a Day 2 problem was because there is more time for the Cobbler to reveal himself. In my experience the Cobbler is an artful dodger, especially when combined with a spy role. The probability that we lynch Walter Plinge toDay is fairly low, and while our critic catching capabilities are near as low, it's easier to spot that dodgy, flighty behavior on Day 2 or even Day 3.

Critics, however, are a priority to me.

Anyhow, I think that our Resident Ghost's death is striking. Who would want to kill someone so entertaining and good so early in the game?

My lack of voting was due to class. I wasn't aware that the DL had been pushed, or else I would have rushed to my next class to vote. Grrr...I'll be able to vote this Day coming.

[Cailín]

Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Brin

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.

Whatever. You know you love me.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do.

Give Fea some credit. She's a tricksy back-stabber if I ever saw one. She would totally play along with a ploy and then kill me. Especially if she thought the ploy was real. Or a cover for a gifted (Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover).

Anyway, some thoughts on the voting.

If Sally is a Critic, Gwath doesn't look great.

If Mac is, then Brin doesn't look great.

If Mac or Ilya is, then Sally doesn't look great.

If Mac or Ilya is, then Kath looks good.

Ilya's vote was at a time when it could've mattered, but it didn't. Instead it was for a brand new candidate.

Agan and TGWBS forged the tie, but neither realized that they were doing so.

Sally could have saved the day, but was too late. Should we hold that against her?

Gwath was the first to cast a second vote for someone. Fea and Boro pushed two others into a tie for the early lead. And looking back we can see that two of the three have already been proven innocent. Kath elevated the fourth person to multi-vote status. Brin and Sally padded Nog's lead.

And then there was the Menel comeback- me, Boro (-Mac, +Menel), TGWBS (-Fea, +Menel), and Sally late (-Nog, +Menel).

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to fully admit here that this is slightly defensive(if only to prove my point):
I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.

Plus, as its been said many times, I'm new. I don't know a lot of the history that goes with the game. I like a lot, don't get me wrong, but this whole knowing to vote for who on which day isn't something I've been through. I'm just trying to feel around and post.

And, even though its very far back, I did pick up on the whole divo quote but I assumed it was along the lines of Fea's post no one listened to either.

Now I need to read more and try to come up with more theories, but in the mean time I have to go to night class bio.

[satansaloser2005]

*sees the night kill, or lack thereof, sort of, kind of, and stuff*

Oh. My. Giddy. Aunt. Yes please!!!!!

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. )


Excuse me, I have to go bash my face against a brick wall for an hour due to the trainwreck that was yesterDay's voting. Feel free to relieve me of my position in the game while I'm gone.

(Off to reread the Day now, to see what I can see)

[Kath]

I'm actually heading for bed so I'm not going to post properly until tomorrow (RL) but I just wanted to pop in quickly with a couple of things. Firstly to complain about the fact that someone finally had the guts to kill off phantom first Night and it didn't succeed! I know he's a help to have around when innocent but surely this is just going to make his ego even bigger?

I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly.

I'm completely with you on that one Lariren!

Anyway, see you in a few hours.

[Macalaure]

Short comment now. More to say later.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm getting more scared of Mac every time he posts. There's something that reminds me awfully much of the Mac-wolf I've seen.
....
I don't know if he's always like that and I've just usually ignored it but those are the things I immediately connected his comment to.

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

Originally Posted by Brinn

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?

*nod of approval*

[Ilya]

Hey everybody: Is it another 48 hour day? Or was that a one-time thing?

Lariren: Hey, you don't have to apologize for being defensive. You've got the right to explain your thought process and you're totally right about posting in agreement and all that.

The Wild Man brought up some valid points about Brinn, too, which really makes me want to do a huge Menel recap. Unless anyone says they mind, I'm gonna clog the thread again.

Agan - It's just my read on him. Bowie's doesn't seem intimidated by more experienced players, and since TP wasn't a huge subject of discussion on Day 1, aside from his cryptic playing with Fea, it might've seemed like as good a time as any to remove the threat. That said, Bowie's post today helped me understand his logic, and I understand his reason for not voting, so I feel slightly better about both him and Lariren now that I've read more of them. Cailin still not so much.

[Ilya]

Give Fea some credit. She's a tricksy back-stabber if I ever saw one. She would totally play along with a ploy and then kill me. Especially if she thought the ploy was real. Or a cover for a gifted (Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover).

*shakes head* Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover. That right there is why the two of you are far better players than I.

[Ilya]

Once more into the breach, dear friends, once more!

Begin Page 1

Post 32 - Menel:

I'm here, though I don't have a whole lot to say. I wouldn't vote out the tricksy ones, devious though they may be. And our good phantom hasn't really said much yet, so there's nothing to go on for him either.

Post 36 - Agan:

Hi Menel. What about voting you out so I can get all the baddie roles?

Post 37 - Wild Man:

Menel - Why not drive out tricksy headache-maker? Someone must die. We know not who is critic. Ergo, it best to kill tricksy folk. They as likely as anyone to be critic, but if not, at least townsfolk remove headache. Townsfolk then can think clear.

Post 40 - Menel:

Oh, hello Aganzir.

Come now, who between us would be the best baddie anyhow, a human from the White City or someone who can drive people to mass panic by screeching?

And as for the guy who be tarzan, I suggest he take a bath. But to be honest, yes, some of the crazies could stand to be more helpful. Talk of triple-lynching can be risky, even as a joke. Thankfully, we wraiths lack a sense of humor.

End Page 1.

[Boromir88]

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. )~sally

We could attempt to lynch his ghost - I mean theoretically he's already dead and we wouldn't be losing another innocent body - just a loud uncorporeal voice. We'd have to devise another way of course, I've never heard of a lynched ghost before - we could try garlic? Wait, wrong thing.

Fea - Again, speak much, say little. This vote worst than Gwath, for Gwath formerly suspect Nog, whereas Fea not formerly suspect, or even at time suspect Menel, and push bandwagon. Wild Man suspicious.~tgwbs

I disagree, the only odd thing I've found about Fea is she hasn't been calling for my death. That's rather unusual, but other than that she's been Fea like...speaks in riddles, impossible to follow, seems to take an unnatural pleasure in chaos, but overall very Fea. I'm waiting on one more thing from her, if I see it, I would bet she's innocent, if not - well you can guess.

While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.~Lariren

Keep on keepin on, as a wise man liked to say. If you agree with something, agree with it, that doesn't make it silly. Makes it rather redundant. The more ideas said, the more pressure that is placed on someone and that can prove their innocence, or their wolvery. (Note: this is 100% biased because I like chatter - and lots of it)

Edit: xed since tp

[the guy who be short]

Sally - Voice no suspicion to start. Then, once Nog and Menel have 2 vote each, she suddenly say they both look suspicious! Seem like she want fuel bandwagon. Vote Nog despite suspect Menel more. However, claim this to avoid double lynch. Also, final attempt retraction to avoid double lynch. This make her seem more innocent. Overall, Wild Man neutral toward her.

Ilya - Throwaway vote in crucial position. This only mildly concerning.

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote? With retrospect, Wild Man no convince by her suspicion of Mac, on feeling. Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour! Overall, Wild Man worried.

Lariren - Wild Man see little reason to suspect.

Therefore Wild Man form following continuum, where inter-star line represent complete neutral:

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
***************
Lariren-Shastanis-Strongbow-Gollum
***************
Ilya-Mac-Cailineomer
Sally
Gwath
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

Now Wild Man sleep.

[Lariren Shadow]

So when "analysis" was mentioned this is what I did. Hope it helps shed light on anything, if not, then well that was a good amount of time gone. Forgive spelling errors, as Fea can attest to, I can't spell to save my life.

Page 1 Analysis:

The only thing that vaguely makes Nog a target for anyone is the phantom’s comment that Nog will help him catch the killers. This is of course if we don’t take the comment about Nog being the divo seriously(which not a lot of people did).

Page 2 Analysis:

The only thing I get is a growing animocity between Gwath and Nog from this page. Which has been stated. And the idea of a double lynch being good(though not intended) was actually presented by Nog on this page.

Page 3 Analysis:

Most on this page think he’s innocent, which apparently is not a common occurrence. Cailin votes for Nog based on his indecisiveness, though not sure where that even took place during the game so far. Interesting vote choice actually. The Wild Man thought he was innocent even though Nog accused Gwath based on nothing. Fea makes a good point about him being the voice of reason as well.

Page 4 Analysis:

The phantom suspects that Nog, Fea, Mac, and Boro are up to something. But from what I’ve read there hasn’t been that much going on between them. Agan then comments on how the behavior of Nog is supicious based on the faulty logic of Gwath’s guilt and the logic of the double lynch.

It seems people latched onto Agan’s comments about those accusations. After that Shasta thinks of voting for Nog but doesn’t. Then the whole Fea and the phantom makes people look through the comments and try to find something. Not sure if this was to make Nog look guilty or not, but it was an interesting move by both.

In a side note, I made the spectacular post that says Nog is the seer on this page. Go me. Though I don't think this was by any means reasons for the votes for him(or at least that people mentioned).

Page 5 Analysis:

Pretty much the Fea and the phantom comments keep going with Boro asking about them then Menel saying that everyone else should not be left out. My comment about almost voting for Nog was based off of what Agan said about the Gwath accusations. That’s not to say I still don’t slightly suspect him anyway.

Brinn and Sally both think that Nog is off by this page. Though from reading it doesn’t really seem like he’s done much other than talk about who he thinks is guilty and comment/spare with Gwath. It is said that both Brinn and Sally think Nog is up to something based on his vote and his comments about Gwath. Kath also makes comments and actually didn’t think that what Nog said about Gwath was accusititory but also not sure about Nog’s switching from “voting the quiet one off” to “voting for Sally”. Should be noted Sally did say she was not just suspicious of Nog because he voted for her.

It seems Nog was always in the back of people’s minds as being “off’ or “not right”. By the end of page 5 only Cailin and Gwath had voted for him, for their own reasons(though not really sure what Calian's was).

Page 6 Analysis:

Brinn starts off the page with saying that out of all of those she could vote for Nog was giving off the most wolf vibes. Hence her vote, which, looking back at what she thought, didn’t seem out of the blue. Sally later then votes Nog to stop the double lynch. She was always suspicious of Nog so it seemed logical. Then tgwbs claims this is how Nog is all the time. Makes sense, if claim is true(I have no idea). He seems to have tried to stop the Nog lynching. Ilya than voices that Nog was put on her radar because of what other people have said. Pretty much this is what happened. People tended to side with Gwath about the accusations, then some(alright I did) listened to Agan’s comment about Nog and then people just started going with it.

As for the rest: Agan reasonably votes Nog. And the phantom made a remark about Nog possibly being the cobbler right after the minute turned so that made no sense.

What I have to gleamed from this information: Gwath and Nog began trying to incriminate the other. People began to side with Gwath because something in Nog’s language made him the more reasonable wolf. Agan picked up on that, Shasta did too(though didn't vote for Nog), and then people started voting for Nog with Cailin. Pretty much that vote is the only one that I can’t explain away. Everyone else’s made sense: Gwath would have voted on Nog because of the earlier comments, Brinn made a good case, as did Agan and Sally.

Everyone’s votes for Nog were backed up by what they thought and logical, except for Cailin’s, or is that normal for her/them?

X Posted: with Brinn and the phantom(is that the right comment?).