Hobbit delayed by a year?

[Tuor in Gondolin]

At TheOneRing.net they don't seem to agree with this rumor.

Rumors Abound - Hobbit Delayed until 2012? FALSE
December 19th, 2008

Rumors are hitting the web today that the release of The Hobbit will not be until 2012. We are trying to independently confirm/deny this rumor so look for an update shortly! Thanks to the Ringers who are sending in the links to various news stories on the topic.
UPDATE

We have received confirmation from the source of all sources, GDT himself stating that this rumor is NOT TRUE. Rest easy folks, it’s not happening.

[davem]

Disney pulls out the Narnia franchise

http://www.reuters.com/article/enter...4BN0M520081224

Further challenging "Treader" may be a waning of the pricey children's fantasy genre. When the "Harry Potter" series topped the book charts and then filled movie theaters, studios began snapping up fantasy manuscripts as quickly as they could. When "The Lord of the Rings" showed it was possible for adults to enjoy the fare as well -- and produced the box-office results to prove it -- Hollywood's fascination with the genre intensified.

But no other fantasy adventure films have shown that kind of box office punch. Earlier this year, Warners and New Line hoped they were launching a franchise with "The Golden Compass," but the adaptation of the Philip Pullman trilogy tanked domestically. The film grossed just $70 million domestically and the co-production partners declined to go forward with a second installment despite the fact the film did take in more than $300 million overseas.

....and for that very reason I haven't ruled out the possibility that TH may be delayed - whatever TORn or GDT say - PJ isn't directing, people have seen this kind of thing in other movies - dragons, epic battles, etc - & 'children's fantasy fims' are not popular. Which last point brings us back to the old question - how much will they need to alter the story in order to win over an adult audience? No guarantee that TH won't follow Prince Caspian - bigger budget, smaller return.

[Morthoron]

Delaying The Hobbit film until 2012 makes perfect sense. I believe either the Aztec or Mayan world calendar indicates that 2012 is the end of the world; therefore, between the Aztec calendar and the Mexican Del Toro, we have a perfect storm in an apocalyptic sense.

Just think, you can have an oblivion party right at the theater:

"It's the end of the world as we know it,
But the Hobbit's fine..."

[Sauron the White]

Is it just coincidence that those who seem to take the most pleasure in hoping for a delay of the next Middle-earth films are also those who did not like the last three?

just asking....

there is are too much money to be made here for these films not to come to pass.

[davem]

Originally Posted by Sauron the White

there is are too much money to be made here for these films not to come to pass.

That's probably what Disney said when they got the option of co-producing the Narnia movies. First they were going to do all seven books, then it became a trilogy (LWW, PC & Dawn Treader), now they've bailed - because of diminishing returns. Don't assume there's money to be made in a Hobbit movie. You might want to check out the link in my post on the Compass & LotR comparison thread http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=220

As far as successful franchises go, I suspect everyone 'in the know' would have included Narnia after the performance of LWW, alongside LotR....

EDIT Let's face it - if TH was a stand alone work, without the LotR connection, no studio would touch it at the moment - a movie about a midget who gets dragged off by a wizard & thirteen Dwarves & not a single female character in the whole story. And I suspect that without a major re-write & the introduction of some familiar faces it won't do the business. It's not been picked up for what it is in its own right, but purely as a way of getting LotR movie fans back into the cinemas - & most of them have a very clear about the kind of movie they want to see - & that's not the story Tolkien wrote...

[Nogrod]

I think they would love to do the Hobbit-movie just because of the money it would produce them. It's just that in this "post credit-crunch" -world no one is willing to invest anything on anything that doesn't materialise itself in a day or two. Let's forget the quartal economy: the truth of the financial markets is day by day now. So nothing that takes time gets invested in.

And that to be sure is the problem of our modern capitalism. The quartal economy was a bad thing but this Day-to-Day economy is even worse. So what happens to any project where you can't cash yourself out within a day? So if it was that the oil-firms were reluctant to invest in new refineries a year ago now the film companies are afraid to invest in movies. Both make weekly/quartal losses for future gains but in this climate no one wishes to take the risk as the investers are nervous for any signs of spending instead of gaining immediately...

[Tuor in Gondolin]

I'm rather curious why Disney turned down Narnia movies, since by the
records below it seems that the movie more then covered production costs
U.S. domestically and more then doubled expenses (including
worldwide) with PC. And this doesn't seem to include other revenue
sources (books, dvds, cable tv rights, etc.). Why wouldn't further films
also be good revenue sources?

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - Box Office Data, Movie ...Total US Gross, $141,621,490. International Gross, $277,868,796. Worldwide Gross, $419,490,286
===================================

The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe
Domestic: $291,710,957 39.2%
Foreign: $453,300,315 60.8%
Worldwide: $745,011,272
===================================