Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Thinlómien]

I'm not going to make a proper analysis as it would take ages and I don't feel it would be of that much use. I'll just post here the things that caught my attention:

Nogrod suspected
Gollum and Gwath, just a little, for dropping in and voting at the last minute on the previous Day. Ended up suspecting Gollum more than Gwath.
Suspected Kath.
(Half-jokingly) suspected Lommy and Legate of loverism.

Nogrod thought innocent
Mith, Brinn and Gaunt.

I don't think Nogrod's suspicions look seerish. He's too uncertain about them and/or has too many reservations. His list of innocents then... maybe? Maybe something in the way he talked about Brinn and Mith and Gaunt made the wolves think he had dreamt of two of them? I think he at least supported Mith and Brinn's innocence without much reservations... Hm....

Others' attitudes to Nogrod
Gwathagor considered him innocentish.
Rune was unsure about him but inclined to consider him innocent.
Legate didn't find him particularly suspicious.
Gollum suspected him.
Brinn wasn't enthusiastic to lynch him.
Gaunt argued with him and suspected him a little.
Kath found him suspicious but retracted much of that later when Nogrod corrected her.
Lommy found him innocentish.
The rest did not talk about him yesterDay.

I don't know what to make of this. It really doesn't look like anyone would have had especially many or few reasons to kill him. Except that Brinn and Rune and if there were other people who did so too would be rather two-faced if they were wolves: say they don't want to lynch Nog and then go and kill him. I'm not saying it's impossible or even improbable, but it's rather nasty.

Nogrod tried to interpret the rules a few times. Maybe the wolves know more than we do and killed him because he was getting too close to the truth about the rules? (Like, maybe I and Legate really are lovers and were scared he would convince others that his so very serious theory is correct? ) He didn't have any very clear theories though, except the possibility of lovers, which I myself consider unlikely. I think we would know if this was a lover game and I think no mod would start the game with just two baddies who both die and lose the game if one of them dies. Looks a little too unfair.

Okay, in conclusion: I think Nogrod was killed to a) remove a smart guy, b) to confuse us or c) because he was suspected of seerism and at least two of Mith, Brinn and Gaunt are innocent.


edit: xed with Golly

[Diamond18]

Nogrod, dead, eh? Well that can only mean one thing; the culprit(s) are quiet people! Who fear Nogrod's searching eye and also find it annoying to have to read all his posts in the short time they have online before they have to make a post/vote. So, you know, I don't know who around here could possibly fit that bill...

In all seriousness though, I do kind of find Nogrod to be an odd choice for a kill. He garners a lot of attention and would be someone you could try to rustle up a lynch mob for. The only reason I can think of to kill him at night is suspicion of seerdom.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Okay, in conclusion: I think Nogrod was killed to a) remove a smart guy, b) to confuse us or c) because he was suspected of seerism and at least two of Mith, Brinn and Gaunt are innocent.

I lean more towards option C (obviously, as stated) so I might hold off on voting for those people, at least for this Day.

[Diamond18]

Oh, yeah, almost forgot. Speaking of my vote, it's going to have to come in the next 6 or so hours because I won't be online again before Day end. I'm going to paint and think things over.

[Brinniel]

Hmm...Nogrod's death is interesting indeed. A surprise simply because I kinda expected someone with little trails to be killed...

Anyways, where is everyone? Five hours into Day 3 and only a few posts. It's too quiet.

I took a nap and feel a bit refreshed, so I'll have some time to take a better look at people before I turn in for bed. I'll also have time to post later on, though I will still have to vote about four hours early. Meh, the deadline's just at an inconvenient time for me...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Let me join the choir. . . Nogrod does seem like an odd choise as he almost always end up getting lynched if just let alone, of course he could (like Lommy says) have gotten close to some truth. However I see little reason to belive that is the case, do you not think that it is simply because they want to confuse us? That or they might share Nogrod views about a quiet village being easy to hide in, of course there is also the possibility that it is the result of some twisted version of the Oedipus Complex and that would leave Lommy as the killer.

In short: I belive they are trying to confuse us.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

of course there is also the possibility that it is the result of some twisted version of the Oedipus Complex and that would leave Lommy as the killer.

Or better yet, Lommy and Legate conspired to kill him in a twisted lover's pact to get rid of the [furry] lady's father should he raise any objections....

Hey it could happen. Lynch them! Lynch them both!

(Though that may just be the paint fumes talking.)

[Brinniel]

YesterDay's voting:

Rune: ++Mith (Mith 1)
Brinn: ++Groin (Mith 1, Groin 1)
Gollum: ++Nogrod (Mith 1, Groin 1, Nogrod 1)
Diamond: ++Brinn (Mith 1, Groin 1, Nogrod 1, Brinn 1)
Groin: ++Lommy (Mith 1, Groin 1, Nogrod 1, Brinn 1, Lommy 1)
Mith: ++Legate (Mith 1, Groin 1, Nogrod 1, Brinn 1, Lommy 1, Legate 1)
Legate: ++Brinn (Mith 1, Groin 1, Nogrod 1, Brinn 2, Lommy 1, Legate 1)
Kath: ++Legate (Mith 1, Groin 1, Nogrod 1, Brinn 2, Lommy 1, Legate 2)
Gwath: ++Groin (Mith 1, Groin 2, Nogrod 1, Brinn 2, Lommy 1, Legate 2)
Lommy: ++Groin (Mith 1, Groin 3, Nogrod 1, Brinn 2, Lommy 1, Legate 2)
Nogrod: ++Legate (Mith 1, Groin 3, Nogrod 1, Brinn 2, Lommy 1, Legate 3)
Gaunt: ++Groin (Mith 1, Groin 4, Nogrod 1, Brinn 2, Lommy 1, Legate 3)

Did not vote: Shasta

Thoughts:

Not sure what to think about Rune's vote, I don't see why Mith's suspicious. I didn't see Gollum or Di give reasons behind their votes...I'd like to hear some explanation. If you could label players as suspicious by vote alone, that'd have to be Lommy (who brought Groin to the lead) and Gaunt (who came from nowhere and confirmed Groin's death).

A comment about Legate's vote:

Originally Posted by Legate

I was of course not taking this seriously, but anyway, why are you saying this? This is silly, and it fits this un-conflict-y pattern of you too - it's that you so un-problematically accept the pattern that is outlined here for you (i.e. in this case, somebody says you are suspicious, and you in fact are nodding to him and unconflictingly accept his proposal, so to say).

I think you took this comment the wrong way...I know your comment wasn't serious and my response wasn't supposed to be serious either, hence the smiley face. But I don't exactly understand why you voted me...because I said go ahead and lynch me? I don't get why you would think being unconflicting is suspicious...I feel like that's something I've alway done regardless of role. This may be WW, but I try not to butt heads too much. I just think your vote for me seems faulty.

As of now...

Those who feel innocentish:
Mith
Kath
Gwath

Those who I want to hear more from:
Diamond
Gollum
Shasta (though I could also put him in the innocentish category simply because he seems to participate more than he has whenever he's not an ordo)

Those I want to take a better look at:
Lommy
Legate
Gaunt
Rune

[Diamond18]

Well I have no more time tonight, so I'm going to vote.

++Legate

[Gwathagor]

I'm going to be busy for most of toDay, so I'll probably vote when I wake up in 8 hours or so.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, I am around at last, and I will probably have chance to be around for the rest of the Day. I have read through yesterDay, but maybe I should re-read again in the light of Nogrod's death. To be honest, at one moment I thought he could be a Wolf - but not to a very strong point. Anyway...

I am now starting to wonder about Gollum, because if he is one of the baddies, I can well imagine him killing Nogrod. Depending who would be the other person, of course, but still...

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

Wow! This comes as a complete surprise! This completely alters my view on Nogrod.

I could possibly imagine a Gollum-Wolf posting this, too, like "giving his hands away from the thing". Anyway, I think I could put Gollum on my suspicion list, and I'm going to observe him - I'll take a look at his older posts, too; there is not much of them (or they are not long), to get some better idea about him.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't think Nogrod's suspicions look seerish. He's too uncertain about them and/or has too many reservations.

Now when it comes to the reasons for his kill, yes, I think so. Also, when mentioning Rune, I don't think he would be the one to kill Nog like that in this situation.

Nogrod tried to interpret the rules a few times. Maybe the wolves know more than we do and killed him because he was getting too close to the truth about the rules? (Like, maybe I and Legate really are lovers and were scared he would convince others that his so very serious theory is correct? ) He didn't have any very clear theories though, except the possibility of lovers, which I myself consider unlikely. I think we would know if this was a lover game and I think no mod would start the game with just two baddies who both die and lose the game if one of them dies. Looks a little too unfair.

Well honestly, I hope nobody takes that seriously here - although he brought this theory up so many times... hmm... possibly this may have been understood as a Seerish hint? However in that case, the likely reason of his kill would have been to frame you and me Which - now smileys aside - is not as funny idea.

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Nogrod, dead, eh? Well that can only mean one thing; the culprit(s) are quiet people! Who fear Nogrod's searching eye and also find it annoying to have to read all his posts in the short time they have online before they have to make a post/vote. So, you know, I don't know who around here could possibly fit that bill...

In all seriousness though, I do kind of find Nogrod to be an odd choice for a kill. He garners a lot of attention and would be someone you could try to rustle up a lynch mob for. The only reason I can think of to kill him at night is suspicion of seerdom.

For the reasons... I am not really sure, but the most logical view of mine would be that the killers are indeed some quiet-ish people who decided to get rid of him. If it were Gollum, as I said above, I could imagine that - depending just whether he'd convince the other person to pick Nogrod as well. I am not sure about the idea of seerishness, but it is possible (cf. above), as well as the idea of creating confusion. It may as well be that it is several or all of these reasons for a kill at once.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

A comment about Legate's vote:

I think you took this comment the wrong way...I know your comment wasn't serious and my response wasn't supposed to be serious either, hence the smiley face. But I don't exactly understand why you voted me...because I said go ahead and lynch me? I don't get why you would think being unconflicting is suspicious...I feel like that's something I've alway done regardless of role. This may be WW, but I try not to butt heads too much. I just think your vote for me seems faulty.

Nope, I voted you because of the other reasons I stated earlier in my posts, and many times, about your "un-conflicty behaviour" and such. I did not give much weight to that "lynch me" comment, I merely quoted it, and it did not have that much to do with the choice to vote you itself.

Originally Posted by Runne son of Bjarrne

Let me join the choir. . . Nogrod does seem like an odd choise as he almost always end up getting lynched if just let alone, of course he could (like Lommy says) have gotten close to some truth. However I see little reason to belive that is the case, do you not think that it is simply because they want to confuse us? That or they might share Nogrod views about a quiet village being easy to hide in, of course there is also the possibility that it is the result of some twisted version of the Oedipus Complex and that would leave Lommy as the killer.

In short: I belive they are trying to confuse us.

Well, yes, all in all, I would probably be most inclined to agree with the idea of confusing being the aim of the baddies after all. That's not to say, as have written above, that it can't be connected with several other reasons for picking Nog.

Originally Posted by Diamond

Or better yet, Lommy and Legate conspired to kill him in a twisted lover's pact to get rid of the [furry] lady's father should he raise any objections....

*Rolleyes...*

But, then, anyway - would you please care to explain your vote, Diamond? Except for "lynch them", I saw no particular reason for the vote, and sure what you said was not meant as serious reason for vote? Or was it?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Gollum Gollum...

Here be something from his postsssiess. Despite the fact of being a newbie, I cannot simply let go that he has quite bad habit of not saying almost anything at all. His last post yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

Crud, gotta go! No explanation for my vote!

++Nogrod

Okay, no time, no explanation, fine. But toDay his first post:

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

Wow! This comes as a complete surprise! This completely alters my view on Nogrod.

Great, it makes perfect sense that Gollum does not suspect Nogrod anymore (of course ) but, wouldn't he care to say what was his reason to vote Nogrod, since he didn't give it yesterDay? At least now then.

Besides that, he mentions technically just three people he suspected: me, Lommy, Nogrod. And Groin, although that is just a mention. Well, in general, his posts are not saying much.

Gollum, I know this is your first game, so okay if you are getting yourself into it, but if you perhaps could elaborate at least a little what do you think about others, too, respectively, what do you think even about those you named, because even that is very little beyond "I suspect him".

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

YesterDay's voting:


Not sure what to think about Rune's vote, I don't see why Mith's suspicious.

That is fine, it is not like I suspected her more than you anyways so maybe I should have voted differently. Maybe it is just the style that Mith plays that confuses me, she pops up a few times and with some small posts which are mostly uncontrovertial or at least in my view not really creating much of disciution. Anyways I will not be voting for her again today, that would not be fair unless somehthing major happens.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

A comment about Legate's vote:

I think you took this comment the wrong way...I know your comment wasn't serious and my response wasn't supposed to be serious either, hence the smiley face. But I don't exactly understand why you voted me...because I said go ahead and lynch me? I don't get why you would think being unconflicting is suspicious...I feel like that's something I've alway done regardless of role. This may be WW, but I try not to butt heads too much. I just think your vote for me seems faulty.

If you do not see why unconflicting is suspicious then I can understand why you do not understand me, I think it is relative well known tactic for the evil doers to be seen and yet stay clear of too many enemies. An ordo on the other hand is a bit more free and not carring, of course non of us wants to get lynched, but I think you are even more afraid of it if you are evil.

Anyways I think Legate's vote was reasonable.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

That is fine, it is not like I suspected her more than you anyways so maybe I should have voted differently. Maybe it is just the style that Mith plays that confuses me, she pops up a few times and with some small posts which are mostly uncontrovertial or at least in my view not really creating much of disciution. Anyways I will not be voting for her again today, that would not be fair unless somehthing major happens.

.

I don't see what is so confusing Rune. I have job with near standard office hours. At the time you voted for me I had been either asleep or at work since the start of play other than for a short time at lunch. Where was the scope for making more than a check in post. Really you are most unreasonable.

I believe either Lommie or Legate and probably both are up to no good. If Lommie were a traitor it makes sense that she would want Nogrod out of the way.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't see what is so confusing Rune. I have job with near standard office hours. At the time you voted for me I had been either asleep or at work since the start of play other than for a short time at lunch. Where was the scope for making more than a check in post. Really you are most unreasonable.
.

So what if you have work thos hours? I had to vote at that time and then I cannot start taking into account when everybody is working, that would leave me with only students to vote for. . . how is that fair?
My vote was based on what I had seen until then and is that not what we are supposed to do?

[Mithalwen]

You generalised from one post and say it is not personal? I am not saying don't vote for me but don't make out that my behaviour is odd whane it is the only way I could behave. It really seem vindictive. Why not vote for me again now and have done with it?