Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Isabellkya]

Mith -> Gwath
Boro -> Lalwende
Fea -> Boro


o.O

I'm a Cobbler, because I said you could be?

[Isabellkya]

Voting time..

++Nogrod

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch me, kkthx. (Vzv, I'm supposed to be a god o' rain, drop the /f/. )

All right, being serious . . .

Voting innocent: McCaber, Izzy, Mac, Mith

A Wolf-on-Wolf vote on DAY 1 is possible, but I don't think this one is. I'll explain in a separate post. In any case, the way they're posting toDAY corroborates their innocent auras. Speaking of posting . . .

Posting innocence: Nogrod's DAY 1 antics was rather suspicious, I would have voted for him yesterDAY (were I around then . . . ), but now his votes indicate his earnestness to get a Wolf-pelt today. He had me particularly and especially convinced with 166. Which means I'll more likely vote for Brinniel toDAY. But I'll try to get something original from my mind, too, so don't worry.

Boro looks rather earnest, too, but his feeling 'chummy' with Nogrod raises my eyebrows. A bit. But he's probably innocent.

Nerwen feels innocent, too.

More later, I'll have to chew page 6 properly, first.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Why I believe the killers of Despair-taichou are innocent.

(Borrowing Nerwen's voting list: )

Rikae --> Sally (1:19 AM GMT).
Shasta --> Boro (6:42 AM)
Brinniel --> Mac (1:27 PM)
Gwath --> Rikae (1:49 PM)
CaptainofDespair --> Day One (2:29 PM)
McCaber --> CaptainofDespair (3:35 PM)
Lalwendë --> Brinniel (3:46 PM)
Feanor of the Peredhil --> Boro (04:02 PM) (Boro 2)
Isabellkya --> CaptainofDespair (04:41 PM) (CoD 2)
Kath --> Brinn (04:41 PM) (Brinn 2)
Mac --> CaptainofDespair (4:56 PM) (CoD 3)
Nogrod --> Gwath (4:48 PM)
Sally --> Boro (4:59 PM) (Boro 3)
Mithalwen --> CaptainofDespair (4:59 PM) (CoD 4)
Boro --> Lalwendë (4:59) PM

I agree with the chappies who say the most innocent are those who voted for him last, but there are a lot more (and less damaging) people to vote for. Wolf-on-Wolf votes, in my opinion, happen only when there is less chance of there being a bandwaggon in the Wolf's 'favour.' It could be masked as vendetta votes (either due to gaming history or disagreement with strategy or whatever reason I may have forgotten) since it's less likely that vendetta votes are followed by the masses.

Therefore, I would bet my eyes (my precious bloodline limit Sharingan) that the four are innocent.

In any case, like I said, I like the way they're posting right now.

As for my suspicions:

• Nogrod's post 166 re Brinniel has convinced, like I said before. Because of this I am highly likely to vote for her.
  
  
• Gwath is rather twisty. Hehe. Meaning he seems to start with the premise that Nogrod is indeed a Wolf:

  However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. (Gwath 168)

  and then kinda goes on from there (198). Hey, I hate DAY 1s, too, man, but at least I listen to DAY 1 theories. Would you rather have us pulling names out of our hats? You vote for who you think the most suspicious is, no matter how you reach that conclusion. (Well, an innocent does. So far as I know . . . )
  
  Hmm . . . his defence of this:

  It seems obvious to me that Nogrod is making a concerted effort to find arguments against me where very few exist. His points can be summarized as follows:
  
  1. Nogrod is inclined to find me guilty because I am making assertions about other people, which I profess to not doing when I am a wolf, playing "low-key." If I were a wolf, he implies, I would do the opposite of what I claim to do as a wolf. Because I am doing the opposite (i.e. I am making points about others), I must be a wolf. This, at least, is the implication.
  
  The first problem in this argument (albeit an implied argument) is that it argues that I am a wolf based on the assumption that I am a wolf.
  
  The second problem is that he misdefines "low-key". "Low-key" does not mean silence or lack of discourse. It means that I am careful not to draw unecessary attention to myself. Lack of discourse is obvious, and therefore not low-key.
  
  2. According to Nogrod, it is strange for me to profess to "thinking on-screen."
  
  However, he purports to doing much the same thing in post #163: "I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay." There's nothing weird about this. Organizing one's thoughts by posting makes a lot of sense.
  
  3. Because I claim to be a low-key wolf, my statement in a later post that I am not trying to fly under the radar - in other words, not trying to play low-key - looks mighty suspicious.
  
  Actually, I agree with him here. I don't like, however, that he makes much of the chills and shivers that my post sends down his spine. Appeal to the emotion is an effective rhetorical device, but it's not helpful here.
  
  Overall, this post of Nogrod's seems forced and exaggerative. (Gwath)

  Yeah, I found his post a bit facetious, but it is DAY 1 'evidence' and is therefore entitled to some benefit of the doubt. At least it gets discussion moving in a better direction for the village, than, say, doing IC banter. But your defence was simply . . . *shakes head* All this talking about what you might do if you were one or other, what you think he might think of what you're doing, etc. (which you did twice--once yesterDAY and this now toDAY) and rehashing DAY 1 discussion (I thought you hated DAY 1s, why bring them here in DAY 2?) is just *shakes head some more*.
  
  
• The Fea-Shasta affair is exactly the cloak for a Wolf-on-Wolf interaction I'm wary of. Easier to survive in your own little world, after all. The cold hard world is cruel, it bitess.
  
  

[Nerwen]

[QUOTE=Nilpaurion Felagund;567769][*]Gwath is rather twisty. Hehe. Meaning he seems to start with the premise that Nogrod is indeed a Wolf:

However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. (Gwath 168)

Quick correction: the list in question was by the known wolf CaptainofDespair, not Nogrod.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod.
EDIT2: Fixed quotes.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Quick correction: the list in question was by the known wolf CaptainofDespair, not Nogrod. (Nerwen)

Ach so. I was confused what with that statement coming so hard upon the heels of his strong accusation of Nogrod.

[Macalaure]

Mith -> Gwathagor
Boro -> Lal
Fea -> Boro
Izzy -> Nogrod
Gwath -> Nogrod (Nog 2, Boro, Lal, Gwath 1)
Caber -> Sally (Nog 2, Sally, Boro, Lal, Gwath 1)
Rikae -> Caber (Nog 2, Caber, Sally, Boro, Lal, Gwath 1)

There's no better way to give only two wolves voting power than to spread the votes like that.

[satansaloser2005]

Shoot shoot shoot shoot! *mutters and flails* Back in five minutes with THE most watered down "what I think" post ever.



I'm still wondering why everyone (well, not everyone, but you know what I mean) thinks Gwath is so guilty. I'll have a look at it toNight and see where that vibe seems to be coming from.

Back in five. Ish. Hopefully less.

EDIT: x'd, I'm sure.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I'm a Cobbler, because I said you could be?

No, but because you say I'm trying to get the rangers to defend me. It could be a defence mechanism for a cobbler to bounce their own tricks back onto someone else who has been more active? And Boro does that too.

[Gwathagor]

Since, at this point, there's no question in my mind who I am going to vote for, I may as well do it now.

++Nogrod

His arguments against me have, from the start, been forced, illogical, and exaggerative. I find him highly suspicious.

EDIT: Crossed with Nilpaurion

[Rikae]

Nilp (and Brinn) what is this about Boro/Nog chumminess? Are you suggesting they are wolves together? That doesn't seem particularly likely, and it seems even less likely that, if they were, they would let any obvious "chumminess" show (in fact, I would expect one to get the other lynched, more probably).
Or are you suggesting that one is a wolf "buttering up" the other one? Does either of you have any specific quotes you'd like to point to? As it stands, this allegation of "chumminess" looks suspiciously vague and makes me uneasier about both Brinn and Nilp (especially Nilp, because he repeated Brinn's wording without adding to it, and while claiming to suspect her).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilp (and Brinn) what is this about Boro/Nog chumminess? Are you suggesting they are wolves together? That doesn't seem particularly likely, and it seems even less likely that, if they were, they would let any obvious "chumminess" show (in fact, I would expect one to get the other lynched, more probably).
Or are you suggesting that one is a wolf "buttering up" the other one? Does either of you have any specific quotes you'd like to point to? As it stands, this allegation of "chumminess" looks suspiciously vague and makes me uneasier about both Brinn and Nilp (especially Nilp, because he repeated Brinn's wording without adding to it, and while claiming to suspect her). (Rikae who has never copied me.)

After a more thorough reading of Boro's 208 I must take the 'chumminess' comment back. I said it before (while skimming page 6) cos this:

But I really don't like Gwath's last post against Nogrod. His primary reasons are from Day 1:

That's something he said at the beginning of Day 1, and I'm sure he'd admit were pretty weak. I mean you're not going to find any "quality" reasons to vote for someone on Day 1 and this was something Nogrod pointed out early.

Again something Nogrod pointed out early, and I'm not sure how that makes him a wolf.

Goes back to the "low-key" argument.

Umm, no they do.

Yes, a little over-reaction there? (Boro88)

and totally failed to notice this:

Right now I'm unsure about Gwath and Nogrod. I don't like the way Nogrod went after Brin earlier today, because I think it's way out there. (Boro176)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

His arguments against me have, from the start, been forced, illogical, and exaggerative. I find him highly suspicious.

Forced? tsk-tsk... I already told you the nature of them, testing whether they would hold. And looking at how you will react to them.

Illogical? No way. Sorry. Very much logical indeed (which doeasn't mean they are correct as the premises need to be correct for a deduction to bring forwards a true outcome - and we don't yet know the truth-value of the premises).

Exaggerative? That's in your eyes my friend. I'd like to remind you that the wolves think they're under tons of pressure when they in fact are not.

So you find me suspicious because I have suspected you? Retaliation then? If you're an inocent that's very bad playing. If you're a wolf I'd understand, but a good wolf would also know better if not under a direct death-threat.


Next stops, reconsidering Brinn & looking at Sally...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Forced? tsk-tsk... I already told you the nature of them, testing whether they would hold. And looking at how you will react to them.

Illogical? No way. Sorry. Very much logical indeed (which doeasn't mean they are correct as the premises need to be correct for a deduction to bring forwards a true outcome - and we don't yet know the truth-value of the premises).

Exaggerative? That's in your eyes my friend. I'd like to remind you that the wolves think they're under tons of pressure when they in fact are not.

So you find me suspicious because I have suspected you? Retaliation then? If you're an inocent that's very bad playing. If you're a wolf I'd understand, but a good wolf would also know better if not under a direct death-threat.

This is no good, Nogrod. 1. I found at least three instances of poor logic and outlined them in that really big long post. 2. I call your arguments forced largely because of the poor logic. 3. However, the exaggerative element is, as you say, somewhat subjective.

Ok, lunchtime for me now. I'll see you all toMorrow.

[McCaber]

Voting time!

++sally

for reasons already explained.

Now the rush comes...

EDIT: crossed with Gwath

[Macalaure]

Worried about:
Boro(+1) - still don't like his behavior at the end of last day and has said a few worrying things today.
Brinn

Slightly worried about:
Fea(-1) - still don't know what to do with her, but I somehow feel a Feawolf would act differently.
Gwath(-1) - even though some seem to think differently, I think his posts today have looked more innocent than guilty.
Sally(-1) - her vote looks bad, but she hasn't done anything today to make me more suspicious.

Not sure:
Nilp
Nogrod(-1) - don't like his semi-throwaway vote for Gwath yesterday, but other than that, I don't see him suspicious

Not alarmed:
Lal(+1) - a bit confused about her, but not alarmingly
Rikae
Shasta

Probably innocent:
Isabellkya
McCaber
Mith
Nerwen(-2) - posted very innocently today. I had a tendency to completely misinterpret her in the past, but I won't consider that at this point.

[Rikae]

Nilp or McCaber... McCaber or Nilp... hmm....

or perhaps Macalaure, for his misbehavior this morning...

Nah, I'll punish him some other way.

++McCaber

[Nogrod]

Talking about Brinn and apart from what I have said already toDay. Someone asked which were my suspicions of her yesterDay. Well basically the same which Mac pointed out: she was playing it veery carefully and backing up almost everything she said, just like a capable wolf would do - and looking at the fact how few actually have suspected her one might say she has played very successfully. If she's a wolf that is.

My insecurity comes from the fact that I opened my toDay's post on Brinn with Boro's idea of her going after the possible seer Kath last Night. Now as went back the thread I realised the situation was not so straightforwards and Boro's point had misled me on the believability of the initial suggestion.

For that reason I'd hesitate with Brinn a bit more all the time acknowledging that people can suspect a right wolf with wrong reasons as well...

That leaves me Boro to watch even more closely.

And Sally as well. Her many times recounted ations from yesterDay look like trying to save a fellow. I've seen wolves giving the crucial vote to their mate to gain credibility and open saves of a fellow at the last moment so it's no good arguing over whether wolves might generally do such a thing. It's up to whether Sally was doing yesterDay or not.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Forced? tsk-tsk... I already told you the nature of them, testing whether they would hold. And looking at how you will react to them.

Illogical? No way. Sorry. Very much logical indeed (which doeasn't mean they are correct as the premises need to be correct for a deduction to bring forwards a true outcome - and we don't yet know the truth-value of the premises).

Exaggerative? That's in your eyes my friend. I'd like to remind you that the wolves think they're under tons of pressure when they in fact are not.

So you find me suspicious because I have suspected you? Retaliation then? If you're an inocent that's very bad playing. If you're a wolf I'd understand, but a good wolf would also know better if not under a direct death-threat.


Next stops, reconsidering Brinn & looking at Sally...

Quicklike. Sorry, I haven't counted the votes so I really have no idea what's going on in that direction. *mutters and flails again*

See quote above? I read the thread last night and noted that Noggie's been on Gwath like Captain Jack on a TARDIS. I still don't see Gwath's big fault, he looks innocent to me, and it makes me think Nog is grasping at straws. Besides, why kill Gwath? It's the same reason I didn't vote for Captain yesterDay; not enough information from him (although I turned out to be right, dang it! heh) that I felt comfortable killing him. Maybe I'll agree with the case against Gwath at some point, but right now it feels too forced, and the post I quoted doesn't help things.

I'm sorry I couldn't explain more, but I don't want to completely spam you people like ten minutes before DL, so I'll just vote.

++Noggie


EDIT: x'd pretty much since my last post. sorry if I'm a bit muddled

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Maybe I mixed you [Brinniel] up with someone else... I'll have to go back and find the person who said that (I remember thinking it didn't seem reasonable, and less when Nilp echoed it.) (Rikae the not-copier)

Aw, c'mon, Mistress Rikae, that's not the way to get me lynched.

[Nogrod]

Oh Sally... If you're innocent learn the better from this then. You guys lynched me in the last game in just the similar way: when in doubt lynch the one who has been controversial. But is exatly the opposite!

Wolves don't wish to be controversial. They wish to be your buddies and rub you the right way. We need to do the "dirty bussiness" to trigger people into posting seriously - the wolves especially.

[Nerwen]

Running out of time...

++Boro.

EDIT: X'd with Sally and Macalaure.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oh Sally... If you're innocent learn the better from this then. You guys lynched me in the last game in just the similar way: when in doubt lynch the one who has been controversial. But is exatly the opposite!

Wolves don't wish to be controversial. They wish to be your buddies and rub you the right way. We need to do the "dirty bussiness" to trigger people into posting seriously - the wolves especially.

And the last game in which you were a wolf you duped me like no other. Nothing personal, I'm not bitter about it, I just don't want to be fooled again. If you are innocent I'm truly sorry, but I'd rather err on the side of caution than of calamity.

[Nogrod]

I have just totally lost track with Lalwendë. For the most part of the Day I haven't got a clue what she's talking about. I mean why the insistence the wolves are willing to kill her the next Night if not for trying to get the ranger on her?

It might point to cobblerism then, as mentioned. Boro is my other candidate for cobbler but with him I'm a bit hesitant.

And anyway it's wolves we're after in the first place, cobblers should be lynched if we are totally at loss with the wolves and have a good idea of a cobbler.

I still think the points I made on Gwath yesterDay are worth considering but if you are not willing to consider them... then you are not. I'm not going to waste my vote two times in a row so I need to reconsider. But you guys should remember what I said about him when I'm gone.


EDIT: X'd with Nilp and Gwath

[McCaber]

All right, I'm back.

Yeah, I really don't like the way sally posted yesterDay, what with the "suspicion" of the Captain in quite a lot of posts but her vote trying to lead away from his death. (Old news, I know, but I just woke up. Give me a break.)

Between Gwath and Nogrod, I'd be more inclined to vote the latter. But right now I'd rather think they're both innocents looking for wolves in the wrong places.