Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Lalwendë]

I don't really find Sally shady. I think, like Boro, she is (was) a bit all over the place. There's nothing really sinister there.

Nogrod and Gwath are too verbose (that long post of Gwath's was not what I wanted to see on a Sunday morning ). However verbosity can simply be the sign of a cobbler, and wolves might be less chatty to be honest. Either way, it'd be amusing for a wolf to see as they're going to finish each other off if they carry on.

In direct contrast, what about the silent ones?

CoD wasn't over talkative yesterday, nor was Kath, and both of them are dead now. It was worth taking a punt on lynching a quiet one as it turned out yesterday. And as I might be wolf meat tonight anyway, I may decide to take a wild card for my lynch vote and have a punt on someone quiet.

So I'm watching these today: McCaber, Isabellkya, Nerwen, Fea.....with Nilp most likely to be drawn out of my bag for a vote if no obvious wolves turn up.

[Boromir88]

I don't really find Sally shady. I think, like Boro, she is (was) a bit all over the place. There's nothing really sinister there.~Lal

She wasn't all over the place. She consistently said me and Brin were her top suspects, and after the initial "what the heck" reaction to CoD, she defends him several times afterwards.

She tied me with CoD. Mac's vote for CoD broke the 3-way tie and in a cross post, sally voted for me tying it back up. When sally voted she most likely thought she was breaking the tie (even if she didn't assume that she was still diverting from CoD), thus she was making a deliberate effort to save CoD and lynch me.

I admit I didn't think he was a wolf, but I didn't have a "wth" reaction to CoD's vote and then defend him through the rest of the day after saying I would let him be.

He also thinks Brin is the best choice out of the three-way tie, but he hadn't made a case against her, or even really stated why. Why not?~Isabell

Good point, and then he casts a throw away vote for Gwath. Something I'm not used to seeing from Nogrod. I remember back when we were all younger Mith going on about Nogrod's need to stay until the dead line and poll/organize the voting. And Nogrod was doing that yesterday, it's a really nice thing to at least have some order at dead line, if that person isn't a wolf. What's so strange about Nogrod, is after polling around, being involved, trying to see the options (and saying Brin would be the best choice) he chooses to stay out of the action and cast a throw away vote.

I think how he pointed out that the wolves could hide easier in the more random, day one hating days - is odd to me. I think it is just, how he said it.

I don't know how odd that is. Nogrod will say that whether he's a wolf or an innocent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Wolf Feint Theory
If CoD was nominated by one of his fellow wolves as a feint, then it didn't work. And if that was the case, then whichever one of them did it should be clear, because they obviously weren't around at the deadline to save him. That should be easy to work out. There's Mccaber, Isabellkya, Mith and Mac. Any of those not around at deadline should be suspects, going by that hypothesis.

As somebody (Rikae?)has already said, that really doesn't make sense.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Boro cannot be a wolf or he'd have jumped onto one of those bandwagons to save CoD and not randomly voted for moi. He gave no reason to be umming and ahhing and waiting til the end for nefarious reasons, he clearly had no clue.

Or he was waiting to see who else (other than CoD) would get the most votes. Or he's the cobbler. I should have thought both of these possibilities were fairly obvious.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

If Brinn is the wolf then I'm certainly for it tonight. Though of course, if she is not, then I might be anyway, as this will for sure cast her in a bad light if I get wolf-mauled so making me ideal wolf food. Either way, I might be curtains.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

There's nothing odd in pointing out I'm curtains tonight. Kath was the wolves' victim last night, she also voted for Brinn. Sadly it's such an easy kill for them to make to eat me. It will make everyone think "Oh, Brinn must be the wolf! She's killed Kath and Lal." Even if she isn't. Perhaps because she isn't. It's a gift-horse of a smoke-screen.

Why do you keep saying this? How can you know what the wolves are up to?

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

CoD wasn't over talkative yesterday, nor was Kath, and both of them are dead now. It was worth taking a punt on lynching a quiet one as it turned out yesterday. And as I might be wolf meat tonight anyway, I may decide to take a wild card for my lynch vote and have a punt on someone quiet.

I'm never keen on people announcing they're going to vote at random. Yes, innocents do this... but it's such a ridiculously easy way out. Also, what does that first sentence mean? Kath wasn't a wolf!

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As somebody (Rikae?)has already said, that really doesn't make sense.

I don't suppose it would, but then I was pondering some suggestions that another wolf had voted for CoD and what implications it might have. For the record, I don't think a wolf would vote for another wolf, because I've been a wolf before and it doesn't work like that.

Or he was waiting to see who else (other than CoD) would get the most votes. Or he's the cobbler. I should have thought both of these possibilities were fairly obvious.

Yeah, Boro could be a cobbler, as he was all over the place yesterday, but I happen to think he was just a bit keen on getting stuck into the game with nowt to go on.

Why do you keep saying this? How can you know what the wolves are up to?

Again, cause I've been a wolf before. If I was one again I know I'd eat me up tonight.

I'm never keen on people announcing they're going to vote at random. Yes, innocents do this... but it's such a ridiculously easy way out.

I know, yeah.

Also, what does that first sentence mean? Kath wasn't a wolf!

She was quiet yesterday, didn't interact with anyone, therefore was an easy kill for them to make without leaving tracks.

Anyway, enough of the courtroom drama, I might take a punt on not voting for Brinn to be lynched today, despite yesterday's suspicions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

I don't suppose it would, but then I was pondering some suggestions that another wolf had voted for CoD and what implications it might have. For the record, I don't think a wolf would vote for another wolf, because I've been a wolf before and it doesn't work like that.

It does these days, let me tell you!

However, while wolf-on-wolf voting is now quite the thing, I think the circumstances make it less likely than usual this time. If any of the four is a wolf, it's mostly probably a.) McCaber (casts the first vote on CaptainofDespair, when several other people had already been voted– may have thought it a safe way of distancing himself from his fellow) or b.) Mithalwen (may have thought CoD was doomed anyway).

Anyway, you still haven't explained how wolves who had already voted could save their fellow at the deadline.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Again, cause I've been a wolf before. If I was one again I know I'd eat me up tonight.

And I've been a wolf before, and I wouldn't. If all wolves were that predictable, this game would be a lot easier.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

She was quiet yesterday, didn't interact with anyone, therefore was an easy kill for them to make without leaving tracks..

Yes, but you were talking about her in the context of "taking a punt on someone quiet".

[Macalaure]

A bunch of comments while reading along:

Originally Posted by Mith

Kath is a very good player who hadn't been around much. She also wasn't an obvious choice for ranger protection.

I don't agree with the latter part. The chances for a ranger to be successful are never slimmer than in Night 2. (edit for clarity: Mith's claim is correct of course, but I doubt it had a serious part in the wolves' decision)

Originally Posted by Brinn

Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

It surprises me how quickly Brinn went for that latter part. It was something maybe worth remarking, but it was not an especially good point, I think.

I originally didn't think Kath was killed by Brinn. What Nogrod said in #166 is pretty much what my first impression of Brinn's #154 was, too, so I'll just refer to it here.

I can't claim that Brinn's#189 has convinced me any more. A positive thing to remark is, however, that at she doesn't try to dodge Nogrod's accusations or to divert from them.


Gwath's long post about Nogrod looks sincere to me, so I suspect him less right now. I more and more get the impression of two ordos bashing it out until both are lynched.

Originally Posted by Mith

I fully admit I am not the worlds greatest success story as a wolf cf my reply to Boro today but I am not spo rubbish that I would have killed a packmate when there was a three way tie nearly up to the wire and a possibility of a late pact.

Actually, looking at the way everybody seems to take my innocence nearly for granted today, it wouldn't have been such a bad tactic for a Mac- or Mithwolf. A few have pointed out the unlikeliness of a wolf-on-wolf thing and I keep on not agreeing with it. Out of the mouth (or from the fingertips) of a CoD-voter, it doesn't sound good.

I don't feel good about the Fea/Shasta squabble, but I can't make my mind up about which one looks wolvish or whether it's just another ordo-ordo thing.

Originally Posted by Boro

In my post 150 I specifically told Brin to check out my theory that she's a wolf, thought Kath was the seer who dreamed of her, and thus killed her;

This I don't understand. You said, in the same post, that you "genuinely" think Brinn is innocent. Why were you interested in bringing up a wolf-theory about someone you think innocent, even urging the one to defend herself against it? And now you're criticising the ones who didn't think her defense was a good one.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It does these days, let me tell you!

However, while wolf-on-wolf voting is now quite the thing, I think the circumstances make it less likely than usual this time. If any of the four is a wolf, it's mostly probably a.) McCaber (casts the first vote on CaptainofDespair, when several other people had already been voted– may have thought it a safe way of distancing himself from his fellow) or b.) Mithalwen (may have thought CoD was doomed anyway).

Both of those scenarios are disturbingly plausible if there was a wolf-on-wolf vote. McCaber is almost silent in the game and voted early on, while that's the kind of thing Mithalwen would do.

Anyway, you still haven't explained how wolves who had already voted could save their fellow at the deadline.

By retracting and voting Boro. He'd have been a dead man for sure. Which suggests to me that none of that foursome - or at least those who weren't around at deadline time - are wolves. Not Mithalwen then. Though didn't she say something odd to Boro around that time about whether he actually wanted to be lynched?

And I've been a wolf before, and I wouldn't. If all wolves were that predictable, this game would be a lot easier.

True, but then being predictable is a strategy if everyone expects you to be predictable and instead looks up the tricksy strategies

How long until deadline today then? I make it about 3 hours?

I'm thinking of voting for Nilp. Not been around and is very quiet and nobody has mentioned him. What's being hidden?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lal

I'm thinking of voting for Nilp. Not been around and is very quiet and nobody has mentioned him. What's being hidden?

I would discourage that. The chances of being successful with lynching such a quiet one twice in a row are very small.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

By retracting and voting Boro. He'd have been a dead man for sure.

No retractable votes. (See the admin thread.)

EDIT: X'd with Boro and Mac.

[Boromir88]

Alright, so I'm gonna have to vote here...

In all seriousness though, I'd like to apologize to Boromir (and I absolutely hate having to apologize, it gives me indigestion, seriously!)~Shasta

On that note, yay for his death (and an apology Boro; of the people I was considering voting, you kept jumping out at me.)~sally

Two people apologizing they voted for me. Now, I'm only waiting on you Fea.

Alright, Shasta said yesterday if we were both still alive today he would come back and explain in more detail.

So I went back and looked (my Time-Turner finally came! Yay!), and in regards to my vote for Boro yesterday... what I thought was suspicious yesterday is in actuality more fluff. I thought I saw an indirect attack on both Rikae and Fea, but it doesn't look so much like that now.

...Which leads me to believe that it was Boro's latent phantomic tendencies ("hijacking" a discussion? Really?) that caused me to vote him.

Believe it or not, Fea, I actually buy this explanation. I have a tendancy to draw attention on Day 1 (that's partly my intention), and I can see why someone would think my comment about "hijacking the thread," was weird, thus that's as good of a reason as any on Day 1.

The only thing I don't quite get is why wait until today to explain it? You were under time constraints, but you were around at the end, thus could have explained yourself then. Did you want to see the outcome yesterday before giving me an explanation?

sally's apology is a little odder, because I don't get it. If you were trying to apologize for being wrong about CoD, fine, but why to me? I mean I appreciate it, but now I'm wondering who's doing the flattering here. If you were innocent and truly thought I was guilty, I wouldn't expect an apology unless I ended up lynched and proven innocent.

I'm between Gwath, Nogrod, and sally. I don't know if the stuff between Gwath and Nogrod are two innocents running in circles around eachother, or if one's an aggressive wolf. Sally for the reasons I've stated, but with her computer problems today I don't know if I want to vote for her without hearing some more.

edit: crossed with Mac oops and also Lal

[Boromir88]

Hmm...Lal might be creeping back up in my suspicions too. She's been saying some really strange stuff today (constantly saying she's going to be wolf-meat tonight?) Lal is an experienced wolf and I can't pin her behaviour as a wolf. She is making her activity known today, drawing attention to herself, so she could be the cobbler, just out to confuse us and try to turn the discussion away from the people she thinks are wolves.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Two people apologizing they voted for me. Now, I'm only waiting on you Fea.

Don't hold your breath.

I see nothing but off-kilter motives in apologizing in a game where you don't know anything as an ordo. Ordinary villagers don't say "I'm so sorry!" unless they have incontrovertible evidence that they were incredibly wrong. Since a seer has NOT come forward to say that you, Boro, are innocent, then the only way that makes any sense for anybody to apologize to you is if they know your role. Not simply by intuition.

Because I know what I intuitively think you are, but that doesn't mean I'm going to apologize for any attempt I make on your life. 1) it's a game, and it's understood that it's a game. 2) why draw attention to yourself with a conspicuous display of confidence? 3) I'm not going to apologize for voting for you, because I'm highly likely to do it again.

I have to leave for work in a few minutes, and won't be back. That means a vote. And right now I'm tied between Shasta and Boro, for reasons that rationality don't yet support, but which I couldn't forgive myself for not acting on.

Let me shower and I'll vote upon my return...

[Boromir88]

Boromir88: I still see him as sensible and not very supicious. I wonder if that's partly because he's been defending me. Hmm...I have a habit of trusting people who defend me...I better be careful...~Brin

Well, I'm not looking for any sort of alliance (despite what Rikae says ). When I have no sort of gifted information, my only hope of getting a wolf is putting my trust in certain people. I genuinely think I can trust you and Mith, and so far you've done nothing to make me think otherwise. It's not like I'm looking for some sort of tribal pact where we agree not to vote for eachother. I might not agree with who you suspect, you probably don't agree with mine, but generally I trust you're being helpful, in a good way, thus you're innocent. If you're a wolf, congrats you've fooled me, next chance our paths cross we'll see if you can do it again.

Nogrod's known for wild conspiracies/bluffs, but after going back through Brin's posts, I don't even think his suspicions against Brin have made it to the ballpark:

I don't think anyone has said that. But if you're a wolf and saw Kath coming out of the blue just stating her suspicion & vote, you might think she could be the seer. And seers will have to go whatever the cost - even if it means the death of the seer frames one wolf. The seer is too dangerous not to be killed at the first possible instant.~Nogrod

In my post 150 I specifically told Brin to check out my theory that she's a wolf, thought Kath was the seer who dreamed of her, and thus killed her; or the wolves were setting her up. You are referring to Brin's post 154, where she responds to the post I made, specifically asking her what she thought about that theory. Your insistance that Brin brought it up out of nowhere looks strange.

Understandably you feel an urge to purify your name and so you try to come up with every possible reason why the theory doesn't hold. Then you come up with a) I wouldn't kill someone for just voting me & b) and the seer wouldn't have dreamt of me anyway...

Now these surely might be things you could come up with and defend both of them. It's only that bringing them up together looks kind of fishy. I mean if you were an innocent you wouldn't probably think it that way, if you get what I mean.~Nogrod

If you're insinuating that she pre-planned the defense over night, I didn't get that impression at all. It's not like she mentioned this "defense" right off the bat, at the beginning of the day, she responded to me (it looks like about 24 minutes after I had asked).

And to add one small thing more; if you're an innocent why do you speculate about yourself being dreamt of in that fashion? If you're an innocent a seer dream means you're a known innocent by now. It's not something you should be afraid of or in need to convince others that has not happened - or that you would not expect that it has happened...

This really makes no sense, Kath wasn't the seer, and thus Brin was defending herself against my "theory," that she was a wolf and thought Kath was the seer. You're making it sound like she's been stressing "I wouldn't kill someone simply because they voted for me, and I wouldn't be a seer dream on night 1 anyway." If she was, then I'd say you raise a really good point, but the only time she has said her "defense" was when I asked her at the beginning of the day and when you've brought it up again.

Right now I'm unsure about Gwath and Nogrod. I don't like the way Nogrod went after Brin earlier today, because I think it's way out there. But I really don't like Gwath's last post against Nogrod. His primary reasons are from Day 1:

1. Nogrod is inclined to find me guilty because I am making assertions about other people, which I profess to not doing when I am a wolf, playing "low-key."

That's something he said at the beginning of Day 1, and I'm sure he'd admit were pretty weak. I mean you're not going to find any "quality" reasons to vote for someone on Day 1 and this was something Nogrod pointed out early.

2. According to Nogrod, it is strange for me to profess to "thinking on-screen."

Again something Nogrod pointed out early, and I'm not sure how that makes him a wolf.

3. Because I claim to be a low-key wolf, my statement in a later post that I am not trying to fly under the radar - in other words, not trying to play low-key - looks mighty suspicious.

Goes back to the "low-key" argument.

He makes some good points, but I disagree that the wolves HAVE to kill whoever they think the seer is right away, even if it means casting heavy suspicion on a fellow wolf.

Umm, no they do.

Overall: Nogrod banters a bit, makes some good points, posits interesting theories, and seems hell-bent on finding me guilty one way or another.

Yes, a little over-reaction there?

edit: crossed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nogrod's known for wild conspiracies/bluffs, but after going back through Brin's posts, I don't even think his suspicions against Brin have made it to the ballpark:

In my post 150 I specifically told Brin to check out my theory that she's a wolf, thought Kath was the seer who dreamed of her, and thus killed her; or the wolves were setting her up.

I just want to say this: why would a Brinnwolf pick Kath as a possible Seer, anyway? Kath was the third person to suspect Brinn, and the third to vote her. She didn't say anything remotely Seerish, that I noticed.